Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Had Impressive RPI At This Time Last Year, Too

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Road to Selection Sunday: Gophers Had Impressive RPI At This Time Last Year, Too
By SelectionSunday

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/203095?referrer_id=331171

DEJA VU, Minn. -- Here the Gophers are in a familiar place, sitting there this morning with their fat & sassy #11 RPI ranking, the same place they were 365 days ago. Last year in mid-December the Gopher hoopsters held a pair of RPI top-50 wins over #25 Indiana State and #45 Virginia Tech (something they don't have this season), on their way to earning an impressive mid-December #19 RPI ranking. However, as we learned in 2011-12, early success doesn't guarantee late-season prowess. None of the aforementioned three teams ended up in the NCAA Tournament , or for that matter anywhere near the NCAA bubble, though the Gophers did wind up in the NIT.

So with the Big Ten season only two weeks away, let's take a peak at how the Gophers' nonconference schedule/RPI currently stacks up against their conference brethren. RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), quality wins, "good" losses, RPI killers? You name it, we'll take a look-see.

All RPI and SOS information is courtesy of Jerry Palm at CBSSports.com.

Big Ten in the RPI
2. Michigan
5. Illinois
11. GOPHERS
18. Indiana
33. Ohio State
T-51. Michigan State
53. Iowa
64. Northwestern
79. Nebraska
128. Wisconsin
149. Penn State
178. Purdue

SOS Rank (there are 347 Division I teams)
18. Michigan
20. Illinois
25. GOPHERS
38. Indiana
39. Northwestern
54. Nebraska
69. Purdue
100. Michigan State
115. Penn State
126. Wisconsin
130. Iowa
146. Ohio State

RPI Top-50 Wins
Illinois (2) -- vs. Butler (#3), @ Gonzaga (#14)
Michigan State (2) -- vs. Kansas (#9), Boise State (36)
Indiana (2) -- vs. Georgetown (#34), North Carolina (42)
Michigan (1) -- NC State (#13)
Penn State (1) -- Bucknell (#23)
Wisconsin (1) -- Cal (#41)

RPI Top-50 Losses
Northwestern (2) -- Butler (#3), UIC (#24)
Wisconsin (2) -- @ Florida (#6), vs. Creighton (#26)
Penn State (2) -- vs. NC State (#13), @ LaSalle (#31)
Michigan State (2) -- vs. UConn (#15), @ Miami-Florida (#17)
Nebraska (2) -- Creighton (#26), @ Oregon (#38)
GOPHERS (1) -- vs. Duke (#1)
Ohio State (1) -- @ Duke (#1)
Indiana (1) -- vs. Butler (#3)
Iowa (1) -- vs. Wichita State (#22)
Purdue (1) -- Bucknell (#23)

***The Big Ten has a 9-15 record vs. the top 50 in the RPI.

RPI-Killing Opponents (opponents in bottom 25%; #261 or worse)
Wisconsin (4) -- Green Bay (#287), Nebraska-Omaha (#288), Presbyterian (#328), Southeastern Louisiana (#341)
Iowa (3) -- Howard (#291), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#322), Texas-Pan American (#324)
Penn State (2) -- Saint Francis-Pa. (#336), Penn (#342)
Purdue (2) -- Hofstra (#302), Lamar (#304)
Ohio State (2) -- NC-Asheville (#285), Northern Kentucky (#333)
Michigan (2) -- IUPUI (#283), Binghamton (#325)
Indiana (2) -- vs. Georgia (#272), Coppin State (298)
Michigan State (1) -- Nicholls State (#295)
GOPHERS (1) -- American (#264)
Nebraska (1) -- Nebraska-Omaha (#288)

And now, on to our weekly staples.

The Unconquered
The list of undefeated teams is down to 8. ... who they "got next":
1. Arizona -- host Oral Roberts on Tuesday.
2. Cincinnati -- vs. Xavier on Wednesday.
3. Duke -- host Cornell on Wednesday.
4. Illinois -- vs. Missouri on Saturday.
5. Michigan -- host Eastern Michigan on Thursday.
6. New Mexico -- @ New Mexico State on Wednesday.
7. Syracuse -- host Detroit tonight.
8. Wyoming -- host Denver on Tuesday.

