Post-Week 10 Field of 12 Projection: 4 Unbeatens, 2-Loss Alabama & "Last Team In" SMU Highlight the Field

SelectionSunday

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Automatic qualifiers/conference leaders are determined by "best conference record", hence 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc. If tied, I first determine auto qualifier using head to head (if applicable), then if no head to head, by most deserving.

FIELD Of 12 PROJECTION (through November 2) -- * denotes automatic qualifier
ACC (2): *Miami (9-0, 5-0), SMU (8-1, 5-0)

Big Ten (4): *Oregon (9-0, 6-0), Ohio State (7-1, 4-1), Indiana (9-0, 6-0), Penn State (7-1, 4-1)

Big XII (1): *BYU (8-0, 5-0)

Mountain West (1): *Boise State (7-1, 4-0)

SEC (4): *Georgia (7-1, 5-1), Texas (7-1, 3-1), Tennessee (7-1, 4-1), Alabama (6-2, 3-2)

Last 2 At-Large: #11 Penn State, #12 SMU

First 4 Out (alphabetical): LSU (6-2, 3-1), Notre Dame (7-1), Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2), Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1)

Other Conference Leaders Under Consideration (4):
Army (8-0, 6-0/American), Western Kentucky (6-2, 4-0/Conference USA), Western Michigan (5-3, 4-0/MAC), Louisiana (7-1, 4-0)/Sun Belt)

Movin' In (3): Alabama, Miami, SMU

Movin' Out (3): Clemson, Pitt, Texas A&M

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
First Round (Dec. 20 & 21)

#9 Tennessee @ #8 Indiana
#12 SMU @ #5 Ohio State

#10 Alabama @ #7 *Miami
#11 Penn State @ #6 Texas

Quarterfinals
#1 *Oregon vs. #8 Indiana/#9 Tennessee winner (Rose Bowl/Jan. 1)
#4 *Boise State vs. #5 Ohio State/#12 SMU winner (Peach Bowl/Jan. 1)

#2 *Georgia vs. #7 *Miami/#10 Alabama winner (Sugar Bowl/Jan. 1)
#3 *BYU vs. #6 Texas/#11 Penn State winner (Fiesta Bowl/Dec. 31)

Semifinals
Orange Bowl (Jan. 9)
Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10)

National Championship (Jan. 20) -- Atlanta, GA

Opponents Winning Percentage of Teams in the Field and First 4 Out
(with best win)
1 Alabama (.701) -- Georgia
2 Ohio State (.623) -- @ Penn State
3 Boise State (.582) -- Washington State
4 Texas A&M (.579) -- LSU
5 Texas (.571) -- @ Vanderbilt
6 Oregon (.566) -- Ohio State
7 LSU (.557) -- Ole Miss
8 Georgia (.515) -- @ Texas
Notre Dame (.515) -- @ Texas A&M
10 SMU (.513) -- @ Louisville
11 Ole Miss (.506) -- @ South Carolina
12 Miami (.500) -- @ Louisville
13 Penn State (.493) -- Illinois
14 Tennessee (.478) -- Alabama
15 BYU (.472) -- @ SMU
16 Indiana (.430) -- Washington

If you're wondering, unbeaten Army's opponents are a combined 22-44 for a .333 winning percentage. The Cadets have one win over a team with a winning record, FCS' Lehigh (5-3).

Power 5 Head to Head Standings (through Nov. 2) -- Notre Dame (Independent), Oregon State (Pac 12), and Washington State (Pac 12) included

1. Notre Dame (5-0)
2. Washington State (2-0)
3. SEC (10-6)
4. ACC (9-12)
5. Big Ten (7-10)
6. Big XII (7-11)
7. Oregon State (1-2)

Week 11 Key Games
Maryland @ #1 Oregon
#2 Georgia @ Ole Miss
#3 BYU @ Utah
Nevada @ #4 Boise State
Purdue @ #5 Ohio State
Florida @ #6 Texas
#7 Miami @ Georgia Tech
Michigan @ #8 Indiana
Mississippi State @ #9 Tennessee
#10 Alabama @ LSU
Washington @ #11 Penn State
Army @ North Texas

Week 11 Power 5 Head to Head
Florida State @ Notre Dame
 










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