Shaping the 68: Last of the At-Large Bids Will Be Sorted Out Saturday

[RockChalk]

Saturday Movement
Fairleigh Dickinson (NEC) and Southeast Missouri State (OVC) are the first of 32 automatic qualifiers.

And welcome 4 new locks to the field Auburn, Iowa State, USC, and Utah State.

We'll have 3 more automatic bids secured today (Sunday): ASUN (#2 Liberty @ #1 Kennesaw State); Big South (#1 UNC-Asheville vs. #7 Campbell); and Missouri Valley (#1 Bradley vs. #2 Drake).

I'm assuming you have WV in now as well after winning their last two @ ISU and home vs KSU

 

[SelectionSunday]

I'm assuming you have WV in now as well after winning their last two @ ISU and home vs KSU

Yes.

Even if they lose Big XII tourney opener they’re in.

 

[atsgopher]

Maybe so but when you play in the best/toughest conference in college BB it isn't as bad as it seems.

Noted and agreed. Contextually there was discussion of WI looking the same. The B12 conference definitely is better this season. However, I think one needs to watch the B10 to note it’s down, as it gives the appearance of it’s usual toughness given the clumping of records.

 

[cjbfbp]

I find it funny that people think this was only a Pitino thing when Tubby's teams did the exact same thing.

No, not the "exact same thing." Pitino's second half slides were enough to take his teams into losing season territory. Tubby never had a losing season in 6 years here and made 5 post-season tournaments in those 6 years. Pitino had 4 outright losing seasons in 8 years and only three post-season tournament appearances.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

No, not the "exact same thing." Pitino's second half slides were enough to take his teams into losing season territory. Tubby never had a losing season in 6 years here and made 5 post-season tournaments in those 6 years. Pitino had 4 outright losing seasons in 8 years and only three post-season tournament appearances.

So you want to get nit-picky on the word exact? Tubby also never finished above .500 in the conference and Pitino did.

Tubby had a ranked Gophers team in the first half of the season in years 2, 3, 4, and 6. All of them were unranked by mid-February because of their late season slides. His last team was ranked 8th in the country before going 5-11 down the stretch and stumbling into the NCAA tournament as an 11 seed.

Those late season slides and his lack of recruiting the last two years is why he was fired.

 

[RogueGopher]

The Big South tournament has been incredible. #1 UNC Ashville on the ropes again, this time against the #7 seed Fighting Camels.

Campbell ended the regular season 13-17.
Where do we seed them? #16 in Dayton?

 

[Holy Man]

The Big South tournament has been incredible. #1 UNC Ashville on the ropes again, this time against the #7 seed Fighting Camels.

Campbell ended the regular season 13-17.
Where do we seed them? #16 in Dayton?

Can they get seeded 17?

 

[RogueGopher]

The Big South tournament has been incredible. #1 UNC Ashville on the ropes again, this time against the #7 seed Fighting Camels.

Campbell ended the regular season 13-17.
Where do we seed them? #16 in Dayton?

oof. Camels blow a 14 point lead with 7 minutes left.

Drew Pember in the big dance, hope they somehow match them up with Tennessee

 

[Drake University Gopher]

Drake with the statement W going into the NCAA tournament!

 

[Holy Man]

Not an easy out in the tournament.

 

[Drake University Gopher]

Not an easy out in the tournament.

It would be amazing if Ramberg became something even remotely close to what Sturtz does for Drake. Former walk on who became the All-Time leading rebounder at 6’3”! Absolutely insane.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Sunday Movement
Kennesaw State (ASUN), UNC-Asheville (Big South), and Drake (Missouri Valley) earn automatic bids.

Comeback win over Maryland puts Penn State squarely on the bubble cutline, one win in Big Ten Tournament (Thursday vs. Illinois) likely has Nittany Lions dancing.

We'll have 2 more automatic bids secured on Monday: SoCon (#1 Furman vs. #7 Chattanooga); and Sun Belt (#2 Louisiana vs. #8 South Alabama).

