Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Should "Lock In" on 22 Wins Prior to Big 10 Tourny

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St John's

upnorthkid said:
Seems like it's survive and move forward at this time and don't pick up any bad losses. That St John's loss may not end up looking as bad as we thought, especially when comparing it to our B10 cohorts.
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The loss was not bad at all, but it was a missed chance at a top 50 victory.

The downstream impacts are what really hurt. Overall strength of schedule would have been helped by having the Zags on the schedule, plus it would have been a chance at a top 25 win.
 

Obviously the RPI isn't that relevant until February rolls around, but if you take a look at it now it's definitely starting to take shape. Most of the teams in the RPI top 25 are good basketball teams, and familiar names.

How much did winless Southern U play a part in affecting the Gophers' RPI? The Gophers were #64 heading into last night's game, after the win they're now #94.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Obviously the RPI isn't that relevant until February rolls around, but if you take a look at it now it's definitely starting to take shape. Most of the teams in the RPI top 25 are good basketball teams, and familiar names.

How much did winless Southern U play a part in affecting the Gophers' RPI? The Gophers were #64 heading into last night's game, after the win they're now #94.
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The ability for a win to hurt your RPI is what bothers me about the RPI as a metric. It doesn't make any sense that a hypothetical team who is 2-0 with wins against Kentucky and Duke would be ranked lower than a team who is 3-0 with wins against Kentucky, Duke, and a bottom-feeder like Southern. Also, this is why I am bothered by us scheduling bottom-feeders like Southern, but I have voiced my complaints about that plenty of times already.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
The ability for a win to hurt your RPI is what bothers me about the RPI as a metric. It doesn't make any sense that a hypothetical team who is 2-0 with wins against Kentucky and Duke would be ranked lower than a team who is 3-0 with wins against Kentucky, Duke, and a bottom-feeder like Southern. Also, this is why I am bothered by us scheduling bottom-feeders like Southern, but I have voiced my complaints about that plenty of times already.
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I completely understand where you're coming from, but the RPI does work both ways in that respect, for better or worse. I'd argue that the Gophers playing and losing to Duke two years ago played a significant part in the Gophers making the tournament. Yes, the Gophers had a couple solid wins outside of the Big Ten (Memphis, Stanford), but the simple fact they played Duke was huge, as well.
 

Updated through Seattle: 9-2 record, 13 more wins to get to 22

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 11 (Seattle).

Level 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 6-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON 109-57)
UMBC -- (WON 69-51)
Western Carolina -- (WON 84-64)
North Dakota -- (WON 92-56)
Southern U -- (WON 85-57)
Seattle -- (WON 92-57)
Furman (Monday)
NC-Wilmington (Saturday)

Average Margin of Victory: +31.5

Level 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON 76-54)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Average Margin of Victory: +22

Level 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise. (currently 1-0)
@ Wake Forest -- (WON 84-69)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Average Margin of Victory: +15

Level 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST 61-70)
vs. Georgia (WON 66-62)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Average Point Differential: +3

Level 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST 68-81)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Average Margin of Defeat: -13

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 


Thanks for the updates SS.

Season is still very young, just hope that opportunity to beat St. John's and take on Gonzaga doesn't hurt us in the end. That said, the Gophers have a ton of opportunities entering conference play to make their mark.
 

These charts are fun to look at and debate, and SS does a great service by putting them together at the beginning of the year.

But at the end of the day IMO the number(s) that matter is 11-7 in the B1G, period. Won't matter what "tier" the wins fall in or what path we take to get there. Just get to 11 conference wins and we're in.
 

WanderingGopher said:
These charts are fun to look at and debate, and SS does a great service by putting them together at the beginning of the year.

But at the end of the day IMO the number(s) that matter is 11-7 in the B1G, period. Won't matter what "tier" the wins fall in or what path we take to get there. Just get to 11 conference wins and we're in.
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Eleven wins will mean at least a few higher tier wins. Gophers have a favorable schedule to win games, even if we are missing out on some high quality home games on the schedule.
 

With the the dumpster fire that the Big Ten has been out of conference, are we still confident that 22 wins is the magic number?
 



afurry91 said:
With the the dumpster fire that the Big Ten has been out of conference, are we still confident that 22 wins is the magic number?
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As I've said before, not deviating from what was posted prior to the season (22 wins). Would defeat the purprose of why I wrote it.

But for the most part, yes, I agree with what WanderingGopher says. Assuming the Gophers beat Furman and UNCW, that's 11 wins, and certainly 11 more in the Big Ten is likely to put them in a really good spot for the NCAA. That was the primary purpose of the column, to point to an absolute number that should get the Gophers to a "stress-free" Selection Sunday.

That said, based on what we know so far, I still wouldn't want to have less than 22 (prior to the Big Ten tourney). Could get dicey, as you pointed out. ... Big Ten not as strong this year, and that has a trickle down effect, especially if you don't beat enough of the "right" (read: good) teams in conference play. Georgia really helping out the Gophers right now, now in the top 30 of the RPI.
 

SS, thanks for doing this. Good stuff as always.