RPI of Gophers' Nonconference Opponents
1. Duke (L)
72. North Dakota State (W)
107. Stanford (W)
113. Richmond (W)
115. USC (W)
129. Memphis (W)
156. South Dakota State (W)
162. Florida State (W)
175. North Florida (W)
189. Tennessee State (W)
228. Toledo (W)
264. American (W)
303. Lafayette

Odds-N-Ends
(1) Pleasant Surprise: UIC (Illinois-Chicago) -- picked to finish 8th in the Horizon League by Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook -- quietly has put together a decent at-large resume. The Flames (#24 in the RPI) won at #64 Northwestern and also own a home win over #28 Colorado State. The only loss in their 8-1 start is a 66-59 setback to Steve Alford's undefeated New Mexico Lobos. Heady stuff for a program that has finished with #291, #292, and #297 RPI rankings the last three seasons.

(2) Book It, Dano: Look for Conference USA's Memphis (despite Saturday's home collapse vs. Louisville) and Davidson (Southern) to coast through their respective conferences on their way to earning NCAA automatic bids. And it's a virtual shoo-in that Bucknell and Lehigh will meet for the Patriot League's auto bid on March 13th.

(3) Even Money: In addition to Memphis, it's a safe bet the Gophers will have at least one other nonconference win over a NCAA-qualifying opponent. Expect North Dakota State or South Dakota State to represent the Summit League in the NCAA Tournament.

(4) Jamie Dixon's Non-Big East Schedule is the "Pitts": My vote for least impressive one-loss team in the country? Try 10-1 Pitt, whose baby-soft schedule "boasts" wins over Mount Saint Mary's, Fordham, Lehigh, Oakland, Delaware, Howard, Detroit, Duquesne, North Florida, and Bethune-Cookman. Only Lehigh and Detroit would qualify as decent wins.

Mana-a-Mano Report: Top 8 Conferences Head to Head (Big East passes the B1G)
Last Week's Results: Arizona over Florida; Boise State over LSU; Butler over Indiana; DePaul over Arizona State; Colorado over Fresno State; Duquesne over West Virginia; Miami-Florida over Charlotte; Michigan over West Virginia; Notre Dame over Purdue; Oklahoma over Texas A&M; Oregon over Nebraska; Rutgers over George Washington; Villanova over Saint Joseph's; and VCU over Alabama.

Standings
1. Big East (33-18, 64.7%)
2. Big Ten (28-19, 60%)
3. ACC (24-18, 57.1%)
4. Mountain West (10-9, 52.6%)
5. Big 12 (16-17, 48.5%)
6. Pac 12 (21-23, 47.7%)
7. Atlantic 10 (19-27, 41.3%)
8. SEC (14-34, 29.2%)

This Week's Games to Watch
(Tuesday) Richmond @ Kansas, Stanford @ NC State. (Wednesday) Cincinnati vs. Xavier, Illinois State @ Dayton, South Dakota State @ Belmont. (Friday) BYU @ Baylor, Stanford @ Northwestern. (Saturday) Florida vs. Kansas State, Illinois vs. Missouri, Murray State @ Dayton, South Dakota State @ New Mexico, Syracuse vs. Temple.

Upset Special (not so much)
At least give me credit for trying!
Record: 0-6
Last Week: LaSalle over Bucknell (L, Bucknell won, 74-66)
This Week: New Mexico State over New Mexico (Wednesday)

Road to Selection Sunday now will take a brief respite, returning prior to the start of the Big Ten season. Until then, everyone have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, and please treasure your families.
 

The RPI was pretty high last year, but the thing I see a little different about this squad is their ability to kinda put their opponent in the rearview mirror in the majority of their contests this year. And also, I think the quality of wins, despite teams with lower RPIs is a little better. The Bahamas trip was far more productive with a tough Duke loss, then tight wins over Memphis and Stanford. I think I'll take that any time over a tough loss to Dayton and tight wins over Indiana St and DePaul, no offense to those schools lol.

Take care of Lafayette and get ready for conference play, it starts pretty strong right off the bat, they'll have to be ready to go, Spartans looks like they're warming up.
 

ss, i know a lot of factors play in to it, but what do you forecast we need to do to get in the tourney, assuming we beat lafayette. we'd have a 12-1 record. does 8-10 in bt put us squarely on bubble? does 9-9 get us in? obviously it matters who we beat and how strong the bubble is, but in generalities, what would you predict we need bare minimum. thanks.
 

