Realistic expectations

[RememberMurray]

Definition of realistic:


1. having or showing a sensible and practical idea of what can be achieved or expected.
"jobs are scarce at the moment, so you've got to be realistic"

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What are realistic expectations for this program going forward — for the remainder of this year, for next season, and over the next 5 years?

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For me, they remain the same as they were since Kill: to be roughly equivalent to what Iowa has been under Fry/Ferentz and Wisconsin has been since Alvarez arrived there.

We are definitely not there yet, but we seem to be inching toward that.

 

[Mr. 131]

For me, they remain the same as they were since Kill: to be roughly equivalent to what Iowa has been under Fry/Ferentz and Wisconsin has been since Alvarez arrived there.

This is still what I absolutely consider to be realistic and doable. There is no reason to believe we can't build a program like Iowa or Wisconsin.

I don't envision anything higher than that in the next five years, and even reaching the previous goal is looking very difficult.

This whole season threw a lot of cold water on the dream...and I don't know if I was being unrealistic, or if this team has under-performed badly. I don't think we are as bad as we've looked in October, but I absolutely fell for the non conference trap.

Next year is big for PJ.

 

[I'm A Maroon 2!]

This is still what I absolutely consider to be realistic and doable. There is no reason to believe we can't build a program like Iowa or Wisconsin.

I don't envision anything higher than that in the next five years, and even reaching the previous goal is looking very difficult.

This whole season threw a lot of cold water on the dream...and I don't know if I was being unrealistic, or if this team has under-performed badly. I don't think we are as bad as we've looked in October, but I absolutely fell for the non conference trap.

Next year is big for PJ.

If next year is big for PJ and expectations are supposed to be realistic, look at what is currently in place, look at the overall results, and look at who is leaving next year. Throw in a very hard schedule and realistically you're looking at a strong chance of a below .500 season. Transfer portal can help mitigate that, but I'd personally expect .500 to be the REALISTIC goal for next year with a new QB, new starting RB, likely new top WR or 2, and replacing 3 linemen. I do expect the defense to be solid and keep them in most games though.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Remainder of the year - I think anything less than 7 is a disaster, 7 is meh, and anything 8+ is a good season. If we win 8+ games this year with both trophy games, it's hard for me not to see that as a really good season.

Next season - it's pretty similar to this year for me, anything under 7 wins is a bad year.

For me, in the next 5 years, it's really about consistently having a good team. I understand we will have some seasons that might be more down here and there, it's natural. But if we are over .500 in the Big 10 for the next 5 seasons, PJ is doing a stellar job.

A bad year doesn't mean we fire our coaches or anything either. You begin thinking of coaching changes when the bad seasons are the expectations.

 

[jonnyganas]

If next year is big for PJ and expectations are supposed to be realistic, look at what is currently in place, look at the overall results, and look at who is leaving next year. Throw in a very hard schedule and realistically you're looking at a strong chance of a below .500 season. Transfer portal can help mitigate that, but I'd personally expect .500 to be the REALISTIC goal for next year with a new QB, new starting RB, likely new top WR or 2, and replacing 3 linemen. I do expect the defense to be solid and keep them in most games though.

You never quite know what to expect in the B1G. Going into this season, I wouldn't have thought that Illinois would be dominant in the West, wouldn't have predicted WI to fire Chryst in early October, and wouldn't have predicted MSU would regress so hard after an 11 win season.

I think our incoming talent is more athletic and has higher ceiling than the outgoing talent, but with the portal, there's a lot of unknowns.

The 2023 schedule is brutal, but these perceptions can change as a season unfolds, so who knows.

 

[RememberMurray]

As far as next season is concerned, on offense...

— Autman-Bell leaving, but we have been without him for a few games now.

— Mo leaving is obviously huge, but Trey has shown he can play. The cupboard isn't bare at RB. Hopefully the new guys in the pipeline have some ability. That said, I doubt we'll see a Mo-style "bell cow" at RB next season. More of a 2021 type rotation, I'd guess. This leads directly to...

— Morgan leaving. I am a huge Tanner Morgan fan, but Athan Kaliakmanis looks like a real talent. With Mo leaving and Kaliakmanis' new, exciting skillset, maybe the offense takes on an entirely new feel in 2023.

