So what are the realistic odds we can land our local phenom, Tyus Jone?

[Bob_Loblaw]

I think the comparison between Zeller and Jones is way off. . .

Indiana is one of the most prestigious basketball school's in the entire country. Even when down, they are like a Notre Dame. They'll be able to recruit and will almost always do well with Indiana kids.

They also have recruited really well for awhile. That class with Watford, Creek and Hulls was around top 10. The class with Eric Gordon was considered top 10 in the country.

Indiana is the basketball equivelent to a helmet school.

 

[MRJ]

That doesn't make what you're saying any less ridiculous.

It's just an opinion. You have yours and I have mine. I'm simply not counting on the kid. If that's too much for you to handle, too bad.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

It's just an opinion. You have yours and I have mine. I'm simply not counting on the kid. If that's too much for you to handle, too bad.

You have a pretty harsh opinion of the kid, imo. If I had to guess, you form opinions based off of nothing, imo.

It's just an opinion, right? So now I get to say whatever I want, right?

 

[MRJ]

You have a pretty harsh opinion of the kid, imo. If I had to guess, you form opinions based on nothing, imo.

It's just an opinion, right? So now I get to say whatever I want, right?

Go ahead. It's just my opinion Thats what message boards are for. If you don't agree with me, that's perfectly fine. But if you want to continue tantruming, feel free. That's apparently also what message boards are for (at least in your case).

 

[Winasota Gopher]

Never would have guessed

Is Minnesota having a good season helpful to recruiting? Sure. However, I think people really overvalue it, especially postseason performance.. there isn't some simple checklist where a S16 appearance catapults a team on every kid's list. Granted, it may be very important for a few kids, but I think most are more forward thinking and thoughtful than that.

I think you overestimate the "forward thinking " of today's youth.....

Ill consider giving you that winning this year wont help on Tyus. But to suggest that tournament success has no factor on a kids decision is wacky in my mind. College athletics is like a brand, the more you see it in a positive light (tournament time) the better the opinion. That stuff is "stackable" in that seeing UofM in any postseason play, then seeing positive press on the U followed by recruiting interest forms a positive first impression on the target. Simple marketing really.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

I think you overestimate the "forward thinking " of today's youth.....

Ill consider giving you that winning this year wont help on Tyus. But to suggest that tournament success has no factor on a kids decision is wacky in my mind.

I think you misread my post... it started out, "Is Minnesota having a good season helpful to recruiting? Sure."

At any rate, the forward thinking and thoughtful comment is more complex than "today's youth" in this situation. Remember, we are talking about young men who are being recruited and sold on different programs. They are looking at things from multiple angles, as are their parents/guardians, friends, others.. they are not using a simple checklist where "S16 in 201x-1x!!!" is a deal-sealer.

Again, I'm saying that some people overvalue winning a game or two in the NCAA tournament in one specific year. I'm in no way suggesting that tournament success has no factor on a kid's decision.

 

[HOOP DREAMS]

I think you misread my post...

Maybe u wrote poorly. Stay on late night hoops, what a joke of a blog. Keep tweeting everyone and their mothers ur stories.

 

[Parski1]

Our chances of getting Tyus are 50/50... Nobody has a clue what this kid is thinking and he's done a good job at keeping it that way.

 

[Dr.Don]

Our chances of getting Tyus are 50/50... Nobody has a clue what this kid is thinking and he's done a good job at keeping it that way.

That is what I stated in post #4 of this thread. Any other guesses are nothing but gas.

 

[SonOfTheVarsity]

50-50, Either he will or he won't.

That is where it is at right now. Anything else is pure speculation with no basis.

There's also then a 50-50 chance that tomorrow will be 75 and sunny. Because either it will be 75 and sunny, or it won't.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

There's also then a 50-50 chance that tomorrow will be 75 and sunny. Because either it will be 75 and sunny, or it won't.

Not even remotely close to a legitimate comparison.

What quotes from Tyus or anyone for that matter do you have that have him swaying one way or the other? You have nothing, therefore we have as good of a chance as the other 7 schools until he narrows it down to 5, then 3, then chooses. Whether by pity or legitimate interest, we will most likely be in his top 3, but you can bet he won't play his hand before he has too.

Nice try though.

I'm sure he doesn't know this, but if he has no intention of going here. He is better off telling us now than by stringing us along for another year. The backlash would be greatly reduced, and fans would hate him less than if he keeps us in the mix till the final day.

 

[Dr.Don]

There's also then a 50-50 chance that tomorrow will be 75 and sunny. Because either it will be 75 and sunny, or it won't.

Now you are starting to get the hint, Son.

Only your babble is with nature, mine is with a human being.

 

[scher215]

Not even remotely close to a legitimate comparison.

What quotes from Tyus or anyone for that matter do you have that have him swaying one way or the other? You have nothing, therefore we have as good of a chance as the other 7 schools until he narrows it down to 5, then 3, then chooses. Whether by pity or legitimate interest, we will most likely be in his top 3, but you can bet he won't play his hand before he has too.

Nice try though.

I'm sure he doesn't know this, but if he has no intention of going here. He is better off telling us now than by stringing us along for another year. The backlash would be greatly reduced, and fans would hate him less than if he keeps us in the mix till the final day.