I'd prefer to not even go there because there's no way this Gopher team should be fartin' around at 9-9. But until Memphis, Stanford, and/or Florida State prove they're legit top 50-100ish-type teams -- thus giving the Gophers a couple really decent nonconference wins -- I'd say (for the Gophers, specifically) 10-8 in the Big Ten is the number.

This season I'm very confident in early March we'll be talking about seeding, not just sneakin' in by the fingernails.

Beat State.
 

I see no comparison between this year's team and last year's in anyway other than record and RPI. The schedule and game results are nowhere close to last year.
 



With ya' 100% on that.

I think the main difference this year is I'd expect the RPIs of teams like Memphis, Stanford, Florida State, and South Dakota State to get progressively better between now and the end of the season, as opposed to last season when the likes of Indiana State, Dayton, Virginia Tech, USC, etc., got progressively worse. Not to mention, it helps the Gophers a ton just the fact they played Duke, almost assuredly a team that will end up (at worst) in the top 15 of the RPI.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I'd prefer to not even go there because there's no way this Gopher team should be fartin' around at 9-9. But until Memphis, Stanford, and/or Florida State prove they're legit top 50-100ish-type teams -- thus giving the Gophers a couple really decent nonconference wins -- I'd say (for the Gophers, specifically) 10-8 in the Big Ten is the number.

This season I'm very confident in early March we'll be talking about seeding, not just sneakin' in by the fingernails.

Beat State.
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Agreed all around. If we go 9-9 and don't get in, my frustration will be entirely with the team and not with the selection committee, because with this roster, we should be much better than a .500 Big Ten team.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Agreed all around. If we go 9-9 and don't get in, my frustration will be entirely with the team and not with the selection committee, because with this roster, we should be much better than a .500 Big Ten team.
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I don't think there is any way a team going 9-9 in the B1G doesn't make the tourney. This conference is ridiculously good.
 



The Gophers were floating around the 40s in Ken Pomeroy's rankings last season at this time. Right now they are #10
 

As much as I love reading these write-ups, I couldn't possibly disagree more with the insinuation that this season could still turn like last year. "...as we learned in 2011-12, early success doesn't guarantee late-season prowess." While I often agree with this sentiment to a degree, I full-heartedly believe that we would have been a dangerous team in the NCAA tourney if it were not for us losing the irrefutable star of our team in Trevor. This year, adding Trevor back makes us a potential conference (dare I say title) contender, but we also have a great core of players that allow our team to overcome injuries to stud players. It's hard to imagine us losing another star player this year to injury, but then again we shouldn't have to. I'm excited for this team to make some noise all year long in the Big Ten and in the NCAAs. Go Gophers!
 

Selection Sunday, how far down do you anticipate the Gophers RPI will go even with a win over Lafayette with their #303 RPI rating?
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Agreed all around. If we go 9-9 and don't get in, my frustration will be entirely with the team and not with the selection committee, because with this roster, we should be much better than a .500 Big Ten team.
Click to expand...

Not many here on GH will admit it, however you are correct.

Anything less than 12 wins in conference play will be a disappointment with the talent and experience on this team.
 



BarnBurner said:
Not many here on GH will admit it, however you are correct.

Anything less than 12 wins in conference play will be a disappointment with the talent and experience on this team.
Click to expand...

Normally yes, but 12-6 in this years B1G is a fairly lofty goal
 

People expecting this team to magically have a basement of 12 conference wins are delusional or have an agenda. This team won a combined 12 B1G conference games over the last two years. They are definitely capable of much more with this full roster clicking into place, but they haven't proven a thing to be expecting a floor of 12 wins.

With that said I hope they win them all, and I expect them to be competitive in every game.
 

I think heading into the Big Ten season and knowing what we know as of now (on paper) - this Gopher team would be favored in ten games and be an underdog in eight games. Assuming they win a game or two they are underdogs in and likely lose a game or two they are favored in, I think ten wins (especially with the strength of the Big Ten) would be super and would have us solidly in the NCAA tourney with a 22-9 record heading to the Big Ten Tourney in Chicago. Anything better than that, would be gravy and simply help us in the NCAA seeding situation.

To put it in perspective, this program has had exactly ONE season with 12 or more Big Ten wins in the last three decades (30 years) and that season ('97) was vacated. So, to get to 12 wins this year (in this league) would be a GREAT achievement, historically and presently. If the ball bounces our way, there's a definite chance we can get to 12+. But, I think to suggest that anything under 12 wins would be a disappointment, fails to recognize the quality of the league this season, in my opinion.
 