— Offensive line: probably the most important piece, and always hard to predict. This staff seems to be pretty good at reloading up front, though.

 

[RememberMurray]

Remainder of the year - I think anything less than 7 is a disaster, 7 is meh, and anything 8+ is a good season. If we win 8+ games this year with both trophy games, it's hard for me not to see that as a really good season.

Next season - it's pretty similar to this year for me, anything under 7 wins is a bad year.

For me, in the next 5 years, it's really about consistently having a good team. I understand we will have some seasons that might be more down here and there, it's natural. But if we are over .500 in the Big 10 for the next 5 seasons, PJ is doing a stellar job.

A bad year doesn't mean we fire our coaches or anything either. You begin thinking of coaching changes when the bad seasons are the expectations.

Well said.

 

[MNVCGUY]

As far as next season is concerned, on offense...

— Autman-Bell leaving, but we have been without him for a few games now.

— Mo leaving is obviously huge, but Trey has shown he can play. The cupboard isn't bare at RB. Hopefully the new guys in the pipeline have some ability. That said, I doubt we'll see a Mo-style "bell cow" at RB next season. More of a 2021 type rotation, I'd guess. This leads directly to...

— Morgan leaving. I am a huge Tanner Morgan fan, but Athan Kaliakmanis looks like a real talent. With Mo leaving and Kaliakmanis' new, exciting skillset, maybe the offense takes on an entirely new feel in 2023.

— Offensive line: probably the most important piece, and always hard to predict. This staff seems to be pretty good at reloading up front, though.

I believe there is a chance we have CRAB back next year unless I have missed something. He will have to get a medical year approved but should have a strong case for a 7th year given when he got hurt this year.

 

[RememberMurray]

I have heard casual fans say, "Same old, same old Gophers."

I disagree. Expectations have been raised.

As far as the remainder of this season is concerned, the last four games of the regular season are winnable. It isn't life-or-death to do so, however.

That being said, if you win the last 4 plus a bowl game, you're 10-3 and your trophy case contains the Axe and Floyd.

That would be remarkable, in my opinion.

 

[MaxyJR1]

You never quite know what to expect in the B1G. Going into this season, I wouldn't have thought that Illinois would be dominant in the West, wouldn't have predicted WI to fire Chryst in early October, and wouldn't have predicted MSU would regress so hard after an 11 win season.

I think our incoming talent is more athletic and has higher ceiling than the outgoing talent, but with the portal, there's a lot of unknowns.

The 2023 schedule is brutal, but these perceptions can change as a season unfolds, so who knows.

Going into the season. WI, Iowa, MN and Pur were mentioned as possible division winners. Illinois is 3-0 vs those teams and no one saw it coming. If they beat Purdue, they win the division even if they lose to MSU and MICH (Assuming they beat NW). They would go 6-0 in division and 0-3 in cross over in that scenario.

 

[Panthadad2]

This year: I think it's realistic to hope for 9 regular season wins and expect 8 wins. Bringing Floyd home is paramount in my mind. If the key players stay healthy (a big if), I think 8 wins is definitely a baseline. The Purdue and Illinois games could have been different if Mo isn't banged up (and Tanner to end the Illinois game).

Going forward: This program is being built to be a perennial winner in the BG10. That could mean 5 conference wins, or it could mean 8 or 9 conference wins in a great year. Anything less than five will be a disappointment in my opinion. Like Iowa, Illinois and even Wisconsin in past years, a great season every few years (hopefully) will require some luck; such as no key injuries, an agreeable schedule, and getting some breaks along the way.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I have heard casual fans say, "Same old, same old Gophers."

I disagree. Expectations have been raised.

As far as the remainder of this season is concerned, the last four games of the regular season are winnable. It isn't life-or-death to do so, however.

That being said, if you win the last 4 plus a bowl game, you're 10-3 and your trophy case contains the Axe and Floyd.

That would be remarkable, in my opinion.

The simple fact that people are as down on things as they are is all proof anyone needs that expectations have been raised.

Not winning the West this year is disappointing because it felt like it was there for the taking. But there can still be plenty of enjoyment to be found in this season and it can still be a very good year. Not the great year we were hoping for but still very good.

Winning the trophy games would go a long way towards removing the sting of not winning the division.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

I have heard casual fans say, "Same old, same old Gophers."

I disagree. Expectations have been raised.

