Realistic season predictions

cjbfbp

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What is BJ’s buyout?

Correction - here is an article:


He makes base salary of $1.95 M through 2026-27. After this year (his second year) his buyout will be 75% of his full remaining base. After next year 50% remaining…and so on.

- so with the U being cheap we could be stuck with him

Good info. Thanks!

Yes, they are noticeably cheap when compared to their peers. If BJ continues to have seasons like these two (assuming we finish as badly as current expectations) I don't think he lasts beyond 4 years though.
 
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cjbfbp

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All of you assume they will not get any better throughout this year. Ben will not find ways to leverage the talent he has available, Battle will not get back to all-Bigten form a few great games, JoJ/Payne/Henley not maturing much more quickly than expected due to playing time, team as a whole is not able adjusts to deal with defensive pressure due to lack of true PGs, free throw shooting improves. What if they win more games than you expect?

What if you guys plan on the absolute worse year possible and the team does not live up to this pity party? What about that?

Well, I don't assume those things. For example, I think that free throw shooting has nowhere to go but up.

I think a lot of fans on this site erred by "hoping against hope." This team was picked to finish last in the conference and, right now, those prognosticators look like they really knew their stuff. Nevertheless, I think there are some compelling reasons to keep watching. Perhaps the central assumption was that this team would be led by the veterans (Garcia, Battle, and, to a lesser extent, Cooper) and the freshmen would be supporting players. Right now, the Minnesota freshmen at least appear to have the most raw athleticism on the team and possibly the most potential. I think they need to be regarded by the veterans and the coach as equals. One of the highest compliments an athlete on a team sport can receive is that "he makes his teammates better." I'd like to see our vets strive a little more to earn that mantra.
 

bga1

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Bright side....

Next year we are looking at:

Evans/Payne
Fox/ Battle
Ihnen/Betts
Carrington/Henley
Christie/Cooper
+ a speedy transfer guard

That's a lot of talent if Ben can coach it to play as a team. As bad as this looks right now, that's an NCAA team

Not sure on Garcia and Thompson. I'd love to see them prove me wrong.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy

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Bright side....

Next year we are looking at:

Evans/Payne
Fox/ Battle
Ihnen/Betts
Carrington/Henley
Christie/Cooper
+ a speedy transfer guard

That's a lot of talent if Ben can coach it to play as a team. As bad as this looks right now, that's an NCAA team

Not sure on Garcia and Thompson. I'd love to see them prove me wrong.
In your scenario are you thinking fox starts over battle or are you just listing players by position?
 

leib0039

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Bright side....

Next year we are looking at:

Evans/Payne
Fox/ Battle
Ihnen/Betts
Carrington/Henley
Christie/Cooper
+ a speedy transfer guard

That's a lot of talent if Ben can coach it to play as a team. As bad as this looks right now, that's an NCAA team

Not sure on Garcia and Thompson. I'd love to see them prove me wrong.
That team still has ZERO shooting and is completely void of a good PG who can make plays and distribute. Until those things are addressed I think the roster has serious questions. Furthermore, you are counting on 2 guys who havent played in 2 years and have never proven much on the D1 level. Not to be a downer but the grass isnt as green as you think with that group.
 


GFBfan

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That team still has ZERO shooting and is completely void of a good PG who can make plays and distribute. Until those things are addressed I think the roster has serious questions. Furthermore, you are counting on 2 guys who havent played in 2 years and have never proven much on the D1 level. Not to be a downer but the grass isnt as green as you think with that group.
Carrington, Henley and Battle are shooters (right now they are not making them, but will as they get more comfortable at this level for C and H and when Battle gets back into playing form like he was last year). As bga1 posted another PG is needed for that group which can come in the transfer portal.
I recorded the game last night and was able to watch until the second media TO. Up to that point in the game they looked pretty good. They need to sustain that for longer stretches and I believe they will as they all grow accustomed to each other and to the game at this level.
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy

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Carrington, Henley and Battle are shooters (right now they are not making them, but will as they get more comfortable at this level for C and H and when Battle gets back into playing form like he was last year). As bga1 posted another PG is needed for that group which can come in the transfer portal.
I recorded the game last night and was able to watch until the second media TO. Up to that point in the game they looked pretty good. They need to sustain that for longer stretches and I believe they will as they all grow accustomed to each other and to the game at this level.
Honest question, why would a good / fast PG come to a very bad Goph program, which will most likely get no more than 3-5 b10 wins this season when he will most likely have other Power5 transfer offers (in this scenario we are talking about a very good PG transfer)...

