Shooter: It’s beginning to look like Mark Coyle made the right hire in PJ Fleck

Donate To GopherHole
It’s silly argument, that I’m sure no one believes except me.

That’s OK, it’s the offseason.
 

You’re the one arguing coaching doesn’t matter except it terms of recruiting (if I’m reading you right). There are so many examples of that not being true in terms of under and over achieving recruiting rankings it’s hard to know where to start. Saban and Dabo didn’t walk into top recruiting classes - they worked their way up to number 1 or 2 or 3 by winning. Meyer at OSU. That’s another team I expect/hope will start to fade a little the next couple years. We’ll see.

I think most everyone would agree a teams rolling recruiting average has to be in the top 20 (eg like Clemson a few years back) to be a serious contender and probably the most important positions are the lines and some places seem have more linemen blue chippers than others but the rankings are far from perfect or free of bias...

I don’t like the attitude where you’re beat before you even play the game. Big Ten championships are realistic goals, nattys would be way down the road 8-10 years or more if ever but a guy like PJ can recruit. Can he win?
 

I think am going to wait until Fleck picks up his 2nd Big 10 win on the road before deciding he is the right hire.
 

Ope3 said:
I think am going to wait until Fleck picks up his 2nd Big 10 win on the road before deciding he is the right hire.
Click to expand...

The Big Ten opener @ Purdue is very significant. If Gophers are legit at all, that's a game they win. If postgame West Lafayette includes Heather on the field mugging for the cameras, the guys have done their job.

Gophers need to set a the right tone right away vs. Purdue. The non-conference games won't provide much of an opportunity to do that, should be 3 relatively easy Ws.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Big Ten opener @ Purdue is very significant. If Gophers are legit at all, that's a game they win. If postgame West Lafayette includes Heather on the field mugging for the cameras, the guys have done their job.

Gophers need to set a the right tone right away vs. Purdue. The non-conference games won't provide much of an opportunity to do that, should be 3 relatively easy Ws.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the team is the real deal if they breeze through non-conference and then put a convincing win down against Purdue. I really want to see the Gophs 5-0 when Nebraska comes to TCF....
 


SelectionSunday said:
The Big Ten opener @ Purdue is very significant. If Gophers are legit at all, that's a game they win. If postgame West Lafayette includes Heather on the field mugging for the cameras, the guys have done their job.

Gophers need to set a the right tone right away vs. Purdue. The non-conference games won't provide much of an opportunity to do that, should be 3 relatively easy Ws.
Click to expand...

I just think it’s a trap and a mistake to label this game like a “must have”. That’s just not fair to the program, the state that it’s at this season. On the road, against what will be a good Purdue squad, I say there’s less than 50% to win. And that’s not an insult.

NEXT year, that’s when I’m with you.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
You’re the one arguing coaching doesn’t matter except it terms of recruiting (if I’m reading you right). There are so many examples of that not being true in terms of under and over achieving recruiting rankings it’s hard to know where to start. Saban and Dabo didn’t walk into top recruiting classes - they worked their way up to number 1 or 2 or 3 by winning. Meyer at OSU. That’s another team I expect/hope will start to fade a little the next couple years. We’ll see.
Click to expand...

Sure selfishly us West fans would love to see Ohio State “down”. The Big Ten sure as heck doesn’t. Realistically, Ohio State goes down and that just means Michigan and Penn St will start winning those top 4/5 star recruiting battles against them, and pop up. Mich St a half-step below.


Back to my point: yes, you are very much correct. In that, not just anyone can waltz into Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Clemson and win nattys. It does take a special coach. So I admit that.

I absolutely do not think that Dabo or Saban could win a natty at Minnesota (or Illinois, Indiana, etc). It’s just not the same discussion, apples to watermelon. Not that they ever would take on such a challenge.


So it boils down to this: which is more “significant”, the coach who goes into a bottom half P5 and does more with less, or a coach who goes into a top 15 P5 program and does more with more??

I think the former is more significant. That’s how I feel.
 

Gophers_4life said:
There is no secret sauce or special formula.

Neither Saban nor Sweeney have invented some special process, method, or scheme that no one else in the country knows how to do.

Somehow they figured out a way to get the 4 and 5 star athletes they needed to win national championships. If that’s by paying the players families, their handlers, whatever, who knows. Maybe, maybe not. Wouldn’t surprise me though.
Click to expand...

