Realistic expectations

[cjbfbp]

A side note, regarding Iowa and Wisconsin...

Both teams seem to be at or nearing some sort of crossroads.

Wisconsin just fired their coach. Stay tuned on that one.

It's anybody's guess how long Kirk stays on at Iowa; the man is 67 years old and I have to believe he's under increasing pressure on a variety of fronts (racial issues, his son, their offensive philosophy). It's not beyond the realm of possibility that there is a regime change in Iowa City in the not-too-distant future.

Ferentz's contract runs until he is 75 and he has a mega buyout. I don't think he's going anywhere in the near future.

 

[Dano564]

OK, let's go back to what Murray said in the OP - wanting MN to be on the same level as Iowa and Wisconsin.

I went back 20 seasons, charting # of times a team finished the season in the top 25, and # of seasons with 10 wins or more.

Wisconsin: top 25 - 13 times. 10-wins - 10 times
------Iowa: top 25 - 10 times. 10-wins - 7 times
Minnesota: top 25 - 2 times. 10 wins - 1 time

next - recruiting. I used the on3 site final composite rankings

2023 - MN 50 - WI 32 - IA 29
2022 - MN 55 - WI 37 - IA 33
2021 - MN 29 - WI 17 - IA 23
2020 - MN 38 - WI 28 - IA 32
2019 - MN 42 - WI 29 - IA 41
2018 - MN 38 - WI 37 - IA 35

6-yr Ave: MN 42 - WI 30 - IA 32.2

draw your own conclusions.

Why did you go back 20 seasons for one, and only 6 seasons for the recruiting?

You need to bring in 20 years of recruiting if you want to correlate it to 20 years of history.

By mixing years of selection for your data, it's almost like you are trying to compare apples to oranges.

 

[Dano564]

Typically, those recruiting rankings don't include transfers, though, and we've gotten some good ones in recent years. I don't know how well we've fared in the portal vs. Wisconsin but pretty well I would think. I know we've done better in portal recruiting than Iowa.

Despite lagging most Big Ten teams in prep recruiting, we've had 11 NFL draftees in the past 3 years.

Iowa is still learning what the transfer portal is.
They've made zero use of it so far and only lost players via TP.

 

[RememberMurray]

Ferentz's contract runs until he is 75 and he has a mega buyout. I don't think he's going anywhere in the near future.

WOW! Seventy-five!?!

I didn't know that. I had no idea.

You seem pretty knowledgable, so let me ask this: Does Kirk's contract mean he is more or less invulnerable and doesn't have to take any crap from anybody else? If so, it would explain why he hasn't fired his son.

 

[#2Gopher]

Ferentz's contract runs until he is 75 and he has a mega buyout. I don't think he's going anywhere in the near future.

Ferentz clearly looking out for himself with the buyout. Doesn't have to fire his son and allows him to make more money at Iowa than any other place for a while. Administration screwed up.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

As far as next season is concerned, on offense...

— Autman-Bell leaving, but we have been without him for a few games now.

— Mo leaving is obviously huge, but Trey has shown he can play. The cupboard isn't bare at RB. Hopefully the new guys in the pipeline have some ability. That said, I doubt we'll see a Mo-style "bell cow" at RB next season. More of a 2021 type rotation, I'd guess. This leads directly to...

— Morgan leaving. I am a huge Tanner Morgan fan, but Athan Kaliakmanis looks like a real talent. With Mo leaving and Kaliakmanis' new, exciting skillset, maybe the offense takes on an entirely new feel in 2023.

— Offensive line: probably the most important piece, and always hard to predict. This staff seems to be pretty good at reloading up front, though.

Next year will be fun. We should be realistic because of the amount of experience we will be losing but it will be fun. It'll be cool to see what Athan can do. The defense could be really good depending upon Nubin (who I don't think will be back). But our DL should be really good, our corners should be fantastic.

I like that some of these new starters are going to be seeing Ohio State and Michigan right away.

 

[RememberMurray]

Next year will be fun. We should be realistic because of the amount of experience we will be losing but it will be fun. It'll be cool to see what Athan can do. The defense could be really good depending upon Nubin (who I don't think will be back). But our DL should be really good, our corners should be fantastic.

I like that some of these new starters are going to be seeing Ohio State and Michigan right away.

Maybe the maturation of Striggow and Joyner will help us generate a better pass rush.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Maybe the maturation of Striggow and Joyner will help us generate a better pass rush.

Yeah, I think it will. Joyner, Striggow, Logan-Redding, and Eastern.

It'll be interesting to see if Booker and Bixby are ready too.

 

[FanSinceTheFifties]

Fleck has raised my expectations a bit. Over the next five years:
Win 12 of 15 non-conference games
Beat UW 3 of 5
Beat UI 2 of 5
Win 28 of 45 conference games
Win 3 of 5 bowl games
Finish in the top 25 once

 

[swingman]

Lot of talk in this thread about trying to be like Iowa and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Bielema just out-coaches the Big Ten West with similar or worse talent (on paper) and a terrible history of success since Zook.

We will see what happens vs Purdue and down the stretch and in year three (was 2022 Bret 2021 Tucker?), but, boy, he sure has raised the expectations for me so far on what is doable.

If Illinois in year two can put together a team that beats Iowa, WI, MN (for second straight year), and Neb, not sure why that isn't the expectation for PJ in year 6, or 7.

 

[RememberMurray]

Lot of talk in this thread about trying to be like Iowa and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Bielema just out-coaches the Big Ten West with similar or worse talent (on paper) and a terrible history of success since Zook.

We will see what happens vs Purdue and down the stretch and in year three (was 2022 Bret 2021 Tucker?), but, boy, he sure has raised the expectations for me so far on what is doable.

If Illinois in year two can put together a team that beats Iowa, WI, MN (for second straight year), and Neb, not sure why that isn't the expectation for PJ in year 6, or 7.

I'm with you in that I admire the job Bielema has done, but I also agree with your point that we should see how the season plays out and how sustainable the success is before we say he's the new Bernie Bierman.

Regarding your other point: would you bet against the Gophers beating Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin this season?

 

[cjbfbp]

WOW! Seventy-five!?!

I didn't know that. I had no idea.

You seem pretty knowledgable, so let me ask this: Does Kirk's contract mean he is more or less invulnerable and doesn't have to take any crap from anybody else? If so, it would explain why he hasn't fired his son.

Well, Iowa is actually my undergrad alma mater and I have a small group of close friends since those days who are still diehard Iowa fans (I converted about 9 years ago) so they fill me in on this stuff. As far as your question, well, Ferentz always seemed pretty arrogant to me so I suspect he does feel that way.

 

[RememberMurray]

Well, Iowa is actually my undergrad alma mater and I have a small group of close friends since those days who are still diehard Iowa fans (I converted about 9 years ago) so they fill me in on this stuff. As far as your question, well, Ferentz always seemed pretty arrogant to me so I suspect he does feel that way.

After seeing Auburn fire Harsin despite his buyout, I have to wonder if the money is less of a factor nowadays. Sounds like Harsin gets $15.5 million and they're already paying Gus Malzahn $21.7 million to not coach.

That's a total of $37.2 million in buyout money. Auburn ain't messin' around.

Not sure how big Ferentz's buyout is, but I am beginning to think schools are willing to pay the buyout if they think a change is necessary..