Someone help me understand B1G preseason steam on wisky/iowa

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Ole

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I am amazed at the predictions and preseason expectations for our two rivals.
I realize I'm a gopher fan and that somehow makes me view the skunks and pigeons with hate glasses, but what am I missing?

Preseason prognosticators are basing things off of known commodities, obviously past history plays in here(see 100th Ferentz team overachieves article).
I see major issues with both of these teams:
Wisky:
Loses Top 3 pass catchers, expected to start player at QB who was a safety last year.
Abberderis/Pederson/White/Stave WAS their offense last year.
Tell me how that passing attack is somehow now not the worst in the league until proven commodities step forward?

Gordon has proven nothing as a feature back, absolutely nothing. He has never ran for more than 91 yards against a B1G team not named Indiana, Purdue, NW, or Illinois bedsides his 300 yard jet sweep performance against nebraska in 2012.
I maintain he's a flashy player but he will struggle to carry the ball through a B1G season as the bell cow. Look at the game logs from last year, James White was the reason wisky was successful on the ground last year.

Loses front 7, including defensive all everything Borland. Loses top defensive back.
Things can be schemed on defense to adjust for inexperience and youth, but good lord. The B1G is a league that still required strength, experience, and run stopping from front 7 defenders.

Has special teams issues at K and P.

Iowa- Better, but still. Has an OK offense last year, now is lauded.
Weisman rushed for a gaudy 108 carries for 360 yards after he played us last year.
They lose their NFL TE.
Defense loses 3 NFL linebackers.
See B1G front 7 rant from before.
Key wins late in the year against Michigan and Nebraska, and didn't crap the bed against LSU.

It's just hard to see how these two are expected to be the best of the west.
 

Ole, I find that after reading your posts I either agree with them completely or at least want to believe them. In this case, I will put this one in the "want to believe" category. I am often leery of the assumptions that the loss of great players from top programs somehow means their replacements will suck. Good programs typically replace good graduated players with equally good underclassmen. That is why they are top programs.
 

I can see why Wiscy gets the benefit of the doubt since they stringed together 4-5 really good years but i really don't know why Iowa is expected to do so much better than us. They did smoke us the last 2 years but we were both 8 win teams and we return slightly more starters than they do and we will probably have more impact freshman coming in at the skill positions than they do. They only won 4 games in 2012 so its not like they have always been good like Wiscy plus we get them at our place. I agree that Wisconsin won't be nearly as good with their receivers and front 7 graduating however they have quite an easy schedule. I do disagree completely with what you said about Gordon however. If anything Gordon should be slightly more durable than White as he has a few pounds on him plus Clement has a few pounds on both of them. They are studs.
 

Take a look at each of their schedules, then you'll know why.
 

die hard gopher said:
I do disagree completely with what you said about Gordon however. If anything Gordon should be slightly more durable than White as he has a few pounds on him plus Clement has a few pounds on both of them. They are studs.
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I don't see it. Look at the game logs. Gordon's best performance ever was probably against ASU last year(remember that game, HA!), his second best was probably against SC in the bowl but still, he has not proven himself to be anything more than what we all hope Berkely Edwards will be for us, a home run threat.
Clement also has proven nothing, unless his game against Indiana impressed you.

I'm not even bringing our team into this, I just see flaws that somehow are not being discussed in the media that cover the B1G.

If it's all schedule, then fine i guess, but then you'd think we'd hear about a "weak" west division cruising through the season and getting embarrassed by the east champ.
 


josh087 said:
Take a look at each of their schedules, then you'll know why.
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Exactly. There's a good chance that UW will be the underdog in only one game all season, and that's a neutral site game in Houston. After that, they will probably be favored to win out. They could be a slight underdog at Iowa, but that's not a lock.

Geaux Tigers!!
 

