Post-Week 10 Field of 12 Projection: 4 Unbeatens, 2-Loss Alabama & "Last Team In" SMU Highlight the Field

[SelectionSunday]

Automatic qualifiers/conference leaders are determined by "best conference record", hence 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc. If tied, I first determine auto qualifier using head to head (if applicable), then if no head to head, by most deserving.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through November 2) -- * denotes automatic qualifier
ACC (2): *Miami (9-0, 5-0), SMU (8-1, 5-0)

Big Ten (4): *Oregon (9-0, 6-0), Ohio State (7-1, 4-1), Indiana (9-0, 6-0), Penn State (7-1, 4-1)

Big XII (1): *BYU (8-0, 5-0)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (7-1, 4-0)

SEC (4): *Georgia (7-1, 5-1), Texas (7-1, 3-1), Tennessee (7-1, 4-1), Alabama (6-2, 3-2)

Last 2 At-Large: #11 Penn State, #12 SMU

First 4 Out (alphabetical): LSU (6-2, 3-1), Notre Dame (7-1), Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2), Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1)

Other Conference Leaders Under Consideration (4): Army (8-0, 6-0/American), Western Kentucky (6-2, 4-0/Conference USA), Western Michigan (5-3, 4-0/MAC), Louisiana (7-1, 4-0)/Sun Belt)

Movin' In (3): Alabama, Miami, SMU

Movin' Out (3): Clemson, Pitt, Texas A&M

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)
#9 Tennessee @ #8 Indiana
#12 SMU @ #5 Ohio State

#10 Alabama @ #7 *Miami
#11 Penn State @ #6 Texas

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Indiana/#9 Tennessee winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Boise State vs. #5 Ohio State/#12 SMU winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

#2 *Georgia vs. #7 *Miami/#10 Alabama winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *BYU vs. #6 Texas/#11 Penn State winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) -- Atlanta, GA

Opponents Winning Percentage of Teams in the Field and First 4 Out (with best win)
1 Alabama (.701) -- Georgia
2 Ohio State (.623) -- @ Penn State
3 Boise State (.582) -- Washington State
4 Texas A&M (.579) -- LSU
5 Texas (.571) -- @ Vanderbilt
6 Oregon (.566) -- Ohio State
7 LSU (.557) -- Ole Miss
8 Georgia (.515) -- @ Texas
Notre Dame (.515) -- @ Texas A&M
10 SMU (.513) -- @ Louisville
11 Ole Miss (.506) -- @ South Carolina
12 Miami (.500) -- @ Louisville
13 Penn State (.493) -- Illinois
14 Tennessee (.478) -- Alabama
15 BYU (.472) -- @ SMU
16 Indiana (.430) -- Washington

If you're wondering, unbeaten Army's opponents are a combined 22-44 for a .333 winning percentage. The Cadets have one win over a team with a winning record, FCS' Lehigh (5-3).

Power 5 Head to Head Standings (through Nov. 2) -- Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included

1. Notre Dame (5-0)
2. Washington State (2-0)
3. SEC (10-6)
4. ACC (9-12)
5. Big Ten (7-10)
6. Big XII (7-11)
7. Oregon State (1-2)

Week 11 Key Games
Maryland @ #1 Oregon
#2 Georgia @ Ole Miss
#3 BYU @ Utah
Nevada @ #4 Boise State
Purdue @ #5 Ohio State
Florida @ #6 Texas
#7 Miami @ Georgia Tech
Michigan @ #8 Indiana
Mississippi State @ #9 Tennessee
#10 Alabama @ LSU
Washington @ #11 Penn State
Army @ North Texas

Week 11 Power 5 Head to Head
Florida State @ Notre Dame

 

[HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving]

Thanks Selection.

Lane Kiffin adds a lot on the media side. I hope they make it.

 

[fmlizard]

Penn State's not getting in. Gonna need to find someone else.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Penn State's not getting in. Gonna need to find someone else.

Penn State likely will be on the outside looking in if they lose another game. Still like their chances if they win out.

 

[fmlizard]

Penn State likely will be on the outside looking in if they lose another game. Still like their chances if they win out.

I'm saying I don't like their chances to win out

 

[SelectionSunday]

I'm saying I don't like their chances to win out

Gophers definitely good enough to play spoiler.