 

[SelectionSunday]

Monday Movement
Furman (SoCon) and Louisiana (Sun Belt) become the 6th and 7th teams to earn an automatic bid.

Top seeds #1 Saint Mary's and #2 Gonzaga advance to the championship game of the WCC, meaning there will not be a bid-stealer from that conference.

On Tuesday, automatic bids will be doled out for the Colonial (#2 College of Charleston vs. #4 UNC-Wilmington), Horizon (#3 Cleveland State vs. #4 Northern Kentucky), Summit (#1 Oral Roberts vs. #3 North Dakota State), and WCC (#1 Saint Mary's vs. #2 Gonzaga).

 

[Holy Man]

Monday Movement
Furman (SoCon) and Louisiana (Sun Belt) become the 6th and 7th teams to earn an automatic bid.

Top seeds #1 Saint Mary's and #2 Gonzaga advance to the championship game of the WCC, meaning there will not be a bid-stealer from that conference.

On Tuesday, automatic bids will be doled out for the Colonial (#2 College of Charleston vs. #4 UNC-Wilmington), Horizon (#3 Cleveland State vs. #4 Northern Kentucky), Summit (#1 Oral Roberts vs. #3 North Dakota State), and WCC (#1 Saint Mary's vs. #2 Gonzaga).

We should be wanting at least a couple bid stealers as insurance to keep Wisconsin out, correct? I’m not seeing a lot of possibilities though. Maybe North Texas if Florida Atlantic snares an at-large from CUSA?

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Is Oral Roberts in regardless?

 

[Holy Man]

Is Oral Roberts in regardless?

Good question. I’m not sure if the Summit has ever received an at-large.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I think Oral Roberts would have a chance, similar to College of Charleston if it loses tonight. Not a great chance, but possible if the committee uses the eye test a little bit. Having now seen ORU 3 times in person, they definitely have the goods to win a game or two in the tourney. Very good guards + Vanover at 7-5 protecting the rim.

 

[Ope3]

Noted and agreed. Contextually there was discussion of WI looking the same. The B12 conference definitely is better this season. However, I think one needs to watch the B10 to note it’s down, as it gives the appearance of it’s usual toughness given the clumping of records.

Wisconsin finished 9-11 with 2 of those victories against Minnesota (NET 231) and both were down the wire. They are probably better off that they play Ohio St in terms of adding to their resume instead of playing the Gophers in a 3rd game on Weakling Wednesday.

Uffda if they ultimately get in.

I realize it's about their full body of work, but still...yuck.

 

[cjbfbp]

So you want to get nit-picky on the word exact? Tubby also never finished above .500 in the conference and Pitino did.

This isn't even debatable. Tubby won 60.5% of his games here while Pitino won only 53.4% of his games here. It's absurd to say that the coaches were roughly equal because Pitino had one year out of 8 where he had a better conference season record than any of Tubby's. Pitino's record was actually very close to Monson's (52.7%). Tubby's overall winning percentage actually exceeded Clem's (58.7%) although he certainly didn't reach the same heights. Tubby's overall percentage wasn't all that far below Dutcher's (62.7%).

I think you're the one who doesn't understand the meaning of the word "exact." The word means "precisely" or at least close enough to be indistinguishable from "precisely."

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

This isn't even debatable. Tubby won 60.5% of his games here while Pitino won only 53.4% of his games here. It's absurd to say that the coaches were roughly equal because Pitino had one year out of 8 where he had a better conference season record than any of Tubby's. Pitino's record was actually very close to Monson's (52.7%). Tubby's overall winning percentage actually exceeded Clem's (58.7%) although he certainly didn't reach the same heights. Tubby's overall percentage wasn't all that far below Dutcher's (62.7%).

I think you're the one who doesn't understand the meaning of the word "exact." The word means "precisely" or at least close enough to be indistinguishable from "precisely."

You keep bringing up overall record and not conference record only to cherry pick. I'm not talking about comparing both coaches as a whole.

This discussion is talking about fizzling down the stretch, which are all conference games. Both Pitino's and Tubby's conference records were terrible because they were both terrible from mid-January through February.

Try reading what you're responding to next time.

 

[cjbfbp]

This discussion is talking about fizzling down the stretch, which are all conference games. Both Pitino's and Tubby's conference records were terrible because they were both terrible from mid-January through February.

Try reading what you're responding to next time.

I responded to that in the initial post. They both had second half slides but since Tubby's teams played better in the remainder of most seasons, his were not as damaging.

Let's take the last 15 games of each of their each final seasons as an example.

2021: Pitino started out 10-2 but went 3-12 on that last 15 for an overall regular season record 13-14. No postseason. Granted he lost about 4 games because of the pandemic but he still likely wouldn't have earned a postseason if he had played them.

2013: Tubby started out 15-1. He then went 5-10 over the last 15 regular season games to finish the regular season 20-11. Disappointing? Sure, but he still won enough to reach the postseason. His start was better and his slide wasn't as bad as Pitino's.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Oral Roberts looking to score 50 in the first half. Will slide them to the “in” pile.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Tuesday Tidbits
College of Charleston (Colonial), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Oral Roberts (Summit), and Gonzaga (WCC) earn automatic bids.

The wins by College of Charleston and Oral Roberts are welcome news to all bubble teams. Both teams may have received consideration for an at-large bid had they not won their conference tournament.

On Wednesday, automatic bids will be doled out to the Southland (#1 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. #2 Northwestern State), Patriot (#6 Lafayette @ #1 Colgate), and Big Sky (#2 Montana State vs. #9 Northern Arizona).

Major conferences kick into full gear Wednesday with games in the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12, and SEC. We'll finally start having some significant bubble/at-large movement.

 

[Ope3]

This isn't even debatable. Tubby won 60.5% of his games here while Pitino won only 53.4% of his games here. It's absurd to say that the coaches were roughly equal because Pitino had one year out of 8 where he had a better conference season record than any of Tubby's. Pitino's record was actually very close to Monson's (52.7%). Tubby's overall winning percentage actually exceeded Clem's (58.7%) although he certainly didn't reach the same heights. Tubby's overall percentage wasn't all that far below Dutcher's (62.7%).

I think you're the one who doesn't understand the meaning of the word "exact." The word means "precisely" or at least close enough to be indistinguishable from "precisely."

Not absurd at all.

Tubby had 18 game Big 10 schedules while Pitino had 20 game Big 10 schedules. Also no Big East Challenge during Tubby's tenure.

Tubby's first year, overall record was padded with a couple of wins in an in exempt Tournament at Las Vegas against Nicholls St & Kennesaw St. Year 2 won the NABC at Williams Arena with a gauntlet of Concordia (St Paul), Bowling Green and Georgia St. Other years they were in better exempt fields, with mixed success. 2010-11 they beat W Kentucky, N Carolina & W Virginia, but finished 9th in the Big 10 after Al Nolen broke his foot.

All I am saying is using Overall Winning Percentage may not be a true guide win comparing coaching accomplishments. Not all nonconference schedules are comparable.

 

[cjbfbp]

All I am saying is using Overall Winning Percentage may not be a true guide win comparing coaching accomplishments. Not all nonconference schedules are comparable.

Over one season, maybe not. Over 6 or more years, yes. They were playing in the same conference. Let's assume Tubby would have split his additional two conference games a season or at least would have done no worse than Pitino with those.

I look at this very simply. If the team wins a game, I'm happy to one degree or another. If the team loses the game, I'm unhappy to one degree or another. That's the bottom line for the overwhelming majority of fans (including most of those who pretend it's not). If a coach finishes a season at 20-11 and earns a postseason fans will be happier than they would be with a coach who finishes 17-14 without a postseason and no amount of analysis about relative "strength of schedules" will change that. Strength of schedule doesn't mean quite as much anyway in college basketball with around 31 regular season games as it does in football with only 12 regular season games.

I've spent a good portion of my life doing technical analysis but I'm well aware of how over analyzing something can lead to irrelevant perspectives.

