PJ Fleck compares Gophers' 'line of success' to the stock market

[Some guy]

Then you agree they should have brought big pressure and disrupted his timing and forced him to run, throw a quicker short pass, run it himself, or eat a sack.

On 4th down or on the touchdown?
I can’t remember the 4th down play so I can’t say.
On the touchdown I disagree. They hit the QB, they had everyone covered if Nubin does his job.

 

[Dakota2]

Are you yourself arguing "from a set perspective"? There's a chance you might be projecting a bit on that.

On the contrary my perspective is never set in sports. Too many things change to do that.

I started out this season thinking our personnel was decent and might improve during the season to at minimum compete
as we have done most of the last few years. I was very high on AK based on how he came off the bench and played second half of last season. He was confident and effective.

I was happy with Fleck but with reservations about his timidity on the offensive side. I thought he would seek to return to the balanced and moderately aggressive—at least somewhat difficult to defend— style of KC.

AK and Fleck both regressed. I imagine there is a connection there. Even Rossi let the team down in several games.

 

[Dakota2]

On 4th down or on the touchdown?
I can’t remember the 4th down play so I can’t say.
On the touchdown I disagree. They hit the QB, they had everyone covered if Nubin does his job.

The 4th and 11 was from near their own goal. Their QB went was knocked out of the game on third down. The backup hadn’t played and had no time to warm up. He had to make 11 yards on one snap or the game was over.

In that scenario the worst strategy is to let him sit comfortably in the pocket with plenty of time to let Williams work and find a soft spot 12 yards down the field.

He gets credit for delivering a strike cold. But he would not have had the time against any other coaching staff.

 

[Dakota2]

On 4th down or on the touchdown?
I can’t remember the 4th down play so I can’t say.
On the touchdown I disagree. They hit the QB, they had everyone covered if Nubin does his job.

Not sure who hit the quarterback but the point is he had several seconds to wait for Williams to get deep down the field. No pressure.

 

[Some guy]

Not sure who hit the quarterback but the point is he had several seconds to wait for Williams to get deep down the field. No pressure.

He was hit as he threw. Agree to disagree

 

[Dakota2]

He was hit as he threw. Agree to disagree

We’re not talking about the same thing. The issue is he should not have been allowed enough time for Williams to run that deep.

Yes, it’s usually possible to hit the Quarterback after he has been standing there several seconds.

 

[Dakota2]

He was hit as he threw. Agree to disagree

Ok, we can disagree. I respect your take. You don’t need to answer but my question to anyone is: is there no possible better strategy than the one that allowed Illinois to go from 4th and 11 from inside their 10 to a game winning score in three plays? Nothing at all?

 

[Some guy]

Ok, we can disagree. I respect your take. You don’t need to answer but my question to anyone is: is there no possible better strategy than the one that allowed Illinois to go from 4th and 11 from inside their 10 to a game winning score in three plays? Nothing at all?

There are multiple good strategies
All the strategies include players executing what you call

 

[MNVCGUY]

Ok, we can disagree. I respect your take. You don’t need to answer but my question to anyone is: is there no possible better strategy than the one that allowed Illinois to go from 4th and 11 from inside their 10 to a game winning score in three plays? Nothing at all?

You need to go rewatch that sequence because you are not remembering what actually happened and you are not giving Paddock enough credit for his role in it. I did and here is what I saw.

4th and 11 - Ball is out in 3 seconds, he shifts in the pocket to avoid rush and delivers a strike to Williams in a tight window with 4 defenders in the area.

Next play he roles out to the right and hits the TE for a 17 yard game

Final play - the ball is out in 3 seconds, he has a defender baring down on him and he makes a great throw. Secondary clearly screwed up and Nubin allowed the one thing to happen that I guarantee the coahes told him he could not let happen during the timeout and that was to let Williams get behind the D.

Obviously in hindsight the coaches would try something different but you are acting like Paddock was just sitting in the pocket waiting for receivers to come open and that simply was not the case. On that 4th down play one of the 4 defenders in the area has to make a play....none of them did.

 

[Gopherchase]

You need to go rewatch that sequence because you are not remembering what actually happened and you are not giving Paddock enough credit for his role in it. I did and here is what I saw.

4th and 11 - Ball is out in 3 seconds, he shifts in the pocket to avoid rush and delivers a strike to Williams in a tight window with 4 defenders in the area.

Next play he roles out to the right and hits the TE for a 17 yard game

Final play - the ball is out in 3 seconds, he has a defender baring down on him and he makes a great throw. Secondary clearly screwed up and Nubin allowed the one thing to happen that I guarantee the coahes told him he could not let happen during the timeout and that was to let Williams get behind the D.

Obviously in hindsight the coaches would try something different but you are acting like Paddock was just sitting in the pocket waiting for receivers to come open and that simply was not the case. On that 4th down play one of the 4 defenders in the area has to make a play....none of them did.