If he ultimately chooses a school not named Minnesota, fans will have no idea if Minnesota was "strung along" or not and to assume we were only in there as a pity vote would not be a fair assumption to make. To dislike Tyus for a stupid assumption would be just as ridiculous. For all we'd know, Gophers could actually be his number 2 and he ultimately picks UK. I'd just trust if he keeps the Gophers in his list that it is for legitimate reasons and not to make us feel better.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

If he ultimately chooses a school not named Minnesota, fans will have no idea if Minnesota was "strung along" or not and to assume we were only in there as a pity vote would not be a fair assumption to make. To dislike Tyus for a stupid assumption would be just as ridiculous. For all we'd know, Gophers could actually be his number 2 and he ultimately picks UK. I'd just trust if he keeps the Gophers in his list that it is for legitimate reasons and not to make us feel better.

O I can hate him for going to UK. Just like I hate the other 15 players on their roster. It's nothing personal to Tyus, but if he goes to UK, he will be hated.

 

[Madman]

50/50????

50/50??? Where does that come from??? Id say 12.5% if there are still a total of 8 schools on his list. It's simple math my friends.

 

[Gold Vision]

50/50??? Where does that come from??? Id say 12.5% if there are still a total of 8 schools on his list. It's simple math my friends.

Our "Dr." friend has a tough time grasping that concept.

Apparently there is a 50 percent chance I'll win the lottery, either I will or I won't.

 

[bemidjigopher]

well what see there are eight schools and if our chances are all equal than we're sitting at about a 12.5% chance lol. In all seriousness I won't complain about landing Mr. Jones he will be a great player and will go on to the NBA, but he will be a one and done so to me it's not the end of world if he doesn't come here, I think Vaughn and Travis are more important to building a program as they're likely to stay atleast two years, Travis I think is a four year player, but hey like all of you I'm just speculating

 

[Dr.Don]

50/50??? Where does that come from??? Id say 12.5% if there are still a total of 8 schools on his list. It's simple math my friends.

OK, Madman...Simple Math, my friend. If you have a 4 inch weenie, the chances of pissing on your fingers are 25%. Do not argue Simple Mathematics with Dr.Don.

You obviously have no knowledge of Experimental Probability versus Theoretical Probability. Try again, rookie.

 

[scher215]

O I can hate him for going to UK. Just like I hate the other 15 players on their roster. It's nothing personal to Tyus, but if he goes to UK, he will be hated.

That works. I just mean it'd be unfair to "hate" Tyus for stringing along the Gopher when we'd have no clue if he actually did that it not. You'd know he committed to UK and if you want to hate all UK players, by all means have at it. That hatred is at least based on a fact at least.

 

[dboy]

since this is the new tyus thread...
here is my 10cents worth:

'ol roy gets nothing out of his talent... so UNC is out.
same for baylor... they are out.
duke has no offense.. 4 shooter jacking 3's and one 'big' chases rebounds. so duke is out.
if you are staying in the big10, and not staying home, the only 'feel good' choice is Izzo... so OSU is out.
Kentucky does not have the same Midwest feel that Kansas does ( just ask Cole Aldrich ). Kentucky is out.

final 3:
MSU
Kansas
Minnie

for Don:
odds he goes to MSU or not: 50/50
odds he goes to Kansas or not: 50/50
odds he goes to Minnie or not: 50/50.

 

[GophersInIowa]

No chance. He's keeping us on his list because it will keep the locals interested imo. If I had to guess, he'll commit to one of the big boys and then give a bunch of canned responses during the ensuing interview.

I'm curious why you think that? What would be the benefit of him "keeping the locals interested"?

 

[MRJ]

I'm curious why you think that? What would be the benefit of him "keeping the locals interested"?

Two reasons. One, it keeps Gopher fans in the area clamoring to see him play and giving him attention. Admittedly, he'd be getting plenty of attention anyway because he's a top recruit nationally. But keeping the Gophers on his list rather than eliminating them immediately keeps everybody in the local area, including Gopher fans, more interested. It also keeps the "stay home" crowd from getting on his case. Therefore, everybody is happy and really excited until he makes his choice. Second, it gives him a secondary or even a third option if something falls through with the big boys. Saw this happen with Humphries and Rickert specifically. I probably should have been more specific in my wording, about "local interest" but that's what I was referring to.

Of course, all of this is just an opinion on my part. It's a possibility that he's actually considering Minnesota heavily. And I would be very happy if he picked the U. But I'm certainly not going to get my hopes up just because we're the hometown school.

 

[station19]

I'm curious why you think that? What would be the benefit of him "keeping the locals interested"?

So what about this hypothetical; Tyus really has no interest in going to the U and doesn't want to string them along to the bitter end yet doesn't want to appear as though he never even considered MN. If he narrows the list to 8 or 9 with no MN, that says he never really never considered the U. If he announces top 3 without MN....he doesn't 'string MN along' but yet he did consider MN.