 

[Ope3]

Over one season, maybe not. Over 6 or more years, yes. They were playing in the same conference. Let's assume Tubby would have split his additional two conference games a season or at least would have done no worse than Pitino with those.

I look at this very simply. If the team wins a game, I'm happy to one degree or another. If the team loses the game, I'm unhappy to one degree or another. That's the bottom line for the overwhelming majority of fans (including most of those who pretend it's not).

I disagree.

I don't think there was a substantial difference between what Tubby accomplished overall, vs what Richard accomplished. It is not "absurd" as you stated. Far from it.

The difference in the Big 10 schedule alone could knock Tubby down a few percentage points and elevate Richard a couple in terms of overall winning percentage

If a coach finishes a season at 20-11 and earns a postseason fans will be happier than they would be with a coach who finishes 17-14 without a postseason and no amount of analysis about relative "strength of schedules" will change that. Strength of schedule doesn't mean quite as much anyway in college basketball with around 31 regular season games as it does in football with only 12 regular season games.

I've spent a good portion of my life doing technical analysis but I'm well aware of how over analyzing something can lead to irrelevant perspectives.

Factoring going to the postseason is a totally different argument, but I would say between the two again very comparable, in my opinion.

Tubby - 3 NCAAs, 1 victory plus 2 NITs (1 runner-up) over 6 seasons.
Richard - 2 NCAAs, 1 victory plus an NIT Championship over 7 seasons.

I have no problem with stating Tubby accomplished more, but I think it was extremely marginal. If one places more value on the 2016-17 season in which they finished 4th under Richard and got a Bye into the Big 10 Tourney, it's totally reasonable to say it's a dead heat (or nearly).

Tubby never had a team that got a Bye in the Big 10 Tournament. Never.

 

[saintpauljeff]

Wisconsin finished 9-11 with 2 of those victories against Minnesota (NET 231) and both were down the wire. They are probably better off that they play Ohio St in terms of adding to their resume instead of playing the Gophers in a 3rd game on Weakling Wednesday.

Uffda if they ultimately get in.

I realize it's about their full body of work, but still...yuck.

OSU is favored over Wisconsin?

 

[Ope3]

OSU is favored over Wisconsin?

Badgers are getting 1.5 pts, currently. I'm not shocked by that.

 

[cjbfbp]

I disagree.

I don't think there was a substantial difference between what Tubby accomplished overall, vs what Richard accomplished. It is not "absurd" as you stated. Far from it.

The difference in the Big 10 schedule alone could knock Tubby down a few percentage points and elevate Richard a couple in terms of overall winning percentage



Factoring going to the postseason is a totally different argument, but I would say between the two again very comparable, in my opinion.

Tubby - 3 NCAAs, 1 victory plus 2 NITs (1 runner-up) over 6 seasons.
Richard - 2 NCAAs, 1 victory plus an NIT Championship over 7 seasons.

I have no problem with stating Tubby accomplished more, but I think it was extremely marginal. If one places more value on the 2016-17 season in which they finished 4th under Richard and got a Bye into the Big 10 Tourney, it's totally reasonable to say it's a dead heat (or nearly).

Tubby never had a team that got a Bye in the Big 10 Tournament. Never.

Pitino had two more years and still had 2 fewer postseason appearances. Is that not obvious to you?

So Pitino getting a "Bye" in the Big Ten tournament in one year of his 8 years redeems him? He also had 5 Weakling Wednesday appearances in 8 years

"The difference in the Big 10 schedule alone could knock Tubby down a few percentage points and elevate Richard a couple in terms of overall winning percentage"

How can you both subtract points from a person for a perceived deficiency and add points to another person in a comparison at the same time? You have to do one or the other. I can see you haven't spent much time in your life actually grading individuals.

Again, Tubby had two fewer Big Ten attempts each year. I'm confident that he would have done no worse than Pitino with the additional opportunities

I'm done here. I lack the patience to continue arguing with someone who is clueless to his own logical flaws.

 

[skiumah1]

OSU is favored over Wisconsin?

I don't see Ohio State winning that.