Realistic expectations for 2023-24?

[golfing18now]

I have always said he gets 4 or 5 years minimum. However- if he wins 2 to 4 games next year - they would have no choice but to fire him. I think we are going to make a big, big jump next year and win 7 or more Big Ten games. Still not acceptable but he keeps his job at that level.

So basically we are hoping to get back to the number of wins in year three that got Pitino fired in his last year. Gophers basketball is not for those that like to be front runners. Get out of Weakling Wednesday next year and go from there, I guess.

 

[Gopherfan84]

Just as a sampler- I looked at DeLaSalle stats through 30 games- they shoot 76% on FTs and their opponents shoot 71%. We shoot 60%

Most HS shoot for 70% free throw shooting as a team. It is pretty dependent on the players though. I’d bet 70% of a high school teams FTs are shot by 2-3 players.

 

[skiumah1]

Cooper
Christie (Could easily be Carrington or Henley)
Battle
Garcia
Payne

This is our current lineup (minus Christie) and we are getting destroyed. If this is our lineup next season (unless Christie is all american as a freshman) we will go 1-19 in conference again.

Bench will be much deeper. I expect Battle to be better after this offseason. He's not this bad. Payne will be much better. Garcia is just a good player. Carrington and Henley you'd think would improve as well. I like Christie as a player.

Also now you've given all of these guys time to play together.

I'm not saying we'll be great, but we'll be competitive. 6+ Wins in Big Ten.

 

[Gopherfan84]

I'm not making anything up. The B1G is one of the few leagues that has some teams that roll out a traditional center. I also believe that's the main reason those teams never go deep into the tournament.

3 of the final four teams all had a traditional centers. B1G is slower and that hurts it. It’s more physical as well. Most college basketball teams still carry a 5.

I'll agree that basketball is positionless in the way that you only need two positions, guards and forwards, and there's a big difference between the two. The best teams typically start 3 guards and 2 forwards who can play inside and out.

Fair

I actually thought Ben was going to build his roster that way after what he brought in last season, which was hurt by the Fox/Ihnen injuries, and that gave me a little hope for him. I soured significantly on his future when he recruited away from that last offseason. This is the way Tubby's teams were built, and was why he ultimately failed, except they have significantly less talent now.

Interesting. So you don’t like the additions of Payne and Evans? We aren’t taking a center in 2024 unless something crazy happens. I just don’t think he’s accumulating them at an astonishing rate. I do see some of the tubby similarities in building and I like the length. Need a quicker guard though no doubt.

 

[bga1]

So basically we are hoping to get back to the number of wins in year three that got Pitino fired in his last year. Gophers basketball is not for those that like to be front runners. Get out of Weakling Wednesday next year and go from there, I guess.

It stinks. If Ben can put us on an upward trajectory that makes people believe again...they see that a future gives us a chance to compete for the upper half of the conference....that works for next year. After that he has to produce some shots at a Big Ten title and an annual shot at the NCAAs. The problem for Pitino was that there didn't end up being anything that appeared to be sustainable.

I was one who hung in there until the latter half of his last season- because I believed that what is happening now would follow if they axed him. Never doubt the U's ability to underwhelm with a hire.

 

[cjbfbp]

100% option 2. They have made up their minds on Johnson so they will do anything possible to make him look bad.

Honestly, I'm not sure why they try so hard. Johnson doesn't need relentless hecklers to look bad.

Here are my thoughts about the coach so far.

1) The results to date have been abysmal; there's no denying that.

2) I don't have a strong convinction that he can or cannot turn it around.

3) He's faced difficult circumstances in his first two years and competing goals that may have muddied the waters a bit.

a. He had to recruit essentially a new team for his first year. He started too late to rely on the freshman recruiting market as there wouldn't be a bounty of good and accessible recruits to get from there. That made him staff his roster with almost all transfers.

b. Because he more or less pledged to recruit more high school players from in-state than we've had recently, he had to start demonstrating that he was going to do that. Because he had to have places for them, most of those transfers mentioned above had to be short-timers. That resulted in him having an almost completely new team in his second year as well. Although his freshmen recruits were decent, they weren't all the most D1 ready.

4) His 2023 freshmen recruits are about as highly rated as we could expect and higher than any pair recruited here in a long time.

5) I do blame him for not recruiting an additional transfer big man in 2021 and an additional guard in 2022. I hope he has learned his lesson and will try his best to get roster space for at least one capable transfer guard for 2023.

6) In terms of playing together and for him, next year's team should be his most experienced by far so he must show something when the disadvantages of his first two years no longer apply.

