Reading between lines, expect fans to be present?

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MplsGopher said:
Right, so back to that part of it.

What are Iowa and Wisconsin doing/planning for?
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Nothing different as of now. Michigan Governor recommending playing football in the spring and Tennessee delaying the start of the season until end of August.
A number of MN schools have experienced positive Covid cases at summer training for all sports. Similar to the BIG schools bringing athletes back
 

Well, if the worst that happens is a team has to forfeit some games because kids get sick ... why does that mean the season needs to be cancelled?

Those age, are almost guaranteed not to suffer severe illness.

Limit fans in the stands or have none. But play the games.
 

MplsGopher said:
Well, if the worst that happens is a team has to forfeit some games because kids get sick ... why does that mean the season needs to be cancelled?

Those age, are almost guaranteed not to suffer severe illness.

Limit fans in the stands or have none. But play the games.
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I don’t disagree with you.
I think we should play the games.

I’m telling you that if there isn’t regular school there won’t be any games based on what I know about the MSHSL
 

MplsGopher said:
Well, if the worst that happens is a team has to forfeit some games because kids get sick ... why does that mean the season needs to be cancelled?

Those age, are almost guaranteed not to suffer severe illness.

Limit fans in the stands or have none. But play the games.
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with all due respect, you're thinking like a fan. You have to put yourself in the mindset of a Superintendent or the Commissioner of the State Dept of Education. There are other issues here than simply playing the games.

Like it or not, there are issues of liability. It's easy to say "so what if some kids get sick" when you do not have a legal responsibility to safeguard the health and safety of those kids - and you are not answerable to the parents of those kids.

And it's not just kids - you have coaches, referees and other people involved who are older and some of them may be in higher-risk groups.

School officials are some of the most risk-averse people in the world.

The MN Dept of Education is going to come out with an advisory at the end of July. at this point, I put the odds at about 50-50 that we will have kids back in school buildings this fall. and if the kids are not back in the buildings, we are not playing football.

and FWIW, the head of the MSHSL came out in an interview recently and said he thinks it's possible that football teams will not be playing games this fall.
 


short ornery norwegian said:
with all due respect, you're thinking like a fan. You have to put yourself in the mindset of a Superintendent or the Commissioner of the State Dept of Education. There are other issues here than simply playing the games.

Like it or not, there are issues of liability. It's easy to say "so what if some kids get sick" when you do not have a legal responsibility to safeguard the health and safety of those kids - and you are not answerable to the parents of those kids.

And it's not just kids - you have coaches, referees and other people involved who are older and some of them may be in higher-risk groups.

School officials are some of the most risk-averse people in the world.

The MN Dept of Education is going to come out with an advisory at the end of July. at this point, I put the odds at about 50-50 that we will have kids back in school buildings this fall. and if the kids are not back in the buildings, we are not playing football.

and FWIW, the head of the MSHSL came out in an interview recently and said he thinks it's possible that football teams will not be playing games this fall.
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Spot on
 

Some guy said:
I don’t disagree with you.
I think we should play the games.

I’m telling you that if there isn’t regular school there won’t be any games based on what I know about the MSHSL
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Bolded: this was your main point at the start, and I apologize for neglecting it. I think you're likely to be correct, in a sense. I would alter your wording to be that if there is only online classes this fall, then there won't be fall sports. If there is some type of a hybrid/rotating model, then there will.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
with all due respect, you're thinking like a fan. You have to put yourself in the mindset of a Superintendent or the Commissioner of the State Dept of Education. There are other issues here than simply playing the games.

Like it or not, there are issues of liability. It's easy to say "so what if some kids get sick" when you do not have a legal responsibility to safeguard the health and safety of those kids - and you are not answerable to the parents of those kids.

And it's not just kids - you have coaches, referees and other people involved who are older and some of them may be in higher-risk groups.

School officials are some of the most risk-averse people in the world.

The MN Dept of Education is going to come out with an advisory at the end of July. at this point, I put the odds at about 50-50 that we will have kids back in school buildings this fall. and if the kids are not back in the buildings, we are not playing football.

and FWIW, the head of the MSHSL came out in an interview recently and said he thinks it's possible that football teams will not be playing games this fall.
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Liability is a non-issue, in my layman's (worthless) opinion. Kids can get hurt playing any sport, and hurt badly sometimes. Do parents sue the school district because of that? They certainly could, if negligence was discovered to be a contributing factor. I just don't hear of that very often.

