Souhan: Gophers, conference led by voices of reason and safety, instead of the selfish and greedy

[forever a gopher]

We know a lot more about the problems associated with a vaccine than with Covid. Do not make uninformed assumptions because they sound good. Look it up.

We do? We know more about a non-existent (as of now) vaccine than a virus that countless scientists have been studying for upwards 6 months? Are you related to Bill Gates?

We know who is at risk with the virus. And it ain't young, healthy people. The instances of myocarditis (sp?) are obviously worth tracking and researching. Do the symptoms last longer than other respiratory viruses that also see this condition? As of now, the severe instances of this in young, healthy people are on the level of anecdotal.

 

[USAF]

If you think that college football players are as likely to follow safety protocols if they are not "in the bubble" I don't know what to tell you. Absolutely not gonna happen. A moment's honest thought is enough to come to that obvious conclusion.

They were never in a bubble, and weren't going to be in a bubble.

Every precaution the schools were going to take, could be taken anyway, regardless of a season.

 

[GopherGod]

So far there is at least 10 B1G players that have Myocarditis. That is under the controlled atmosphere of training camps where everyone is tested and quarantined. That shuts down an elite athlete for at least 3 months. The rate of Myocarditis is much greater with Covid than with a normal virus infection.

Covid-19 is NOT the flu. Anyone who makes that comparison is showing their ignorance of the facts. Please do some reading so you can make truly informed conclusions.

So far there is at least 10 B1G players that have Myocarditis. That is under the controlled atmosphere of training camps where everyone is tested and quarantined. That shuts down an elite athlete for at least 3 months. The rate of Myocarditis is much greater with Covid than with a normal virus infection.

Covid-19 is NOT the flu. Anyone who makes that comparison is showing their ignorance of the facts. Please do some reading so you can make truly informed conclusions.

Just a Mayo cardiologist.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Aren't you the same people telling me that I should take an unproven vaccine as soon as it's available with no long term trials? I'm guessing if I tell you in massive bold print when the vaccine is available that I don't want to take it because I don't know the long-term effects of it, you'll label me an anti-vaccer.

Well, yeah, but.

I am very pro vaccine but there are forces conspiring to rush this thing. Do it right.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I am not minimizing the seriousness of COVID-19 (it’s a disaster) but if we redo that graphic with the under 55 yo cohort does it look different?

 

[Pompous Elitist]

If you think that college football players are as likely to follow safety protocols if they are not "in the bubble" I don't know what to tell you. Absolutely not gonna happen. A moment's honest thought is enough to come to that obvious conclusion.

Agree. Idle hands are dangerous.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

We know a lot more about the problems associated with a vaccine than with Covid. Do not make uninformed assumptions because they sound good. Look it up.

You don’t seem to know much about the immune system.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I believe liability played a HUGE factor here, but as somebody mentioned above, the B1G stands to lose nearly a BILLION dollars by not playing this season. I don't know how much the lawyers predicted each school would stand to lose in lawsuits if they did play, but I'm guessing this was a tougher decision than many have made it out to be, and that most administrators won't be sleeping well for quite some time.

It’s a tax write off. They have insurance. /s channeling Mpls

If the lawyers and physicians framed it in such a way as to mimic the concussion lawsuits with the NFL and the amount poured into that fund to address lawsuits and ongoing health concerns it’s one thing. However, Kevin Warren was never able to articulate what information the Big Ten consultant physicians are privy to in terms of what they know that the rest of us don’t know. To my knowledge they are mostly leaning on the report out of Germany which was a smaller study with some issues.

In medical malpractice claims the plaintiffs have to prove that the physician acted far outside of accepted practices of the average community physician in the same specialty in the care of the plaintiff. If best practices or accepted practices AT THE TIME OF CARE are just emerging, debatable, or not settled it is very difficult to prove negligence. This is more difficult than some think. The other conferences are obviously hearing conflicting opinions from their medical consultants because the science is far from settled or known. There are hints, at best. One case series or paper is not definitive.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

While I’m (sort of) ranting on vaccines every vaccine trial participant in the US will sign an informed consent/waiver explaining the known and possibly unknown complications, adverse effects. The same goes for every novel surgical procedure, medication. Informed adults are educated on risks and they can choose to participate or not participate on their own free agency. They are 18+ year old adults we trust to vote and do other adult things.