What is the selling point...
-playing time (other programs can offer that...and they will win and maybe get to the tourny *with better odds*)
-NIL $$$? I don't think the GOPHS are big on this compared to other schools
-Chance at post season play...see bullet A
-opportunity to highlight skillset for NBA - this is laughable

So... what are we selling that gets an elite PG to come to a lowly B10 program...honest question (unless there is a hometown angle like Holloman as an example)...
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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All of you assume they will not get any better throughout this year. Ben will not find ways to leverage the talent he has available, Battle will not get back to all-Bigten form a few great games, JoJ/Payne/Henley not maturing much more quickly than expected due to playing time, team as a whole is not able adjusts to deal with defensive pressure due to lack of true PGs, free throw shooting improves. What if they win more games than you expect?

What if you guys plan on the absolute worse year possible and the team does not live up to this pity party? What about that?

I hope they do, but it's really hard to see how they will. They look horrible against one of the softest P6 non-conference schedules in the country. VT is a good team, and we battled for the first 10 minutes, but we weren't even in their league for the final 30. There may be 10-11 B1G teams who are better than them, and the only B1G team worse than DePaul and UNLV is likely Nebraska.

It's difficult to see this team getting more than 4-5 more wins. The only other comparable B1G teams are Nebraska and Northwestern. Despite Nebraska always being terrible, we never win on the road there. We also haven't been great on the road @Northwestern and we don't play them at home.
 





Dupreefor3

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I'll say 13-18, 6-14 overall. I think the Freshmen will continue to get better and eventually Battle will get his legs under him. I do think four or five of those wins will come in February, December and January will be tough sledding
 





Wet_Blanket_Guy

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I'll say 13-18, 6-14 overall. I think the Freshmen will continue to get better and eventually Battle will get his legs under him. I do think four or five of those wins will come in February, December and January will be tough sledding
Even with Battle getting his legs, I don't think he is quick enough to blow past good SFs in the B10. Didn't he switch to SF this year from PF last year to accommodate Garcia...this is proving to be terrible for his offensive game.
 


Dupreefor3

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Even with Battle getting his legs, I don't think he is quick enough to blow past good SFs in the B10. Didn't he switch to SF this year from PF last year to accommodate Garcia...this is proving to be terrible for his offensive game.
Position isn't really that relevant on offense, it's more relevant in terms of what you can guard on defense, but Battle hasn't been driving at all this year and I think that's because he's not 100% in game shape yet. He could be the four, the two and still have the same results offensively, doesn't really matter when you're chucking up bad shots and not getting your chsnces in the flow of the offense
 

Wet_Blanket_Guy

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Position isn't really that relevant on offense, it's more relevant in terms of what you can guard on defense, but Battle hasn't been driving at all this year and I think that's because he's not 100% in game shape yet. He could be the four, the two and still have the same results offensively, doesn't really matter when you're chucking up bad shots and not getting your chsnces in the flow of the offense
How does it not matter. If the other team is having their 4 or their 3 guard him...that matters. He's getting bad shots because he's being guarded this year by SFs who are more athletic than the players who guarded him last year. They are much more athletic than him and he can't get by them. Last year he could as he was being guarded by PFs (who by nature are less athletic than SFs...thus slower).
 

stocker08

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All of you assume they will not get any better throughout this year. Ben will not find ways to leverage the talent he has available, Battle will not get back to all-Bigten form a few great games, JoJ/Payne/Henley not maturing much more quickly than expected due to playing time, team as a whole is not able adjusts to deal with defensive pressure due to lack of true PGs, free throw shooting improves. What if they win more games than you expect?

