Road to Selection Sunday: Even Optimists Wonder, Are Gophers Headed Toward Bubble?

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bga1 said:
I think you mean Illinois.
I agree with you. You either have to win the games you are supposed to or you have win some games you are not supposed to - otherwise we all end up unhappy. We don't have any "not supposed to" in our column yet.
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I think Michigan St. could fall into that category now, but either way, I agree with what you're saying.
 

mcal24 said:
Where do you think Illinois is at? At 4-7 in the B1G, they don't seem like a tournament team, but they have a few nice wins. It seemed like all their fans thought they locked up a tourney birth after the game last night. They were saying 7-11 gets them in. I dont think so. Thoughts?
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I personally do not think that at large bids should go to anyone that has a less than 500 record regardless of how tough their conference is, add mid majors that had good conference records even though there RPI isn't as good rather than teams that have losing records, make the season mean something, reward those that perform.
 

I would ask. ...

If there's a minimum standard of at least .500 for teams in "tougher conferences", what's the minimum standard for lesser conferences with "good conference records"? At least 4 games over .500 in conference play, 6 games over .500, 8, etc.? I don't think there can be a minimum standard for one (major conferences) without having one for the other (smaller conferences).

In my opinion, the way the tournament is set up now is more than fair to the smaller conferences in terms of tournament representation, and in its current format (68 teams) I would make that argument until the day I die; and I consider myself someone who doesn't mind championing a smaller school when their resume merits an at-large bid.

Basically there are about 10 conferences we can count on getting multiple bids in most seasons: ACC, A-10, Big East, B1G, Big 12, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, Pac 12, SEC, and West Coast. There are 31 automatic bids; take away the 10 I just mentioned and that still leaves 21 automatic spots going to the remaining conferences, despite the fact those conferences are nowhere near the same caliber as the ones in the upper-echelon. In addition, typically I'd say there will be another 4-5 at-large bids going to those conferences because a quality team doesn't win its conference tourney, for example this year it could be teams like Memphis (C-USA), Akron (MAC), Belmont (OVC), Middle Tennessee (Sun Belt), and/or Louisiana Tech (WAC).

So conservatively, that gets the typically "1-bid leagues" to about 25 or 26 spots, roughly 37-38% of the field. I think that's more than fair considering how inferior those 20 or so conferences are compared to the upper crust.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I would ask. ...

If there's a minimum standard of at least .500 for teams in "tougher conferences", what's the minimum standard for mid-majors with "good conference records"? At least 4 games over .500 in conference play, 6 games over .500, 8, etc.? I don't think there can be a minimum standard for one (major conferences) without having one for the other (smaller conferences).
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Maybe that is why they invite the 37 best teams that don't win the conference tournament?
 


From the Barn said:
Maybe that is why they invite the 37 best teams that don't win the conference tournament?
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Yep. Smaller conferences (and schools) have plenty of access to the NCAA Tournament. If the smaller conferences want to make sure they are represented in the NCAA tourney by their best team, then they should award their automatic bid to the regular-season champion (Ivy League anyone?). Every conference gets to decide how their auto qualifier is determined.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Yep. Smaller conferences (and schools) have plenty of access to the NCAA Tournament. If the smaller conferences want to make sure they are represented in the NCAA tourney by their best team, then they should award their automatic bid to the regular-season champion (Ivy League anyone?). Every conference gets to decide how their auto qualifier is determined.
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I know I'm a minority here, but I really enjoy the conference tournaments. Maybe I'm the only one on the board (or possibly the planet) who would rather win the BTT than the regular season. There is just something that tickles me about single elimination, no excuses basketball. We are playing in a win or go home environment that more closely resembles NCAA tourney play, most teams are fighting for their last chance at getting a tournament bid, and those that aren't have a last ditch effort to improve their resume.
 

Chances Iowa makes the tournament? Their board really thinks they can go 10-8 and get sixth in the Big Ten. I doubt it but you never know looking at their schedule.
 

Johnnyboy18 said:
Chances Iowa makes the tournament? Their board really thinks they can go 10-8 and get sixth in the Big Ten. I doubt it but you never know looking at their schedule.
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10-6...I seriously doubt that. Even when the Gophers are playing bad they can beat Iowa.
 




bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I know I'm a minority here, but I really enjoy the conference tournaments. Maybe I'm the only one on the board (or possibly the planet) who would rather win the BTT than the regular season. There is just something that tickles me about single elimination, no excuses basketball. We are playing in a win or go home environment that more closely resembles NCAA tourney play, most teams are fighting for their last chance at getting a tournament bid, and those that aren't have a last ditch effort to improve their resume.
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Dear Lord I hope so.

The BTT is a made for TV spectacle where many of the teams are just gearing up for a real tournament and often times just going through the motions.

I'm glad you like to tickle yourself for 3 or 4 days. I'd rather have a full Big Ten season.
 


Parski1 said:
10-6...I seriously doubt that. Even when the Gophers are playing bad they can beat Iowa.
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Iowa will be favored in six of its last seven games. If they win each of those, they will be 10-8. That would put them almost certainly in sixth place and secure them a spot in the NCAA. Chances are they stumble somewhere (hopefully against us) and end up 8-10 or 9-9.
 



station19 said:
The BTT is. ... often times just going through the motions.
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May I ask, is that based on your observations having attended the BTT or is it based on what you've seen through your TV screen? Just curious. If you've attended at least one, then my apologies.
 

SelectionSunday said:
May I ask, is that based on your observations having attended the BTT or is it based on what you've seen through your TV screen? Just curious. If you've attended at least one, then my apologies.
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Just my TV.

Can you tell I'm not a fan of the BTT?
 

station19 said:
Dear Lord I hope so.

The BTT is a made for TV spectacle where many of the teams are just gearing up for a real tournament and often times just going through the motions.

I'm glad you like to tickle yourself for 3 or 4 days. I'd rather have a full Big Ten season.
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It may be a TV spectacle, however it also seems to be as good of a predictor of NCAA tourney success as the regular season. I looked back to Florida's back-to-back titles, and in the last seven years, the NCAA champion has been the champion of their conference tournament five times and champion of the regular season five times (including Duke's shared title in 2010).
 

station19 said:
Can you tell I'm not a fan of the BTT?
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I got that vibe! I understand that it's not for everyone.

No argument from me that's it's made for TV and for $$$$, but my experience has been it's important to the players. To me it's not so much that they're going through the motions, it's more that by their 3rd or 4th game (depending on whether they played Thursday) the teams still playing wear down. The championship game quite often is a dud, last year's Sparty-OSU title game being an exception.

FWIW, I think this year's BTT quarterfinals could be one of the best days of basketball we'll ever see. All the teams will be fresh, and barring Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, or Penn State pulling off a Thursday upset, there might not be a stinker in the bunch (quarterfinals), even the 1 vs. 8 game.
 

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