1,600 yards, 12 TDs and a 7.8 average is a far cry from what we hope Berkley Edwards will become. He was the projected #1 back in the draft last year and would have been an early second rounder. Also 547 yards on 67 carries with 7 TDs and over an 8 yards per carry is a far cry from unproven. We have seen plenty of him to know he has outstanding speed and solid power.
 

die hard gopher said:
1,600 yards, 12 TDs and a 7.8 average is a far cry from what we hope Berkley Edwards will become. He was the projected #1 back in the draft last year and would have been an early second rounder. Also 547 yards on 67 carries with 7 TDs and over an 8 yards per carry is a far cry from unproven. We have seen plenty of him to know he has outstanding speed and solid power.
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I'm just saying, look at Gordon's numbers more closely. He lacks IMO against top B1G defenses.

Clement ran for exactly 1 yard against anyone that had a winning record last season.
On 2 carries.
 




Here's my take:

Iowa- they return most of their offense, including some really good O-lineman, Rudock, Weisman, Martin-Manley. Their offense will be better. On defense, they return the entire D-line, a few DBs, but lose all three linebackers. The issue most of us Gopher fans can't understand, because we haven't had it in a while, is that good teams have depth. The 3 LBs they lost were really good, so good that their back-ups might have been good but still didn't start. If you look at our back-up LBs, probably Rallis, Laster, and tbd?, they are all young and have basically no experience. I don't know what Iowa's back-up LBs are like, but chances are they have more experience than our back-ups. So given what Iowa is returning, I'd expect them to be at least as good, if not better than last year.

Wisky- they can flat out run the ball. Gordon is dynamic, he ran for what, 1500 yards last year? Clement might be even better. Yes, their passing game is suspect, but other than when they rented Wilson for a year, when hasn't it? Their defense loses a ton of starters, but when you look at their schedule, it's hard to imagine a scenario where they don't win 9 games. Their first 5 B1G games are @NW, Illinois, Maryland, @Rutgers, @Purdue. They get Nebraska and us at home. The only 2 games they probably won't be favored in all year are LSU and @ Iowa.
 

I could run for 1000 yards behind Wisconsin offensive line, and I'm not kidding. I might be short a couple acls and my faculties but...point remains.

Speed is only one part of the equation. The elite RBs make something out of nothing. Think Barry Sanders crazy moves. Then look at someone like Trent Richardson that benefitted from the Bama offensive line and has been a bust when asked to compete on a level playing field.

Gordon and clement were highly rated out of high school, so I would expect them to be good. What makes them elite is the wisky oline IMO.
 

Ole said:
Gordon has proven nothing as a feature back, absolutely nothing. He has never ran for more than 91 yards against a B1G team not named Indiana, Purdue, NW, or Illinois bedsides his 300 yard jet sweep performance against nebraska in 2012.
I maintain he's a flashy player but he will struggle to carry the ball through a B1G season as the bell cow. Look at the game logs from last year, James White was the reason wisky was successful on the ground last year.
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So if I understand you correctly, if you throw out every game in which he ran for over 100 yards, his average yards per game is below 100 yards? Stellar analysis.

In the 4 big ten games you've allowed to be used, he ran for 5.2 ypc. Add in ASU, BYU and USC games, and it was 6.2 ypc. 6.6 ypc agains Ap ranked teams, 7.2 ypc in conference.

He was the second string back, low yards per game were due to splitting carries, not lack of effectiveness.
 

The Team to the East needs to replace the entire front seven on defense. They lost 7 starters and close to 300 tackles. Their Coach at the Big 10 Media Day stated that last year they had 3 defensive packages, this year they will rely on athleticism and pre snap disquise. It will require 7 or more packages. This doesn't sound like a defense.

The team to the South needs to replace 3 linebackers.


And all the press is questioning if we can replace Hagemann and Vareen.
 



GhostofBronko said:
So if I understand you correctly, if you throw out every game in which he ran for over 100 yards, his average yards per game is below 100 yards? Stellar analysis.

