Split national title

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Some guy said:
Would be really easy to disprove me. Find 3+ examples of one loss teams jumping 0 loss teams in the poll in November/December in the last 20 years
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Your scenario is unique. "If cinci wins out they will win AP national title provided the CFP champ has a loss." You are saying that Cincinnati at 13-0 will be ranked higher than the CFP champion if they have one loss. This scenario has never happened where an undefeated non-playoff team is ranked number 1 in the poll. UCF is the only example and they didn't finish first in the AP. There is no way to disprove you because what you are claiming usually happens has never happened in the CFP era.

If you we want to change what you said to "An undefeated team usually wins the AP number 1 if the BCS NCG winner has one loss". This scenario also never happened. In 2008 Utah went undefeated, wasn't ranked first in the AP and Florida won the NCG with one loss. In 2006 Boise went undefeated and Florida won the NCG with one loss. Those are the only examples of that scenario happening.
 

noamfromm said:
Your scenario is unique. "If cinci wins out they will win AP national title provided the CFP champ has a loss." You are saying that Cincinnati at 13-0 will be ranked higher than the CFP champion if they have one loss. This scenario has never happened where an undefeated non-playoff team is ranked number 1 in the poll. UCF is the only example and they didn't finish first in the AP. There is no way to disprove you because what you are claiming usually happens has never happened in the CFP era.

If you we want to change what you said to "An undefeated team usually wins the AP number 1 if the BCS NCG winner has one loss". This scenario also never happened. In 2008 Utah went undefeated, wasn't ranked first in the AP and Florida won the NCG with one loss. In 2006 Boise went undefeated and Florida won the NCG with one loss. Those are the only examples of that scenario happening.
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I didn’t claim either of the two things you just said I claimed

I did say that if cinci wins out, their number 2 position in the current AP poll puts them in position to win the national title provided the playoff champ has a loss because there is little historical precedent of teams with losses jumping unbeaten teams in the AP poll.

2017 UCF example doesn’t really apply because they were rated 14th in AP. I wouldn’t have claimed they had a shot. They were passed by one team with a loss for a week than UCF passed them again a few weeks later.

2008 yeah was 10th in the first November AP poll. I wouldn’t have claimed they have a shot. Utah was never passed by a team with a loss after that November poll


What gives cinci a chance is that they’re already number 2 in the AP poll. If Georgia lost to Missouri this week, cinci would likely be number one. The AP poll behaves differently than the CFP poll
 
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Some guy said:
Found 1
In 2017 the November 6 poll Penn state had two losses and jumped UCF.

neither team lost a game and UCF jumped back over Penn state by the end of the year.
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The OP that started this debate wasn't "has a one loss team ever jumped an undefeated team in the last half of the AP Poll". It was an undefeated team will win the AP national title over a CFP (or possible NCG) champ with one loss.
 

Some guy said:
I didn’t claim either of the two things you just said I claimed
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I directly quoted you. What were you claiming when you said "If cinci wins out they will win AP national title provided the CFP champ has a loss."
 

noamfromm said:
The OP that started this debate wasn't "has a one loss team ever jumped an undefeated team in the last half of the AP Poll". It was an undefeated team will win the AP national title over a CFP (or possible NCG) champ with one loss.
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I said they would.

And no one ever claimed they did. Or tried to claim there is a history of that happening. I’m saying it’s happening this year.
 


noamfromm said:
I directly quoted you. What were you claiming when you said "If cinci wins out they will win AP national title provided the CFP champ has a loss."
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And I stand by that statement

and I don’t say it because it has happened before
 

Some guy said:
And I stand by that statement

and I don’t say it because it has happened before
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Your OP was "If cinci wins out they will win AP national title provided the CFP champ has a loss." I asked why you thought that would be the case. You responded with "Because they’re already number 2 and that’s the way the AP poll usually behaves". Talking about usual behavior necessitates something happening previous so that you can know what is usual.

Thank you for clarifying your thought process.
 

noamfromm said:
Your OP was "If cinci wins out they will win AP national title provided the CFP champ has a loss." I asked why you thought that would be the case. You responded with "Because they’re already number 2 and that’s the way the AP poll usually behaves". Talking about usual behavior necessitates something happening previous so that you can know what is usual.

Thank you for clarifying your thought process.
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I am not saying it usually behaves that way by giving unbeaten teams AP titles if the CFP Champion wins the title but has a loss

I am saying historically an unbeaten top 25 team doesn’t get jumped in November by a team with a loss.

