Question on BT teams making NCAA tourney

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brucekaupa

brucekaupa

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When is the last time that two Big Ten teams made the NCAA, and the team that *didn't* make it had a better conference record than the team that *did* make it?
 

You're referring to Iowa and Minnesota, of course. I was wondering the same thing.

I do remember once when the Gophs and Purdue finished with equal BT records, and Purdue went, and we stayed home.
 

Yup. I remember that.

But I cannot recall a time when a team with a worse conference record was picked over a team with a better conference record.

Here's what I do every time the Gopher is on the bubble. As they are announcing the seeds half-region by half-region, keep track on how many half-regions do NOT include a Big Ten team.

So, start assuming 8 Big Ten teams go. When they announce the first 8 teams, if one of them isn't a Big Ten team, then it's down to 7, and so on. (This of course is based on the fact that I've never seen a conference with 8 teams or less have a chance of teams meeting before the Elite 8).
 

I think a couple years ago we went at 9-9, and Penn State did not at 10-8.
 

WilliamsArenaGuy said:
I think a couple years ago we went at 9-9, and Penn State did not at 10-8.
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Good catch.

2008-2009

Penn State was 10-8 in the Big Ten and 22-11 overall.
Minnesota was 9-9 in the Big Ten and 22-10 overall.

Penn State won the NIT. Minnesota went out in 1st round of NCAA.
 


But how about 2 teams jumping over Iowa? <Not complaining - that's the way it should be, IMO.> I don't know if that has happened - unless it was to a team that was ineligible for the dance.
 

Iowa's not getting in ahead of MN unless they win the BTT. Not happening.
 

howeda7 said:
Iowa's not getting in ahead of MN unless they win the BTT. Not happening.
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Looking at Minnesota's B1G record, we land below both Iowa and Purdue in the standings. Both IA and Purdue are playing better basketball at the end of the season. Minnesota is tanking it. If the Gophers lose their 1st game in the tourney then I think the NCAA Tourney committee can make a good case for leaving the Gophers off the list. Folks can push the RPI, but the Gophers are sinking their own ship and the tourney committee would not be wrong to send the Gophers to the NIT based upon the end of the season play and the fact that MN ended up worse than both Purdue and Iowa in the B1G standings. Iowa could get in before MN if they win their first game in the B1G tourney.
 

howeda7 said:
Iowa's not getting in ahead of MN unless they win the BTT. Not happening.
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Nor should they, unless the Hawkeyes win the BTT (longshot if they lose in championship), but realistically, Iowa is hosting first round NIT game - so I agree with howeda7. I was just wondering if anyone remembers 2 teams (Minnesota & Illinois in this case) getting invited over a team with better conference record. I do remember Penn State getting jumped by the Gophers, but not a scenario like this.
 



Just looking back...

When the Gophers jumped Penn State:
- Minnesota's RPI was 42
- Penn State's RPI was 70

Currently this year:
- Minnesota's RPI is 20 (pre-Purdue loss)
- Illinois' RPI is 36
- Iowa's RPI is 75 (pre-Nebraska win)

Our prospects of winning a game in the BTT first round are dim.
Iowa's and Illinois' prospects are looking good.

So, here's what we're probably looking at after the BTT:

#6 in conference: Iowa. 9-9 in Big Ten and 21-12 overall. No real significant wins. No real bad losses.
#7 in conference: Illinois. 8-10 in Big Ten and 22-12 overall. Many significant wins. A few bad losses.
#8 in conference: Purdue. 8-10 in Big Ten and 16-17 overall. Who cares?
#9 in conference: Minnesota. 8-10 in Big Ten and 20-12 overall. A few significant wins. Many terrible losses.
 

brucekaupa said:
Just looking back...

When the Gophers jumped Penn State:
- Minnesota's RPI was 42
- Penn State's RPI was 70

Currently this year:
- Minnesota's RPI is 20 (pre-Purdue loss)
- Illinois' RPI is 36
- Iowa's RPI is 75 (pre-Nebraska win)

Our prospects of winning a game in the BTT first round are dim.
Iowa's and Illinois' prospects are looking good.

