Pitino's Buyout

[UpAndUnder43]

You are right, Coyle knows the budget better than anyone, but what makes you think he has the money to hire Muss or anyone who would cost that much? To answer your question, the reason we would "settle" is because we don't have the money for somebody more expensive.

You have no idea if they have the money. I don't know either. But if Pitino was making $2.5/yr and Muss wants $3.5/yr, I can see that working. Buyout money comes from a variety of sources. Maybe they can cut Womens Gym and pay it?

Every dollar figure being thrown around is speculation and people are taking it as fast.

 

[GopherPlaya]

I wouldn't necessarily mind Dutcher, but he does kind of have a weird resume. Guy is 61 with 4 years of head coaching experience, while not having left Cali since arriving in '99. At the same time, he has won at Michigan and SDSU as associate head coach, and he's been under Steve Fischer who is a damn good coach. The success the last 4 years is obviously appealing too.

Thank you. Dutcher feels more like a Nostaglia hire. It's not like he took over a dying program. San Diego State has been in the NCAAs or NIT every year from 05-06 to 15-16 with Fisher and with Dutcher as the head coach they have missed the post season twice. I don't understand how he is a better option than Medved or Smith in his same conference

 

[BarnBurner]

You are right, Coyle knows the budget better than anyone, but what makes you think he has the money to hire Muss or anyone who would cost that much? To answer your question, the reason we would "settle" is because we don't have the money for somebody more expensive.

Must find $$. Unless, of course, MN doesn't really want to be competitive.

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

You have no idea if they have the money. I don't know either. But if Pitino was making $2.5/yr and Muss wants $3.5/yr, I can see that working. Buyout money comes from a variety of sources. Maybe they can cut Womens Gym and pay it?

Why do you think they have the money? I am just going by their public statements and recent conduct. They aren't cutting sports or talking about revenue losses of $50-$75M for shits and giggles. They have a money crunch. I agree with you that, if Coyle has a secret money tree and he can just shake it whenever he wants and it produces whatever he needs, then taking Dutcher or somebody similar and foregoing Musselman or the like is settling. But if that's the case, isn't hiring Muss settling, too? I mean we don't know how much money they have, so why didn't they hire Jay Wright?

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

Must find $$. Unless, of course, MN doesn't really want to be competitive.

OK, you're hired as the AD. Where do you get the money?

 

[BarnBurner]

OK, you're hired as the AD. Where do you get the money?

IF you want a SUCCESSFUL mens BB program at MN, you do whatever is necessary to pay the right coach.

If on court success is not desired or required, go the most inexpensive route.

Not that difficult. Other schools do it each and every day.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Why do you think they have the money? I am just going by their public statements and recent conduct. They aren't cutting sports or talking about revenue losses of $50-$75M for shits and giggles. They have a money crunch. I agree with you that, if Coyle has a secret money tree and he can just shake it whenever he wants and it produces whatever he needs, then taking Dutcher or somebody similar and foregoing Musselman or the like is settling. But if that's the case, isn't hiring Muss settling, too? I mean we don't know how much money they have, so why didn't they hire Jay Wright?

I'd love Jay Wright but I don't think money gets him here.

Them money being discuss does matter but the difference is that Coyle and others realize 1) Covid times are not forever times. They probably know what to expect attendance and donation wise more than the average fan
2) A healthy athletic department needs mens basketball to perform at a decent level
3) Public statements aren't always 100% true or accurate or the entire picture. Losing revenue doesn't account for lower expenses. My company had lower revenue in 2020, our profits were up.

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

I'd love Jay Wright but I don't think money gets him here.

Them money being discuss does matter but the difference is that Coyle and others realize 1) Covid times are not forever times. They probably know what to expect attendance and donation wise more than the average fan
2) A healthy athletic department needs mens basketball to perform at a decent level
3) Public statements aren't always 100% true or accurate or the entire picture. Losing revenue doesn't account for lower expenses. My company had lower revenue in 2020, our profits were up.

Everyone knows that COVID won't last forever, smart people realize that doesn't necessarily mean that things will go back to the way things were.