Ironically, ESPN put out an article today that completely flies in the face of the 'it's about the recruiting, not the coaching'. The gist it that most top-10 programs have seen a big jump in wins in year 2 after hiring a new head coach. Same recruits they had before, just new coaches. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27346872/which-coach-ready-make-year-2-leap
 

SSWWMAS said:
Ironically, ESPN put out an article today that completely flies in the face of the 'it's about the recruiting, not the coaching'. The gist it that most top-10 programs have seen a big jump in wins in year 2 after hiring a new head coach. Same recruits they had before, just new coaches. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27346872/which-coach-ready-make-year-2-leap
Click to expand...

Thanks. I retract my earlier argument, and admit I was wrong.

This is my v2.0 stance: sure, Saban, Dabo etc. have done more with more at top 15 programs. Would they be able to win big at bottom half P5 programs? I don’t think so.
 



Gophers_4life said:
I just think it’s a trap and a mistake to label this game like a “must have”. That’s just not fair to the program, the state that it’s at this season. On the road, against what will be a good Purdue squad, I say there’s less than 50% to win. And that’s not an insult.

NEXT year, that’s when I’m with you.
Click to expand...

Think about this game from a Purdue perspective.

Last year they came to MN off a win against Iowa and OSU over the last three weeks and 5-4 overall.

MN blows their doors off.
They then lose at Wisconsin and then beat Indiana, to then get blown out by Auburn.

This year their schedule is:
@ Nevada
Vandy
vs TCU
then vs us.

They could be 1-2 against us. If they lose that game, what do fans around Purdue start thinking?

After us their schedule has four tough road games and Nebraska at home.

@PSU
Maryland (a talented team)
@Iowa
vs Illinois
vs Nebraska
@NW
@WI
Indiana
 

Sure, you can always spin the future many different ways.

I don’t think they’ll lose to Nevada or Vandy, TCU maybe. So either 2-1 or maybe 3-0 coming into a home game where they want revenge badly. They want to pay us back.

Given how Maryland went last year ... sorry, you just won’t convince me until after it happens. Hope they do. But won’t be surprised if they don’t. And that’s sitting from here. Things change every week during he season, let’s see.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Thanks. I retract my earlier argument, and admit I was wrong.

This is my v2.0 stance: sure, Saban, Dabo etc. have done more with more at top 15 programs. Would they be able to win big at bottom half P5 programs? I don’t think so.
Click to expand...

Would they be able to win all the Tostito's at Minnesota, Illinois or Indiana? I would say likely not, however I would say going to the Big 10 Title and/or Rose Bowl would be likely/even expected after 3-4 yrs.
 

SelectionSunday said:
The Big Ten opener @ Purdue is very significant. If Gophers are legit at all, that's a game they win. If postgame West Lafayette includes Heather on the field mugging for the cameras, the guys have done their job.

Gophers need to set a the right tone right away vs. Purdue. The non-conference games won't provide much of an opportunity to do that, should be 3 relatively easy Ws.
Click to expand...

I don't think saying if they are legit at all they will win, is very accurate. Can't put that much stock in one game.

Last year Purdue was coming off of a 7-6 season like we are this year. They went 6-7 this year which was a let down, but honestly they salvaged a 6 win year after starting 0-3. I do expect us to win this game but I do agree that it is importance in the sense that we should pound our early opponents.
 



swelna said:
Yeah, the team is the real deal if they breeze through non-conference and then put a convincing win down against Purdue. I really want to see the Gophs 5-0 when Nebraska comes to TCF....
Click to expand...

Agree. Atmosphere would be electric. Beat Nebby and 8-0 becomes a real possibility.

Fleck needs a big season to not lose recruiting momentum from 2018 class.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Agree. Atmosphere would be electric. Beat Nebby and 8-0 becomes a real possibility.
Click to expand...

Man, it’s just going to be unfortunate to watch some folks here come crashing nose down from some ridiculous heights, when the actual reality of year THREE takes full grasp. Will be some pretty big craters. So be it
 



Gophers_4life said:
Which of these has the poll about starting the season 8-0??
Click to expand...

8-0 was IF they started 5-0 and IF they beat nebraska, I don't see how its that far fetched to think they could go 8-0 IF those two things happen? You can argue the probability of those two things happen, but it's not like we're saying 8-0 or bust...
 

Gophers_4life said:
Thanks. I retract my earlier argument, and admit I was wrong.