As far as the remainder of this season is concerned, the last four games of the regular season are winnable. It isn't life-or-death to do so, however.

That being said, if you win the last 4 plus a bowl game, you're 10-3 and your trophy case contains the Axe and Floyd.

That would be remarkable, in my opinion.

The casuals don't understand what the same old Gophers are.

If we finish the season 6-6 or 7-5 without any trophies, sure, you can say that.

If we win 8 games in a season where we had some duds, that's proof the bar has been raised.

 

[RememberMurray]

Fleck's first season here was 2017. Since then...

Ferentz: 47-22. Best rankings: #15 in 2019, #15 in 2020*, #23 in 2021. ( *COVID truncated season )

Chryst/Leonard: 48-21. Best rankings: #6 in 2017. #13 in 2019.


Fleck: 40-26. Best ranking: #10 in 2019.

 

[tmvander]

Next season - 6-6
2024 - 8-4 type of season again

somewhere in the next 5 years - 10-2

I think the expectations need to be that once every 5 or so years we have a hell of a season. We're not Ohio St and honestly we aren't even Iowa or Wisconsin yet so expecting 8-4 to be the floor every year is not realistic in my mind...not yet anyway. With that said I think a year or 2 out of every 5 we have to expect 6-6 or maybe a year worse where we're rebuilding.

 

[pk2]

If the Gophers were to win their last four games and their bowl, ending up 10-3 with three regular-season trophies (yep, I count the bits of broken chair), I’d be thrilled!

On the other hand (since there’s no such thing as a one-sided coin), I’d also spend some time in the off-season looking back and being slightly disappointed with one or two of the losses, and wondering, “What if…?”

On the other hand (three-sided coin???), I’d snap back to reality, and think, “Wow, the Gophers won ten games, and I’m slightly disappointed? That’s really cool!”

IMHO, the Gophers are on the right track, and high expectations are a good thing. Sure, there’s always the chance you’ll be disappointed, but it’s really fun to have some hope.

 

[DarrenTheGreek]

College football is not equitable. It favors schools with bigger budgets, bigger boosters, and in states that have a bigger population of football crazy people.

This is the 40th year since I've been following the Gophers. In the previous 39, we've finished above .500 in the Big Ten 8 times....5 times were exacty .500. So in 26 of my 39 years of fandom we've been a below average team for the Big Ten.

I think it is realistic that we can get to being .500 or better roughly 50% of the time. In the last 9 seasons we've done it 5 times....so we're progressing the right way. Just need to prove it consistently. That also means we beat Wisconsin and Iowa at least 50% of the time, Michigan at least 30%. We're severely lacking on that.

 

[Yah-E]

Get me the bacon, keep the axe and take the Jug back next year! Don’t care if what our records is this year or next year.

 

[btowngopher]

For next year the defense will continue to be strong as long as Rossi sticks around. Offense I am really concerned as we don’t have any real difference makers that have emerged, and frankly I don’t know who could potentially emerge that is currently on the roster, maybe AK becomes that guy eventually, but I think that would take some time. The margin of error is so small without big time play makers that it will be tough to put up points.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

OK, let's go back to what Murray said in the OP - wanting MN to be on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin.

I went back 20 seasons, charting # of times a team finished the season in the top 25, and # of seasons with 10 wins or more.

Wisconsin: top 25 - 13 times. 10-wins - 10 times
------Iowa: top 25 - 10 times. 10-wins - 7 times
Minnesota: top 25 - 2 times. 10 wins - 1 time

next - recruiting. I used the on3 site final composite rankings

2023 - MN 50 - WI 32 - IA 29
2022 - MN 55 - WI 37 - IA 33
2021 - MN 29 - WI 17 - IA 23
2020 - MN 38 - WI 28 - IA 32
2019 - MN 42 - WI 29 - IA 41
2018 - MN 38 - WI 37 - IA 35

6-yr Ave: MN 42 - WI 30 - IA 32.2

draw your own conclusions.

 

[MaxyJR1]

8-4 for this year.
Next year will be impossible to predict until we know what is back.
Future depends. 2021 and 2022 guys haven't hit the field yet.