Coaches, refs, support staff ... as you say, these are all likely older (relatively) folks who are thus more at risk. No one is talking about forcing anyone to do anything, though.


Comes down to bolded, like I responded to Some Guy. If it's only online class, then I agree there won't be sports.

Public grade schools don't have the same fundamental issue that colleges and universities have to worry about, with enrollment and tuition. They can afford to "take a year off" and will survive just fine.
 

Some guy said:
What death rate? The death rate per case? Or the number of deaths per capita?

I assume you realize the outbreak is not over in any of those 4 countries?

I assume you realize one of the most effective countries at dealing with the disease didn’t shut everything down (South Korea)

There are a lot of variables.
mask wearing
Lockdown
Timing of the lockdown
Adherence to the lockdown rules
Population density
Demographic factors
General health of the population
Hospital capacity
Nurses per capita
Doctors per capita
Temperature


www.forbes.com

Majority Of New Coronavirus Cases In New York Are From People Staying At Home—Not Traveling Or Working

Cuomo says "much of this comes down to what you do to protect yourself."
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
Here is an article from New York talking about how the new cases in the heat of the upswing were from people who stayed at home. This information may be out of date right now.


There has yet to be a statistical study showing that a general lockdown is an effective strategy to deal with coronavirus. At least not one that I’ve seen.
In the United States the worst outbreaks have been New York and New Jersey who had some of the strictest lockdown guidlines. While there are breakouts in states that relaxed guidelines right now, they’ve yet to approach the levels seen in New York City at peak. I’ve not read any studies the past few weeks so I won’t cite sources about the studies showing there is no difference: those studies are likely outdated by now. The data could very well show that lockdowns in the forms they happened worked.

Anecdotally, I think some elements of the lockdown worked quite well and other parts of it may have even hurt and caused the spread to happen faster. For instance, when absolutely everything was closed more people were likely to break the lockdown and get together inside someone’s home which may increase the spread. When outdoor social gatherings were allowed people were more likely to adhere to the guidelines.

It May be better to have a medium intensity policy that people actually follow than the strictest policy that 70% of the population ignores or can’t adhere to.
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Per population. You said the results haven’t been much different but they have.
 



MplsGopher said:
Liability is a non-issue, in my layman's (worthless) opinion. Kids can get hurt playing any sport, and hurt badly sometimes. Do parents sue the school district because of that? They certainly could, if negligence was discovered to be a contributing factor. I just don't hear of that very often.

Coaches, refs, support staff ... as you say, these are all likely older (relatively) folks who are thus more at risk. No one is talking about forcing anyone to do anything, though.


Comes down to bolded, like I responded to Some Guy. If it's only online class, then I agree there won't be sports.

Public grade schools don't have the same fundamental issue that colleges and universities have to worry about, with enrollment and tuition. They can afford to "take a year off" and will survive just fine.
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IMHO people go to this liability issue out of fear or lack of knowledge, or both. It comes up regularly whenever people/organizations get nervous about doing something new or different... or against the crowd. I recently heard this in a church committee discussion about reopening in-person worship. " even though the state says we can open, we're worried about our insurance and our liability of someone gets sick." Had anyone bothered to check with our insurance carrier? No. Had anyone heard of another church being found liable for anything COVID-related? No. It is just a default position that people take when they are worried.
 


Crosby said:
IMHO people go to this liability issue out of fear or lack of knowledge, or both. It comes up regularly whenever people/organizations get nervous about doing something new or different... or against the crowd. I recently heard this in a church committee discussion about reopening in-person worship. " even though the state says we can open, we're worried about our insurance and our liability of someone gets sick." Had anyone bothered to check with our insurance carrier? No. Had anyone heard of another church being found liable for anything COVID-related? No. It is just a default position that people take when they are worried.
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If I get meningitis at college and have lasting impacts does the general population think my college should pay for the rest of my life?

serious question I don’t know the answer to

I know my answer is no I don’t


it’s like going to a hookah bar every day, not smoking hookah, and then suing The hookah bar when you get lung cancer in 20 years.

Okay maybe it had an impact but you’re an idiot
 

Some guy said:
If I get meningitis at college and have lasting impacts does the general population think my college should pay for the rest of my life?

serious question I don’t know the answer to

I know my answer is no I don’t


it’s like going to a hookah bar every day, not smoking hookah, and then suing The hookah bar when you get lung cancer in 20 years.

Okay maybe it had an impact but you’re an idiot
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That's why we have juries of humans, as they can decide what passes the smell test and make a reasonable judgement.
 