This is my v2.0 stance: sure, Saban, Dabo etc. have done more with more at top 15 programs. Would they be able to win big at bottom half P5 programs? I don’t think so.[/QUOTE]

Urban Meyer inherited a 5-6 Utah team and went 10-2 in year one and 12-0 in year two including a Fiesta Bowl victory. I would say that is winning big.
Click to expand...
 


swelna said:
8-0 was IF they started 5-0 and IF they beat nebraska
Click to expand...

Sure, in other words 8-0 IF we win the first eight games of the season in a row.

Like I said, big craters. It’s ok, it’s the ‘Hole. People were floating very high going into Maryland last year.

Year three people, year three...
 

Gophers_4life said:
Sure, in other words 8-0 IF we win the first eight games of the season in a row.

Like I said, big craters. It’s ok, it’s the ‘Hole. People were floating very high going into Maryland last year.

Year three people, year three...
Click to expand...

Is it really year three? I think you are not taking into account year zero.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Sure, in other words 8-0 IF we win the first eight games of the season in a row.

Like I said, big craters. It’s ok, it’s the ‘Hole. People were floating very high going into Maryland last year.

Year three people, year three...
Click to expand...

Again, MD was the first indication last year that something was amiss with the defensive scheme. Same long runs that happened in Neb and Illinois games. By cherry picking that game you are completely discounting the Gophs defense's performance after Smith was canned.

What other way would Gophs get to 8-0?
 

Gophers_4life said:
Sure, in other words 8-0 IF we win the first eight games of the season in a row.

Like I said, big craters. It’s ok, it’s the ‘Hole. People were floating very high going into Maryland last year.

Year three people, year three...
Click to expand...

Alright, you do you, if you want to take the first half of my post in a vacuum, fine. All I was trying to get at is there's a difference between "We're going 8-0" and "If we go 6-0, it's hard to imagine stumbling and losing one or both of the next games", the former being your interpretation and the later being what we were talking about.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Again, MD was the first indication last year that something was amiss with the defensive scheme. Same long runs that happened in Neb and Illinois games. By cherry picking that game you are completely discounting the Gophs defense's performance after Smith was canned.
Click to expand...

Hey I hope you’re right. Hope we go 8-0 on our way to 9, 10 wins.

Ain’t gonna happen, and so I ain’t getting my hopes up that high for no good reason, just to nose dive. But it’s only year three, so 7,8 regular season wins is right on track.
 

Gophers_4life said:
Hey I hope you’re right. Hope we go 8-0 on our way to 9, 10 wins.

Ain’t gonna happen, and so I ain’t getting my hopes up that high for no good reason, just to nose dive. But it’s only year three, so 7,8 regular season wins is right on track.
Click to expand...

Again it an "If" scenario. The hardest stretch of this year's schedule starts with the Pen St game.

So in summary, to you the end of last season was a complete fluke and the MD game was the best indication of where the program is...got it.
 

Tamp Tamp Tamp


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

PMWinSTP said:
the end of last season was a complete fluke and the MD game was the best indication of where the program is
Click to expand...

Definitely not a fluke, and definitely isn’t a reasonable basis for setting expectations for minimum regular season wins in year three at 8,9.

MD game last year is just a good example of ‘Hole posters riding sky high, only to nose diver into the ground. If your expectation is starting 8-0, I’m afraid you may be in for another nose bomb.
 
Last edited:

Gophers_4life said:
Definitely not a fluke, and definitely isn’t a reasonable basis for setting expectations for minimum regular season wins in year three at 8,9.

MS game last year is just a good example of ‘Hole posters riding sky high, only to nose diver into the ground. If your expectation is starting 8-0, I’m afraid you may be in for another nose bomb.
Click to expand...

You're not making sense, which is not new. The concensus is Gophs should have won at least two more games last year so, no it's not unreasonable.
 

I tend to believe that each game is its own entity. Momentum is great, but I believe that games are decided primarily on match-ups.

A team could be 5-0 or 6-0, then they run into an opponent that presents unfavorable match-ups, and boom, they wind up losing by 20 points.

----with the proviso that I'm talking about teams that are fairly similar in overall talent. If one team is just superior to the other team in talent, match-ups alone will not make the difference.

But, if two teams are reasonably close in talent, then I go back to the match-ups. You can negate some of that with coaching, but a bad match-up is a bad match-up.

So - just because a team wins several games in a row, that fact - in and of itself - does not increase the chances of winning the next game, IMHO.

i still think the B1G West is going to be like rock-em, sock-em robots. teams are going to beat each other up all year. so injuries will play a big part. the team left standing at the end of the year may not be the 'best' team, it may be the healthiest team.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom