I agree with you on this. Year 6 of Tubby and if his best year is a 5th or 6th place finish and it is his "best" team, then he has not done what he was brought here to do. I agree with you about next year as well, unless something comes up out of the blue, I fail to see how this team is going to be very good at all. There is no evidence of any type of inside game aside from Trevor and Rodney. Looking like next year is going to be Hollins, Hollins, and Coleman scoring 50 points a game and praying for someone else to step up.
All that being said, a 3rd place (even 4th) place finish this year with 11-12 wins and a trip to the sweet 16 would without a doubt buy Tubs a pass for next year, IMO. A 10-8 5th or 6th place finish and another 1st round exit from the tournament followed by what looks to be a tough season next year would be grounds for looking somewhere else, IMO.
I personally think the team this year is a good team, a top 20 team, but not a top 5 team. Expectations got really high really fast in the past 3 weeks, and reality is possibly smacking fans in the face a bit. If I had to bet I think this is an 11 win at least big ten team and should get a 4-5 seed in the big dance. Less than that and I would think there will be a lot of frustrated fans.