Don’t have a dog in this fight but I would say that the 3 rush play coverage has been way less effective this year and has cost us a game, or two. I would have hoped Rossi would shelve it but he hasn’t. In prior years there was some good success with it but not in ‘23.

 

[Some guy]

You need to go rewatch that sequence because you are not remembering what actually happened and you are not giving Paddock enough credit for his role in it. I did and here is what I saw.

4th and 11 - Ball is out in 3 seconds, he shifts in the pocket to avoid rush and delivers a strike to Williams in a tight window with 4 defenders in the area.

Next play he roles out to the right and hits the TE for a 17 yard game

Final play - the ball is out in 3 seconds, he has a defender baring down on him and he makes a great throw. Secondary clearly screwed up and Nubin allowed the one thing to happen that I guarantee the coahes told him he could not let happen during the timeout and that was to let Williams get behind the D.

Obviously in hindsight the coaches would try something different but you are acting like Paddock was just sitting in the pocket waiting for receivers to come open and that simply was not the case. On that 4th down play one of the 4 defenders in the area has to make a play....none of them did.

Correct. You could blitz more but if ball is out on time the blitz doesn’t matter

 

[Dakota2]

You need to go rewatch that sequence because you are not remembering what actually happened and you are not giving Paddock enough credit for his role in it. I did and here is what I saw.

4th and 11 - Ball is out in 3 seconds, he shifts in the pocket to avoid rush and delivers a strike to Williams in a tight window with 4 defenders in the area.

Next play he roles out to the right and hits the TE for a 17 yard game

Final play - the ball is out in 3 seconds, he has a defender baring down on him and he makes a great throw. Secondary clearly screwed up and Nubin allowed the one thing to happen that I guarantee the coahes told him he could not let happen during the timeout and that was to let Williams get behind the D.

Obviously in hindsight the coaches would try something different but you are acting like Paddock was just sitting in the pocket waiting for receivers to come open and that simply was not the case. On that 4th down play one of the 4 defenders in the area has to make a play....none of them did.

You are correct, I am acting like we allowed Paddock too much time. Absolutely.

On the first play, if the ball came out in three seconds that is eternity for Williams to run a 12-yard route. No serious pressure.

I doubt the ball came out in three seconds on the TD. I doubt Williams ran close to 50 yards in time to receive it.

You and apparently many here think it was a good defensive strategy and Nubin blew the TD so nothing else could have been done. I disagree. Not some pressure but maximum all out pressure was called for when a cold backup enters the game in that critical situation.

Try to imagine the situation being reversed with Kaliakmanis faced with 4th and 11 by his goal line. What do you think every Big Ten coaching staff would draw up defensively? Not even a question.

 

[Dakota2]

Correct. You could blitz more but if ball is out on time the blitz doesn’t matter

Are you serious? If you blitz and the ball still gets out "in time" -- meaning the receiver had time to run his planned route -- that obviously means someone picked up the blitz and blocked the blitzer.

With a successful blitz, where you catch the offense with not enough guys to block everyone, the QB will not have the time to get the ball "out in time".

It's why defenses run blitzes and other pressure packages. All designed to disrupt the timing of the offensive play.

 

[Some guy]

Are you serious? If you blitz and the ball still gets out "in time" -- meaning the receiver had time to run his planned route -- that obviously means someone picked up the blitz and blocked the blitzer.

With a successful blitz, where you catch the offense with not enough guys to block everyone, the QB will not have the time to get the ball "out in time".

It's why defenses run blitzes and other pressure packages. All designed to disrupt the timing of the offensive play.

You clearly don’t know much about football. And thus, I’m not longer discussing you other than to say this:

You are correct that a successful blitz would be better than what happened.
You are incorrect if you think blitzing is the only possible smart playcall.

 

[MNVCGUY]

You are correct, I am acting like we allowed Paddock too much time. Absolutely.

On the first play, if the ball came out in three seconds that is eternity for Williams to run a 12-yard route. No serious pressure.

I doubt the ball came out in three seconds on the TD. I doubt Williams ran close to 50 yards in time to receive it.

You and apparently many here think it was a good defensive strategy and Nubin blew the TD so nothing else could have been done. I disagree. Not some pressure but maximum all out pressure was called for when a cold backup enters the game in that critical situation.

Try to imagine the situation being reversed with Kaliakmanis faced with 4th and 11 by his goal line. What do you think every Big Ten coaching staff would draw up defensively? Not even a question.

If you truly believe 3 seconds is an eternity then you are living in a fantasy world. A free blitzer can maybe get there if he is not picked up at all.

Last play. Snap at 57 seconds, throw at 54, catch at 51. So yeah, Williams didn’t go 50 yards in 3 seconds but he did go 46 in about 5-6 seconds which for a guy with his speed is very doable.