What is your general feeling on the likelihood of getting to 22, now that you've seen a bit of both the Gophers and their opponents? I know it's hard to predict that far ahead but you seem to have a knack for at least being in the right ballpark with your predictions.
 

Golden_Sloth said:
SS, thanks for doing this. Good stuff as always.

What is your general feeling on the likelihood of getting to 22, now that you've seen a bit of both the Gophers and their opponents? I know it's hard to predict that far ahead but you seem to have a knack for at least being in the right ballpark with your predictions.
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I'm holding back on the temptation of getting too high on the Gophers because of the quality of their recent competition. Want to see those first 2 road games (+ the OSU home opener) -- how do the Gophs respond when they get punched in the mouth in a hostile environment? -- and then I think we'll have a much better feel for what we really have. Like what I'm seeing much more so than earlier in the season, but impossible to know how beating this lengthy chain of lesser opponents is going to translate to Big Ten competition.

Certainly with the struggles other teams have had (other than Bucky), 22 wins looks doable. The Big Ten is solid, but nowhere near as good as it was last season. I think 11-7 (at worst 10-8) is a reasonable expectation at this point, all things considered. Would be quite concerned with anything less than a 2-1 start.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I'm holding back on the temptation of getting too high on the Gophers because of the quality of their recent competition. Want to see those first 2 road games (+ the OSU home opener) -- how do the Gophs respond when they get punched in the mouth in a hostile environment? -- and then I think we'll have a much better feel for what we really have. Like what I'm seeing much more so than earlier in the season, but impossible to know how beating this lengthy chain of lesser opponents is going to translate to Big Ten competition.

Certainly with the struggles other teams have had (other than Bucky), 22 wins looks doable. The Big Ten is solid, but nowhere near as good as it was last season. I think 11-7 (at worst 10-8) is a reasonable expectation at this point, all things considered. Would be quite concerned with anything less than a 2-1 start.
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While I would like a 2-1 start, 1-2 won't have me pushing the panic button. Winning at Purdue is always tricky, at Maryland looks like one of the 4 toughest games on the schedule and OSU is (was?) ranked. We still should beat Purdue and OSU. But losing one of these two is hardly a disaster.
 



SelectionSunday said:
As I've said before, not deviating from what was posted prior to the season (22 wins). Would defeat the purprose of why I wrote it.

But for the most part, yes, I agree with what WanderingGopher says. Assuming the Gophers beat Furman and UNCW, that's 11 wins, and certainly 11 more in the Big Ten is likely to put them in a really good spot for the NCAA. That was the primary purpose of the column, to point to an absolute number that should get the Gophers to a "stress-free" Selection Sunday.

That said, based on what we know so far, I still wouldn't want to have less than 22 (prior to the Big Ten tourney). Could get dicey, as you pointed out. ... Big Ten not as strong this year, and that has a trickle down effect, especially if you don't beat enough of the "right" (read: good) teams in conference play. Georgia really helping out the Gophers right now, now in the top 30 of the RPI.
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Officially it would be only 10 wins.
 


SelectionSunday said:
Yep. That's why I just went ahead and used 22 instead of 21. Didn't want to confuse people! Just count the non/DI and be done with it.
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Ok I gotcha. I'm sick of playing D2 teams two years in a row. Hopefully we don't have to play anymore D2 teams for a long time.
 

Road to 22 through Furman: 10-2 record, 12 more wins to get to 22

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 12 (Furman).

LEVEL 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (currently 7-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON 109-57)
UMBC -- (WON 69-51)
Western Carolina -- (WON 84-64)
North Dakota -- (WON 92-56)
Southern U -- (WON 85-57)
Seattle -- (WON 92-57)
Furman (WON 86-76)
NC-Wilmington (Saturday)

Average Margin of Victory: +28.4

LEVEL 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON 76-54)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Average Margin of Victory: +22

LEVEL 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise. (currently 1-0)
@ Wake Forest -- (WON 84-69)
@ Purdue (Dec. 31)
@ Maryland (Jan. 3)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Average Margin of Victory: +15

LEVEL 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST 61-70)
vs. Georgia (WON 66-62)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Average Point Differential: -2.5

LEVEL 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST 68-81)
Ohio State (Jan. 6)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Average Margin of Defeat: -13

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 

DeathClutch said:
Ok I gotcha. I'm sick of playing D2 teams two years in a row. Hopefully we don't have to play anymore D2 teams for a long time.
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I'm sick of D-II as well, but to be fair, this year's D-II was not planned by our schedulers. It ended up in our lap when the preseason NIT nearly imploded. Stick with reasonably high profile preseason tournaments and we should be able to avoid the D-II trap in the future. Now we can get going on upgrading the D-I schedule!
 

It was a good night to be at Williams Arena. Great to see the Gophers get tested to the limit, and they responded well & kept their poise when Furman was playing lights out. Gophers never flinched. It would have been easy to do with all the Incarnate Word, NJIT, Gardner-Webb, etc., upsets happening all across the country, but they never did. That was a good sign.

