That analogy doesn't make any sense. 50/50 odds have nothing to do with us going to the tournament. That's like when a player trims his list to 5 schools and people say he has a 20% chance of going to school x.
I bet you're happy getting fans riled up on this. Obviously you want to hear a coach be optimistic (though new coaches often just say what fans want to hear), but ultimately, why does it matter? The results are what matter, not his first year's public expectations. Stop trying to blow this up.
Also, I'm still waiting to hear your response to my post about Tubby getting the raw deal...
"You have legitimate points, but honestly, the justification of his firing just depends on which criteria you select. I'll provide reasons for the other side of the argument.
- In 6 yrs, he went over .500 in conference 0 times. How many other BT teams haven't had a single winning season in the past 6 yrs?
- How many other BT teams have made as many negative headlines as us in the past 6 yrs?
- Does Tubby's coaching/recruiting honestly look like it's on an upward trajectory?
- Have you seen a more stubborn coach in terms of adapting to the current game and making in-game adjustments?
- Have you seen quite this high of a percentage of players leave a program to then thrive somewhere else? (I realize some of that has to do w/ competition, but that's certainly not the whole story)
- Do you hear other announcers question the in-game coaching of other coaches as much as they did for Tubby? (Substitutions, lack of offense/in-game adjustments/out-of-bounds plays w/ a purpose, failure to emphasize top players on offense, etc)
- Did Saul honestly deserve his job? Was his punishment harsh enough?
- Did Tubby's teams typically improve over the course of a season?
- Did it seem like the players liked Tubby as much as players like coaches on other teams? (I realize there's plenty of speculation in there but I think you know there's some truth to players not seeming to really enjoy playing for him)
- Did the boosters seem to be confident in the direction of the program under Tubby? I realize their assessment might not be fair, but to be honest, they need to be happy if we want a practice facility.
- Did it seem like TUbby still had the passion/commitment/preparation you'd want from your coach?
- Have you heard many other coaches throw their players under the bus as much as TUbby and take as little credit for losses?
- I'm guessing you'll say this is unfair, but did it seem like there was much optimism regarding the future of the program?
- Did we not get incredibly lucky on our draw for the tournament (best player gets hurt the game before)?
I could go on forever with this. Maybe not all of it is important, but can you honestly say most of these points aren't legit reasons to try going another direction? It's not like Tubby didn't get his chance. 6 yrs is plenty of time. Just because he ended on his best season doesn't mean he didn't deserve to be fired. I think you're focusing too much on how he ended. His body of work was far from impressive.
- Would you honestly rather...
1) pay Tubby a ridiculous salary to continue everything I discussed above, and most importantly, have a ceiling of being extremely mediocre?
or
2) try an up and coming coach (for a much lower price tag) who can inject some energy into the program? Would you honestly rather continue being mediocre or gamble on a high risk/reward coach?"
I'm not "judging" anyone, I just think any head coach of any Big Ten team saying that making the Tournament is "pretty unrealistic" is a stupid thing to say, whether it's their first year or not. If he said this prior to going into his first year at FIU? Sure, "pretty unrealistic" is accurate, optimistic even. But in the Big Ten? The average Big Ten team has at least a 50/50 shot going into any year just based on your conference affiliation and the schedule you play. I don't flip a coin and say that it landing on heads is "pretty unrealistic". He needs to figure out that he's the head coach of a Big Ten team now and the "little engine that could" nonsense doesn't fly, especially when we fired your predecessor for not only making the Tournament, but winning a game.