1) They do, and, unfortunately, it looks like it may well be bleak. There is no certainty that revenues will recover in a year or two or ten. There is hope that media revenue will increase, but ticket income and related donations are far less certain to return to prior levels. We are in uncharted territory.

2) Agreed. Unfortunately, there is no assurance that a $4M a year coach will produce better revenue results than a $2M a year coach.

3) We are talking about a department which, in the best of times, barely breaks even. They have saved a small percentage of salary expenses with layoffs, salary cuts and hiring freezes. They are paying less for travel. They are still funding scholarships and housing and feeding athletes, paying trainers and tutors and coaches, etc. The TV and ticket revenue is down. You don't have to see the books to know what things look like in general terms. Don't know what business you are in, but I can assure you that if your revenues were down 35-60% and your profits were up, you were the exception, not the rule.

 

[UpAndUnder43]

Everyone knows that COVID won't last forever, smart people realize that doesn't necessarily mean that things will go back to the way things were.

1) They do, and, unfortunately, it looks like it may well be bleak. There is no certainty that revenues will recover in a year or two or ten. There is hope that media revenue will increase, but ticket income and related donations are far less certain to return to prior levels. We are in uncharted territory.

2) Agreed. Unfortunately, there is no assurance that a $4M a year coach will produce better revenue results than a $2M a year coach.

3) We are talking about a department which, in the best of times, barely breaks even. They have saved a small percentage of salary expenses with layoffs, salary cuts and hiring freezes. They are paying less for travel. They are still funding scholarships and housing and feeding athletes, paying trainers and tutors and coaches, etc. The TV and ticket revenue is down. You don't have to see the books to know what things look like in general terms. Don't know what business you are in, but I can assure you that if your revenues were down 35-60% and your profits were up, you were the exception, not the rule.

I agree with all of this. I'm just saying there is money to spend. They have to hire a coach. Maybe they go cheaper than what Pitino is making but if things are as bleak as you make them seem--saving that $500,000 won't really matter. May as well just shut it all down. No way to recover.

Or...they make so much from BTN that they are just fine but used this to cut some programs to improve the health going forward so they CAN hire a more expensive coach, pay assistants more, etc.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Thank you. Dutcher feels more like a Nostaglia hire. It's not like he took over a dying program. San Diego State has been in the NCAAs or NIT every year from 05-06 to 15-16 with Fisher and with Dutcher as the head coach they have missed the post season twice. I don't understand how he is a better option than Medved or Smith in his same conference

Are you saying last year's team would not have made the post season, had there been one?

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

I agree with all of this. I'm just saying there is money to spend. They have to hire a coach. Maybe they go cheaper than what Pitino is making but if things are as bleak as you make them seem--saving that $500,000 won't really matter. May as well just shut it all down. No way to recover.

I am not trying to be fatalistic, I just believe that Coyle really didn't want to be in this position. I am in the camp that believes that he would have fired Pitino last year but for the pandemic. I think that he hoped that, by kicking the can down the road, we would be in a place now where either Pitino made enough improvement that he could keep him around or the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic would be behind us so that he could hire a new coach without all the revenue uncertainty surrounding the program and the University as a whole. If that was his gamble, he lost. Things with Pitino have deteriorated to the point where I think he has to make a move and he's doing it from a position of relative weakness rather than a position of strength.

I don't think that means that they can't make a good hire or that things are hopeless forever. But I do think that the idea that they should just spend whatever it takes to get the best possible option without regard for their budget is unrealistic. (Not attributing that view to you, but some of the other posts in this and similar threads.)

 

[cjbfbp]

OP said to just hire Dutcher because it costs less. That is settling.

And its also been proposed Muss wants to be here. No one knows what will transpire.

