Remaining path to win the west

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swelna

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Obviously, the gophers would need to win out, leaving us with 2 conference losses. With the tie breaker going to Illinois and Purdue, they both need to pick up 2 losses.

Purdue's Remaining Schedule
@ Wisconsin
vs Iowa
@ Illinois
vs NW
@ Indiana

Illinois' Remaining Schedule
@ Nebraska
vs Michigan State
vs Purdue
@ Michigan
@ NW

Illinois likely picks up a loss @ Michigan. Their toughest games left would be Purdue and Nebraska. Purdue's toughest games left are Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois. I think the most likely scenario for Purdue to pickup two loses is that they drop one vs Wisconsin or Iowa and then lose to Illinois. That leaves Illinois needing one more loss in addition to Michigan, which I think most likely comes from Nebraska at this point.

Is it a long shot, yeah, the Gophers really needed to not drop these games against Illinois and Purdue, but there's still some hope.

TL;DR root for Wisconsin this week against Purdue, Nebraska next week against Illinois, and Iowa the week after that against Purdue. By the second week of November we should know if there's still a chance or not.
 


I believe that we are going to have more losses than at least one of those two teams so I don't think we'll have to worry about a tie.
 




Don’t think this team wins out even if they upset penn state. Just not good enough to be that consistent.

In which case I would love it if the following teams to miss bowl games:
Iowa
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Michigan state
Indiana
Rutgers
Northwestern

So boiler up and hammer down
 

I know we don't control our own destiny, but given how much parity there is in the division this year, I think that if we managed to win out (obviously a big "if") the rest of the schedule will take care of itself and we will be packing for Indy.
 

bleedsmaroonandgold said:
I know we don't control our own destiny, but given how much parity there is in the division this year, I think that if we managed to win out (obviously a big "if") the rest of the schedule will take care of itself and we will be packing for Indy.
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That is the crazy thing about this season. As frustrating as these past two games have been there is nobody left on our schedule that looks unbeatable. Penn State will be tough but after them, Rutgers and Northwestern look horrible and Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa are very flawed teams as well.

Now granted, all those teams can say the exact same thing about us right now after the past couple of weeks.

At this point I'm not sure there is anyone in the Big Ten that can even give Ohio State a battle.
 

I think it’s kind of stupid that team A could sweep the West division and then lose the division title to team B with 2 division losses (including losing head to head against Team A). Why have divisions? I thought the first criteria should be division record, THEN head to head, THEN overall conference record as a tie breaker.
 



Let's find a passing game, then we can think about possibly winning a game again, much less thinking how to win the West. As for purdue, that team is resilient and getting the breaks, like interceptions falling into their hands (courtesy of Gophs). Illinois is playing at a different level defensively, and has a ganechanging quarterback. They can run the table.
 

Potential path to Indy with 1 loss to Penn State:
1666016401947.png

Beat Penn State and run the table, Illinois and Purdue need 2 more losses, likely being their road games @Nebraska and @Michigan for Illinois, and @Wisconsin and @Illinois for Purdue.

The big push starts this week!
 

I know it's going to take a miracle, but what the hell. Let's revive it, for S's n G's.

Gophers:
Nov 5 - @ Neb
Nov 12 - NW
Nov 19 - Iowa
Nov 26 - @ Wisc

Purdue:
Nov 5 - Iowa
Nov 12 - @Illinois
Nov 19 - NW
Nov 26 - @ IU

Illinois:
Nov 5 - MS
Nov 12 - Purdue
Nov 19 - @ Mich
Nov 26 - @ NW


- To even have a discussion, we have to start off assuming the Gophers run the table. That gives Neb, Iowa, and Wisc another conf loss (at least) and puts us fully above them all.
- Need Purdue to drop two more
- Need Illinois to drop three more


We can probably count on ILL losing to Michigan. So then, we need Purdue to beat ILL in their rivalry game. Still then need ILL to drop one more, either this coming week they play Mich State at home, or at the end of the year they play NW in Evanston for the in-state rivalry.

Can Fitz rally the troops to pull off the miracle?? Does ILL somehow overlook MSU and MSU rallies itself from this past weekend's ugliness?


With Purdue beating ILL, we really need Iowa to pick up the win this coming weekend. Not sure if NW can get it done, so might have to hope Purdue loses on the road to IU in their in-state rivalry.



Wow, what a potential season ending weekend, with maybe all these deciding the outcome of the West: Minn-Wisc, ILL-NW, and Purdue-IU.
 

Catechol said:
I think it’s kind of stupid that team A could sweep the West division and then lose the division title to team B with 2 division losses (including losing head to head against Team A). Why have divisions? I thought the first criteria should be division record, THEN head to head, THEN overall conference record as a tie breaker.
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Have divisions so that it is impossible to have a 3 way tie for the conference title without a natural tiebreaker between at least 2 of the teams

Have divisions so each team controls their own destiny at the beginning of the yearz

Rather than do away with divisions they should keep them but have criteria to make the conference title game that if the second place team from one division beat the division champion head to head and has a better record or same record the two conference championship participants can come from same division.
 



Gophers_4life said:
I know it's going to take a miracle, but what the hell. Let's revive it, for S's n G's.

Gophers:
Nov 5 - @ Neb
Nov 12 - NW
Nov 19 - Iowa
Nov 26 - @ Wisc

Purdue:
Nov 5 - Iowa
Nov 12 - @Illinois
Nov 19 - NW
Nov 26 - @ IU

Illinois:
Nov 5 - MS
Nov 12 - Purdue
Nov 19 - @ Mich
Nov 26 - @ NW


- To even have a discussion, we have to start off assuming the Gophers run the table. That gives Neb, Iowa, and Wisc another conf loss (at least) and puts us fully above them all.
- Need Purdue to drop two more
- Need Illinois to drop three more


We can probably count on ILL losing to Michigan. So then, we need Purdue to beat ILL in their rivalry game. Still then need ILL to drop one more, either this coming week they play Mich State at home, or at the end of the year they play NW in Evanston for the in-state rivalry.

Can Fitz rally the troops to pull off the miracle?? Does ILL somehow overlook MSU and MSU rallies itself from this past weekend's ugliness?


With Purdue beating ILL, we really need Iowa to pick up the win this coming weekend. Not sure if NW can get it done, so might have to hope Purdue loses on the road to IU in their in-state rivalry.



Wow, what a potential season ending weekend, with maybe all these deciding the outcome of the West: Minn-Wisc, ILL-NW, and Purdue-IU.
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Great now you're gonna have me scoreboard watching the rest of the year if Michigan State and Iowa pull the upsets this weekend. :ROFLMAO:
 

If Michigan state, Iowa, and Minnesota win this weekend, I’ll start paying more attention.

Basic path,
Michigan state, Purdue, Michigan beat Illinois (I think only 1-2 of these three do)
Iowa beats Purdue as does Indiana (I think neither of these things happen)
Gophers win out.

I refuse to consider northwestern winning a game as a plausible scenario
 

Gophers_4life said:
I know it's going to take a miracle, but what the hell. Let's revive it, for S's n G's.

Gophers:
Nov 5 - @ Neb
Nov 12 - NW
Nov 19 - Iowa
Nov 26 - @ Wisc

Purdue:
Nov 5 - Iowa
Nov 12 - @Illinois
Nov 19 - NW
Nov 26 - @ IU

Illinois:
Nov 5 - MS
Nov 12 - Purdue
Nov 19 - @ Mich
Nov 26 - @ NW


- To even have a discussion, we have to start off assuming the Gophers run the table. That gives Neb, Iowa, and Wisc another conf loss (at least) and puts us fully above them all.
- Need Purdue to drop two more
- Need Illinois to drop three more


We can probably count on ILL losing to Michigan. So then, we need Purdue to beat ILL in their rivalry game. Still then need ILL to drop one more, either this coming week they play Mich State at home, or at the end of the year they play NW in Evanston for the in-state rivalry.

Can Fitz rally the troops to pull off the miracle?? Does ILL somehow overlook MSU and MSU rallies itself from this past weekend's ugliness?