GoldenRodents said:
If we close schools and football in Fall of 2020 then nobody should ever take a vaccine for measles, mumps etc, the risk profile for healthy children and students is similar.
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You can tell yourself whatever falsehoods help you sleep at night.
 

MplsGopher said:
Bolded: this was your main point at the start, and I apologize for neglecting it. I think you're likely to be correct, in a sense. I would alter your wording to be that if there is only online classes this fall, then there won't be fall sports. If there is some type of a hybrid/rotating model, then there will.
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That could be true...but I think football is definitely not happening without regular classes
 

MplsGopher said:
That's why we have juries of humans, as they can decide what passes the smell test and make a reasonable judgement.
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Which is why the more you read and watch anything the more worries you are about liability. If your lawyers mess up jury selection you are SOL
 



GoldenRodents said:
Hey @MplsGopher, what level Math did you complete in school?
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Ad hominem (Latin for 'to the person'), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a term that refers to several types of arguments, most of which are fallacious. Typically this term refers to a rhetorical strategy where the speaker attacks the character, motive, or some other attribute of the person making an argument rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself. This avoids genuine debate by creating a diversion to some irrelevant but often highly charged issue.
 

Taji34 said:
Ad hominem (Latin for 'to the person'), short for argumentum ad hominem, is a term that refers to several types of arguments, most of which are fallacious. Typically this term refers to a rhetorical strategy where the speaker attacks the character, motive, or some other attribute of the person making an argument rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself. This avoids genuine debate by creating a diversion to some irrelevant but often highly charged issue.
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So you're admitting innumeracy?
 




Ski U Master said:
Can you share the source? The chart you posted has no attribution. Just would like to read more.
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It’s a strawman argument anyway. No one is closing anything because of the risk to young people.
 

FWIW - my sister is a HS School Superintendent. In my job, I talk to Superintendents and Principals on a regular basis. I have a fairly strong understanding of how public education works.

I am telling you that these people are risk-averse. Even if no kids get seriously ill, no Supt or school board wants to see headlines about how many HS kids or teachers are testing positive for covid.

again, my best-case scenario is that MN schools open the fall with half the kids in class and half doing distance learning. as far as sports, I think CC and VB will likely be played. CC is classified as a "low-risk" sport by the MN Dept of Health. VB is a "medium-risk" sport.

Football is classified as a "high-risk" sport. in order for there to be HS FB this fall, the virus numbers are going to have to drop way below current levels - and that decision is going to be made in 3 weeks.

if I had to bet my own money today, I would bet that we will NOT be playing HS FB in MN this fall.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
FWIW - my sister is a HS School Superintendent. In my job, I talk to Superintendents and Principals on a regular basis. I have a fairly strong understanding of how public education works.

I am telling you that these people are risk-averse. Even if no kids get seriously ill, no Supt or school board wants to see headlines about how many HS kids or teachers are testing positive for covid.

again, my best-case scenario is that MN schools open the fall with half the kids in class and half doing distance learning. as far as sports, I think CC and VB will likely be played. CC is classified as a "low-risk" sport by the MN Dept of Health. VB is a "medium-risk" sport.

Football is classified as a "high-risk" sport. in order for there to be HS FB this fall, the virus numbers are going to have to drop way below current levels - and that decision is going to be made in 3 weeks.

if I had to bet my own money today, I would bet that we will NOT be playing HS FB in MN this fall.
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But which numbers?? The numbers for the country, or just the numbers for the state??

Minn’s numbers look much better than the country’s numbers. **knock on wood**
 

Some guy said:
The results aren’t over? Are they? How is current death rate this week?
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To this point the results have not been close to the same. Sweden has been significantly worse than those other countries.
 

GophersInIowa said:
To this point the results have not been close to the same. Sweden has been significantly worse than those other countries.
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I’d agree with that. Hadn’t looked at the numbers in a couple of weeks. It will be interesting to look at things in another couple of weeks.

for instance it is interesting to look at case rates and death rates in New York right now
 

MplsGopher said:
But which numbers?? The numbers for the country, or just the numbers for the state??

Minn’s numbers look much better than the country’s numbers. **knock on wood**
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The MN Dept of Health stated recently its new goal is to get the number of positive cases down to a level that equates to about 280 positive tests a day. for comparison, the last four days have had positive cases of 519, 434, 569 and 463. so as of right now, MN is not at the level they want to reach.

obviously, a decision about having school and fall sports in MN will be based on the numbers in MN.
 

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