Well, yes, and the universe of potentials isn't limited to two coaches. I also can understand the preference for a mature established coach with demonstrated track record of success. I usually felt that way myself during the Pitino era. However, one can get caught up too much in one idea due to a knee-jerk reaction to a prior failure. Hiring a relatively young and less experienced head coach definitely did not work out in Pitino's case but that doesn't mean it can't work out. Here's are some situations where it did work out:

Iowa hired 40 year old Lute Olson with one year of head coaching experience at Long Beach State

Duke hired 33 year old Coach K after a so-so five year stint at Army

Kansas State Hired 34 year old Lon Kruger after a so-so four year stint at Texas Rio Grande Valley

Butler elevated 31 year old assistant coach Brad Stevens to the head coaching position

Seton Hall hired 33 year old PJ Carlesimo after a fairly undistinguished 6 year stint at Wagner (took him 6 years to turn around Seton Hall though - not sure fans have the same kind of patience today)

 

[cjbfbp]

I am not trying to be fatalistic, I just believe that Coyle really didn't want to be in this position. I am in the camp that believes that he would have fired Pitino last year but for the pandemic. I think that he hoped that, by kicking the can down the road, we would be in a place now where either Pitino made enough improvement that he could keep him around or the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic would be behind us so that he could hire a new coach without all the revenue uncertainty surrounding the program and the University as a whole. If that was his gamble, he lost. Things with Pitino have deteriorated to the point where I think he has to make a move and he's doing it from a position of relative weakness rather than a position of strength.

I don't think that means that they can't make a good hire or that things are hopeless forever. But I do think that the idea that they should just spend whatever it takes to get the best possible option without regard for their budget is unrealistic. (Not attributing that view to you, but some of the other posts in this and similar threads.)

Normally, I enjoy being disagreeable but I simply can't find a single word to disagree with in your post!

 

[Otis]

Well, yes, and the universe of potentials isn't limited to two coaches. I also can understand the preference for a mature established coach with demonstrated track record of success. I usually felt that way myself during the Pitino era. However, one can get caught up too much in one idea due to a knee-jerk reaction to a prior failure. Hiring a relatively young and less experienced head coach definitely did not work out in Pitino's case but that doesn't mean it can't work out. Here's are some situations where it did work out:

Iowa hired 40 year old Lute Olson with one year of head coaching experience at Long Beach State

Duke hired 33 year old Coach K after a so-so five year stint at Army

Kansas State Hired 34 year old Lon Kruger after a so-so four year stint at Texas Rio Grande Valley

Butler elevated 31 year old assistant coach Brad Stevens to the head coaching position

Seton Hall hired 33 year old PJ Carlesimo after a fairly undistinguished 6 year stint at Wagner (took him 6 years to turn around Seton Hall though - not sure fans have the same kind of patience today)

But we are Minnesota. We have snowstorms or something prevent us from hiring John Wooden.

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

Well, yes, and the universe of potentials isn't limited to two coaches. I also can understand the preference for a mature established coach with demonstrated track record of success. I usually felt that way myself during the Pitino era. However, one can get caught up too much in one idea due to a knee-jerk reaction to a prior failure. Hiring a relatively young and less experienced head coach definitely did not work out in Pitino's case but that doesn't mean it can't work out. Here's are some situations where it did work out:

Iowa hired 40 year old Lute Olson with one year of head coaching experience at Long Beach State

Duke hired 33 year old Coach K after a so-so five year stint at Army

Kansas State Hired 34 year old Lon Kruger after a so-so four year stint at Texas Rio Grande Valley

Butler elevated 31 year old assistant coach Brad Stevens to the head coaching position

Seton Hall hired 33 year old PJ Carlesimo after a fairly undistinguished 6 year stint at Wagner (took him 6 years to turn around Seton Hall though - not sure fans have the same kind of patience today)

This is a good point, although I would feel better about it if you had cited some examples from the last 30 years!

 

[GopherPlaya]

Are you saying last year's team would not have made the post season, had there been one?

My bad once but it is not like he is elevating the program. He took over a program that was already established

 

[cjbfbp]

This is a good point, although I would feel better about it if you had cited some examples from the last 30 years!

Touche! But, but..there was Brad Stevens so I did find one!