In the 4 big ten games you've allowed to be used, he ran for 5.2 ypc. Add in ASU, BYU and USC games, and it was 6.2 ypc. 6.6 ypc agains Ap ranked teams, 7.2 ypc in conference.

He was the second string back, low yards per game were due to splitting carries, not lack of effectiveness.
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Why is the troll Becky fan allowed to continue posting here?
 

husker70 said:
The Team to the East needs to replace the entire front seven on defense. They lost 7 starters and close to 300 tackles. Their Coach at the Big 10 Media Day stated that last year they had 3 defensive packages, this year they will rely on athleticism and pre snap disquise. It will require 7 or more packages. This doesn't sound like a defense.

The team to the South needs to replace 3 linebackers.


And all the press is questioning if we can replace Hagemann and Vareen.
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Probably because, historically, we do not have two defensive players drafted in the draft that often. Especially, with their talent levels.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Why is the troll Becky fan allowed to continue posting here?
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Somebody contradicted a ridiculous post! He must be a troll! Again, I'm the fourth or fifth person to question his disparagement of Gordon. Where's the trolling?

You seem mentally unbalanced.
 

GhostofBronko said:
Somebody contradicted a ridiculous post! He must be a troll! Again, I'm the fourth or fifth person to question his disparagement of Gordon. Where's the trolling?
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The fact that you post almost exclusively in Becky fans, while exclusively complimenting Becky, is what makes you a troll.

GhostofBronko said:
You seem mentally unbalanced.
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Says the Becky fan trolling for attention on a Gopher fan board.
 

dpodoll68 said:
The fact that you post almost exclusively in Becky fans, while exclusively complimenting Becky, is what makes you a troll.
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Presenting an accurate picture of how good a RB Gordon is, is not "complimenting" the Badgers.

P.S. What you describe isn't what trolling is, anyway.

dpodoll68 said:
Says the Becky fan trolling for attention on a Gopher fan board.
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Please stop paying attention to me, seriously.
 




GhostofBronko said:
So if I understand you correctly, if you throw out every game in which he ran for over 100 yards, his average yards per game is below 100 yards? Stellar analysis.

In the 4 big ten games you've allowed to be used, he ran for 5.2 ypc. Add in ASU, BYU and USC games, and it was 6.2 ypc. 6.6 ypc agains Ap ranked teams, 7.2 ypc in conference.

He was the second string back, low yards per game were due to splitting carries, not lack of effectiveness.
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I removed games against nonconference opponents and weak B1G defenses. They(you), didn't lean on him in those games directly due to his ineffectiveness. He ate up Tenn Tech, UMass, NW, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois though.
He was not a second string back, he had 15 less carries than White for the season.
I question his durability as a #1 guy, and his effectiveness against opponents that aren't terrible.
 

Both are flawed teams, but likely the best in our half of the conference. I just hope LSU takes care of business so we don't have to sweat the badgers making the 4 team playoff. I sincerely hope that the badger defense if truly awful and that is their downfall this year, but I just don't know if anyone will be able to stop their running attack (really I can't comprehend criticizing Gordon - of all the parts of their team not to believe in, Gordon isn't one of them). I feel like they could be similar to the high-end Mason team(s) to go along with a very favorable schedule.

As for Iowa, I was really impressed with their QB last year but I don't think they can beat UW AND I think they lose to us. I think they'll end up 2nd/3rd based on what they do against Nebraska.
 

dpodoll68 said:
He tried to throw a couple "we"s in today and yesterday. It was adorable - like a baby deer trying to stand for the first time.
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LOL - He must be a graduate of The P---Hawk School of Trolling. That is exactly what he would do on the Strib blog. Probably he was never not in graduate school at P---Hawk though since, as you have pointed out, he is not that good.
 

