Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Likely Need 3 Wins To Garner #10 BT Tournament Seed

[GopherHole Staff]

Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Likely Need 3 Wins To Garner #10 B1G Tournament Seed
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/476568?referrer_id=388419

UNITED CENTER, U.S.A. -- Today, let's not talk about the bubble. There will be plenty of time for that discussion coming in the next five weeks. Let's talk about the conference tournament most of us will have more than a passing interest in, the Big Ten Tournament (BTT), which will run March 11-15 at Chicago's United Center.

We're far enough into the Big Ten schedule where we can start to get a bit of a feel for what the BTT bracket will look like when the #12 and #13 seeds open the tournament at 3:30 p.m. March 11. Locally, as the bracket sits today, our Gophers (4-7 B1G) would be the #11 seed facing #14 Northwestern (1-9) at 6 p.m. March 11. With seven games left in their regular season, a modest but not necessarily easily attainable goal for the Gophers should be to finish in the top 10. Getting to at least the #10 seed means the Gophers wouldn't have to play until Thursday significant because -- though neither task is enviable -- it's a lot easier to win four games in four days to win the BTT than five games in five days. Simple math.

Today's exercise is about eye-balling what every Big Ten team has left on its schedule. Who appears to have the easiest remaining schedule? Who has the most difficult slate staring them in the face? Projecting ahead, where is each team most likely to land in the BTT bracket? Who's likely to be locked into the NCAA Tournament before the BTT even starts? And to me, the most important and intriguing question, which teams will be directly on or near the bubble as the tournament gets underway?

For starters, let's take a look-see at who has the easiest path between now and the end of the regular season. Teams are listed in order of the easiest remaining schedule to most difficult, based on opponents' conference winning percentage. Noted with each team will be the current record of their remaining opponents (with winning %), and the number of home and road games remaining on their schedule.


Winning Percentage of Remaining Opponents (easiest to toughest)

1. Iowa (29-58, .333) -- 4 home/4 road

2. Indiana (33-42, .440) -- 4 home/3 road

3. Michigan (29-36, .446) -- 3 home/3 road

4. Purdue (35-43, .449) -- 3 home/4 road

5. Maryland (37-41, .474) -- 4 home/3 road

6. Wisconsin (42-45, .483) -- 3 home/5 road

7. Northwestern (41-43, .488) -- 5 home/3 road

8. Ohio State (39-37, .513) -- 4 home/3 road

9. Michigan State (47-40, .540) -- 3 home/5 road

10. Illinois (40-34, .541) -- 4 home/3 road

11. Penn State (41-33, .554) -- 4 home/3 road

12. GOPHERS (41-31, .569) -- 3 home/4 road

13. Rutgers (40-26, .606) -- 3 home/3 road

14. Nebraska (49-26, .653) -- 3 home/4 road



Remaining Schedule (in order of current seedings)

1. Wisconsin (9-1) -- @ Nebraska, Illinois, @ Penn State, Gophers, @ Maryland, Michigan State, @ Gophers, @ Ohio State

2. Purdue (7-4) -- @ Rutgers, Nebraska, @ Indiana, Rutgers, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, Illinois

3. Ohio State (7-4) -- Penn State, @ Michigan State, @ Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, @ Penn State, Wisconsin

4. Indiana (7-4) -- @ Maryland, Gophers, Purdue, @ Rutgers, @ Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan State

5. Maryland (7-4) -- Indiana, @ Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska

6. Michigan State (6-4) -- @ Northwestern, Ohio State, @ Michigan, @ Illinois, Gophers, @ Wisconsin, Purdue, @ Indiana

7. Iowa (6-4) -- Gophers, @ Northwestern, Rutgers, @ Nebraska, Illinois, @ Penn State, @ Indiana, Northwestern

8. Illinois (6-5) -- Michigan, @ Wisconsin, Michigan State, @ Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, @ Purdue

9. Michigan (6-6) -- @ Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Maryland, @ Northwestern, Rutgers

10. Nebraska (5-6) -- Wisconsin, @ Purdue, @ Maryland, Iowa, @ Ohio State, @ Illinois, Maryland

11. GOPHERS (4-7) -- @ Iowa, @ Indiana, Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State

12. Penn State (3-8) -- @ Ohio State, Maryland, Wisconsin, @ Northwestern, Iowa, Ohio State, @ Gophers

13. Rutgers (2-10) -- Purdue, @ Iowa, Indiana, @ Purdue, Maryland, @ Michigan

14. Northwestern (1-9) -- Michigan State, Iowa, @ Gophers, Penn State, Indiana, @ Illinois, Michigan, @ Iowa

***Gophers/Northwestern winner would play Michigan State on Thursday

BTT Record/Seed Projection

1. Wisconsin (16-2)

2. Ohio State (13-5)

3. Indiana (12-6)

4. Iowa (12-6)

5. Maryland (12-6)

6. Purdue (11-7)

7. Illinois (10-8)

8. Michigan State (10-8)

9. Michigan (8-10)

10. GOPHERS (7-11)

11. Nebraska (6-12)

12. Penn State (5-13)

13. Northwestern (2-16)

14. Rutgers (2-16)

Projected NCAA Tournament Locks (5)

Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland

On The Bubble (1)

Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State

Any Wins Help Chances For NIT Bid (2)

Michigan, GOPHERS

Summary

This year is unusual because of the down year for the conference. The Big Ten teams most likely to end up on the bubble (Purdue, Illinois, Sparty) don't have much for quality wins outside the conference, or within the conference, for that matter. The reduced number of quality wins available within the Big Ten (not to mention several ugly non-conference losses) makes it much more difficult to have a NCAA-quality resume. Hence, that's why you're seeing some 10-8/11-7 teams that won't necessarily be locks for the tournament. Most seasons they would be. This certainly could change leading up to Selection Sunday, obviously, but as of now don't make an assumption that 9-9 or better in the Big Ten means a team is a lock for the Big Dance.

 

[Go4]

its hard to see us getting more than 2 wins the rest of the way, but a win at iowa or over uw should be expected with our veteran group.

 

[SelectionSunday]

its hard to see us getting more than 2 wins the rest of the way. ...

Agree with that, but even with their road struggles the percentages are the Gophers will win a road game. ... it's really hard for a decent team (which the Gophers are) to go winless in 9 road games. Not sure who it'll be, my guess would be Michigan State, but in my final Big Ten standings projection I'm banking on home wins over Northwestern & Penn State + a road win over Iowa, Indiana, or Sparty. (not Wisconsin, though)

 

[WanderingGopher]

I'm not so concerned about playing "an extra game" in the BTT. IMO the key is getting whatever seed will prevent us from being matched up against Wisconsin in the quarterfinals (and hopefully the semi's). There's a huge difference between Wisconsin and then the next 9 or 10 similar teams in our conference, of which we are one. Throw us into the mix with all those other teams, and we could go on a run.

My guess is we'll finish the conference with about 7 wins and will need to go to the BTT final, not necessarily have to win it, to make the tourney. I think we could do it if we don't have to play Wisconsin until the final.

 

[WanderingGopher]

...how does the bracket work this year? Is it fixed at the beginning, or re-seeded after the play-in rounds?

(So if we were the 10 seed, would we open vs #7 on the second day, with the winner playing #2?)

 

[SelectionSunday]

...how does the bracket work this year? Is it fixed at the beginning, or re-seeded after the play-in rounds?

(So if we were the 10 seed, would we open vs #7 on the second day, with the winner playing #2?)

It's never re-seeded. Yes, if Gophers are #10 they're in the 2-7-10 part of the bracket.

 

[WanderingGopher]

Interesting. We're in a tricky position. 10 would be good, maybe best we can realistically hope for at this point. First day off and then win two, maybe three against similar opponents and we're in the B1G semis or final and probably punched our ticket to NCAAs.

#8 or 9 would be the worst -- worse than #11 or 12 in my opinion.

 

[howeda7]

What's the tie-breaker if we end up tied with Nebraska?

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

My guess is we'll finish the conference with about 7 wins and will need to go to the BTT final, not necessarily have to win it, to make the tourney. I think we could do it if we don't have to play Wisconsin until the final.

So you're saying the Gophers can get in with a 7-11 record in a very mediocre B1G with no signature wins and a 2nd place finish in the B1G tournament? Not a chance. Maybe that would be good for a #2 seed in the NIT.

 

[howeda7]

So you're saying the Gophers can get in with a 7-11 record in a very mediocre B1G with no signature wins and a 2nd place finish in the B1G tournament? Not a chance. Maybe that would be good for a #2 seed in the NIT.

Yeah. Not this year. 11 B1G wins total to be safe. 8-10 with a run to the title game might do it, but not 7-11. I'd prefer 9-9 with two BTT wins.

 

[SelectionSunday]

The 8-10 scenario

I prefer not to address it because it's highly unlikely, but of course I'll take a stab at it!

If there is to be hope for a Gopher bid with an 8-10 mark (+ 2/3 wins in BTT), it's imperative:

(1) 1 of the wins must come vs. Wisconsin; the road game would be preferable.

