Gopher07
Captain of Awesome
- Joined
- Nov 20, 2008
- Messages
- 9,008
- Reaction score
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- Points
- 38
Always more fun to update these after a win than after a loss.
The good news is, we're trending in the right direction. From 5-7 preseason to 8-4 now, the formula has liked the Gophers' first three performances much more than our opponents. Somewhat surprisingly however, not much overall movement in the numbers following this weekend's 34-3 thrashing of Middle Tennessee. The final spread was more than double the predicted, but things for the rest of the season didn't move too much - with a few exceptions.
We're now nearly touchdown favorites at home against Nebraska (after being one-point favorites last week), MSU has flipped in our favor, and Illinois has moved into complete-Gopher-blowout territory. All that has the predicted final record at 8-4, which seems reasonable if you believe we win two of @ Purdue, vs MSU, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern and sweep the other likely wins and toss ups. Still, no games moved from toss ups to likely wins this week - the vast majority of our schedule from here on out remains within seven points either way.
One more interesting note - that Purdue line continues to creep down. From -7 preseason, to -3, and now to -2.5. While the Gophers have benefited in the formula, Purdue has benefited even more. That game is going to be very difficult.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State W (Predicted -4.5; Actual -34)
vs Middle Tennessee W (Predicted -14.5; Actual -31)
vs Maryland -6.5
@ Purdue -2.5
vs Michigan State -1.5
vs Illinois -17
@ Iowa +1
@ Michigan +11
vs Nebraska -6.5
@ Northwestern +1
vs Wisconsin +10
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week One
Week Two
Week Three
The good news is, we're trending in the right direction. From 5-7 preseason to 8-4 now, the formula has liked the Gophers' first three performances much more than our opponents. Somewhat surprisingly however, not much overall movement in the numbers following this weekend's 34-3 thrashing of Middle Tennessee. The final spread was more than double the predicted, but things for the rest of the season didn't move too much - with a few exceptions.
We're now nearly touchdown favorites at home against Nebraska (after being one-point favorites last week), MSU has flipped in our favor, and Illinois has moved into complete-Gopher-blowout territory. All that has the predicted final record at 8-4, which seems reasonable if you believe we win two of @ Purdue, vs MSU, @ Iowa, @ Northwestern and sweep the other likely wins and toss ups. Still, no games moved from toss ups to likely wins this week - the vast majority of our schedule from here on out remains within seven points either way.
One more interesting note - that Purdue line continues to creep down. From -7 preseason, to -3, and now to -2.5. While the Gophers have benefited in the formula, Purdue has benefited even more. That game is going to be very difficult.
A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.
vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State W (Predicted -4.5; Actual -34)
vs Middle Tennessee W (Predicted -14.5; Actual -31)
vs Maryland -6.5
@ Purdue -2.5
vs Michigan State -1.5
vs Illinois -17
@ Iowa +1
@ Michigan +11
vs Nebraska -6.5
@ Northwestern +1
vs Wisconsin +10
Final record: 8-4 (5-4)
Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, @ Iowa, vs Nebraska, @ Northwestern
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Michigan, vs Wisconsin
Previous weeks:
Preseason
Week One
Week Two
Week Three