With Purdue beating ILL, we really need Iowa to pick up the win this coming weekend. Not sure if NW can get it done, so might have to hope Purdue loses on the road to IU in their in-state rivalry.



Wow, what a potential season ending weekend, with maybe all these deciding the outcome of the West: Minn-Wisc, ILL-NW, and Purdue-IU.
Click to expand...
Feels like Illinois division to lose at this point, just don't see them losing to MSU or Northwestern. If Iowa manages to beat Purdue this weekend and Illinois beats MSU the division race could essentially be over by the end of the day on Saturday.
 

Some guy said:
Have divisions so that it is impossible to have a 3 way tie for the conference title without a natural tiebreaker between at least 2 of the teams

Have divisions so each team controls their own destiny at the beginning of the yearz

Rather than do away with divisions they should keep them but have criteria to make the conference title game that if the second place team from one division beat the division champion head to head and has a better record or same record the two conference championship participants can come from same division.
Click to expand...
I believe they're saying if Team A goes 6-0 within the West Division, but then 0-3 against the East and Team B goes 4-2 (including a loss to Team A) within the West, but then goes 3-0 against the East. In that scenario Team B wins the West even though Team A beat every team in the West.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I believe they're saying if Team A goes 6-0 within the West Division, but then 0-3 against the East and Team B goes 4-2 (including a loss to Team A) within the West, but then goes 3-0 against the East. In that scenario Team B wins the West even though Team A beat every team in the West.
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Correct. And I would argue if that is the case the right answer isn’t sending team A
The right answer would be to send team C who is 8-1 and in the East
 

MNVCGUY said:
Feels like Illinois division to lose at this point, just don't see them losing to MSU or Northwestern. If Iowa manages to beat Purdue this weekend and Illinois beats MSU the division race could essentially be over by the end of the day on Saturday.
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Well, that's why they play the games.

C'mon Fitz! Send em home on a sour note! Land o Lincoln!
 

I really think that Illinois will run the West table and be 7-2 at the end of the season, with only loss to Michigan the rest of the way.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
I really think that Illinois will run the West table and be 7-2 at the end of the season, with only loss to Michigan the rest of the way.
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If Devito and Brown stay healthy I agree 100% with that assessment. And they may give Michigan a run for their money.
 





I want us to win out. But, having lost a very winnable game to Purdue, and having been taken to the wood shed by Illinois, we don’t deserve to “back into” a West championship. Nonetheless, I’d sure like to get Floyd and The Axe back. It would make the season special.
 
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Gophergrandpa said:
I want us to win out. But, having lost a very winnable game to Purdue, and having been taken to the wood shed by Illinois, we don’t deserve to back into a West championship. Nonetheless, I’d sure like to get Floyd and The Axe back. It would make the season special.
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Not sure I agree we got taken to the woodshed by illinois
If Illinois goes 2/4 on 4th down instead of 4/4 Minnesota wins the game.

Flipping 2 plays changes the outcome that’s not a beat down that’s just a loss
 

Some guy said:
Not sure I agree we got taken to the woodshed by illinois
If Illinois goes 2/4 on 4th down instead of 4/4 Minnesota wins the game.

Flipping 2 plays changes the outcome that’s not a beat down that’s just a loss
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I was thinking more the 472-180 total offensive yards differential; the 40:04 to 19:56 TOP differential; and the 3-0 turnover differential. To me those are, taken together, beat down numbers. I also consider it a beat down when the Gophers do that to a team. I’m evenhanded!
 

Gophergrandpa said:
I was thinking more the 472-180 total offensive yards differential; the 40:04 to 19:56 TOP differential; and the 3-0 turnover differential. To me those are, taken together, beat down numbers. I also consider it a beat down when the Gophers do that to a team. I’m evenhanded!
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If you extrapolated Illinois’ offensive reproduction over the course of the season they’d be a bottom 50 offense.
Minnesota 2-3 plays away from beating a top 15 team on the road while playing like dogshit isn’t a beat down in my book
 

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