Season Win/Loss Predictions 3 months out...

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oak_street1981 said:
I do not see why this team cannot win 7 or 8 games if the defense is any good and the offense shows a little life.

The only 99 percent losses on the schedule are Ohio State and Wisconsin. That Iowa QB looked pretty good last year and if they are trending upwards that is a tough one as well.

Northwestern gets talked up all the time and then they look like crap for half the year, and I am not sure why they are to be feared. ... edit this can't hurt though https://sports.yahoo.com/move-clems...-unparalleled-college-football-220858185.html

The big one I have an issue with is Nebraska being considered a Loss almost universally.

-Did not Nebraska look pretty awful last year?

-more importantly is it not Year Zero for Frost? We all know no coach can win in the dreaded Year Zero.
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That only applies to schools in states that are both east and west of the Mississippi River.

After the way last season went, it is hard to be optimistic about this coming season:
Should be 2-1 in Non-Con. with the loss being to Fresno. That Fresno game will go a long way in determining what happens the rest of the year.
Along with the first BIG game at Maryland.
In the BIG, we should be in very home game with a chance to beat Iowa, Indiana, Purdue and NW, but I'm guessing we will drop at least one of those
due to something just not going right.
The road games all look to be tough, other than Illinois. Neb was awful last year, but with a new coach I believe they will be much
improved by the time we face them.
Looking like a 5-7 or 6-6 record.
We should make a bowl game of some sort though so anything less than 6-6 would be disappointing.
 

We will be better at QB; anybody who watched Morgan and Annexstad in Spring game or Viramontes juco AllAmerican film will tell you that AND QBs benefit as the WR unit should improve leaps and bounds AND we may be better catching the ball at TE and RB...both Tanner and Zack show great pocket presence, field awareness, and are solid, accurate throwers with touch... Viramontes is a better running QB than anyone we had last year...showed a big arm on juco film, played with/against good competition

We will be better at RB if Rodney stays healthy...he can be an All-Big Ten/NFL guy...Ibrahim looks legit and I am guessing one or both of Edmonds or Williams is ready to shine as a frosh...FemiCole not a bad depth option

We will be SO much better on O-line...return four starters in Weyler, Greene, Olson, Schlueter...we return good veteran depth that will push starters in Oseland, Dovich...add an older juco who may start in Dickson...take redshirt off a big time recruit who may start in Andries...take redshirt off two recruits PJ loves in Schmitz (will push to start at center) and Sassack... Bring in two four-star frosh in Faalele and Dunlap who may get a chance right away...one or more of Beier, York, Norton, Davis, Boe might surprise as well...

We will be better at oline coach- seems like Warinner maybe wasn't a good fit with Kirk, may have used us as a soft landing/transition spot...now we get Callahan running the o-line, who helped PJ and Kirk put together juggernaut offense at WMU that was beating NW, Purdue, playing Wisconsin tough in 2016...Callahan has great track record getting oline guys drafted from WMU.

Oline guys will be in second year of new strength and condition/nutrition program...those dividends should be seen...Oline guys will be in new weight room...should help.

We will be SO much better at WR...Tyler Johnson is ready to be AllBigTen...Autman-Bell and Douglas would have started last year if not injured...Bateman could be Big Ten AllFrosh...Howard gained nice experience. Fleck and Simon have put multiple WRs in the NFL.

Interested to see what happens at TE...Seth Green could bring some athletic mismatches we can use in space (as could Paulson or Spann-Ford)...we return some maturity and size with Kieft, Beebe, Witham that could help the run game; be used creatively in offense.

The new coach Patterson will bring a lot to the offensive room...one of most innovative minds in college football.

We add some veteran maturity to the defense...Antoine Winfield comes back from injury, may be best player on defense...Chris Williamson, the Florida transfer probably starts at one CB...OJ Smith, the Alabama transfer probably starts in middle of d-line...need all three of those to be difference makers.

DT will be solid despite losing Richardson, Stelter, Merrick...fifth year senior DT Gary Moore may have breakout year alongside 5th year senior Smith...Umlor is a returning starter who is moving inside as he puts on size, strength...juco star Silver got a redshirt year in weight/strength/film room and should help...Robinson provides good depth, will compete to start (was on travel squad last year, but kept his redshirt)...Teague a talent who plays right away like Richardson did? Redshirt also comes off PJ favorite Hickcox.