 

[GopherOhana]

I have always said he gets 4 or 5 years minimum. However- if he wins 2 to 4 games next year - they would have no choice but to fire him. I think we are going to make a big, big jump next year and win 7 or more Big Ten games. Still not acceptable but he keeps his job at that level.

would love to see the jump in wins.

good guys playing bad basketball is disheartening.

 

[skiumah1]

I'm not saying Ben has done a good job - He wasted a year with nothing to show for it in year 1.

But to act like there's no hope with the 2 recruits coming in next year (Both Top 100, 1 Top 20), along with likely everyone coming back, is also off.

The young guards will get better with an offseason. If Ben can get a decent/capable guard to come in for a year or two, which I also believe he will do, no question we'll be significantly improved next year.

 

[bga1]

Honestly, I'm not sure why they try so hard. Johnson doesn't need relentless hecklers to look bad.

a. He had to recruit essentially a new team for his first year. He started too late to rely on the freshman recruiting market as there wouldn't be a bounty of good and accessible recruits to get from there. That made him staff his roster with almost all transfers.

Good post.

As to point 'a.' - this is the downside of going for a guy who never had a D1 head coaching job. Shaka Smart, for example, brought 3 freshman recruits with him. Then, our staff was assembled slowly and they missed any opportunity to close on anyone but portal kids.

The whole thing is different if you bring in an experienced guy who makes people believe something will happen right away. Maybe that guy keeps Gabe or Johnson and if it's a really high end guy like Musselman, maybe he keeps Carr? Perhaps an experienced guy doesn't need Thorson as a mentor so he has the luxury of keeping Robbins and his uncle.

With Ben, everyone knew it was going to get blown up. And it did. None of that is Ben's fault- it's just the situation they decided to create at the administration level.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

one thought on the whole roster management issue.

Fox and Ihnen each missing two consecutive seasons with ACL's - something that could not reasonably be predicted - is a big part of the reason for the unbalanced roster.

if they had not each been injured for two straight seasons, they would have already used up their eligibility and two more roster spots would be available to bring in new/different players - maybe even a guard or two.

I suppose one could argue that Ben could have tried to convince them to leave, but if they wanted to stay, MN had an obligation to keep them on the roster.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

I agree with the first bolded sentence. I think from the standpoint of scholarships available for incoming freshmen in 2023, Johnson probably recruited as well as possibly could be expected for a Minnesota coach and particularly one that doesn't have much of a history. The average per freshman recruit ranking for Minnesota ranks at #5 in the Big Ten for 2023 according to the service cited and there are only fractional differences between our ranking and numbers 2 through 4. Only Michigan State (at #1) has a measurably higher average rating.

As to the second bolded sentence, yes, more good players is better than fewer but that determination requires looking at holdovers and transfer acquisitions. These rankings do not include transfers at this time. Obviously our holdovers are not at the higher end of the league but there is a limit to how many holdovers one can, or would want to, force into the portal.

I completely agree, it requires looking at the rest of your roster. It also requires considering the structure of the roster. It's why with basketball team rankings each year isn't really a good indicator.

 

[cjbfbp]

So basically we are hoping to get back to the number of wins in year three that got Pitino fired in his last year.

Well, I hope the results next year are better than that - at least a winning season.

But, the contradictory treatment you describe is not surprising. The expectations for an 8th year coach are not the same as they are for a 3rd year coach and the longer you keep paying someone substantial amounts of money for underperformance, the more aggravated people become. Expectations may be lower for Ben Johnson than most 3rd year coaches but the circumstances of his first two years were more difficult as well. Yes, I know some will say "Coach X did this within two years and Coach Y did this" but they never do the research to see how many coaches who faced difficult circumstances failed to do those things in a short period of time. I don't imagine that Johnson will ever approach Scott Drew's level of success but Drew's first four seasons at Baylor were losing ones. Yes, I know they were on probation.

 

[skiumah1]

Honestly, I'm not sure why they try so hard. Johnson doesn't need relentless hecklers to look bad.

Here are my thoughts about the coach so far.

1) The results to date have been abysmal; there's no denying that.

2) I don't have a strong convinction that he can or cannot turn it around.

3) He's faced difficult circumstances in his first two years and competing goals that may have muddied the waters a bit.

a. He had to recruit essentially a new team for his first year. He started too late to rely on the freshman recruiting market as there wouldn't be a bounty of good and accessible recruits to get from there. That made him staff his roster with almost all transfers.

b. Because he more or less pledged to recruit more high school players from in-state than we've had recently, he had to start demonstrating that he was going to do that. Because he had to have places for them, most of those transfers mentioned above had to be short-timers. That resulted in him having an almost completely new team in his second year as well. Although his freshmen recruits were decent, they weren't all the most D1 ready.

