Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Had Impressive RPI At This Time Last Year, Too

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I'm not as concerned about straight numbers when it comes to conference wins. But, one thing I want this team to do is win at home. I'm talking like 8-1, maybe a loss to IU or Michigan. Other than that, we need to take care of home turf. You get those 8 at home, then suddenly, just like 4-5 on the road gives you a 12 win conference year. Taking care of home makes things so much easier.
 

Yep. The Gophers haven't exactly been Titans at home the last few years, at least not against quality competition. That needs to change this season -- especially with this experienced squad -- and it starts with State on New Year's Eve.
 

I don't think the importance of the game against MSU can be overestimated. Assuming a win against Lafayette, we will be going into the conference season with a big question mark as to how big we are. We will have lost to Duke, and beaten everyone else. Unfortunately everyone else is 71st or worse in the RPI. So we could be anywhere from the 2nd to 70th best team in the country. A game, on our home court, against the 51st RPI team could go a long way towards showing we can do more than beat up on teams who won't be gettting at large NCAA bids.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yep. The Gophers haven't exactly been Titans at home the last few years, at least not against quality competition. That needs to change this season -- especially with this experienced squad -- and it starts with State on New Year's Eve.
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You want them to play like Detroit-Mercy at home? ;)
 

UIC

Think I jinxed UIC. Give the Flames a little love and what do they do in their next game? They fall 70-54 to Jim Molinari's Western Illinois squad, albeit WIU is pretty solid. Remind me not to say anything nice about the Gophers.
 


How on earth does a team give up 70 to WIU? Yikes.

347th most possessions per game and 231st offense, and 39-38 loser to savannah state earlier this season.
 

Molinari's teams definitely known more for their defense. Did not expect either team to hit the 70 mark.
 

Today's RPI Forecast based on the Sagarin Predictor has the Gopher's probable RPI at 7.7 (4th in the country) for the end of the conference season with the #1 RPI SOS. Most likely outcome is a 3 way tie for 2nd with a 12-6 record in conference.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
12-31Michigan St. (37.9)B10H0-077%8.7
1-6Northwestern (88.5)B10H0-089%14.4
1-9Illinois (19.0)B10A0-049%-0.3
1-12Indiana (10.1)B10A0-023%-8.8
1-17Michigan (11.8)B10H0-061%3.2
1-23Northwestern (88.5)B10A0-070%6.3
1-26Wisconsin (54.3)B10A0-044%-1.7
1-29Nebraska (137.5)B10H0-097%21.9
2-3Iowa (58.6)B10H0-082%10.6
2-6Michigan St. (37.9)B10A0-052%0.5
2-10Illinois (19.0)B10H0-075%7.9
2-14Wisconsin (54.3)B10H0-071%6.5
2-17Iowa (58.6)B10A0-058%2.4
2-20Ohio St. (22.6)B10A0-039%-3.3
2-26Indiana (10.1)B10H0-048%-0.7
3-2Penn St. (201.2)B10H0-099%26.3
3-6Nebraska (137.5)B10A0-088%13.7
3-9Purdue (145.0)B10A0-076%8.5

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I'd take a three-way tie for second at 12-6 in a heartbeat. That would mean no game for the Gophers on Thursday in Chicago.

Set the tone. Beat State. The Green & White is ripe for a beatdown. I see a double-digit win in the Gophers' near future (Dec. 31).
 



Mr.Pomeroy
Fri Nov 9 26 280 American W, 72-36 58 Home 1-0
Mon Nov 12 17 175 Toledo W, 82-56 72 Home 2-0
Thu Nov 15 15 225 Tennessee St. W, 72-43 71 Home 3-0
Sun Nov 18 12 68 Richmond W, 72-57 65 Home 4-0
Thu Nov 22 12 3 Duke L, 89-71 72 Neutral 4-1
Fri Nov 23 14 35 Memphis W, 84-75 71 Neutral 5-1
Sat Nov 24 14 39 Stanford W, 66-63 65 Neutral 6-1
Tue Nov 27 13 74 Florida St. W, 77-68 64 Away 7-1
Sat Dec 1 11 224 North Florida W, 87-59 72 Home 8-1
Tue Dec 4 9 145 South Dakota St. W, 88-64 68 Home 9-1
Sat Dec 8 10 110 Southern California W, 71-57 72 Away 10-1
Tue Dec 11 10 55 North Dakota St. W, 70-57 62 Home 11-1
Sat Dec 22 292 Lafayette W, 85-55 67 99% Home
Mon Dec 31 18 Michigan St. W, 67-61 65 71% Home
Sun Jan 6 87 Northwestern W, 72-57 63 91% Home
Wed Jan 9 31 Illinois W, 69-67 67 56% Away
Sat Jan 12 2 Indiana L, 77-67 69 18% Away
Thu Jan 17 9 Michigan W, 66-63 62 58% Home
Wed Jan 23 87 Northwestern W, 68-60 63 77% Away
Sat Jan 26 15 Wisconsin L, 64-61 62 40% Away
Tue Jan 29 205 Nebraska W, 71-51 62 97% Home
Sun Feb 3 44 Iowa W, 76-65 69 83% Home
Wed Feb 6 18 Michigan St. L, 65-63 65 44% Away
Sun Feb 10 31 Illinois W, 73-64 67 80% Home
Thu Feb 14 15 Wisconsin W, 65-60 62 68% Home
Sun Feb 17 44 Iowa W, 71-68 69 61% Away
Wed Feb 20 8 Ohio St. L, 71-66 67 30% Away
Tue Feb 26 2 Indiana L, 73-71 69 42% Home
Sat Mar 2 186 Penn St. W, 76-55 64 97% Home
Wed Mar 6 205 Nebraska W, 67-54 62 91% Away
Sat Mar 9 65 Purdue W, 68-62 67 70% Away
Projected record: 24-7 12-6
Chance of unbeaten record: 0.01%
 

tjgopher said:
That, of course, doesn't take into consideration home court and other factors. We will almost certainly be underdogs at Michigan State, at Iowa, and at Wisconsin - all teams ranked below us (right now). So, technically, we would need to pull three upsets to get to 12 wins in your scenario. That said, we could be slight favorites against Illinois at home (ranked ahead of us).

