So what are the realistic odds we can land our local phenom, Tyus Jone?

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Why do we need to put an arbitrary percentage on it? Trying to put a percentage on each team is an incredibly futile effort. For now the Gophers are one of 7 teams that have a shot at him and that will have to be good enough for the time being. FWIW I do think that we are still firmly in the mix for Tyus but if I had to guess I'd say he goes elsewhere.
 

afurry91 said:
So on what basis are you assuming that one school has a 0% chance? And on what basis are you assuming that Minnesota is that school with a 0% chance. Why don't we use common sense and assume that each school has a 12.5% chance of landing Tyus. It is better to assume equal odds than to incorrectly assume weighted odds due to the nearly infinite amount of different weighted scenarios without a shred of evidence from Tyus saying that he is leaning one way or the other. There is no evidence. He has only said good things about every school on that list. He says he loves Duke. He says he loves Minnesota. He says he love Tom Izzo. In every interview conducted he has been nothing but a brick wall.

EDIT: My bad. You weren't assuming one school has a 0% chance. You just can't count to 8.
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My basis is a vague familiarity with how a normal human makes a decision between multiple available attractive options. It's not better to assume equal odds because that assumption is naive. He might like every school on his list, but, undoubtedly, he likes some more than others. I have no idea how you can assume he likes each school exactly equally, other than lip service quotes from that are issued by every recruit, ever.

So let's go with your thought and assume every school has the same chance. How is Tyus supposed to eliminate a single school (let alone 7), when he's exactly equally as interested in each school? Do you actually think Baylor has as much of a chance as MSU?

And where did I say MN has a lower chance than other schools? I said he must favor some schools over others, but there's enough to believe that MN is on the better half of that divide.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to start figuring out what I want for dinner. Chinese, Greek, cheeseburgers, pizza, pasta, sushi, and steak are all in a 7-way dead heat with no discernible leader or preference at all.
 

It's a Pig Man! said:
Why do we need to put an arbitrary percentage on it? Trying to put a percentage on each team is an incredibly futile effort. For now the Gophers are one of 8 teams that have a shot at him and that will have to be good enough for the time being. FWIW I do think that we are still firmly in the mix for Tyus but if I had to guess I'd say he goes elsewhere.
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There's an 82.8324% chance I agree with this.
 

Realistically Tyus shouldn't eliminate the Gophers unless he is absolutely sure he doesn't want to go there. Its an easy place for him to go. He knows the coaches, the area, the players and his family is nearby. A huge percentage of college students go to a school that is nearby, so it wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay. Also, its not like the nearby school is Idaho, its a Big Ten program that plays some of the top teams in the country.

Also, someone mentioned that no matter what school a guy is at, they will find you. This is very true. Look at the players that have come out of mid-majors the past few years and the hype some guys have from mid-majors right now. The kid from Creighton (can't remember his name), Wolters from SDSU, etc. Basketball is to the point where they find kids at the smallest high schools and colleges, if they can play.
 

khoffman43 said:
Realistically Tyus shouldn't eliminate the Gophers unless he is absolutely sure he doesn't want to go there. Its an easy place for him to go. He knows the coaches, the area, the players and his family is nearby. A huge percentage of college students go to a school that is nearby, so it wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay. Also, its not like the nearby school is Idaho, its a Big Ten program that plays some of the top teams in the country.

Also, someone mentioned that no matter what school a guy is at, they will find you. This is very true. Look at the players that have come out of mid-majors the past few years and the hype some guys have from mid-majors right now. The kid from Creighton (can't remember his name), Wolters from SDSU, etc. Basketball is to the point where they find kids at the smallest high schools and colleges, if they can play.
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Doug McDermott
 


khoffman43 said:
Realistically Tyus shouldn't eliminate the Gophers unless he is absolutely sure he doesn't want to go there. Its an easy place for him to go. He knows the coaches, the area, the players and his family is nearby. A huge percentage of college students go to a school that is nearby, so it wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay. Also, its not like the nearby school is Idaho, its a Big Ten program that plays some of the top teams in the country.

Also, someone mentioned that no matter what school a guy is at, they will find you. This is very true. Look at the players that have come out of mid-majors the past few years and the hype some guys have from mid-majors right now. The kid from Creighton (can't remember his name), Wolters from SDSU, etc. Basketball is to the point where they find kids at the smallest high schools and colleges, if they can play.
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Weber State just produced Damien Lillard who is so far looking like one of the best picks of the draft.
 

Dr.Don said:
OK, Madman...Simple Math, my friend. If you have a 4 inch weenie, the chances of pissing on your fingers are 25%.


OK.... Just got done tallying the numbers Doc.... I piss on my fingers exactly 8.33333%.... What that means???... go figure.
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Marcus tweet:

"Wouldn't count #Gophers totally out of the mix. But I think Duke and Mich St are in real good shape with Tyus right now."
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