4) His 2023 freshmen recruits are about as highly rated as we could expect and higher than any pair recruited here in a long time.

5) I do blame him for not recruiting an additional transfer big man in 2021 and an additional guard in 2022. I hope he has learned his lesson and will try his best to get roster space for at least one capable transfer guard for 2023.

6) In terms of playing together and for him, next year's team should be his most experienced by far so he must show something when the disadvantages of his first two years no longer apply.

Agreed and good points - Next year is a big one for him and I think there's reason for optimism.

 

[cjbfbp]

one thought on the whole roster management issue.

Fox and Ihnen each missing two consecutive seasons with ACL's - something that could not reasonably be predicted - is a big part of the reason for the unbalanced roster.

if they had not each been injured for two straight seasons, they would have already used up their eligibility and two more roster spots would be available to bring in new/different players - maybe even a guard or two.

I suppose one could argue that Ben could have tried to convince them to leave, but if they wanted to stay, MN had an obligation to keep them on the roster.

Technically, Ihnen could have played one more even if he had been eligible the last two seasons. I don't see Johnson having an obligation to Fox after this season. Grad students aren't entitled to three years of an athletic scholarship.

 

[cjbfbp]

I completely agree, it requires looking at the rest of your roster. It also requires considering the structure of the roster. It's why with basketball team rankings each year isn't really a good indicator.

Yes, some have questioned having Payne and Evans together but I don't see how a program like ours cannot take a player with Evans' stature if they have a chance to get him. You take him and make it work however you can.

 

[BarnBurner]

If you want to read some funny threads, look at some of them from this offseason where people voiced concern about not signing any wings.

It's actually pretty funny. There is a lot of "well, Ben's the coach, he doesn't seem concerned and I trust him more than you" and things where they compare Samuels to Willis.

It's funny.

I remember. Same guys now wont admit the obvious.

 

[BarnBurner]

The shooting is not fine.

We are the worst 3 point shooting team in the conference at 30%. That, not to mention the fact that our free throw shooting is the worst in the country. I think we would be bad at free throws by high school standards! Shooting is killing us.

The there is rebounding- this one stunned me. This year with a much bigger team we are -4.9 on rebounding margin in all games. Last year with a bunch of guards we were -2.2

Coach 8-4 is drinking today........

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

3 of the final four teams all had a traditional centers. B1G is slower and that hurts it. It’s more physical as well. Most college basketball teams still carry a 5.

I'll give you that. Mark Williams and McCormack were, but Kansas may be just as good or better without a true center this year. Bacot is a traditional PF, and Houston had Carlton, but much like Kansas they may be better without a true C this year. All of those teams were still guard led teams. None of the centers they had were their top 2 or 3 best players.

Interesting. So you don’t like the additions of Payne and Evans? We aren’t taking a center in 2024 unless something crazy happens. I just don’t think he’s accumulating them at an astonishing rate. I do see some of the tubby similarities in building and I like the length. Need a quicker guard though no doubt.

I like Payne and Evans, but I thought Payne would have more of an outside game. Do you think they are going to be able to play much together on the court at the same time? I don't. That's a big problem when 2 of your top recruits play the same position, and that's a position that continues to be less important in today's game.

We don't have any great players, or even average B1G players at the guard position, which wins in today's game. That's not going to change next season unless Ben does something completely different than what he has done since he arrived here this offseason.

 

[Gopher Teeth]

Most HS shoot for 70% free throw shooting as a team. It is pretty dependent on the players though. I’d bet 70% of a high school teams FTs are shot by 2-3 players.

Are you trying to rationalize why it’s not so bad that most HS teams shoot better FT % then our scholarship players?

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Yes, some have questioned having Payne and Evans together but I don't see how a program like ours cannot take a player with Evans' stature if they have a chance to get him. You take him and make it work however you can.

I agree 100%.

Even if they can't play together, I'll take 20 minutes from both of them. I think they will be able to play together a bit but the PF logjam makes things weird.

 

[EasyThere Pilgrim]

I remember. Same guys now wont admit the obvious.

Yeah it's going to be funny watching you guys in 2 years. When Ben has the base built up...you guys will say "hey he's finally taking my advice about having a good team".

 

[EasyThere Pilgrim]

That's not quite accurate. Yes, our average ranking per recruit for 2023 is higher (significantly I'd say) than theirs (a fact that seems to be either not understood or dishonestly ignored by Wet Blanket and Gopher Weather) but all three of PSU's recruits are ranked by 247 (#71, #181, #189). Being ranked in the 180s might not seem so impressive but Payne was only slightly higher and the remainder of this year's Gopher freshmen were ranked lower.