The obvious difference is that we built up a solid RPI last season with good wins early BEFORE losing Mbakwe. Then predictably struggled until the end of the year when Sampson got hurt.

IF (HUGE IF) we stay healthy and nobody gets suspended or arrested, I like our chances of staying in the top 25 all season. Possibly top 10 if Andre improves is ball-handling and PG play.
 

tjgopher said:
I think heading into the Big Ten season and knowing what we know as of now (on paper) - this Gopher team would be favored in ten games and be an underdog in eight games. Assuming they win a game or two they are underdogs in and likely lose a game or two they are favored in, I think ten wins (especially with the strength of the Big Ten) would be super and would have us solidly in the NCAA tourney with a 22-9 record heading to the Big Ten Tourney in Chicago. Anything better than that, would be gravy and simply help us in the NCAA seeding situation.

To put it in perspective, this program has had exactly ONE season with 12 or more Big Ten wins in the last three decades (30 years) and that season ('97) was vacated. So, to get to 12 wins this year (in this league) would be a GREAT achievement, historically and presently. If the ball bounces our way, there's a definite chance we can get to 12+. But, I think to suggest that anything under 12 wins would be a disappointment, fails to recognize the quality of the league this season, in my opinion.
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Good point. Winning 12 will be a real big accomplishment considering how good the big ten is this year. I didn't realize we have only won 12 big ten games once since the 1982 big ten champion season.
 

According to the RealTimeRPI site we're projected to go 10-8 in the Conference. I'd be dissapointed if we don't get to 12 wins...11-7 wouldn't be a bad record either but with a few breaks and improved PG play, I think we can win the damn league. We just need to win a couple of close games, stay healthy and improve gradually.
 

12-6 in conference play. 3-5 seed here we come!
 

XMan said:
Selection Sunday, how far down do you anticipate the Gophers RPI will go even with a win over Lafayette with their #303 RPI rating?
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Already dropping after last night. The Gophers now are #15. Maybe down to around #20 after they beat Lafayette?
 

Drake University Gopher said:
As much as I love reading these write-ups, I couldn't possibly disagree more with the insinuation that this season could still turn like last year. "...as we learned in 2011-12, early success doesn't guarantee late-season prowess." While I often agree with this sentiment to a degree, I full-heartedly believe that we would have been a dangerous team in the NCAA tourney if it were not for us losing the irrefutable star of our team in Trevor. This year, adding Trevor back makes us a potential conference (dare I say title) contender, but we also have a great core of players that allow our team to overcome injuries to stud players. It's hard to imagine us losing another star player this year to injury, but then again we shouldn't have to. I'm excited for this team to make some noise all year long in the Big Ten and in the NCAAs. Go Gophers!
Click to expand...

Fair points. In my mind the Gophers already are well ahead of schedule. Had 'em going 10-3 in the nonconference, so they're off to a great start. If I had to put an over-under on the number of conference wins for the Gophers, would put it at 10.5. I'd take the over. I still think 11 (maybe 12) is the number.
 


BarnBurner said:
Yes, it is. And more importantly, a realistic goal and expectation based on the team in place.
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As has been stated earlier, 12 conference wins has only been accomplished once in the last 30 years and that year was vacated. It's not that I think that 12 wins isn't attainable, if we get the ball to bounce our way a few times (wouldn't that be a pleasant surprise) I think that it is doable with the talent on this team. That being said, 12 wins is very difficult to obtain, especially considering how deep and talented the B1G is this year, and because of that I think it is unfair to consider anything less than 12 wins to be a disappointment. However, you are certainly entitled to your own opinion.
 

Watching Northwestern last night, the Wildcats are a world's different team without Crawford. The game @ Northwestern now certainly falls in the category of a must-get for the Gophers. With Crawford out and with Frazier out at Penn State, if the Gophers are any good (and I think they are) that should be 3-0 right there, meaning they'd only need to go 8-7 in the other 15 games (which includes 2 games vs. Nebraska) to get to 11-7, which might be enough to get a top-4 seed in the BTT.

But, as we learn every season, that's why they play the games. It's going to be a battle almost every single night, home or road.
 