What if you guys plan on the absolute worse year possible and the team does not live up to this pity party? What about that?

Reading GH can be a chore often. The knee jerk and the sky is falling reactions are in good supply when things aren't going well....and disappear just as quickly when something good happens. Football board did a 180 real quick from one week to the next for example. The talent (on paper) that CBJ has brought in these past two classes is as high as we've seen in a very long time. But here we are....beginning of year two....with people already trying to convince themselves that we need to wipe the slate clean. Just some out of touch fans with unwarranted entitlement.
 

bga1

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That team still has ZERO shooting and is completely void of a good PG who can make plays and distribute. Until those things are addressed I think the roster has serious questions. Furthermore, you are counting on 2 guys who havent played in 2 years and have never proven much on the D1 level. Not to be a downer but the grass isnt as green as you think with that group.
So Battle can't shoot, Carrington can't shoot, Henley can't shoot, Christie won't be able to shoot, and the transfer guard we bring in won't be able to shoot. Got it.

We looked like garbage last night. I get that. I don't like it. But these freshmen are....freshmen in the 7th game of the year. We actually know that Battle can shoot and so can some of the others. We'll get better as the year goes on. I still feel good that we have a nice young roster that with Evans, Christie and others coming next year, will make the NCAAs next year.

That said, what we see today was exactly what I feared with the hire of Ben. I think he can coach and he has shown he can recruit. BUT...he has zero track record and fans here are so tired of losing that they will give up in a heart beat. Our attendance is hitting rock bottom. I hope Ben succeeds and I think he CAN but the clock is already ticking and this job is a huge uphill climb. The AD/President Gabel put him in a terribly tough situation considering his lack of experience.
 

leib0039

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So Battle can't shoot, Carrington can't shoot, Henley can't shoot, Christie won't be able to shoot, and the transfer guard we bring in won't be able to shoot. Got it.

We looked like garbage last night. I get that. I don't like it. But these freshmen are....freshmen in the 7th game of the year. We actually know that Battle can shoot and so can some of the others. We'll get better as the year goes on. I still feel good that we have a nice young roster that with Evans, Christie and others coming next year, will make the NCAAs next year.

That said, what we see today was exactly what I feared with the hire of Ben. I think he can coach and he has shown he can recruit. BUT...he has zero track record and fans here are so tired of losing that they will give up in a heart beat. Our attendance is hitting rock bottom. I hope Ben succeeds and I think he CAN but the clock is already ticking and this job is a huge uphill climb. The AD/President Gabel put him in a terribly tough situation considering his lack of experience.
Battle is career 36% from deep, respectable but not elite. Carrington I do think is a good shooter, good form/looks good coming off his hand. Henley I have seen nothing that makes me think he will be great. Christie I guess I cannot comment on.

What I maybe more meant is we don't have that Hoffarber type or multiple guys who can consistently hit an open 3. Purdue is what I would aspire to be, Stefanovic 39% on high volume, but then 5 more guys who shot over 41%. Just off last year Battle would be the NINTH best 3% shooter on their team.
 

howeda7

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Honest question, why would a good / fast PG come to a very bad Goph program, which will most likely get no more than 3-5 b10 wins this season when he will most likely have other Power5 transfer offers (in this scenario we are talking about a very good PG transfer)...
There are only so many starting PG spots available at power 6 schools. You'd think that rarity alone could net someone better than Cooper and certainly better than Samuels.
 

howeda7

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Reading GH can be a chore often. The knee jerk and the sky is falling reactions are in good supply when things aren't going well....and disappear just as quickly when something good happens. Football board did a 180 real quick from one week to the next for example. The talent (on paper) that CBJ has brought in these past two classes is as high as we've seen in a very long time. But here we are....beginning of year two....with people already trying to convince themselves that we need to wipe the slate clean. Just some out of touch fans with unwarranted entitlement.
This feels equivalent to where the football team was after Illinois blew them out in PJ's second year. He turned it around after that game, won in Madison, made a Bowl game etc. Hopefully Ben can do the same. It's just hard to see it at this moment. Keeping the Purdue game under 20 is a good initial goal. Then find a way to win one of Michigan/Miss State.
 

bga1

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Battle is career 36% from deep, respectable but not elite. Carrington I do think is a good shooter, good form/looks good coming off his hand. Henley I have seen nothing that makes me think he will be great. Christie I guess I cannot comment on.