Why were the players, coaches, associated staff not offered an opportunity to sit down for an indoctrination of every known and potentially unknown adverse effect of COVID-19 including various inflammatory ailments, encephalitis, cardiac disease, sudden cardiac death, pneumonia, multi organ system failure, amputation, sepsis, neuropathy and on and on. Block a couple hours. List the known incident rates, risk factors, racial predilections, etc.

I suspect some would opt out at a one in a million risk or one in 100,000. Others probably like their odds if it’s a 1 in 10 chance. Take a poll at the end of the session.

 

[Gopher028]

Use a more accurate graphic, please. Emphasis on 2009

2009 Flu Pandemic Was 10 Times More Deadly Than Previously Thought

A fresh analysis finds that the death toll from the H1N1 swine flu in 2009-10 was severely underestimated. The Americas were hit much harder than Europe or Australia. And the deaths occurred in a much younger population than normally affected by the flu.

www.npr.org

Your 12,469 is far closer to 125,000, (60.8 million infected) The initial number was because the administration at that time greatly reduced testing for the virus 3 months after it went pandemic. 125,000 were just H1N1 deaths, not including regular seasonal flu deaths that year. Together they eclipsed covid19 deaths, and remember, in 2009 we packed TCFBS in it's opening game vs Air Force, we didn't cancel the the B1G season..........

Facts

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Cardiologists scrutinize the paper that helped lead to the cancellation.

 

[Go4Broke]

H1N1 swine flu

Use a more accurate graphic, please. Emphasis on 2009

2009 Flu Pandemic Was 10 Times More Deadly Than Previously Thought

A fresh analysis finds that the death toll from the H1N1 swine flu in 2009-10 was severely underestimated. The Americas were hit much harder than Europe or Australia. And the deaths occurred in a much younger population than normally affected by the flu.

www.npr.org

Your 12,469 is far closer to 125,000, (60.8 million infected) The initial number was because the administration at that time greatly reduced testing for the virus 3 months after it went pandemic. 125,000 were just H1N1 deaths, not including regular seasonal flu deaths that year. Together they eclipsed covid19 deaths, and remember, in 2009 we packed TCFBS in it's opening game vs Air Force, we didn't cancel the the B1G season..........

Facts

When we're finally done with Covid-19 (if ever) you're 125,000 number for H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic in 2009, plus the number of deaths for seasonal flu that year, is going to be rather puny by comparison to what's coming in the next year or two.

Furthermore, the Swine Flu Pandemic of 2009 was not Seasonal Flu which is what Science Deniers have been comparing Covid-19 to since March.

Finally, your NPR article uses Mike Osterholm as a source who is still on record as saying 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans will die of Covid-19 without an effective and readily available vaccine. In this June article, https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/, Osterholm said the following:

• There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.
• We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.
• We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.
• There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection. Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.
• The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.

So, we’re really confronted with having this virus in our population for months to years ahead if we don’t get a successful vaccine. So to answer your question of how we are going to get to that 60 or 70%, that’s what we don’t know. We’ve never had a coronavirus pandemic infection like this. It may have happened centuries ago, but we didn’t see it.

We don’t know what happens to the virus and it is not just based on season — it’s always just after a few months. In every instance the virus came back with a second wave. And when that happened, usually three to four months after that initial wave was over, it tended to be much, much more severe.

This is not just the 1918 pandemic because even in 2009 with H1N1, we saw that same thing happening with a much less severe pandemic. We saw an early Spring peak of cases when it first emerged in March, April, and May. Then it disappeared and came back in late August / early September and then took off with a peak in October. So that’s one model that could happen. But because this is a coronavirus [not an influenza virus], we don’t know what might happen for sure.