It is cliche to say that the way to be successful is to win all of the games you should and a few of the ones you shouldn't. Well, even if we don't grab any of the ones that we shouldn't, we can go 12-6 by beating the teams ranked below us and losing to the teams ranked higher than us. That is 12-6 without needing to pull out a single upset (or pull out one upset for every upset we give up). If we give the team a game of wiggle room (because we have twice as many opportunities to surrender upsets than win them), I think 11-7 is a pretty fair bar to measure this team against.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
we can go 12-6 by beating the teams ranked below us and losing to the teams ranked higher than us. That is 12-6 without needing to pull out a single upset.
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That, of course, doesn't take into consideration home court and other factors. We will almost certainly be underdogs at Michigan State, at Iowa, and at Wisconsin - all teams ranked below us (right now). So, technically, we would need to pull three upsets to get to 12 wins in your scenario. That said, we could be slight favorites against Illinois at home (ranked ahead of us).

The fact of the matter is, we have a TOUGH schedule. We only get to play Penn State and Purdue once (road games). We miss Michigan and Ohio State (TOUGH home games). We play the toughest SOS in Big Ten play (according to KenPom). Take for instance Iowa (who plays the weakest SOS in the Big Ten) - they only play Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois once. They get to play PSU, NW, NEB, PU each twice (could be 7-8 wins right there). So, while both Iowa and Minnesota skips Michigan and Ohio State each once, Iowa gets to play PSU and Purdue twice and Illinois and MSU once. Minnesota meanwhile has to play Illinois twice and MSU twice, but skips Purdue and PSU a second time. Put another way, I think there are eight teams in the Big Ten that have legit NCAA hopes. Minnesota plays those teams 12 times. Iowa plays those teams 10 times. That alone could account for a two-game swing between the Iowa and Minnesota.
 

The Purdue game is on the road, and umm..we don't win there. Odd psychological obstacles don't fit well into predicting the outcomes of games.
 

From the Barn said:
The Purdue game is on the road, and umm..we don't win there. Odd psychological obstacles don't fit well into predicting the outcomes of games.
Click to expand...

Bucknell and Xavier have already won there this year. This may be the worst Purdue has been since Tubby's arrival, I like our chances.
 

tjgopher said:
That, of course, doesn't take into consideration home court and other factors. We will almost certainly be underdogs at Michigan State, at Iowa, and at Wisconsin - all teams ranked below us (right now). So, technically, we would need to pull three upsets to get to 12 wins in your scenario. That said, we could be slight favorites against Illinois at home (ranked ahead of us).

The fact of the matter is, we have a TOUGH schedule. We only get to play Penn State and Purdue once (road games). We miss Michigan and Ohio State (TOUGH home games). We play the toughest SOS in Big Ten play (according to KenPom). Take for instance Iowa (who plays the weakest SOS in the Big Ten) - they only play Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State and Illinois once. They get to play PSU, NW, NEB, PU each twice (could be 7-8 wins right there). So, while both Iowa and Minnesota skips Michigan and Ohio State each once, Iowa gets to play PSU and Purdue twice and Illinois and MSU once. Minnesota meanwhile has to play Illinois twice and MSU twice, but skips Purdue and PSU a second time. Put another way, I think there are eight teams in the Big Ten that have legit NCAA hopes. Minnesota plays those teams 12 times. Iowa plays those teams 10 times. That alone could account for a two-game swing between the Iowa and Minnesota.
Click to expand...

That's a great breakdown. Looking at it that way in terms of how many times the 8 NCAA contenders (all except Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue) have to play each other, Indiana, Michigan State, the Gophers, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all would have 12. Illinois and Michigan would have 11, and as you pointed out Iowa would only have 10. The Hawkeyes far and away have the most advantageous conference schedule.

From most difficult to easiest, I'd rank the schedules of the NCAA contenders this way:
1. Wisconsin (but the beginning and end of the schedule is soft)
2. Indiana (if Hoosiers win title they will have earned it)
3. Michigan State (see Indiana; ditto for Sparty)
4. Ohio State (7 of its 12 are in Columbus)
5. Gophers (huge plus is no trip to Ann Arbor; could easily flip-flop with OSU)
6. Michigan (6 of its 11 are on the road)
7. Illinois (see Michigan; ditto for the Illini)
8. Iowa (Hawkeyes would be well advised to go 10-8 with their weak Big 10 sked & nonconference slate)
 

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