Shaping the 68: Last of the At-Large Bids Will Be Sorted Out Saturday

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cjbfbp said:
Pitino had two more years and still had 2 fewer postseason appearances. Is that not obvious to you?

So Pitino getting a "Bye" in the Big Ten tournament in one year of his 8 years redeems him? He also had 5 Weakling Wednesday appearances in 8 years

"The difference in the Big 10 schedule alone could knock Tubby down a few percentage points and elevate Richard a couple in terms of overall winning percentage"

How can you both subtract points from a person for a perceived deficiency and add points to another person in a comparison at the same time? You have to do one or the other. I can see you haven't spent much time in your life actually grading individuals.

Again, Tubby had two fewer Big Ten attempts each year. I'm confident that he would have done no worse than Pitino with the additional opportunities

I'm done here. I lack the patience to continue arguing with someone who is clueless to his own logical flaws.
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Logic flaw? That's rich considering Weakling Wednesday didn't even exist during Tubby's tenure. Had there been more teams in the Conference, no telling how often they would have been relegated. They were bottom 4 twice.

The 14 team conference makes Richards 4th place finish, Double Bye all the more impressive. They finished better than 8 Big 10 teams. Tubby never finished better than 6 Big 10 teams

Yes, it is obvious regarding the Postseason appearances but I don't place much value on it. NITs that don't result in a Championship, I do not hold in much regard. Practically zip. To each their own.

Regarding the difference between the 18-20 game schedule (reducing Tubby's overall percentage and increasing Richard's) I was thinking in terms of mean/median values. I wasn't assuming Tubby would have to play a 20 game schedule nor Richard sticking with an 18 game schedule.

If Richard had got canned after 6 years (and just like Tubby following a year with an NCAA win) his Overall winning percentage would be have been .549. A little closer to Tubby.
 
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Wednesday Movement
Wisconsin is eliminated from at-large consideration with its Weakling Wednesday loss to Ohio State. The Badgers have more than enough Quad 1 wins (currently 6), but logic says 17-14 with a NET ranking of #81 and a 9-12 Big Ten record (with 2 of those wins over the Gophers) just won't make the cut.

Montana State (Big Sky), Colgate (Patriot), and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland) earn automatic bids.

There are 2 teams playing Thursday that I will lock into the Field of 68 if they win, Arizona State and Oklahoma State. Perhaps others, depending on how other games shake out.

5 teams are on the chopping block and will be removed from at-large consideration with a loss on Thursday: Clemson, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, and Vanderbilt.
 
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Is Rutgers Michigan a de facto play in game?
 

Holy Man said:
Is Rutgers Michigan a de facto play in game?
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Michigan definitely out if they lose.

Rutgers would still be under consideration, but that #308 non-conference SOS could be problematic, as well as 4 bad losses (Quads 3 & 4) that includes the Gophers. What the Scarlet Knights have going for them is (currently) a 7-7 record vs. the field. That's really good for a bubble team.
 



Thursday Movement
I locked in 3 more teams after Thursday's action, Arizona State, Mississippi State, and Penn State. By my estimation there are now only 4 at-large bids available, with 9 teams vying for those spots.

I've added #36 North Texas (24-6) as a team under at-large consideration.

Eliminated from consideration were Michigan, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State.
 
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Friday Movement
No additional teams were locked into the Field of 68, however I did remove NC State from further at-large consideration. I'll sort out the last 4 at-large bids after Saturday's games.

By my count the potential remains for 3 at-large bids to be stolen, excluding Vanderbilt, which is still playing and in contention for one of the (currently) 4 remaining at-large bids. The potential bid-stealers come from the American (Cincinnati or Tulane), Big Ten (Ohio State), and Conference USA (UAB).

13 of the 18 remaining automatic bids will be doled out Saturday:
America East: #2 UMass-Lowell @ #1 Vermont
ACC: #2 Virginia vs. #4 Duke
Big East: #1 Marquette vs. #2 Xavier
Big XII: #1 Kansas vs. #2 Texas
Big West: #2 UCSB vs. #4 Cal State-Fullerton
Conference USA: #1 FAU vs. #3 UAB
MAAC: #1 Iona vs. #11 Marist
MAC: #1 Toledo vs. #2 Kent State
MEAC: #1 Howard vs. #3 Norfolk State
Mountain West: #1 San Diego State vs. #3 Utah State
Pac 12: #1 UCLA vs. #2 Arizona
SWAC: #2 Grambling vs. #8 Texas Southern
WAC: #3 Southern Utah vs. #5 Grand Canyon

On Selection Sunday we'll get champions from the American, Atlantic 10, Big Ten, Ivy League, and SEC.

Teams who began the week under consideration for the Field of 68 but are no longer include: Michigan, North Carolina, NC State, North Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oregon.

Thanks for following along this week.
 
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Thanks for doing this and keeping us up to date. Scanning the conference finals, it looks as close to chalk as I ever remember. Mostly 1 and 2 and 3 seeds with a couple 4 and 5. Looks like Pitino Sr lucked out by playing the 11 in MAAC final.

With how competitive the Big 12 was, I half expected an 8 or 9 to be playing in the final.

Is this the fewest bubble spots still available this late in the game you have seen?
 



Holy Man said:
Is this the fewest bubble spots still available this late in the game you have seen?
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I'd go the other way. Most years I'd say by Saturday morning it's down to about 2. Things can still get interesting if we get a couple bid-stealers (potential bad news for a team like Rutgers), but realistically I think we'll have only one. Won't be surprised at all if UAB dumps FAU in the Conference USA title game.
 

The America East Final just started and Vermont is playing at home. Just realized that four conferences don't play at neutral sites. For one bid leagues.....I don't hate it.
 

stocker08 said:
The America East Final just started and Vermont is playing at home. Just realized that four conferences don't play at neutral sites. For one bid leagues.....I don't hate it.
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Colgate punched their ticket Wednesday at home over Lafayette. The last 5 years they have made it to the Patriot League Final, and have gone 4-1. All 15 playoff games were on their home floor.

I have a hunch a bigger school is going snatch their HC Matt Langel.
 

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