More facts from CDC Website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Estimated Range of Annual Burden of Flu in the U.S. since 2010

The burden of influenza disease in the United States can vary widely and is determined by a number of factors including the characteristics of circulating viruses, the timing of the season, how well the vaccine is working to protect against illness, and how many people got vaccinated. While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year.

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Sports medicine MD weighs in

A Doctor's Look at the Heart Condition Linked to COVID-19 That Has Impacted the Decision to Cancel Fall Sports

Myocarditis has been a cited catalyst for the cancellation of the fall college football season, but it wasn't new and the medical community was prepared to handle it.

www.elevenwarriors.com

 

[LakerFan]

The B1G and PAC reversed for one reason and one reason only. Players were showing signs of solidarity and that was quickly going to turn from "We want input on safety issues" to "We want compensation to play" By shutting down the season they remove the threat (for now) that players would be in a position to hold college football hostage to get what they want. COVID safety was a rallying point for the players that would have brought the kind of solidarity that pay-to-play hasn't been able to generate on it's own.

B1G is hiding behind made up medical concerns that didn't magically appear in the short window between when they announced a season, saw players start to organize and in a panic met behind closed doors with the other power 5 members to try to put out the fire before it got started.

 

[upnorthkid]

Sports medicine MD weighs in

A Doctor's Look at the Heart Condition Linked to COVID-19 That Has Impacted the Decision to Cancel Fall Sports

Myocarditis has been a cited catalyst for the cancellation of the fall college football season, but it wasn't new and the medical community was prepared to handle it.

www.elevenwarriors.com

He enjoys talking out of both sides of his mouth

"I want to emphasize how much I agree that one life, one long-term heart condition, is far too high a price to pay for football. My stance is not “this is rare, so let’s take the risk and see how it goes.” Far from it.

Rather, I feel the college football medical world was ready to handle this risk and successfully navigate it. It’s what we are trained for. We are champions of athlete safety. That’s why starting quarterbacks are held out if they’re concussed, or if they have mono (risk of spleen rupture), or if their injury isn’t strong enough yet for them to be able to protect themselves in full contact. We don’t cut corners with athlete wellbeing, and risks related to COVID-19 are no exception."

Well if you're saying getting even one case is not worth it, then you should be saying we should shut it down not that we should handle the risk. I agree with the overall notion that shutting down the season based on this paper (which looks like weak evidence at this time that may be fraudulent) is not good use of science and would hope this wasn't the only thing (would perhaps argue they're saying there seems to be more and more data all the time that we have no idea what the long term effects are). All I'm saying is, if youre trying to argue that you think anyone getting a heart condition from football is too high, well we don't know that and you shouldn't "navigate the risk" if you're going to try say that line previously. Then you should be arguing for indefinite postponement until we know, not using it to try manipulate your opinion to make it seem like you care more (I'm not saying he doesn't care, but it is using the appeal to emotion).

 

[Mulligan]

The B1G and PAC reversed for one reason and one reason only. Players were showing signs of solidarity and that was quickly going to turn from "We want input on safety issues" to "We want compensation to play" By shutting down the season they remove the threat (for now) that players would be in a position to hold college football hostage to get what they want. COVID safety was a rallying point for the players that would have brought the kind of solidarity that pay-to-play hasn't been able to generate on it's own.

B1G is hiding behind made up medical concerns that didn't magically appear in the short window between when they announced a season, saw players start to organize and in a panic met behind closed doors with the other power 5 members to try to put out the fire before it got started.

Yes, it's all about players unionizing and the two conferences in the most liberal areas of the country are doing pre-emptive union busting. While the conferences in the conservative areas have no concerns about players forming a union. Love conspiracy theories.

BTW, about those players? Interesting development today at Florida State where players are basically accusing the school of being dishonest. If any helmet school has a player who gets sick and has serious complications, all hell will break loose if/when a parent pushes it.