There guys made the plays ours didn’t. I am sure if they could do it over the coaches might make some changes but in the end the players have to make the plays.

You are hell bent on putting all the blame on the coaches which is just ridiculous and not how football or pretty much any sport for that matter works.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

You clearly don’t know much about football. And thus, I’m not longer discussing you other than to say this:

You are correct that a successful blitz would be better than what happened.
You are incorrect if you think blitzing is the only possible smart playcall.

OK, under what conditions would be the best time to bring some pressure or extra pressure. Three seconds unmolested is a long time. Stressing the QB into a quick throw or disrupted or off balance throw is risk reward calculation with potential catastrophic downside but the Gophers weren’t playing Tom Brady. Paddock was an average non-running MAC QB at Ball State the prior year. Worst case scenario they beat the blitz, beat the safety deep and they score with MN getting a couple minutes to drive for a FG. Best case scenario the QB self destructs and end of game.

 

[Dakota2]

You clearly don’t know much about football. And thus, I’m not longer discussing you other than to say this:

You are correct that a successful blitz would be better than what happened.
You are incorrect if you think blitzing is the only possible smart playcall.

Hear you loud and clear. If you can’t make a sensible point just say someone clearly doesn’t know much about football. Would be entirely happy if you discuss nothing further with me. Would have been better if you had decided that before making your previous stupid comment.

 

[Dakota2]

If you truly believe 3 seconds is an eternity then you are living in a fantasy world. A free blitzer can maybe get there if he is not picked up at all.

Last play. Snap at 57 seconds, throw at 54, catch at 51. So yeah, Williams didn’t go 50 yards in 3 seconds but he did go 46 in about 5-6 seconds which for a guy with his speed is very doable.

There guys made the plays ours didn’t. I am sure if they could do it over the coaches might make some changes but in the end the players have to make the plays.

You are hell bent on putting all the blame on the coaches which is just ridiculous and not how football or pretty much any sport for that matter works.

Yes, a free blitzer can get there earlier than three seconds and he can force the QB out of his pocket and disrupt the play earlier than that.

You are wrong about my intent saying I place all blame on coaches. We all know Kaliakmanis had two chances to save the win. We all know Nubin could have played the last ball better.

Good coaching would have not put Nubin in that situation. All things equal, meaning time to run the route, time to throw, and an accurate pass, a receiver with Williams speed and skill can beat any safety in the league more times than not. It was dumb to give them that chance.

 

[Dakota2]

If you truly believe 3 seconds is an eternity then you are living in a fantasy world. A free blitzer can maybe get there if he is not picked up at all.

Last play. Snap at 57 seconds, throw at 54, catch at 51. So yeah, Williams didn’t go 50 yards in 3 seconds but he did go 46 in about 5-6 seconds which for a guy with his speed is very doable.

There guys made the plays ours didn’t. I am sure if they could do it over the coaches might make some changes but in the end the players have to make the plays.

You are hell bent on putting all the blame on the coaches which is just ridiculous and not how football or pretty much any sport for that matter works.

And yes, three seconds is plenty of time for short and medium routes. Tom Brady became a billionaire with three seconds.

 

[Dakota2]

OK, under what conditions would be the best time to bring some pressure or extra pressure. Three seconds unmolested is a long time. Stressing the QB into a quick throw or disrupted or off balance throw is risk reward calculation with potential catastrophic downside but the Gophers weren’t playing Tom Brady. Paddock was an average non-running MAC QB at Ball State the prior year. Worst case scenario they beat the blitz, beat the safety deep and they score with MN getting a couple minutes to drive for a FG. Best case scenario the QB self destructs and end of game.

Some guy is going to come on here and tell you that you don’t know much about football.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

Some guy is going to come on here and tell you that you don’t know much about football.

I don’t know much about football. There are endless wrinkles and opinions and tactics. I don’t know what I don’t know. Same with say, plumbing or computer engineering or farming or neurology. I enjoy the nuts and bolts discussions on tactics because I want to be better every day.

I genuinely want to understand the thought process on that play.

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Per Joe:

Being consistently good to great is not the expectation Gophers football fans should have, according to head coach P.J. Fleck, who on Monday – following a 37-3 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State on Saturday – compared the line of success for most college teams to the stock market.

"The line of success...it is a jagged line. It looks like the stock market. And some programs, their jagged line is all the way at the top and it's just a little squiggly, but there aren't deep valleys and there are always high peaks, but there are dips," Fleck said.

"Winning's hard. It's really hard. We've had some really close wins, we've had some really close losses. We've had some unbelievable wins and some heartbreaking losses," Fleck continued. "All of that is teaching these guys lessons, teaching our coaches lessons. Finding ways to be able to do it better and grow and learn from the lessons of why."

https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/gophers/pj-fleck-compares-gophers-line-of-success-to-the-stock-market

Go Gophers!!

Improve your best, Peter John