So, here's what we're probably looking at after the BTT:

#6 in conference: Iowa. 9-9 in Big Ten and 21-12 overall. No real significant wins. No real bad losses.
#7 in conference: Illinois. 8-10 in Big Ten and 22-12 overall. Many significant wins. A few bad losses.
#8 in conference: Purdue. 8-10 in Big Ten and 16-17 overall. Who cares?
#9 in conference: Minnesota. 8-10 in Big Ten and 20-12 overall. A few significant wins. Many terrible losses.
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What do you consider to be a terrible loss? Iowa lost to Nebraska and Purdue on the road too.
 

In my book, Iowa's only really "bad" loss was @ Michigan by 28.
Our bad losses were hosting Illinois and the huge road losses to Iowa, Ohio State and Purdue.

I see the selection committee really analyzing stuff like this when deciding whether to take Minnesota, Iowa or both.

Iowa's Big 10 losses:
- v. Indiana by 4
- @ Michigan by 28
- v. Michigan State by 3
- @ Ohio State by 9
- @ Purdue by 3 in OT
- @ Minnesota by 3
- @ Wisconsin by 4 in 2OT
- @ Nebraska by 4
- @ Indiana by 13
9 losses, with 2 of them in overtime.

Minnesota's Big 10 losses:
- @ Indiana by 7
- v. Michigan by 8
- @ Northwestern by 7
- @ Wisconsin by 1
- @ Michigan State by 11
- v. Illinois by 4
- @ Iowa by 19
- @ Ohio State by 26
- @ Nebraska by 2
- @ Purdue by 16

Just compare the margins. And then take into consideration that 2 of Iowa's were OT losses.
Let's take out the common losses...

Iowa's Big 10 losses:
- v. Indiana by 4
- @ Michigan by 28
- @ Minnesota by 3
At home to a former #1, on the road to a former #1 and on the road to a former #8.

Minnesota's Big 10 losses:
- v. Michigan by 8
- @ Northwestern by 7
- v. Illinois by 4
- @ Iowa by 19
At home to a former #1, on the road to a crappy team, at home to a former #9ish and on the road to a never ranked team.
 

brucekaupa said:
In my book, Iowa's only really "bad" loss was @ Michigan by 28.
Our bad losses were hosting Illinois and the huge road losses to Iowa, Ohio State and Purdue.

I see the selection committee really analyzing stuff like this when deciding whether to take Minnesota, Iowa or both.

Iowa's Big 10 losses:
- v. Indiana by 4
- @ Michigan by 28
- v. Michigan State by 3
- @ Ohio State by 9
- @ Purdue by 3 in OT
- @ Minnesota by 3
- @ Wisconsin by 4 in 2OT
- @ Nebraska by 4
- @ Indiana by 13
9 losses, with 2 of them in overtime.

Minnesota's Big 10 losses:
- @ Indiana by 7
- v. Michigan by 8
- @ Northwestern by 7
- @ Wisconsin by 1
- @ Michigan State by 11
- v. Illinois by 4
- @ Iowa by 19
- @ Ohio State by 26
- @ Nebraska by 2
- @ Purdue by 16

Just compare the margins. And then take into consideration that 2 of Iowa's were OT losses.
Let's take out the common losses...

Iowa's Big 10 losses:
- v. Indiana by 4
- @ Michigan by 28
- @ Minnesota by 3
At home to a former #1, on the road to a former #1 and on the road to a former #8.

Minnesota's Big 10 losses:
- v. Michigan by 8
- @ Northwestern by 7
- v. Illinois by 4
- @ Iowa by 19
At home to a former #1, on the road to a crappy team, at home to a former #9ish and on the road to a never ranked team.
Click to expand...