 

[tikited]

The fact that Souhan thinks it’s a good idea is pretty much proof that the decision was the product of horrible leadership.

You make a good point.

 

[LakerFan]

Yes, it's all about players unionizing and the two conferences in the most liberal areas of the country are doing pre-emptive union busting. While the conferences in the conservative areas have no concerns about players forming a union. Love conspiracy theories.

BTW, about those players? Interesting development today at Florida State where players are basically accusing the school of being dishonest. If any helmet school has a player who gets sick and has serious complications, all hell will break loose if/when a parent pushes it.

Schedules got released and a day later the PAC-12 Players had a ransom note including 50% revenue sharing. It makes sense that PAC-12 and Big-10 start this in liberal areas, because unionizing is liberal. If the SEC players would have had it that together they would have cancelled already too.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Use a more accurate graphic, please. Emphasis on 2009

2009 Flu Pandemic Was 10 Times More Deadly Than Previously Thought

A fresh analysis finds that the death toll from the H1N1 swine flu in 2009-10 was severely underestimated. The Americas were hit much harder than Europe or Australia. And the deaths occurred in a much younger population than normally affected by the flu.

www.npr.org

Your 12,469 is far closer to 125,000, (60.8 million infected) The initial number was because the administration at that time greatly reduced testing for the virus 3 months after it went pandemic. 125,000 were just H1N1 deaths, not including regular seasonal flu deaths that year. Together they eclipsed covid19 deaths, and remember, in 2009 we packed TCFBS in it's opening game vs Air Force, we didn't cancel the the B1G season..........

Facts

The article you posted is talking about numbers globally. The US estimate is still around 12-13K.

 

[NotAFanOfBecky]

Cardiologists scrutinize the paper that helped lead to the cancellation.

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing!

 

[Gopher028]

The article you posted is talking about numbers globally. The US estimate is still around 12-13K.

Incorrect, the numbers I posted were the very inaccurate total that was given at the time X10, as the article states all cases and deaths were ten times worse than is being put out there.
Is that politics? Or sheer ignorance of the facts? Maybe both.. seemed to be a theme at the time.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

H1N1 swine flu


When we're finally done with Covid-19 (if ever) you're 125,000 number for H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic in 2009, plus the number of deaths for seasonal flu that year, is going to be rather puny by comparison to what's coming in the next year or two.

Furthermore, the Swine Flu Pandemic of 2009 was not Seasonal Flu which is what Science Deniers have been comparing Covid-19 to since March.

Finally, your NPR article uses Mike Osterholm as a source who is still on record as saying 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans will die of Covid-19 without an effective and readily available vaccine. In this June article, https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/c...op-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/, Osterholm said the following:

• There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.
• We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.
• We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.
• There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection. Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.
• The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.

So, we’re really confronted with having this virus in our population for months to years ahead if we don’t get a successful vaccine. So to answer your question of how we are going to get to that 60 or 70%, that’s what we don’t know. We’ve never had a coronavirus pandemic infection like this. It may have happened centuries ago, but we didn’t see it.

We don’t know what happens to the virus and it is not just based on season — it’s always just after a few months. In every instance the virus came back with a second wave. And when that happened, usually three to four months after that initial wave was over, it tended to be much, much more severe.

This is not just the 1918 pandemic because even in 2009 with H1N1, we saw that same thing happening with a much less severe pandemic. We saw an early Spring peak of cases when it first emerged in March, April, and May. Then it disappeared and came back in late August / early September and then took off with a peak in October. So that’s one model that could happen. But because this is a coronavirus [not an influenza virus], we don’t know what might happen for sure.


More facts from CDC Website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Estimated Range of Annual Burden of Flu in the U.S. since 2010

The burden of influenza disease in the United States can vary widely and is determined by a number of factors including the characteristics of circulating viruses, the timing of the season, how well the vaccine is working to protect against illness, and how many people got vaccinated. While the impact of flu varies, it places a substantial burden on the health of people in the United States each year.