There was some electricity in The Barn, and I think Pitino had a lot to do with it. He showed a good feel for what was going on. He sensed/gathered the fans were getting tight & sitting on their hands, so he took it upon himself to get the crowd going (with the arm waving). He could not have done that at a more opportune time. The crowd responded & was pretty much jacked the rest of the way after that. For awhile there it actually "felt" like Williams Arena, and, dare I say, like a Big Ten game? It's been awhile. We got a taste of what's coming starting next week.
 

Last year

Holy Man said:
I'm sick of D-II as well, but to be fair, this year's D-II was not planned by our schedulers. It ended up in our lap when the preseason NIT nearly imploded. Stick with reasonably high profile preseason tournaments and we should be able to avoid the D-II trap in the future. Now we can get going on upgrading the D-I schedule!
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Last year's DII foe (Chaminade) could have been avoided had the Gophers beat either Syracuse or Arkansas. Fans can point to losing to Northwestern at the buzzer and Purdue in OT, but I really think it was losing to the Razorbacks that kept the Gophers out of the dance.

Pitino seems to have rationalized those losses for the soft non-conference schedule (excluding games against his old man or the preseason NIT).
 



Updated through UNC-Wilmington: 11-2, 11 wins needed to reach 22

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 13 (UNC-Wilmington).

LEVEL 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (finished 8-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON 109-57)
UMBC -- (WON 69-51)
Western Carolina -- (WON 84-64)
North Dakota -- (WON 92-56)
Southern U -- (WON 85-57)
Seattle -- (WON 92-57)
Furman (WON 86-76)
NC-Wilmington (WON 108-82)

Average Margin of Victory: +28.1

LEVEL 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON 76-54)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Average Margin of Victory: +22

LEVEL 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise. (currently 1-0)
@ Wake Forest -- (WON 84-69)
@ Purdue (today)
@ Maryland (Saturday)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Average Margin of Victory: +15

LEVEL 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST 61-70)
vs. Georgia (WON 66-62)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Average Point Differential: -2.5

LEVEL 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST 68-81)
Ohio State (Tuesday)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Average Margin of Defeat: -13

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 

Updated through Purdue game: 11-3, still need 11 wins to get to 22

Updated Gophers' road to 22 wins through Game 14 (@ Purdue).

LEVEL 5 (8-0) -- Cupcakes, i.e., basically the non-conference home schedule. (finished 8-0)
Franklin Pierce -- (WON 109-57)
UMBC -- (WON 69-51)
Western Carolina -- (WON 84-64)
North Dakota -- (WON 92-56)
Southern U -- (WON 85-57)
Seattle -- (WON 92-57)
Furman (WON 86-76)
NC-Wilmington (WON 108-82)

Average Margin of Victory: +28.1

LEVEL 4 (5-0) -- Decent foes but home losses would hurt resume. (currently 1-0)
Western Kentucky -- (WON 76-54)
Rutgers (Jan. 17)
Purdue (Feb. 7)
Northwestern (Feb. 18)
Penn State (March 8)

Average Margin of Victory: +22

LEVEL 3 (3-2) -- Should expect Gopher win but loss wouldn't be huge surprise. (currently 1-1)
@ Wake Forest (WON 84-69)
@ Purdue (LOST 68-72)
@ Maryland (Saturday)
@ Penn State (Jan. 28)
@ Indiana (Feb. 15)

Average Point Differential: +5.5

LEVEL 2 (4-3) -- Opponents most similar to Gophers, realistic NCAA expectations. (currently 1-1)
@ Saint John's (LOST 61-70)
vs. Georgia (WON 66-62)
Iowa (Jan. 13)
@ Nebraska (Jan. 20)
Illinois (Jan. 24)
Nebraska (Jan. 31)
@ Iowa (Feb. 12)

Average Point Differential: -2.5

LEVEL 1 (2-4) -- Big-boy pants; every NCAA resume needs at least a couple big knockers. (currently 0-1)
vs. Louisville -- (LOST 68-81)
Ohio State (Tuesday)
@ Michigan (Jan. 10)
@ Wisconsin (Feb. 21)
@ Michigan State (Feb. 26)
Wisconsin (March 5)

Average Margin of Defeat: -13

Go 22-9 (21-9 vs, DI opponents) and percentages are the Gophers will have at least five or six RPI top-50 wins. That would be more than enough to earn them a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As a comparison, last season the Gophers only had two RPI top-50 wins (Wisconsin, Ohio State), along with two others (#54 Florida State, #56 Iowa) just outside the top 50.
 



Certainly still have a chance at being 3-2 in Level 3. I always subscribe to "don't have to be the better team, just be better today". Much less daunting.
 

St. Johns guard Rysheed Jordan has taken an indefinite leave of absence. Seeing that the Johnnies already play a very tight rotation, it is a pretty big blow for them. Doesn't help our resume either.
 

4 of the 11 wins Gophers still need

2 games of conference data is enough to see that 4 of the wins should come from Northwestern, Penn State, and Rutgers. If the Gophers lose games to any of those 3. ... yikes.
 

Using SS' breakdown, we are now off pace in the top 3 groups. Can't believe I a feeling like we are facing a "must win" (I know the term gets overused, and I am probably overusing it) game in the second week of January.
 

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