We're in ahead of Iowa no matter what in my opinion. I also don't think the committe takes into consideration margin of victory when considering teams.
 



tinyarch said:
Looking at Minnesota's B1G record, we land below both Iowa and Purdue in the standings. Both IA and Purdue are playing better basketball at the end of the season. Minnesota is tanking it. If the Gophers lose their 1st game in the tourney then I think the NCAA Tourney committee can make a good case for leaving the Gophers off the list. Folks can push the RPI, but the Gophers are sinking their own ship and the tourney committee would not be wrong to send the Gophers to the NIT based upon the end of the season play and the fact that MN ended up worse than both Purdue and Iowa in the B1G standings. Iowa could get in before MN if they win their first game in the B1G tourney.
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The RPI isn't everything. But they don't leave out the #25 team in the RPI to let in #75. Just doesn't happen. Period. Iowa's non-conference SOS was awful. If the Gophers get left out, it will be one of the best RPI's a BCS team has ever had that didn't make it. It could happen. But it won't be Iowa that takes their spot.
 

At this point I can accept the committee bringing us in because of our RPI. I also can accept the committee sending us away because we are simply tanking it at the end of the season and have a poor B1G season record. In either case we are at the mercy of the selection committee, which is not what anyone wanted at the start of this season.
 

An major conference team with an RPI 1 - 30 has never missed the tournament.
 

Face The Facts said:
An major conference team with an RPI 1 - 30 has never missed the tournament.
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If the Goofers don't beat Purdue in the BTT, you can watch a new first. The highest tm not to make the tourney. Anyone watching this team over last two months will confirm that the RPI is messed up. In a 5 mo season, the last two are WAY more important! They don't belong. Here's hoping we lose, cuz then Tubby will have to resign!
 

principalguy said:
If the Goofers don't beat Purdue in the BTT, you can watch a new first. The highest tm not to make the tourney. Anyone watching this team over last two months will confirm that the RPI is messed up. In a 5 mo season, the last two are WAY more important! They don't belong. Here's hoping we lose, cuz then Tubby will have to resign!
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Dumb.
 

principalguy said:
If the Goofers don't beat Purdue in the BTT, you can watch a new first. The highest tm not to make the tourney. Anyone watching this team over last two months will confirm that the RPI is messed up. In a 5 mo season, the last two are WAY more important! They don't belong. Here's hoping we lose, cuz then Tubby will have to resign!
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Stupid
 

Oh come on, people. Are you really serious?


Some of your people are just plain, well, I don't know, not very smart? Too lazy to turn on your smart brains? Having too much fun riling people like me up? Just not researched enough about all of this???



The NCAA Selection Committee GAVE UP using team's records in their last 10 games. They don't care!!!!!!

Ever growing larger conferences have uneven scedules, and teams can't be held responsible for playing easy or really tough scedules down the stretch. And its bad for business, they want the focus to be on a team's ENTIRE season. Games in November have EQUAL VALUE to games in February. Better way for the NCAA to make more money off of college basketball.


The NCAA Selection Committee does NOT look at margins of victory. They DO NOT CARE!!!!!!!!!!!!

They care whether a team can win or not. That's all.



The NCAA Selection Committee does NOT care what conf a team is in, or where in that conf they finish!!!!!!!!!!

THEY DO NOT CARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Washington WON THE PAC-12 last year. The Committee sent them to the NIT.

but 2 other Pac-12 teams DID get bids.


THERE is your example of TWO lower finishing teams in a conf passing up a team.



The NCAA cares a great deal if a team can win games away from home.


Minnesota has THREE true ROAD WINS vs Top 100 teams.

There are several LOCKS for the NCAA tourney that have NONE.



The NCAA cares about wins vs Top 25, Top 50 and Top 100 teams.


Minnesota has THREE Top 25 wins, FIVE Top 50 wins and close to a dozen Top 100 wins.


The average Bubble team has maybe 1 Top 25 win, 2 and maybe 3 Top 50 wins, and around 5 or 6 Top 100 wins.



We only have THREE bad losses all ROAD games and Nebraska is #102, so they could move up, and Purdue is moving up strong and could end up a Top 100 team as well, dropping us down to 1 or 2 bad losses only.


Many bubble teams have 5, 6 or 7 bad losses.




The NCAA Selection Committee does not like the RPI all that much, BUT, it is a tool, just one of many and one that has been established over time, and the more "legit" tools they have, the more they can manipulate the outcome to their liking.