What I maybe more meant is we don't have that Hoffarber type or multiple guys who can consistently hit an open 3. Purdue is what I would aspire to be, Stefanovic 39% on high volume, but then 5 more guys who shot over 41%. Just off last year Battle would be the NINTH best 3% shooter on their team.
Battle is a great shooter. He forces way too many shots - he did the same last year. He is the type of guy where you need to run something to get him open. We don't seem to do that.
 

cjbfbp

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This feels equivalent to where the football team was after Illinois blew them out in PJ's second year. He turned it around after that game, won in Madison, made a Bowl game etc. Hopefully Ben can do the same. It's just hard to see it at this moment. Keeping the Purdue game under 20 is a good initial goal. Then find a way to win one of Michigan/Miss State.

Turn it around to what? Not a team outside the bottom four I imagine. His name is Ben Johnson, not Ben-Hur

Fleck had a pretty good team that was picked to win 7 or 8 games. That team stumbled in some games and had to replace two 6 year veterans who were critical offensive players for the last four seasons while the season was in progress but the human resources were there.

Ben Johnson has a team picked to finish last in the conference and, from the looks of things, the media sources who predicted that really knew their business.
 

howeda7

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Turn it around to what? Not a team outside the bottom four I imagine. His name is Ben Johnson, not Ben-Hur

Fleck had a pretty good team that was picked to win 7 or 8 games. That team stumbled in some games and had to replace two 6 year veterans who were critical offensive players for the last four seasons while the season was in progress but the human resources were there.

Ben Johnson has a team picked to finish last in the conference and, from the looks of things, the media sources who predicted that really knew their business.
To 16-18 wins instead of 10 or 11. No one is expecting a miracle, but being above .500 shouldn't take a miracle.
 

kix4kix

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This team is not two or three players away.......
 

Gophs24

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Bright side....

Next year we are looking at:

Evans/Payne
Fox/ Battle
Ihnen/Betts
Carrington/Henley
Christie/Cooper
+ a speedy transfer guard

That's a lot of talent if Ben can coach it to play as a team. As bad as this looks right now, that's an NCAA team

Not sure on Garcia and Thompson. I'd love to see them prove me wrong.
Evans/Payne
Garcia/Thompson
Battle/JOJ/Betts
Carrington/Henley
Christie/Cooper

not sure on Fox and Ihnen. I'd love to see them come back to pre-injury form but lets all agree that we should not be relying on either playing a major role coming off of 2 serious knee injuries and not playing a game in 2 years.....if either is able to provide anything its all gravy! both of those 2 could just as easily say they are hanging it up as well

Does Thompson look around? maybe. maybe he is content with where he is at
Does BJ have a tough conversation with cooper....if we are going to be any good we need better PG play. Does that push him out the door? who knows.
 


combes1

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All of you assume they will not get any better throughout this year. Ben will not find ways to leverage the talent he has available, Battle will not get back to all-Bigten form a few great games, JoJ/Payne/Henley not maturing much more quickly than expected due to playing time, team as a whole is not able adjusts to deal with defensive pressure due to lack of true PGs, free throw shooting improves. What if they win more games than you expect?

What if you guys plan on the absolute worse year possible and the team does not live up to this pity party? What about that?
You have to assume that other teams will also get better during the year, too. So it still comes down to talent.
 

short ornery norwegian

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since this thread is about "realistic season predictions"

OK, I'll be realistic. I do not think this team is going to win as many games as I had hoped before the season.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope they improve during the season. (I know we're not used to seeing that around here.....)

But realistically, I'll say 7-4 non-conf, 5-15 conf, 12-19 overall.

and hope I'm wrong.
 




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