Just wondering out-loud.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

How about this one:

Minnesota is home and while the basketball program isn't his favorite, he feels that he may want to stay near home and therefore is listing it as a realistic option because it is. Perhaps not very likely, but a realistic option. No games, no marketing ploy, just listing it because he'll continue to consider Minnesota.

 

[khoffman43]

I'm late to the party on this, but oh well.

First off, Tyus probably isn't a one and done type of player. He is not the same electric player that Derrick Rose is/was. His game is better appreciated over the course of a career, not 1 game. I live near Apple Valley and have copious amounts of free-time so I saw him play about a dozen times last year, including games in St. Cloud, vs. Lakeville North, @ Eastview, vs. Onalaska and many other lesser games. He is a brilliant play-maker on a team devoid of similar talent. He can carry the load offensively, lock guys down defensively and is the best player I have ever seen in Minnesota (high school that is)

Second, he is incredibly close to his family. His younger brother is his shadow and Tyus shows him a lot of love. They are constantly talking, laughing, tweeting, going to games together, etc. I have seen him at other high school games with his little brother, and no one else is around. With his brother being younger would he stay here to watch his high school career and allow his brother to attend every home game of his college career? I don't know, but its worth considering.

Finally, Tyus seems like a pretty level-headed kid. He doesn't seem to let the hype get to him and I have never heard anything bad about him. He doesn't talk back to his coaches (even though he is use to higher level coaching) and he doesn't yell at teammates. I think the only issue I have seen is that he gets frustrated with his teammates because they will miss lay-ups or drop passes that turn into points for the other team, but I think that is to be expected since he is such a high level player and the majority of his team is not. This might make him tentative to commit to a huge personality coach like Calipari.

I have no idea if Tyus will be a Gopher but I appreciate watching him. I think it would help the Gophers chances if Jones, Reid Travis and Rashad Vaughn played AAU together for Howard Pulley and traveled the country together. It would give them the chance to be teammates, and hopefully decide to remain teammates in college.

In terms of odds I would think the Gophers are in his actual top 5 right (MSU, UNC, Duke, Minnesota, Kansas) now but its hard to know. He is a junior and has plenty of time left to figure it out.
Please feel free to rip this apart as you see fit.

 

[scher215]

How about this one:

Minnesota is home and while the basketball program isn't his favorite, he feels that he may want to stay near home and therefore is listing it as a realistic option because it is. Perhaps not very likely, but a realistic option. No games, no marketing ploy, just listing it because he'll continue to consider Minnesota.

Agreed.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

In addition to what you said khoffman43, his little brother is a huge Gopher fan.

 

[Minnesconsin fan]

In addition to what you said khoffman43, his little brother is a huge Gopher fan.

i like this angle- if we use Wally Ellenson to hopefully recruit his younger brother Henry, we can use Tyus' younger brother to help recruit Tyus. Have Coach Kill call him up, according to tweets from Tyus, the little brother tears it up on the football field.

 

[SonOfTheVarsity]

Not even remotely close to a legitimate comparison.

What quotes from Tyus or anyone for that matter do you have that have him swaying one way or the other? You have nothing, therefore we have as good of a chance as the other 7 schools until he narrows it down to 5, then 3, then chooses. Whether by pity or legitimate interest, we will most likely be in his top 3, but you can bet he won't play his hand before he has too.

Nice try though.

I'm sure he doesn't know this, but if he has no intention of going here. He is better off telling us now than by stringing us along for another year. The backlash would be greatly reduced, and fans would hate him less than if he keeps us in the mix till the final day.

Hey, thanks for the lecture! Tell me, what evidence do you have that Tyus is some sort of automaton that equally distributes interest among all available options? You have nothing, therefore it's safe to use common sense and assume the seven schools remaining on his list don't all have an identical ~14.28 percent chance to land Tyus.

He has to be favoring some options over others, and there's plenty of evidence to project which ways he might be leaning. Not nearly enough to project where he'll end up, but enough to make guesses about which schools might be in the lead. Luckily, enough of that evidence points to the Gophers to keep us, for now, firmly in the discussion.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

Hey, thanks for the lecture! Tell me, what evidence do you have that Tyus is some sort of automaton that equally distributes interest among all available options? You have nothing, therefore it's safe to use common sense and assume the seven schools remaining on his list don't all have an identical ~14.28 percent chance to land Tyus.

He has to be favoring some options over others, and there's plenty of evidence to project which ways he might be leaning. Not nearly enough to project where he'll end up, but enough to make guesses about which schools might be in the lead. Luckily, enough of that evidence points to the Gophers to keep us, for now, firmly in the discussion.

So on what basis are you assuming that one school has a 0% chance? And on what basis are you assuming that Minnesota is that school with a 0% chance. Why don't we use common sense and assume that each school has a 12.5% chance of landing Tyus. It is better to assume equal odds than to incorrectly assume weighted odds due to the nearly infinite amount of different weighted scenarios without a shred of evidence from Tyus saying that he is leaning one way or the other. There is no evidence. He has only said good things about every school on that list. He says he loves Duke. He says he loves Minnesota. He says he love Tom Izzo. In every interview conducted he has been nothing but a brick wall.

EDIT: My bad. You weren't assuming one school has a 0% chance. You just can't count to 8.