I think one should strive for accuracy regardless of the side taken in an argument and check your "facts" before posting them. Wet Blanket and Gopher Weather guys may be dumb, or dishonest, or lazy, or sloppy, or some mixture of all of the above, but you should not follow their examples. They're probably irredeemable but you may not be.

I listed the Rivals and 247 rankings.

You listed the 247 Composite rankings...which includes sites that don't focus on recruiting and don't update.

Even so, (as you know) we're still ranked higher than Penn State in 2023...unless you rank by quantity over quality.

Plus 2 out of 3 of Penn State's recruits are the sons of the coaches.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Yeah it's going to be funny watching you guys in 2 years. When Ben has the base built up...you guys will say "hey he's finally taking my advice about having a good team".

Pure Gold.

 

[Gopherfan84]

I'll give you that. Mark Williams and McCormack were, but Kansas may be just as good or better without a true center this year. Bacot is a traditional PF, and Houston had Carlton, but much like Kansas they may be better without a true C this year. All of those teams were still guard led teams. None of the centers they had were their top 2 or 3 best players.



I like Payne and Evans, but I thought Payne would have more of an outside game. Do you think they are going to be able to play much together on the court at the same time? I don't. That's a big problem when 2 of your top recruits play the same position, and that's a position that continues to be less important in today's game.

We don't have any great players, or even average B1G players at the guard position, which wins in today's game. That's not going to change next season unless Ben does something completely different than what he has done since he arrived here this offseason.

I don’t disagree that guards are huge during the tournament. So is a big that can stretch the floor.
I don’t think Payne and Evans play more than 5-6 minutes a game together and I see it as a positive. It’ll allow them both to play aggressive and for Ben to play the hot hand. Also allows Evans to come in a grow.
I don’t think we are as far away as you to being successful next season(bubble team). I think we need one guard, freshman to take a normal jump, and some reasonable health (not losing 2 of our top 6 for the season).

 

[Gopherfan84]

Are you trying to rationalize why it’s not so bad that most HS teams shoot better FT % then our scholarship players?

No, I was answering a question someone asked about what’s normal for high school. Calm down.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Is a realistic expectation that we get to a point where, if someone posts the coach's career B1G record without additional comment, it doesn't feel like they are taking a shot at the coach?

 

[Dakota2]

I really don't think you understand.

I am an alumni, the son of an alumnus. The Minnesota mentality of looking for positives and thinking "maybe next year" is what rewards mediocrity because it weakens strengths and keep weaknesses from being strengthened.

People love to claim the basketball program has no identity and it is true because it has never been held to on-the-court standards of play like 50% FG shooting, 90% FT shooting, 35% 3-point shooting, following up on shots, grabbing offensive rebounds.

When standards are applied they are off court standards, appeasing the administration and faculty to the detriment of the players and the program.

The last twenty years of basketball incompetence has erased my "looking for positives" approach because every time there is an on-the-court improvement it is followed by off-the-court violations. It's like the administration yanks the program's chain once it starts succeeding. If you doubt that, then look back at how Kimberly Hewitt, the Head of the EEOA, threatened Jerry Kill about the behavior of the football program. Then tell me that wouldn't be easily applied to the MBB program. Presto! We have the 2016 MBB scandal.

The time for change is now, from the administration and faculty to let the basketball programs, and the athletic department, in general, have more control over their destinies.

Do you have specific bullet points you could release to trigger "the time for change is now" program?

And feel free to tell me what else I don't understand after buying a total of 98 years of season tickets at Williams Arena.

 

[EasyThere Pilgrim]

Is a realistic expectation that we get to a point where, if someone posts the coach's career B1G record without additional comment, it doesn't feel like they are taking a shot at the coach?

No.

Clem's career B1G record was 15-39 when he got us to the Sweet-16.

And 26-46 when he got us to the Elite Eight (should have been Final Four).

 

[Willwin40]

I think Payne and Evans will play a lot at the same time. Payne at the low post and Evans at the high post.

 

[cjbfbp]

The time for change is now, from the administration and faculty to let the basketball programs, and the athletic department, in general, have more control over their destinies.

You do realize, don't you, that producing good sports teams is not the primary purpose of a university?

I'm sure there are many administrators and far more faculty than administrators across the country that would love to see you get your wish and kick athletics completely out the door. I say this from many years of experience in higher education. But, this is the incongruous mix that our society has chosen and allowed to develop and flourish for over a century. There are lots of good basketball players in Europe and internationally who develop very well outside of the collegiate structure. For some reason our society has grown to believe that athletics and academics should be intertwined. As long as you have that structure, you're going to have to tolerate frequently less than sympathetic attitudes from administrators and faculty.