2022 Coleman Bryson is only guy to play 4 games out of HS recruits
2021 D. Green, Walley and Brockington only regulars
2020 (12 Regulars)
2019 (7 Regulars)
2018 (8 Regulars)
2017 (4 Regulars)

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

For next year the defense will continue to be strong as long as Rossi sticks around. Offense I am really concerned as we don’t have any real difference makers that have emerged, and frankly I don’t know who could potentially emerge that is currently on the roster, maybe AK becomes that guy eventually, but I think that would take some time. The margin of error is so small without big time play makers that it will be tough to put up points.

This will be our biggest issue next year.

I would not be surprised to see us grab a RB in the portal.

 

[MNVCGUY]

OK, let's go back to what Murray said in the OP - wanting MN to be on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin.

I went back 20 seasons, charting # of times a team finished the season in the top 25, and # of seasons with 10 wins or more.

Wisconsin: top 25 - 13 times. 10-wins - 10 times
------Iowa: top 25 - 10 times. 10-wins - 7 times
Minnesota: top 25 - 2 times. 10 wins - 1 time

next - recruiting. I used the on3 site final composite rankings

2023 - MN 50 - WI 32 - IA 29
2022 - MN 55 - WI 37 - IA 33
2021 - MN 29 - WI 17 - IA 23
2020 - MN 38 - WI 28 - IA 32
2019 - MN 42 - WI 29 - IA 41
2018 - MN 38 - WI 37 - IA 35

6-yr Ave: MN 42 - WI 30 - IA 32.2

draw your own conclusions.

Here are my conclusions - the recruiting difference on paper is negligible and comparing the past 20 years of the programs isn't comparing apples to apples.

Iowa and Wisconsin have had a really long run of sustained stability within their programs. Iowa has had 2 head coaches since 1979 and Wisconsin had Alvarez starting in 1990 and then becoming the AD to help maintain continuity.

Fleck has spoken many times about wanting to bring Minnesota what Iowa and Wisconsin have had.

I would argue that Fleck basically has Minnesota on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin right now. There isn't a noticeable talent gap between the programs and although he hasn't beaten Iowa yet there have been a number of very close games in the past few years that easily could have gone our way.

 

[cjbfbp]

If next year is big for PJ and expectations are supposed to be realistic, look at what is currently in place, look at the overall results, and look at who is leaving next year. Throw in a very hard schedule and realistically you're looking at a strong chance of a below .500 season. Transfer portal can help mitigate that, but I'd personally expect .500 to be the REALISTIC goal for next year with a new QB, new starting RB, likely new top WR or 2, and replacing 3 linemen. I do expect the defense to be solid and keep them in most games though.

Agree with that. I look at 5-7 next year as something that should be seen as a realistic possibility under the circumstances of the schedule and turnover. I would look at 6-6 as a bit of a relief and acceptable under the circumstances. I would look at 7-5 as a pretty good season given the challenges. 8-4 would be downright impressive.

People have to remember that even good programs have poor years. The second most successful program in the western division, Iowa, is a pretty fair bet to have a losing season this year.

 

[Plato]

My expectations are confined to the conference record because that is the only metric that counts.
The conference record this year should have been the best in years but so far that has not happened.
Next year's conference schedule is much more difficult but the only person's expectation that counts is the AD.
The WI AD fired Chryst because the W/L conference record was trending downward and Chryst was unwilling to change.

 

[cjbfbp]

OK, let's go back to what Murray said in the OP - wanting MN to be on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin.

I went back 20 seasons, charting # of times a team finished the season in the top 25, and # of seasons with 10 wins or more.

Wisconsin: top 25 - 13 times. 10-wins - 10 times
------Iowa: top 25 - 10 times. 10-wins - 7 times
Minnesota: top 25 - 2 times. 10 wins - 1 time

next - recruiting. I used the on3 site final composite rankings

2023 - MN 50 - WI 32 - IA 29
2022 - MN 55 - WI 37 - IA 33
2021 - MN 29 - WI 17 - IA 23
2020 - MN 38 - WI 28 - IA 32
2019 - MN 42 - WI 29 - IA 41
2018 - MN 38 - WI 37 - IA 35

6-yr Ave: MN 42 - WI 30 - IA 32.2

draw your own conclusions.

Typically, those recruiting rankings don't include transfers, though, and we've gotten some good ones in recent years. I don't know how well we've fared in the portal vs. Wisconsin but pretty well I would think. I know we've done better in portal recruiting than Iowa.