Coughlin returns and redshirt comes off Otomewo, who could have started last year, according to PJ...good competition, new blood at defensive end with some talented weapons in vets Devers, DeLattiboudere, Renner, Gibson, and newbies Mafe, Reigelsperger, Ahanotu, Okonji...not sure Paup was a good fit...d-line coaching could improve: Rossi is a Smith disciple, West comes highly regarded...DE play should be better

...we return very good linebackers in Barber, Martin, Cashman, Huff and Coughlin can play right with those guys on the edge...Schoenfelder, Oliver, Rush, Sori-Marin are nice young guys for depth and special teams who could surprise...Oliver is very highly touted...Rush looked the part as an early enrollee...LB unit should be better despite losing Celestin, who was hurt most of year

Secondary will be better, deeper. Kiondre with Williamson is a good coverage pair (Winfield in nickel package lets us match up well with three good WRs...Shenault could cover from safety position in some packages vs 4 WR sets?...Huff is a senior leader with knack for making plays...Swenson looked good at safety in Spring game; he is probably next to go on scholarship...redshirt frosh Estes could be in two-deep at corner- almost played last year; hope Durr can return to 2016 level- should be better than his 2017 level...Harris got thrown in the fire but gained experience; should be better...Sapp (safety?), T Smith (corner/Special teams?), CJ Smith (corner/safety/special teams?), Aune (safety?) may need to (earn right to) play right away...Sapp was a tops in country type talent before injuries sidelined...T Smith has tops in country type speed...CJ Smith has very good size, speed...new coach seems to have good rapport with guys

like to see kicker return to 2016 All Big Ten level, punter is a question mark but I know Herbers can boom them from watching practices...added young talent should improve return/coverage teams

second year in Big Ten for staff should help...being in new facility should help...having the culture installed and clearing the roster of non-rowers should help...willingness to pull redshirts in year two helps a lot...new uniforms helps create excitement for team?
 

diehard said:
I am so sick that we never have any hope of beating Wisconsin. There is no valid reason we don't compete year in and year out. Inexperienced or not if you believe our coaches CAN coach we should have above average QB play this year. 8 wins plus a nice bowl win. 9!!

BTW that includes a Maryland road win.
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the qb position has been a mess for a long long long time. someone posted some kind of stat that MN hasn't had a QB throw an NFL pass during the season since 1972. Imagine not placing a goalie into the NHL ....for 40 years!
 

oak_street1981 said:
I do not see why this team cannot win 7 or 8 games if the defense is any good and the offense shows a little life.

The only 99 percent losses on the schedule are Ohio State and Wisconsin. That Iowa QB looked pretty good last year and if they are trending upwards that is a tough one as well.

Northwestern gets talked up all the time and then they look like crap for half the year, and I am not sure why they are to be feared. ... edit this can't hurt though https://sports.yahoo.com/move-clems...-unparalleled-college-football-220858185.html

The big one I have an issue with is Nebraska being considered a Loss almost universally.

-Did not Nebraska look pretty awful last year?

-more importantly is it not Year Zero for Frost? We all know no coach can win in the dreaded Year Zero.
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I am 100% with you. Last year we smoked Nebraska while looking like trash the rest of the season. I don't get why everyone thinks Frost is gonna come in and pull a 180.
 

A quick check of the records leads me to believe that with the completion of the 2017 season, the GOPHER has played 500 games since Murray Warmath last coached the GOPHER. The GOPHER has achieved 239 wins (conference, non-conference & bowl games) during that 45 year time frame between the 1972 season and the 2017 season. There have been 261 losses. So, it is safe to say that in an average season for the past 500 games, the GOPHER FOOTBALL TEAM has been coached to a .478 winning percentage and a .522 losing percentage. Based upon the averages, and I will assume that PJ Fleck is an average Minnesota coach at the very least: the team should go 6-6 during the season and will most likely lose their bowl game to finish the 13 game season with a 6 win and 7 loss record. At least that is what the history of the last 500 football games the GOPHER has played would tell me. 45 years and 500 games is a nice chunk of history to base a season prediction on...right?