(2) 1 of the wins preferably would be Michigan State, even though Sparty currently is outside the RPI top 50 (Iowa & IU are in the top 50). The reason I think MSU is a little more important is because Sparty is one of the teams we'd most likely be sharing the bubble with. ... Illinois and Purdue would be the others. A win over Sparty would mean the Gophers were 3-1 vs. their B1G bubble brethren.

So let's say heading to Chicago the Gophers are 8-10 win those 2 wins (+ the presumed home wins over Northwestern & Penn State). The resume would be still be a little soft (poor road/neutral record, medicore at best NC schedule, not a great record vs. the RPI top 100), but at least there'd be something to work with. The RPI would probably be in the 50s by then. My guess is there'd be 3 top-50 wins at that time (Georgia, Illinois, Wisconsin). Add at least 1 more, most likely in the quarterfinals, and who knows?

 

[BleedGopher]

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Go Gophers!!

 

[SelectionSunday]

What's the tie-breaker if we end up tied with Nebraska?

Head to head would be a wash. Then it goes to best winning % vs. the top team in the standings (presumably that will be Wisconsin), and so forth until the tie is broken. That's why a win over Bucky would help us in more ways than one unless, perhaps, Nebraska beats the Badgers tomorrow night. That would be a really bad result for the Gophers seeding wise.

 

[Holy Man]

FWIW, I confirmed my travel plans to be in Chicago in time to be watching 12-13 game at 3:30 on March 11, along with 13-15 other non family members watching the play in games. Here's hoping the Gophers get that day off.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Will look forward to catching up, Holy Man. Will be there Wednesday as well. Wondering if there'll be more than 1,000 people there!

 

[dannygopher9100]

Say we win our next 3. [hard to do] That makes us 18-9 and 7-7 in Big Ten play. Will we get looked at? Or do we have to win these next three and somehow also beat Wisconsin and Michigan State on the road to even get noticed. Also I would love for this team to make a run at the BTT like we did in 2010, that was fun.

 

[cjbfbp]

Say we win our next 3. [hard to do] That makes us 18-9 and 7-7 in Big Ten play. Will we get looked at? Or do we have to win these next three and somehow also beat Wisconsin and Michigan State on the road to even get noticed. Also I would love for this team to make a run at the BTT like we did in 2010, that was fun.

I don't think we have much chance unless we get to at least 8-10 and make one hell of a run (like to the final game) in the Big Ten tournament. 9-9 and 1 or 2 wins in the Big Ten tournament might get us there but I don't think we can finish 9-9 in the conference. That 0-5 start was a killer.

 

[cjbfbp]

I prefer not to address it because it's highly unlikely, but of course I'll take a stab at it!

If there is to be hope for a Gopher bid with an 8-10 mark (+ 2/3 wins in BTT), it's imperative:

(1) 1 of the wins must come vs. Wisconsin; the road game would be preferable.

(2) 1 of the wins preferably would be Michigan State, even though Sparty currently is outside the RPI top 50 (Iowa & IU are in the top 50). The reason I think MSU is a little more important is because Sparty is one of the teams we'd most likely be sharing the bubble with. ... Illinois and Purdue would be the others. A win over Sparty would mean the Gophers were 3-1 vs. their B1G bubble brethren.

If they go 8-10, I think they would have to go to the final game of the Big Ten tournament (3 wins) to have a serious chance. An 8-10 record would give them some quality wins over the remaining schedule (2 wins from Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State on the road or Wisconsin at home). The three wins in the Big Ten tournament would also be fair to high quality wins. I think the resume would be good enough in that event but the question remains whether the committee will let them jump other teams that didn't have a losing conference record. I don't think two wins would be enough for them to jump other teams.

In any event, I agree that this event is unlikely and the Gophers are probably just playing for NIT seeding the rest of the season.

 

[Cayman]

If they go 8-10, I think they would have to go to the final game of the Big Ten tournament (3 wins) to have a serious chance. An 8-10 record would give them some quality wins over the remaining schedule (2 wins from Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan State on the road or Wisconsin at home). The three wins in the Big Ten tournament would also be fair to high quality wins. I think the resume would be good enough in that event but the question remains whether the committee will let them jump other teams that didn't have a losing conference record. I don't think two wins would be enough for them to jump other teams.

In any event, I agree that this event is unlikely and the Gophers are probably just playing for NIT seeding the rest of the season.

As far as jumping other Big Ten teams into the NCAA tournament, we do have going in our favor the fact that we don't have any bad losses out of conference. I know Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Purdue all have at least one.

 

[GameDay]

I'm sorry, but I have to draw a line at something. This is crazy talk.