 

[tjgopher]

I think the problem is more the $7M or $8M or whatever it is in the next year

Where are you getting $7-$8 million? Using your own numbers, it would be:

$2.75m - Musselman buyout (negotiated down)
$1.35 - Pitino buyout (less the $400k check you'd write if you kept him)
$1m - Musselman salary over what was budgeted for Pitino (you proposed $3.5m)

That is an extra $5.1m.

Not an insignificant amount, but not $7m or $8m, and certainly not the sticker shock of $25m.

$5.1m could come from any combination of donors, a loan from the general fund, cutting other expenses, shuffling how you spend the department's money, etc.

 

[tjgopher]

Touche! But, but..there was Brad Stevens so I did find one!

There are several more recent examples of young coaches getting jobs with relatively little prior head coaching experience.

Purdue hired a 34 year old Matt Painter after one-year at Southern Illinois.

Tom Izzo was elevated as a 40-year assistant with NO head coaching experience

Thad Matta was hired as a 33-year old at Butler, as a 34-year old at Xavier, and as a 37-year old at Ohio State.

Florida hired 30-year old Billy Donavan after two uneventful years at Marshall.

Shaka Smart was 32-years old when VCU hired him with no head coaching experience and was in the Final Four at age 34 years old

 

[2nd Degree Gopher]

Where are you getting $7-$8 million? Using your own numbers, it would be:

$2.75m - Musselman buyout (negotiated down)
$1.35 - Pitino buyout (less the $400k check you'd write if you kept him)
$1m - Musselman salary over what was budgeted for Pitino (you proposed $3.5m)

That is an extra $5.1m.

Not an insignificant amount, but not $7m or $8m, and certainly not the sticker shock of $25m.

$5.1m could come from any combination of donors, a loan from the general fund, cutting other expenses, shuffling how you spend the department's money, etc.

To hire Musselman, Coyle has to write checks for the two buyouts ($2.75M and $1.75M) and pay Musselman $3.5M (using my numbers). That's $8M. He has $2.5M for Pitino's salary already budgeted, the rest he needs to raise. Using my numbers that is $5.5M. Maybe it's closer to $4M, maybe it's really $6M. Whichever numbers you use, he needs to come up with a plan for that money. Maybe there is a donor or a couple of donors who will help pay that. I hope that there are, but they have been trying to raise a lot of money for various projects for a long time and it's been painstaking work. I am not saying it can't be done, only that it won't be easy and I don't think they will do it.

 

[cjbfbp]

I am not trying to be fatalistic, I just believe that Coyle really didn't want to be in this position. I am in the camp that believes that he would have fired Pitino last year but for the pandemic. I think that he hoped that, by kicking the can down the road, we would be in a place now where either Pitino made enough improvement that he could keep him around or the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic would be behind us so that he could hire a new coach without all the revenue uncertainty surrounding the program and the University as a whole. If that was his gamble, he lost. Things with Pitino have deteriorated to the point where I think he has to make a move and he's doing it from a position of relative weakness rather than a position of strength.

I don't think that means that they can't make a good hire or that things are hopeless forever. But I do think that the idea that they should just spend whatever it takes to get the best possible option without regard for their budget is unrealistic. (Not attributing that view to you, but some of the other posts in this and similar threads.)

I mentioned before how I thought your post was excellent but I just wanted to add two other things that are a bit different from last year:

1) Most people believe that the end of the pandemic is in sight; and
2) People have gotten far more accustomed to working remotely and are more confident that interviews and negotiations that used to be handled by extensive travel and in-person conferences can be handled digitally.

Last March, I could see people saying now is not the time to do searches requiring committees, extensive flights, hotel rooms, dinners, and in-person meetings. Now I can see them realizing they could handle the meetings and interviews remotely and give a prospective candidate a quality video presentation of the facilities. The candidate would miss out on some of the visitor perks but that's a small price to pay for the far more flexible and less exhausting method of doing these interviews from you own home.

 

[PMWinSTP]

My bad once but it is not like he is elevating the program. He took over a program that was already established

True, but he was a big part of that established success at Mich and SDSU. It's why Fisher got him from Mich as soon as he got the SDSU job. Widely credited with his ability to recruit top players.