Beat the stinking badger, GOPHER. We miss you a lot, Murray... Facilities...stadiums to play in...fancy digs...coaching changes and big buck salaries and recruiting techniques maybe don't mean all that much. Maybe the years...the records and the overall picture tells us all there is to know. Bottom line: "...it's six of one and half a dozen of another..." if the truth really is to be known. The winning/losing/playing to a tie percentages tell me that if he were coaching today, in a 12 game season Murray would have gotten the GOPHER to at least 6 wins & 6 losses but rather than lose the bowl game, Murray would most likely at least managed to get the GOPHER a tie!
 


I see 6-6 and a bowl game appearance. Here’s how we get there:

Wins: New Mexico State, Miami OH, Illinois, Indiana

Losses: @Ohio State, @Wisconsin

Just win two of these six games: Fresno State, @Maryland, Iowa, @Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern

I see a solid defense with great depth at LB. Having Winfield Jr. back is so unbelievably important. Our D will keep us competitive - especially if our rushing defense can improve from last season.

On offense, I unfortunately see a passing offense that ranked 13th of 14 in the B1G last year. Zero experience at QB. That’s discouraging. I see Rodney Smith and Tyler Johnson as proven talents, other than that I see youth and room to grow - likely will be growing pains.

RTB!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

MinnGopher said:
I am 100% with you. Last year we smoked Nebraska while looking like trash the rest of the season. I don't get why everyone thinks Frost is gonna come in and pull a 180.
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Frost is not elite enough to know that you need to change the culture with a year zero.
 

Fleck says wins and losses don't matter this year.

That should motivate his upperclassmen to play their tails off for him.
 

Broncos181973 said:
Fleck says wins and losses don't matter this year.

That should motivate his upperclassmen to play their tails off for him.
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At least some of his upperclassmen participated in a 9-4 season with a bowl win and know that wins and losses matter. "How you going to keep 'em down on the farm...after they compare 9-4 to 5-7? Fleck needs some new lines. This alternative way of spinning must have left him slightly dizzy and confused...maybe he needs a cultural decompression chamber.
 



FWIW - Athlon predicts Gophers go 6-6, play in Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. North Texas.

Street and Smith's doesn't do W-Ls, but has Gophers sixth in West, no bowl game.
 

I think 10-2 is very possible.

NMSU W
Fresno W
Miami W
at Maryland W
Iowa W
at Ohio State L
at NE W
Indiana W
at Illinois W
Purdue W
Northwestern W
at Wisconsin L

12-0 upside, 8-4 if too many injuries
 


It’s getting pretty deep in here. I mean, if we have a wünderkind at QB, the thinnest of secondaries doesn’t implode, and a bunch (and a bunch more) of youngsters and coaches overachieve maybe we pull a rabbit out of the hat. I’d put the possibility of a 8 or 9 win season as about equal to a 2 or 3 win season. I’ll take PJ at his word. After last year it’s fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Coach is building for 2020/2021, and our opponents are getting better as well. We should feel fortunate if we go bowling this season. Will my low expectations keep me from blowing my top during games? Nope. Will they keep me from making hyperbolic statements about PJ? Not likely. In the end, I have to remember the head man has a long view.
 



Swingman's 2 posts on this page nail it. WMU demonstrates the PJ can coach. That is the missing piece from Swingman's strong commentary. You made it through the Minnesota winter, now let's enjoy Gopher Football.
 

Purdue's football program was in much worse shape than Minnesota's and they won seven including a bowl game in "Year Zero."

Frost took over an 0-12 UCF team, went 6-7 in "Year Zero" followed by 13-0. Imagine what he'll do in "Year Zero" at Nebraska.
 

Broncos181973 said:
Purdue's football program was in much worse shape than Minnesota's and they won seven including a bowl game in "Year Zero."

Frost took over an 0-12 UCF team, went 6-7 in "Year Zero" followed by 13-0. Imagine what he'll do in "Year Zero" at Nebraska.
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Let's pretend that you aren't trolling. I know. Good one huh? :cool:

- Purdue had a so-so 7-6 season. Just looks good in comparison to recent years. They did a lot of it with Defense. With the talent they lost after that season, they might be hard pressed to get there again this year.

- UCF?

UCF 2012 - 10-4
UCF 2013 - 12-1
UCF 2014 - 10-4
UCF 2015 - 0-12
UCF 2016 - 6-7
CUF 2017 - 13-0

UCF and Frost had a GREAT year in 2017. The aberration year however, was in 2015, not the last one.

- Nebraska?