Ole said:
I removed games against nonconference opponents and weak B1G defenses. They(you), didn't lean on him in those games directly due to his ineffectiveness. He ate up Tenn Tech, UMass, NW, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois though.
He was not a second string back, he had 15 less carries than White for the season.
I question his durability as a #1 guy, and his effectiveness against opponents that aren't terrible.
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what back do you know that doesn't do worse against better defenses? the best backs destroy the cupcakes and gordon has done quite well in many big games he has played against good teams. just look at the south carolina box to see it. really a stupid argument on your part. he i really good or the pros would haven't rated him the best back in the draft had he come out.
 

Ole said:
I removed games against nonconference opponents and weak B1G defenses. They(you), didn't lean on him in those games directly due to his ineffectiveness. He ate up Tenn Tech, UMass, NW, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois though.
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I get removing UMass and TTU as outliers, but why remove ASU, BYU or USC? Each of these teams had a better Rushing YPG defense than some of the four conference teams you decided to include. BYU was the 3rd best Rushing D they faced, and ASU was the 4th. Even NW had a better Rushing YPG defense than one of the teams you felt should be included (I won't say which one because I don't want to get the crazies too excited). He had a worse game against BYU than he did OSU. I'd submit that your exclusion is because Gordon had a monster game against ASU, (and a very good game against USC) and you need to exclude it to make your theory work.

Ole said:
He was not a second string back, he had 15 less carries than White for the season.
I question his durability as a #1 guy, and his effectiveness against opponents that aren't terrible.
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So he was a #1 guy last year and piled up huge stats, but you question his durability as a #1 back this season? Do you see the flaw in your "logic?"
 

GhostofBronko said:
I get removing UMass and TTU as outliers, but why remove ASU, BYU or USC? Each of these teams had a better Rushing YPG defense than some of the four conference teams you decided to include. BYU was the 3rd best Rushing D they faced, and ASU was the 4th. Even NW had a better Rushing YPG defense than one of the teams you felt should be included (I won't say which one because I don't want to get the crazies too excited). He had a worse game against BYU than he did OSU. I'd submit that your exclusion is because Gordon had a monster game against ASU, (and a very good game against USC) and you need to exclude it to make your theory work.



So he was a #1 guy last year and piled up huge stats, but you question his durability as a #1 back this season? Do you see the flaw in your "logic?"
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Meh, I think B1G defenses are tougher against the run than other conferences, especially in the later months when weather can be an issue. Maybe I've overrated the tradition of the B1G running games/defenses.

He split carries, which took pressure off of him, he was 1A/1B. Unless you're expecting Clement to carry 200+ times this season, I think it's fair to expect Gordon to get the lion's share against the B1G schedule, 240 carries? 260? 290?
I'm just doubting that he keeps up his health, flash, and gaudy YPC under those circumstances, and I'll submit that James White was the most underrated player in the B1G during his career. White made Gordon alot better, as did Abberderis.


I think I've found where my confusion on wisky's preseason hype comes from though. I was somewhat impressed by Gordon last year, but certainly not to the point where most must hold him. To me he's a nice back with speed, not a Heisman candidate.
 

otisflowers said:
what back do you know that doesn't do worse against better defenses? the best backs destroy the cupcakes and gordon has done quite well in many big games he has played against good teams. just look at the south carolina box to see it. really a stupid argument on your part. he i really good or the pros would haven't rated him the best back in the draft had he come out.
Click to expand...

I'll assume you sent this via mobile with one hand while mushroom stamping Chadima.
 


GhostofBronko said:
Somebody contradicted a ridiculous post! He must be a troll! Again, I'm the fourth or fifth person to question his disparagement of Gordon. Where's the trolling?

You seem mentally unbalanced.
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Maybe it's because 90% of your posts are down on Minnesota and/or promoting the Flock of Budgies. Other than that, I can't figure it.

Easy enough even for a Wisconsin grad to analyze. You appear to either be a crappy fan, or a badly performing "disguise a-troll".

If you'd like to re-torture yourself: GhostOfBronko posts.

Welcome to the ignore list.
 

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