Sagarin Predictions: Week 2

Gopher07

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There's good and bad news coming through the numbers in this week's predictions.

First, the good news is that the formulas like our chances during the non-conference more after the first full weekend of games. Oregon State followed up a pounding at the hands of Colorado State with a clunker of a win against FCS Portland State, while MTSU looked positively awful in losing to Vanderbilt 28-6. We can't take anything for granted, but right now the chances of starting 3-0 don't look that bad.

However, the bad news is that our conference schedule is looking increasingly difficult. Maryland's big win over Texas firmly places that game in the "toss up" category, while Purdue's better-than-expected showing against Louisville means we probably shouldn't chalk that one up as a win just yet either. Meanwhile, Iowa's strong performance pushes our game at Kinnick into the likely loss column, while the gap between us and Michigan and Wisconsin got bigger.

This weekend is a big opportunity for the team, and our first toss-up game. Can't wait.

Go Gophers!

A reminder on how I arrive here, I take Jeff Sagarin's predictor ratings (found here), and calculate what the computer says the spread should be, for now through the end of the season. Negative numbers favor the Gophers, positive favor the opponent.

vs Buffalo W (Predicted -22; Actual -10)
@ Oregon State -4.5
vs Middle Tennessee -12
vs Maryland -1.5
@ Purdue -3
vs Michigan State +7
vs Illinois -10.5
@ Iowa +10.5
@ Michigan +20.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Northwestern +10
vs Wisconsin +18.5

Final record: 6-6 (3-6)

Likely in the W column (>7-point advantage to Minnesota): vs Middle Tennessee, vs Illinois
Toss ups (no team with a greater than 7-point advantage): @ Oregon State, vs Maryland, @ Purdue, vs Michigan State, vs Nebraska
Likely in the L column (>7-point advantage to opponent): @ Iowa, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, vs Wisconsin

Previous weeks:

Preseason
Week One
 

A losing record in conference is no longer acceptable. Any year. Facilities, coach, talent. We have everything it takes. Do we need a new QB coach already? Fleck better be on top that.
 

A losing record in conference is no longer acceptable. Any year. Facilities, coach, talent. We have everything it takes. Do we need a new QB coach already? Fleck better be on top that.

I hear the phrase "not acceptable" or similar phrases a lot.

What does it even mean to people?

Dude in a long line for something said something similar recently.... the result was he just stood in line saying it a lot.
 

I hear the phrase "not acceptable" or similar phrases a lot.

What does it even mean to people?

Dude in a long line for something said something similar recently.... the result was he just stood in line saying it a lot.

Haha. This is so true!
 

A losing record in conference is no longer acceptable. Any year. Facilities, coach, talent. We have everything it takes. Do we need a new QB coach already? Fleck better be on top that.

So 50% of the Kill/Claeys era was unacceptable. Got it.
 




Does .500 count as acceptable? That could tip the scales

Maybe they should have given Claeys another year to see if he could bump it into the acceptable range? Especially since 2 of the last 3 years were acceptable.
 

Maybe they should have given Claeys another year to see if he could bump it into the acceptable range? Especially since 2 of the last 3 years were acceptable.

And that would likely have little affect on Sagarin's ratings to this point of the season.
 




Does Sagarin count wins against Rutgers?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 





I can appreciate the statistical analysis, but at the same time, I have always been wary of using comparative scores. If Team A beats Team B by 20 points, and Team B beats Team C by 10 points, that does not guarantee that Team A will beat Team C by 30 points.

It's about match-ups and schemes. Just because Team A had success against Team B's defensive schemes, that does not necessarily mean that Team A will have the same success against Team C's defensive schemes. Team C may be playing a different scheme - or their personnel may match up better against Team A than Team B did.

Each game is its own entity. Teams may change personnel, or change schemes. There may be injuries. Or, a player could just have a bad day as opposed to a good day. The Gophers could potentially win any game on their schedule - or they could potentially lose any game on their schedule. You have to play the games to find out what happens.
 



I wasn't responding to the OP I was responding to you.

Sagarin has the Gophers at 3-6 in the conference. Diehard then replied that a losing conference record is unacceptable. Then our conversation ensued. I didn't think it was difficult to follow.
 

Thank you for putting this together each week, i always enjoy reading it. Sample size is small for this season and trended the way I expected. Looking forward to your update in 2 weeks!
 

I can appreciate the statistical analysis, but at the same time, I have always been wary of using comparative scores. If Team A beats Team B by 20 points, and Team B beats Team C by 10 points, that does not guarantee that Team A will beat Team C by 30 points.

It's about match-ups and schemes. Just because Team A had success against Team B's defensive schemes, that does not necessarily mean that Team A will have the same success against Team C's defensive schemes. Team C may be playing a different scheme - or their personnel may match up better against Team A than Team B did.

Each game is its own entity. Teams may change personnel, or change schemes. There may be injuries. Or, a player could just have a bad day as opposed to a good day. The Gophers could potentially win any game on their schedule - or they could potentially lose any game on their schedule. You have to play the games to find out what happens.

Of course not. But it probably means that Team A will be a heavy favorite vs Team C.
 

Thank you for putting this together each week, i always enjoy reading it. Sample size is small for this season and trended the way I expected. Looking forward to your update in 2 weeks!

Agree. Something I look forward to and much appreciated!
 

Sagarin has the Gophers at 3-6 in the conference. Diehard then replied that a losing conference record is unacceptable. Then our conversation ensued. I didn't think it was difficult to follow.

I didn't respond to diehard, I responded to you. Geez this isn't so difficult.
 




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