2012 - 11-3
2013 - 9-4
2014 - 9-4
2015 - 6-7
2016 - 9-4
2017 - 4-8

Frost should have a good season. Nobody needs to be talking about him "throwing away" his first season, or playing for the National Championship, nor winning the Big Ten. If he wins 9 games plus, he'll just be taking them back to where they were 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8..... years ago.

Minnesota?

They won 8, 8, 6 and 9 games in the years before they went 5-7 last season. Unlike at WMU, Fleck didn't throw away his first year here. He should get back to the previous pattern this season and his recruiting success would get him into the hunt for a BigTen title soon after.

He might even have a 12-1 or 13-0 season ahead of him.

If he does, hope that we won't start whining and trolling the team that hires him away. Just savor that big season instead.
 

"UWM"?

Fleck didn't coach at Wisconsin-Milwaukee (which doesn't have football).

It's WMU if you please.

So let's pretend you know as much you think you know too.

As to Fresno State:

They were only the second team in FBS history to go from double-digit losses one year to double-digit wins the next (Tedford's 'Year Zero').

Wouldn't be chalking them up as a "should win" this year.
 

NMSU W
FSU W
Miami Ohio W
Maryland L
Iowa L
Ohio State L
Nebraska L
Indiana W
Illinois W
Purdue W
NW L
WI L

6-6

I think Vegas will have the Gophers favored in just 5 or 6 games this year.

As always, QB play and injuries (both on the Gophers side and the opponents) will adjust for +/- 1 or 2 in the win/loss column.
 

Obviously, there are teams that make big jumps forward - or backward - in the course of a single season.

But, I tend to believe that most change is incremental. It's all about building a foundation, and achieving sustainable progress. I don't want a team that goes from 5 wins to 10 wins, then falls back to 6 wins the next year. I would rather have a team that shows steady, sustainable growth. 6 wins to 7; 7 wins to 8; 8 wins to 9, etc. If you follow that model, then at some point, you get to a stage where the success is sustainable, and you can rattle off 9 or 10 wins on a regular basis, and play in major bowl games almost every year. then, if you get a year where things break right, in terms of injuries, etc, you are positioned to potentially win a conference title, and even qualify for the NCAA playoffs.

We've seen Fleck start that process at WMU. But, because he left, we don't know if he would have been able to sustain that level of success over a period of years.

Now, we're watching to see how Fleck builds the Gopher program. Winning 6 or 7 games and making a bowl game would be a step forward. Coming back the next year and winning 7 or 8 games would be another step forward. It really is like climbing a ladder. you just don't want to miss a step and fall off. one rung at a time until you get to the top.
 

Iceland12 said:
Unlike at WMU, Fleck didn't throw away his first year here. He should get back to the previous pattern this season and his recruiting success would get him into the hunt for a BigTen title soon after.

He might even have a 12-1 or 13-0 season ahead of him.
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Can I have some of what you're having?? :D
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Obviously, there are teams that make big jumps forward - or backward - in the course of a single season.

But, I tend to believe that most change is incremental. It's all about building a foundation, and achieving sustainable progress. I don't want a team that goes from 5 wins to 10 wins, then falls back to 6 wins the next year. I would rather have a team that shows steady, sustainable growth. 6 wins to 7; 7 wins to 8; 8 wins to 9, etc. If you follow that model, then at some point, you get to a stage where the success is sustainable, and you can rattle off 9 or 10 wins on a regular basis, and play in major bowl games almost every year. then, if you get a year where things break right, in terms of injuries, etc, you are positioned to potentially win a conference title, and even qualify for the NCAA playoffs.

We've seen Fleck start that process at WMU. But, because he left, we don't know if he would have been able to sustain that level of success over a period of years.

Now, we're watching to see how Fleck builds the Gopher program. Winning 6 or 7 games and making a bowl game would be a step forward. Coming back the next year and winning 7 or 8 games would be another step forward. It really is like climbing a ladder. you just don't want to miss a step and fall off. one rung at a time until you get to the top.
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All this is true, but I’m worried if we set achievable goals and fail the team will be terribly depressed and quit trying. :rolleyes:
 

Originally Posted by Iceland12:

He might even have a 12-1 or 13-0 season ahead of him.