Doesn’t matter if you are talking about a number 3 rated unbeaten or a number 17 rated unbeaten. Teams with zero losses typically don’t get jumped in the AP poll in November unless it’s by another unbeaten team. I would bet money it has happened less than 10 times in 40 years. So cinci being #2 in AP poll and unbeaten makes it hard for Oregon, Ohio state, Alabama to jump them
 

Some guy said:
I am not saying it usually behaves that way by giving unbeaten teams AP titles if the CFP Champion wins the title but has a loss

I am saying historically an unbeaten top 25 team doesn’t get jumped in November by a team with a loss.

Doesn’t matter if you are talking about a number 3 rated unbeaten or a number 17 rated unbeaten. Teams with zero losses typically don’t get jumped in the AP poll in November unless it’s by another unbeaten team. I would bet money it has happened less than 10 times in 40 years. So cinci being #2 in AP poll and unbeaten makes it hard for Oregon, Ohio state, Alabama to jump them
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Understood. This is the first year that a G5 team has been ranked so highly so it will be the first test of the principle. In all the other years Utah, Boise and UCF climbed through the rankings other than being so high at this point. I think the opposite happens where the CFP will award the AP number 1 to the CFP champion, which has happened every year of the CFP and happened every year except 2003 of the BCS NCG.
 



noamfromm said:
Understood. This is the first year that a G5 team has been ranked so highly so it will be the first test of the principle. In all the other years Utah, Boise and UCF climbed through the rankings other than being so high at this point. I think the opposite happens where the CFP will award the AP number 1 to the CFP champion, which has happened every year of the CFP and happened every year except 2003 of the BCS NCG.
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But the only year that an AP top 2 team wasn’t in the BCS or CFP was 2003

So 1/1 times that happened there was a split title
 

Some guy said:
But the only year that an AP top 2 team wasn’t in the BCS or CFP was 2003

So 1/1 times that happened there was a split title
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You are right there -- but in that scenario the team that won the AP national title wasn't the 2nd ranked team going into the BCS NCG. If Cincinnati can make it to number one by final poll I think you are right. If they are still number two, I think it gets awarded to the CFP champion. Lastly, Cincinnati's G5 status is not going to help it as no undefeated G5 has ever been AP number 1.
 

noamfromm said:
You are right there -- but in that scenario the team that won the AP national title wasn't the 2nd ranked team going into the BCS NCG. If Cincinnati can make it to number one by final poll I think you are right. If they are still number two, I think it gets awarded to the CFP champion. Lastly, Cincinnati's G5 status is not going to help it as no undefeated G5 has ever been AP number 1.
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BYU was AP #1 in 1984
USF was #2 for a time in 2007

G5 didn’t exist as a concept until 2014
So that’s a pretty short history…but yes you are right
 

Some guy said:
BYU was AP #1 in 1984
USF was #2 for a time in 2007

G5 didn’t exist as a concept until 2014
So that’s a pretty short history…but yes you are right
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The G5 argument is weak I concede. The 2007 USF one is unique as that was such a year of chaos. Once the preseason favorites started losing so many teams got over their skis and were rated much too highly throughout that middle part of the season.

Through this lively (mainly my misunderstanding of your exact point 😉) -- I think we see that if you are AP number 1 going into bowl season and remain undefeated, a la BYU and USC, you can still be the AP number 1 at the end of the year. This year will be a great test to your postulate that an undefeated team going into bowl season at number 2 can become the number 1 and not be jumped by the CFP winner (not being an undefeated Georgia). Because the split title scenario only happened with the AP's number 1 not being in the BCS NCG or with their champion being one of multiple undefeated teams.
 



If Cinci was in the SEC or B10, it would already have a couple of losses. This issue comes up periodically and SOS usually disqualifies the Cinderella team shunned by the selectors. Both AP and coaches' polls will go with the playoff winner, so there will be no split championship.
 

My thought on the G5 schools remains the same as it always has been. If the G5 conferences are so inferior that, not only does NEVER LOSING A GAME FOR A FULL SEASON not guarantee you a spot in the CFP invitational tournament, but it seems like it will never get you a spot in it, then the G5 schools should be considered so inferior that P5 schools should not be allowed to schedule them for official games that count towards their record (and bowl eligibility). I think the same thing about FCS schools. If the point of competitive sports is to win games, then losing a game should be a prerequisite to not being a champion.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
My thought on the G5 schools remains the same as it always has been. If the G5 conferences are so inferior that, not only does NEVER LOSING A GAME FOR A FULL SEASON not guarantee you a spot in the CFP invitational tournament, but it seems like it will never get you a spot in it, then the G5 schools should be considered so inferior that P5 schools should not be allowed to schedule them for official games that count towards their record (and bowl eligibility). I think the same thing about FCS schools. If the point of competitive sports is to win games, then losing a game should be a prerequisite to not being a champion.
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I get your point about undefeated G5's -- but are you saying in your last point that teams that only undefeated teams should be champions. I.e. some years we would be without a champion?
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
If Cinci was in the SEC or B10, it would already have a couple of losses. This issue comes up periodically and SOS usually disqualifies the Cinderella team shunned by the selectors. Both AP and coaches' polls will go with the playoff winner, so there will be no split championship.
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You don't know any of these things to be true. It's speculation.
 