The fact of the matter is, we have a TOUGH schedule. We only get to play Penn State and Purdue once (road games). We miss Michigan and Ohio State (TOUGH home games). We play the toughest SOS in Big Ten play (according to KenPom). Take for instance Iowa (who plays the weakest SOS in the Big Ten) - they only play Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois once. They get to play PSU, NW, NEB, PU each twice (could be 7-8 wins right there). So, while both Iowa and Minnesota skips Michigan and Ohio State each once, Iowa gets to play PSU and Purdue twice and Illinois and MSU once. Minnesota meanwhile has to play Illinois twice and MSU twice, but skips Purdue and PSU a second time. Put another way, I think there are eight teams in the Big Ten that have legit NCAA hopes. Minnesota plays those teams 12 times. Iowa plays those teams 10 times. That alone could account for a two-game swing between the Iowa and Minnesota.
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But But But...anything less than 12 wins is unacceptable! No excuses for mediocrity! Fire Tubby!
 

Updated RPI Numbers: Gophers #13, but nonconference foes doing little of note

Some fairly significant changes since Monday morning. Overall, Gophers' nonconference opponents are doing nothing of note, all losing their key games this week. ... i.e. Richmond to Kansas, Stanford to NC State, and South Dakota State to Belmont.

Monday's RPI rating (Jerry Palm) is listed in parentheses.

Big Ten RPI Rankings
3. Michigan (2)
5. Illinois (same)
13. Minnesota (11)
16. Indiana (18)
42. Michigan State (51)
44. Ohio State (33)
62. Iowa (53)
70. Nebraska (79)
72. Northwestern (64)
127. Wisconsin (128)
138. Penn State (149)
173. Purdue (178)

Gopher Nonconference Opponents
1. Duke (same)
79. North Dakota State (72)
84. Richmond (113) -- Spiders get a huge bump for playing Kansas.
103. Stanford (107)
118. USC (115)
140. Memphis (129)
151. South Dakota State (156) -- slight bump despite getting throttled by Belmont; playing @ New Mexico will help, too
187. Tennessee State (189) -- TSU has been a disappointment to the Gophers' SOS
199. Florida State (162) -- ditto for the Seminoles
212. North Florida (175)
230. Toledo (228)
300. American (264) -- RPI plummet gives Gophers two opponents with 300+ RPI
314. Lafayette (303)

Average RPI of Gophers' Nonconference Opponents (excludes Lafayette): 150.33
Preseason Projected Average RPI of Gophers' Nonconference Opponents: 136.909
 




Memphis is struggling at home with Lipscomb tonight. It's tough to make much out of that Memphis-Stanford-FSU stretch when they have all struggled for much if the non-conference. They were consistently the better team though is those contests.
 

Checked the rpi tonight and Indiana has some how vaulted to #3. What the heck happened in the last 2 days to make that big of a difference?
 

Gophers09 said:
Checked the rpi tonight and Indiana has some how vaulted to #3. What the heck happened in the last 2 days to make that big of a difference?
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I'm guessing you are using RealTimeRPI. If you are, then you are actually looking at Team Power Ratiings, not RPI. If you click on the "switch to RPI Ratings" link, then you see Indiana is ranked #19 in RPI. The Power Rankings and RPI rankings are different.
 

tjgopher said:
I'm guessing you are using RealTimeRPI. If you are, then you are actually looking at Team Power Ratiings, not RPI. If you click on the "switch to RPI Ratings" link, then you see Indiana is ranked #19 in RPI. The Power Rankings and RPI rankings are different.
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Ahh...you have pieced it together perfectly. I'll blame it on the little phone screen.
 

USC loses at home to UC Irvine. Starting to think the Gophers' best nonconference win at the end of the season (RPI-wise) may end up being North Dakota State. Who woulda' thunk it?

Florida State, Memphis, Richmond, Stanford? Will one of you please stand up and be counted? My money'd be on Richmond and Stanford, of those four.
 

SelectionSunday said:
USC loses at home to UC Irvine. Starting to think the Gophers' best nonconference win at the end of the season (RPI-wise) may end up being North Dakota State. Who woulda' thunk it?

Florida State, Memphis, Richmond, Stanford? Will one of you please stand up and be counted? My money'd be on Richmond and Stanford, of those four.
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How is michigans rpi so high? They have played a single top 25 team if memory serves me correctly. I really think they have played a really weak non conf schedule
 

lakesgopher said:
How is michigans rpi so high? They have played a single top 25 team if memory serves me correctly. I really think they have played a really weak non conf schedule
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They played Pitt, Kansas State, NC State, Bradley, Arkansas and West Virginia.

The Gophers have Duke, Memphis, Stanford, FSU and USC.

I have no problem with Michigan's RPI.
 

tinyarch said:
They played Pitt, Kansas State, NC State, Bradley, Arkansas and West Virginia.

The Gophers have Duke, Memphis, Stanford, FSU and USC.

I have no problem with Michigan's RPI.
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I guess I didn't look close enough at their schedule, they have played a lot of major conf teams.
 

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