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

It’s pretty clear past doesn’t predict future. Personally I’ve had my fill of faulty assumptions.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

He enjoys talking out of both sides of his mouth

"I want to emphasize how much I agree that one life, one long-term heart condition, is far too high a price to pay for football. My stance is not “this is rare, so let’s take the risk and see how it goes.” Far from it.

Rather, I feel the college football medical world was ready to handle this risk and successfully navigate it. It’s what we are trained for. We are champions of athlete safety. That’s why starting quarterbacks are held out if they’re concussed, or if they have mono (risk of spleen rupture), or if their injury isn’t strong enough yet for them to be able to protect themselves in full contact. We don’t cut corners with athlete wellbeing, and risks related to COVID-19 are no exception."

Well if you're saying getting even one case is not worth it, then you should be saying we should shut it down not that we should handle the risk. I agree with the overall notion that shutting down the season based on this paper (which looks like weak evidence at this time that may be fraudulent) is not good use of science and would hope this wasn't the only thing (would perhaps argue they're saying there seems to be more and more data all the time that we have no idea what the long term effects are). All I'm saying is, if youre trying to argue that you think anyone getting a heart condition from football is too high, well we don't know that and you shouldn't "navigate the risk" if you're going to try say that line previously. Then you should be arguing for indefinite postponement until we know, not using it to try manipulate your opinion to make it seem like you care more (I'm not saying he doesn't care, but it is using the appeal to emotion).

Yeah, that segment was a little pompous. Obviously there will never be zero risk training for or playing a game like football, or zero risk resulting from a myriad of infections. We don’t have any reliable surveys of the incidence or severity of myocarditis resulting from COV2 yet, whether it’s more cardiotropic than others. Maybe, probably, and more concerning because of the large numbers? If so that is potentially troubling for the rest of the student body and general population, and they won’t have access to the personal attention, constant testing and screening the football players were subjected to..

The best bet for football was an aggressive push to get frequent testing some way some how, and player buy-in on a “bubble”. The former never happened for unknown reasons whether logistical, financial, leadership disinterest or competing agenda. I think they were really just hoping cases would dwindle to low levels which wasn’t what I would call an aggressive plan.

 

[Herd]

Yes, they did.... if their objective was to cover their a$$es and prevent any risk of a lawsuit, then this was a great decision. There will be some minor consequences like the execution of some non-revenue sports, mangling part of the college experience for students, and actually making our players less safe from Corona virus. That said, we sure won't get sued and administrators at the BIG schools can sleep well at night, knowing that they are safe and secure in their positions. It also has the side benefit of allowing us to be more virtuous and caring than our counterparts in the SEC. It feels so good to be morally superior. Incredibly bold and decisive leadership. #Icoveredmybutt

How far are B1G administrators going to go to continue covering their asses and reducing risk? Are they going to go all the way to destroying themselves, or just most of the way. You call this bold leadership? They are assuming the fetal position. NE not wanting to follow the lemmings over the cliff was understandable. Their criticism, predictable.

 

[upnorthkid]

Yeah, that segment was a little pompous. Obviously there will never be zero risk training for or playing a game like football, or zero risk resulting from a myriad of infections. We don’t have any reliable surveys of the incidence or severity of myocarditis resulting from COV2 yet, whether it’s more cardiotropic than others. Maybe, probably, and more concerning because of the large numbers? If so that is potentially troubling for the rest of the student body and general population, and they won’t have access to the personal attention, constant testing and screening the football players were subjected to..

The best bet for football was an aggressive push to get frequent testing some way some how, and player buy-in on a “bubble”. The former never happened for unknown reasons whether logistical, financial, leadership disinterest or competing agenda. I think they were really just hoping cases would dwindle to low levels which wasn’t what I would call an aggressive plan.

yep exactly

And agreed on your second point. They needed to get aggressive and make a plan. They didn't and now this is the only truly safe option left when there's so much they don't know and no way to enact a bubble this late in the game.