Tlsbhansen said:
Can I have some of what you're having?? :D
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If you read that as a prediction, you probably have had too much already. :eek:
 

The preseason prognostication perplexities remind me very much of the preseason outlooks for a few other seasons. I especially am reminded of the outlook for the: 1975, 76 ,81 ,80, 85, 86, 87 and 89 seasons. Followed by the uncertainties of 1990, 98, 2000, 06, 08, 09, 12 and 2015. Surprisingly similar in scope, these seasons were all pivotal in nature and unknown factors.

I am hoping for good bounces, good luck, good health, many bad weather games that may determine outcomes, and a number of other unpredictable possibilities. Beat the stinking badger, GOPHER! I don't think this is rocket science. Historically speaking: it is kind of how things have happened in many seasons. 7 wins and above IS a great achievement. Start with a bit of humility. Be thankful for what has been given. There is MUCH reward for being a GOPHER football fan. Seven wins and above is a tribute to the POSSIBILITIES that GOPHER football holds. And it ALL starts with beating the stinking badger, GOPHER. That is the stuff culture is made of, Coach Fleck. Start there and many more things are possible. Start there and the PRIDE of the GOPHER is evident. Honor the Seven and above clubs. Remember the rest of the seasons with the humility that only football can teach. In some cases there is not much difference between a 5win & 7win season. Be respectful of every kid that has worn the Maroon & Gold. And, for God's Sake: act like you have been there when 8...9...10 win or above seasons occur.

Every Big Ten School has a lot of resources and every Big Ten School is doing their best to win. It is NEVER easy. It is an honor to be part of the chase.
 


MennoSota said:
Stated as only Wile E. Coyote could state it... [emoji41]
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You may have a point...but, Mr. Coyote just keeps right on chasing...rowing his boat, so to speak as he falls for the Road Runner's tricks and is turned into a fleck of dust time after time when the massive boulder crashes down upon him. Mr. Coyote and the RR have been around since 1948, merely a year less than this renegade rambler poster has been a part of the culture. I guess I am qualified to be an omniscient narrator of the saga of the hapless Mr. Coyote and the master-bating/trick-playing huckster, Mr. Road Runner as he makes a fool of his scheming foe time after time. Time will tell how this all turns out, I would imagine.
 



3 - 9 (I hope I am wrong...but we're young and unproven.)
 

MennoSota said:
3 - 9 (I hope I am wrong...but we're young and unproven.)
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Somewhere hiding under the mass of culture is much more potential than many are recognizing. At the very worst, a potential 6-6 with a bowl loss (6-7) or a bowl win (7-6) or an unassuming VERY good 8-5 with a bowl win may send many on this board to their knees with amazement! Beat the stinking badger, GOPHER! Break through the six win mark and much more is possible. Lurking under the guise of too much youthfulness alluded to by the powers that may be are some red-shirts, juniors and seniors who, if given a chance will produce a VERY respectable season. If ONLY the spinning of the tales of woe depicting the hapless and overmatched youth movement gives way to the utilization of experience, know how and maturity gained by the upper-division academic achievement (so often bragged about) of the more veteran student athletes on the team is fully utilized and incorporated by the coach and the staff in game planning, playing time and leadership on this 2018 GOPHER football team. I see a pretty nice season coming up...a season that I only hope Gopher Football Fans will have the common sense and decency to appreciate.
 

imthewalrus said:
Somewhere hiding under the mass of culture is much more potential than many are recognizing. At the very worst, a potential 6-6 with a bowl loss (6-7) or a bowl win (7-6) or an unassuming VERY good 8-5 with a bowl win may send many on this board to their knees with amazement! Beat the stinking badger, GOPHER! Break through the six win mark and much more is possible. Lurking under the guise of too much youthfulness alluded to by the powers that may be are some red-shirts, juniors and seniors who, if given a chance will produce a VERY respectable season. If ONLY the spinning of the tales of woe depicting the hapless and overmatched youth movement gives way to the utilization of experience, know how and maturity gained by the upper-division academic achievement (so often bragged about) of the more veteran student athletes on the team is fully utilized and incorporated by the coach and the staff in game planning, playing time and leadership on this 2018 GOPHER football team. I see a pretty nice season coming up...a season that I only hope Gopher Football Fans will have the common sense and decency to appreciate.
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you have cheered for gopher football since 1975? you are a beacon to all of us shortimers who bicker about .500 seasons. personally, i dont know how you have done this for so long. I would have gone full reusse by now.
 

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