Keeping Minnesota out, despite their incredible RPI, would be essentially telling the world that the RPI is meaningless, and hence, giving up one of their precious tools.


Minnesota is one of the Top 15 Media markets in the nation, and YES, that is a factor, if you don't think it is, then you are NAIVE.



Iowa played one of the WEAKEST OOC SCEDULES EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The NCAA Selection Committee is far more inclined to want to send a message to the schools out there, SCEDULE TOUGHER OOC GAMES, or you'll get snubbed on Selection Sunday.


And sorry to say this, but snubbing Minnesota would be sending the EXACT OPPOSITE message that they want to send.





So to all you MORONS out there who have NO FRIGGIN CLUE, just stop embarrassing yourselves and shut the hell up and just watch the games and try to enjoy. Minnesota is SO FRIGGING IN, its not even funny.

The NCAA would add an additional play in game before they kept Minnesota out.



Our #2 SOS along with our winning some of those big games, GAURANTEE us an invite to the Big Dance.


No matter how badly we lose our BTT 1st round game. They'll get us in simply on Principle, if for not other reason.
 

Debat, any valid comments get lost in the MIX between BIG letters and small ONES! :rolleyes:

The Gophers may make it into the dance because of their RPI. That doesn't mean they are playing well enough to deserve the invitation. If they make the cut, great. If they are not invited, I can't blame the selection committee. That's all I'm saying.
 


brucekaupa said:
In my book, Iowa's only really "bad" loss was @ Michigan by 28.
Our bad losses were hosting Illinois and the huge road losses to Iowa, Ohio State and Purdue.
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I think you are looking at "bad loss" differently than the committee will for the most part. We lost badly to Iowa but it was not a bad loss in the sense of losing to a bad team. Margin of victory/defeat will probably play into a little but who you beat and lost to will be the main factor. Our bad losses are to NW, Nebraska, and Purdue. Iowa's is to Nebraska, Purdue, and Virginia Tech. Then also looking at their best win, they have only one over a current top 25 team in Wisconsin. That's just as big of a factor as the losses.

But if you are going to look at it from a margin of victory/defeated perspective, then the fact that they only beat Penn St. by 2 and we beat them by almost 30 has to be factored in as well.
 

The Gophers may make it into the dance because of their RPI. That doesn't mean they are playing well enough to deserve the invitation.
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tinyarch --


Then who does?! lol, honestly? It's a very serious question.



SIXTY-EIGHT teams get to dance. Do you even pay attention to teams outside of the Big Ten?!



Just from yesterday, I jotted some significant games down


Colorado LOST to a pretty crappy Oregon St team.
Oregon LOST to a pretty crappy Utah team.
NCSU lost to the same Flor St team that we beat IN FSU.
Missouri lost their 8th road game in a row to a team ranked better than 200 in the RPI.
New Mexico LOST to a pretty crappy Air Force team.
Kansas LOST to an otherwise downwardly spiraling Baylor team.
Oklahoma LOST to TCU.

YEAH, TCU.


And Syracuse lost by 21 or 28 pts???


Cincy should have lost to SFU AT HOME, but SFU blew their chance to get the last shot in regulation.



I keep track of 50% of the games played in cbb, every single day. There is nothing that the Gophers are doing or suffering through that is any different than dozens of other teams probably heading to or hoping to be heading to the NCAA tourney.


Which is amazing seeing as we have the WORST coach in the Big Ten leading this team.

And that list is just FROM ONE SINGLE DAY!!!!!!!! And those were only the ones I cared about enough to jot down.
 

We are 9th in the B1G. We are worse than Iowa and Purdue with only Northwestern, Nebraska and Penn State being worse than us...and we lost to Northwestern and Nebraska. Tell me that this is a great selling point to the selection committee. We've had a disastrous February, other than the win at home against Indiana. When was the last time that a 9th place team in the B1G was offered a spot in the dance, especially if the team loses their first game in the B1G tourney?