noamfromm said:
I get your point about undefeated G5's -- but are you saying in your last point that teams that only undefeated teams should be champions. I.e. some years we would be without a champion?
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I phrased it poorly, but no, that's not what I'm saying. That's the converse. I'm not saying going undefeated should be a prerequisite to being the champion, I'm saying that the system needs to be structured in a way that if you never lose, you are the champion.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
If Cinci was in the SEC or B10, it would already have a couple of losses. This issue comes up periodically and SOS usually disqualifies the Cinderella team shunned by the selectors. Both AP and coaches' polls will go with the playoff winner, so there will be no split championship.
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Wasn’t true in 1984
 

Some guy said:
Cinci is number 2
If Georgia wins the SEC it knocks Bama out of contention to jump them.
So if Georgia wins the SEC and some lower team wins the playoff where cinci is left out by the committee….

It opens the door to a split national title. Which I’m jazzed about. It’s what makes college football great.
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No such thing now.
 


Some guy said:
The AP is not bound to pick the CFP champ. As they weren’t bound to pick the BCS champ
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I see you’re keeping your ridiculous thread alive. You and Frostie must be thick as thieves.
 


Alabama gained ground this week.
I guess running for 7 yards against a 4-5 team is impressive?

Hurts the chances. I do think Georgia beats Alabama and eliminates Alabama. Pro Alabama bias makes it easier for them to pass cinci than any other team.
 

Some guy said:
Alabama gained ground this week.
I guess running for 7 yards against a 4-5 team is impressive?

Hurts the chances. I do think Georgia beats Alabama and eliminates Alabama. Pro Alabama bias makes it easier for them to pass cinci than any other team.
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Alabama continued to gain ground and in fact passed cinci.

the possible split national title probably involves

1) A non SEC or Ohio state winning playoff (like Oregon, ok state, Notre dame) OR 2 loss Bama winning national title
2) cinci not making the playoff
3) cinci finishing unbeaten


took a big hit this weekend for two reasons:
1) Bama jumped them in the polls (although probably always needed Bama to not finish with just one loss)
2) I think the likelihood of cinci in the playoff is high
 

Any poll that votes Cinci #1, if they don't make the playoff, would be proving themselves illegitimate and not worth taking seriously.

Hopefully, Cinci won't make the playoff. They don't deserve it.
 

Major hit this week. Ohio state jumped Bama and Cinci

Also the biggest hit was Oregon losing as Cinci is probably in the playoff if they finish unbeaten now…
 

Some guy said:
Alabama gained ground this week.
I guess running for 7 yards against a 4-5 team is impressive?

Hurts the chances. I do think Georgia beats Alabama and eliminates Alabama. Pro Alabama bias makes it easier for them to pass cinci than any other team.
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I hope Georgia destroys Alabama...
 

I know we are all just supposed to bow down the mighty SEC when it comes to strength of schedule, but if you honestly look at GA - their sole win vs. a currently ranked team is Arkansas (#25). Of course, when they beat Clemson, everyone assumed Clemson would be good - same with Florida, etc. The reality is that those teams turned out to be bad - so, as of today - who has a stronger win, Cincy or GA? For me, Cincy's win over ND is better. Now, if GA beats Bama, then they have 2 good wins. But, if GA loses to Bama - do they really deserve to be ranked ahead of CIncy? At some point, losses matter and you should be punished for it.
 

csom_1991 said:
I know we are all just supposed to bow down the mighty SEC when it comes to strength of schedule, but if you honestly look at GA - their sole win vs. a currently ranked team is Arkansas (#25). Of course, when they beat Clemson, everyone assumed Clemson would be good - same with Florida, etc. The reality is that those teams turned out to be bad - so, as of today - who has a stronger win, Cincy or GA? For me, Cincy's win over ND is better. Now, if GA beats Bama, then they have 2 good wins. But, if GA loses to Bama - do they really deserve to be ranked ahead of CIncy? At some point, losses matter and you should be punished for it.
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100% agree with you. Also, if Georgia loses to Alabama, they might be top 4 in the country…but by nature of not being the best in the league they signed up to play in, they can’t be the best team in the country. So even if they are the second best team in the country and even if cinci is the 10th best team in the country, I am in favor of putting in teams who might be 6th and might be 1st than teams who definitely aren’t first but are probably second or third:

fivethirtyeight.com

The College Football Playoff Committee Is Answering The Wrong Question

Before losing to Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinals, Notre Dame was widely considered one of the four best teams in the country. However, you’d …
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
 

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