 

[cjbfbp]

There are several more recent examples of young coaches getting jobs with relatively little prior head coaching experience.

Purdue hired a 34 year old Matt Painter after one-year at Southern Illinois.

Tom Izzo was elevated as a 40-year assistant with NO head coaching experience

Thad Matta was hired as a 33-year old at Butler, as a 34-year old at Xavier, and as a 37-year old at Ohio State.

Florida hired 30-year old Billy Donavan after two uneventful years at Marshall.

Shaka Smart was 32-years old when VCU hired him with no head coaching experience and was in the Final Four at age 34 years old

Thanks for the help. Two heads are always better than one!

 

[tjgopher]

To hire Musselman, Coyle has to write checks for the two buyouts ($2.75M and $1.75M) and pay Musselman $3.5M (using my numbers). That's $8M. He has $2.5M for Pitino's salary already budgeted, the rest he needs to raise. Using my numbers that is $5.5M. Maybe it's closer to $4M, maybe it's really $6M. Whichever numbers you use, he needs to come up with a plan for that money. Maybe there is a donor or a couple of donors who will help pay that. I hope that there are, but they have been trying to raise a lot of money for various projects for a long time and it's been painstaking work. I am not saying it can't be done, only that it won't be easy and I don't think they will do it.

You keep leaving out the fact he doesn't have to write a $400k retention bonus check as if it doesn't matter. Saving that money matters. So, it is $5.1m of real money using your numbers.

That isn't $7m or $8m, or $21m.

As you say, maybe it's $4m, maybe it's $6m.

I agree with you - it is unlikely Musselman ends up on the bench at the barn, but it is not impossible.

I just don't like people (not you, but I see it a lot) throwing out $21m to do it. And, if Coyle pulls it off, mark my words, that's how it will be portrayed and he will get ripped by some.

Just trying to break it down so people understand it is not $25 million dollars to go get Eric Musselman. It will be costly, but not that costly.

 

[bizzle22]

You keep leaving out the fact he doesn't have to write a $400k retention bonus check as if it doesn't matter. Saving that money matters. So, it is $5.1m of real money using your numbers.

That isn't $7m or $8m, or $21m.

As you say, maybe it's $4m, maybe it's $6m.

I agree with you - it is unlikely Musselman ends up on the bench at the barn, but it is not impossible.

I just don't like people (not you, but I see it a lot) throwing out $21m to do it. And, if Coyle pulls it off, mark my words, that's how it will be portrayed and he will get ripped by some.

Just trying to break it down so people understand it is not $25 million dollars to go get Eric Musselman. It will be costly, but not that costly.

It doesn’t necessarily work that way with the retention bonus. Athletic departments have different pots of money. Ticket $, media rights $, student activity fee $, marketing rights $, general donation $, school capital project $, concession $, specific donation $, and more. There are different rules for how each pot of $ can be spent, some more restrictive than others.

In college athletics it is usually just the coach’s base salary that is paid out of general athletic department funds which would be mostly from ticket dollars and media rights dollars. Things like retention bonuses or annuities are usually paid by boosters, often even specific boosters. Aka Booster Billy Bob signs an agreement to donate $400k on April 30, 2021 with the legal requirement that it go to Pitino’s retention bonus. If it’s not going to the retention bonus then Billy Bob is off the hook and doesn’t pay a dime. Now, maybe Billy Bob has decided he doesn’t really like Pitino so he’s ok giving the $400k and having it go toward the buyout, but maybe not.

My point is that it’s not a given those dollars are still available. At least not without doing some schmoozing to convince Billy Bob to change the requirement on his donation, or maybe finding another booster to cover it.

Money from different pots can be used to cover other expenses so there can be some creative work arounds with a good finance person, but donated dollars are usually among the more restricted.

 

[tjgopher]

It doesn’t necessarily work that way with the retention bonus. Athletic departments have different pots of money. Ticket $, media rights $, student activity fee $, marketing rights $, general donation $, school capital project $, concession $, specific donation $, and more. There are different rules for how each pot of $ can be spent, some more restrictive than others.