I'm just saying that I would not hold it against the selection committee if they told the Gophers to go enjoy an NIT run. If we do get in, however, I would expect us to get no higher than a 12 seed.
 

tinyarch said:
We are 9th in the B1G. We are worse than Iowa and Purdue with only Northwestern, Nebraska and Penn State being worse than us...and we lost to Northwestern and Nebraska. Tell me that this is a great selling point to the selection committee. We've had a disastrous February, other than the win at home against Indiana. When was the last time that a 9th place team in the B1G was offered a spot in the dance, especially if the team loses their first game in the B1G tourney?

I'm just saying that I would not hold it against the selection committee if they told the Gophers to go enjoy an NIT run. If we do get in, however, I would expect us to get no higher than a 12 seed.
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We are not 'worse than Iowa or Purdue'. Conference record is not the biggest criteria. Would you feel that much better if we'd lost to Stanford and FSU and beaten Northwestern and Nebraska for the magical 10-8 B1G record? We'd be 'better than Iowa and Purdue'. All the games count, including the 40% of the season that's not the B1G. And we were 4-6 last 10. Not good. Not an epic collapse though.

We know this much: The people who think the least of the Gophers' NCAA resume are their own fans.
 

Short version - Tinyarch - NCAA SC does not care about what place anyone finished in their conf.







Long version -

That's what you don't seem to be able to get through your thick skull tinyarch, the Selection Committee DOES NOT CARE what place we finished in the Big Ten.


Example. Washington WON the Pac-12 conf title last season. Where did they end up?! In the NIT.


But 2 other Pac-12 teams DID make it into the Dance. But how is that possible?!


Because of what they did in the OOC part of their season.


I will say it again, the Committee does not care what place we finished in the Big Ten.



Have you even compared the Gopher's resume with ANY other team outside of the Big Ten this year?????



I did. I've kept a running comparison going with Missouri, Cincy and Arizona. That's a B12, BE and P12 team.

And Minnesota compared VERY favorably vs all 3 right up until we lost to Purdue, actually, but Missouri lost to Tennessee and Cincy BARELY beat a horrible SFU team at home, so neither team moved ahead of them. Arizona got a win, and so now looks better, but they've also been ranked Top Ten all season basically.


But Missouri plays in a creampuff conf and so somehow looks better in some people's opinions, and Cincinnati? They were almost a bubble team, and still are living on the edge.


Why did I pick those 3 teams? All 4 teams, the Gophers and those 3 teams were all ranked Top Ten early on, and I know fans from those 3 other teams pretty well, that's why. Those fans have been trying to show their team better than the Gophers all season long and have not been able to do it.


And they are just teams indicative of what's going on all around college basketball this season. PARITY GALORE, upsets in record #s every week. Teams talking #1 seeds right now went through 3 game losing streaks. Kentucky and UNC were supposed to be bound for the NIT and now both are considered in and VERY in. But its because of the weakness of their opponents that they were able to win enough games to move back into NCAA tourney consideration.
 


First of all, don't look at the last 10 to 12 games, the ncaa doesn't take the last 10 to 12 games into account.

School’s results in its final 10-12 games aren’t any more important than the scores from its first 10-12 games.

It the overall body of work that the NCAA look at.
 

First of all, don't look at the last 10 to 12 games, the ncaa doesn't take the last 10 to 12 games into account.

School’s results in its final 10-12 games aren’t any more important than the scores from its first 10-12 games.

It the overall body of work that the NCAA look at.
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Right on Gophersfan!!!


The NCAA has been very clear about this. They have had a very distinct change of philosophy concerning this issue, and have been emphatic about this issue. They feel its gotten so that all of the focus has been put on March Madness, and they want to change that.


So teams like Iowa and Minnesota represent polar opposites, UMn on one hand has a STELLAR ooc schedule and record. Iowa on the otherhand has a PUTRID and pathetically weak ooc schedule, and my guess is that alone could sink ANY hopes they have of dancing. Putting Minnesota in and keeping Iowa out, could even be pointed out by them as an example of how they reward teams who schedule tough ooc scedules, vs how they snub teams who schedule weak creampuff ooc scedules.
 

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