Despite lagging most Big Ten teams in prep recruiting, we've had 11 NFL draftees in the past 3 years.

 

[RememberMurray]

OK, let's go back to what Murray said in the OP - wanting MN to be on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin.

I went back 20 seasons, charting # of times a team finished the season in the top 25, and # of seasons with 10 wins or more.

Wisconsin: top 25 - 13 times. 10-wins - 10 times
------Iowa: top 25 - 10 times. 10-wins - 7 times
Minnesota: top 25 - 2 times. 10 wins - 1 time

next - recruiting. I used the on3 site final composite rankings

2023 - MN 50 - WI 32 - IA 29
2022 - MN 55 - WI 37 - IA 33
2021 - MN 29 - WI 17 - IA 23
2020 - MN 38 - WI 28 - IA 32
2019 - MN 42 - WI 29 - IA 41
2018 - MN 38 - WI 37 - IA 35

6-yr Ave: MN 42 - WI 30 - IA 32.2

draw your own conclusions.

Thanks for your reply, SON. And I'm sorry, but I'm going to disagree a little.

First off, I don't see much relevance in anything that happened before Fleck got here. This is about expectations, which are forward-looking. 20 years ago doesn't really figure in, to my mind. If it does, why stop at 20 years? Let's count the Bernie Bierman era, too... and how about Murray Warmath? I understand why you included this info from 20 years ago, but I don't think it matters now. There's no question Iowa and Wisconsin dominated us during that period. Fleck can't change that past; neither can anybody else. What he can do is change the dynamic against them now. This thread is about being as good as Iowa and Wisconsin are right now, and into the future.

Second (and this is more of a question): how accurate are recruiting rankings, generally, when it comes to predicting a team's success? I mean, aren't Nebraska's recruits ranked pretty high, year after year?

That's why I posted Iowa's, Wisconsin's and Minnesota's won-loss records since Fleck got here (2017). If our goal is to be equal to or better than Iowa and Wisconsin, the proof is in the results on the field now and going forward. Not in records from 20 years ago and recruiting ranking. It's about wins and losses on the field.

If memory serves, Fleck is 2-3 against Wisconsin. Win the game in Madison in a few weeks, and we're even with them on the field since Fleck got here.

Iowa? Fleck has some work ahead of him there, starting November 19 at The Bank.

 

[RememberMurray]

A side note, regarding Iowa and Wisconsin...

Both teams seem to be at or nearing some sort of crossroads.

Wisconsin just fired their coach. Stay tuned on that one.

It's anybody's guess how long Kirk stays on at Iowa; the man is 67 years old and I have to believe he's under increasing pressure on a variety of fronts (racial issues, his son, their offensive philosophy). It's not beyond the realm of possibility that there is a regime change in Iowa City in the not-too-distant future.

 

[RememberMurray]

College football is not equitable. It favors schools with bigger budgets, bigger boosters, and in states that have a bigger population of football crazy people.

This is the 40th year since I've been following the Gophers. In the previous 39, we've finished above .500 in the Big Ten 8 times....5 times were exacty .500. So in 26 of my 39 years of fandom we've been a below average team for the Big Ten.

I think it is realistic that we can get to being .500 or better roughly 50% of the time. In the last 9 seasons we've done it 5 times....so we're progressing the right way. Just need to prove it consistently. That also means we beat Wisconsin and Iowa at least 50% of the time, Michigan at least 30%. We're severely lacking on that.

Good points.

 

[RememberMurray]

Here are my conclusions - the recruiting difference on paper is negligible and comparing the past 20 years of the programs isn't comparing apples to apples.

Iowa and Wisconsin have had a really long run of sustained stability within their programs. Iowa has had 2 head coaches since 1979 and Wisconsin had Alvarez starting in 1990 and then becoming the AD to help maintain continuity.

Fleck has spoken many times about wanting to bring Minnesota what Iowa and Wisconsin have had.

I would argue that Fleck basically has Minnesota on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin right now. There isn't a noticeable talent gap between the programs and although he hasn't beaten Iowa yet there have been a number of very close games in the past few years that easily could have gone our way.

I agree. Your point about stability is right on.

We are really close to our rivals' level. Need to beat the Hawkeyes this year.

When was the last time Minnesota beat both of them in the same season?