 

[upnorthkid]

How far are B1G administrators going to go to continue covering their asses and reducing risk? Are they going to go all the way to destroying themselves, or just most of the way. You call this bold leadership? They are assuming the fetal position. NE not wanting to follow the lemmings over the cliff was understandable. Their criticism, predictable.

I'm sure all the B10 Universities will have no money left in the coffers to put a team back on the field in the coming years.
No one outside of the East Coast is wanting to play right now as you likely know based on your hundreds of phone calls and that no one is wanting to schedule NDSU right now. It's not like this is a B10 thing. This is a risk aversion thing that has swept the vast majority of the nation already. But hey at least we're nailing this over 1000 deaths/day thing while placing priority on playing a game. There's too much unknown and we did a horseshit job of controlling this back in March, hence why we're here right now where we are.
I can't wait until these teams start trying to play. Someone is going to get a case somewhere. Do you cancel that game? Just not let the player play? What if its Lawrence for Clemson who gets it? What happens if the walkon who feels forced to play to make coach happy gets sick and is one of the unfortunate ones who needs to get placed on a vent? The B10 did a shit job planning for that this was a possibility. Now they either take the moderate loss or push to have a season with the potential benefit being small/moderate and risk being massive. We'll see whether the risk aversion strategy was a wise one or was too risk averse. Some will say, as the Dr. PE quoted, that no case of serious illness happening to allow football to play is justified, some will say it doesn't matter if 10 kids off each team got a mild troponin leak for a few weeks and maybe one has slightly worse heart function. I don't envy the person who has to balance all that and make a choice that probably feels like there's no right answer and there's no way to please everyone.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Incorrect, the numbers I posted were the very inaccurate total that was given at the time X10, as the article states all cases and deaths were ten times worse than is being put out there.
Is that politics? Or sheer ignorance of the facts? Maybe both.. seemed to be a theme at the time.

The article was looking at worldwide confirmed cases being at just around 18K and that this number was likely at least 10 times higher. Most places now estimate 200K+ deaths worldwide. The US estimate is at about 12K. I'm pretty sure people would have noticed if 125K died from this in the US.

 

[alchemy2u]

Yes, we still do not have enough info on the exact implications of Covid19 on myocarditis, but we do have some information about the an increase in incidents. Couple that with the problems of keeping the players on all teams in a bubble and the willingness of players to "what ever it takes" to appease their coaches. You have a formula for disaster. It is only wise to error on the side of caution instead of waiting for a pile of body bags to confirm the correlation.

The B1G and the PAC12 have some very well respected medical minds at their disposal. Do you really think that if they thought is was save to play football that they would let the threat of a few lawsuits (which would be minor since it is safe to play) convince then to throw away billions in revenue? Get real, they can do risk analysis assessments.

 

[alchemy2u]

Yeah, that segment was a little pompous. Obviously there will never be zero risk training for or playing a game like football, or zero risk resulting from a myriad of infections. We don’t have any reliable surveys of the incidence or severity of myocarditis resulting from COV2 yet, whether it’s more cardiotropic than others. Maybe, probably, and more concerning because of the large numbers? If so that is potentially troubling for the rest of the student body and general population, and they won’t have access to the personal attention, constant testing and screening the football players were subjected to..

The best bet for football was an aggressive push to get frequent testing some way some how, and player buy-in on a “bubble”. The former never happened for unknown reasons whether logistical, financial, leadership disinterest or competing agenda. I think they were really just hoping cases would dwindle to low levels which wasn’t what I would call an aggressive plan.

That is only as good as the integrity of each individual program. Look at FSU and how they won't even tell the players the results of the tests, lie about how many tests are being conducted and tell players who test positive to keep their mouth shut.

 

[GophersInIowa]

Not a good look if true. Would be an automatic "no thank you" to the coach if I were a parent of a recruit.