In college athletics it is usually just the coach’s base salary that is paid out of general athletic department funds which would be mostly from ticket dollars and media rights dollars. Things like retention bonuses or annuities are usually paid by boosters, often even specific boosters. Aka Booster Billy Bob signs an agreement to donate $400k on April 30, 2021 with the legal requirement that it go to Pitino’s retention bonus. If it’s not going to the retention bonus then Billy Bob is off the hook and doesn’t pay a dime. Now, maybe Billy Bob has decided he doesn’t really like Pitino so he’s ok giving the $400k and having it go toward the buyout, but maybe not.

My point is that it’s not a given those dollars are still available. At least not without doing some schmoozing to convince Billy Bob to change the requirement on his donation, or maybe finding another booster to cover it.

Money from different pots can be used to cover other expenses so there can be some creative work arounds with a good finance person, but donated dollars are usually among the more restricted.

True, it could be variable, but it is unlikely the $400K retention bonus is coming from a specific donor at a place like Minnesota. It is likely coming from a reserve fund that is there for retention and performance bonuses and is part of the overall budget.

Coaches base salaries are usually paid by the general operating athletic budget. The base salary is usually lower than total compensation. Supplemental income makes up a lot and that comes from media rights, shoe contracts, appearances, camps, etc.

But, you could be right. Maybe a specific donor decided a couple of years ago when they negotiated this deal to be the one to pay for Pitino's $400k April 2021 retention bonus.

If that's the case and it can't be repurposed, then I suppose that number discussed does indeed go to $5.5m, not $5.1m. Still not $7m, $8m, or $25m.

 

[builtbadgers]

You keep leaving out the fact he doesn't have to write a $400k retention bonus check as if it doesn't matter. Saving that money matters. So, it is $5.1m of real money using your numbers.

That isn't $7m or $8m, or $21m.

As you say, maybe it's $4m, maybe it's $6m.

I agree with you - it is unlikely Musselman ends up on the bench at the barn, but it is not impossible.

I just don't like people (not you, but I see it a lot) throwing out $21m to do it. And, if Coyle pulls it off, mark my words, that's how it will be portrayed and he will get ripped by some.

Just trying to break it down so people understand it is not $25 million dollars to go get Eric Musselman. It will be costly, but not that costly.

Really hard for me seeing Arkansas just waving goodbye and starting over. I see them offering 4.5 and a giant Walton funded annuity. Perhaps Muss just wants to be in Minnesota.

 

[tjgopher]

Really hard for me seeing Arkansas just waving goodbye and starting over. I see them offering 4.5 and a giant Walton funded annuity. Perhaps Muss just wants to be in Minnesota.

Yes, exactly. As has been mentioned countless times, if he comes, it won't be because of money. It will be because this is where he wants to be.

Minnesota cannot win a bidding war against a willing bidder such as Arkansas, no one is debating that.

It seems the thought is if Minnesota can make it somewhat competitive (and maybe they can't), Musselman will come because he is truly interested in coaching in Minneapolis where his dad coached.

 

[Gopherbbdude]

Dutcher was 30-2 last season and would have been a 1 or 2 seed in the Tourney.

Musselman is doing great things at Arkansas.

Either of these coaches would be pretty darn good

 

[60's Guy]

Post 12...this thread... Pitino makes 1.6 million. That is a combination of athletic department money
and tv/radio money etc...So, it is 1.6 and I don't have the whole agreement but maybe $600k (or some decent number) comes from sponsors?
As much angst as Pitino has caused on this board...it also seems plausible Coyle has had conversations from people offering to contribute to the salary of a new coach with their money.
So, I don't think it's as dire dollar wise as some of you. Also, hiring someone like Medved does zip, nada, nuthin' to quiet the bandwagon fans. Coyle, I would think realizes he needs somebody to get people to pay attention. To me: the definition of that is Musselman and Dutcher or someone with even more stature then that we have not even mentioned.
We are in the Big Ten.