PiPress: Gophers football: Philip Nelson is no shoo-in to start next season

[MNVCGUY]

Catechol, I like setting lofty goals for next year and I know the expectations are going to be much higher for Nelson, Kill, and the Gophers.
Who do you think they can get the 4 wins against in in the Big ten next year?

I will take a stab at it becuase I actually think our Big Ten Schedule next year is not that bad all things considered. In terms of wins:

Home wins
Iowa - They were bad this year probably not going to be leaps and bounds better next year
Penn State - Lose their QB, will still be talented but should be starting to feel the effects of the sanctions

Road wins
at Indiana - They are improving and recruiting seems to be going well but at the very least we should be on a pretty equal footing with them
at Northwestern - They are always good but never truly dominant. We have had success there and no reason to think we can't compete with them

Tossup
Wisconsin - Home game, new coaching staff for them. I would say right now they are the favorite but tough to say

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Catechol, I like setting lofty goals for next year and I know the expectations are going to be much higher for Nelson, Kill, and the Gophers.
Who do you think they can get the 4 wins against in in the Big ten next year?

At Michigan is the toughest game on the schedule next year; at MSU and home against Nebraska are close behind, but not impossible.

After that, I think the other 5 are "winnable" games, games they will either be favored, or likely less than 7-8 point dogs.

They get two weeks to get ready for Wisky, which will help. Count me as one that's not THAT impressed with Indiana, at least not yet. People seemed to fall in love with them for a few weeks there but in all reality, they beat NOBODY, and their defense gave up a horrendous 35+ points per game. They couldn't run the ball, and they couldn't stop anybody. Yes, they are an improving program, but if they don't keep what momentum they have going forward next year, they'll fall back to the cellar, and fast. Similar to the Gophers, next year will be an important one for them.

I'm not betting the farm, but I think there are 4 wins on the BT schedule next year. For many of the guys that will be starting, this will be at least their 3rd year in the system, and for many of them it will be their third year STARTING.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

Just looking at some BT schedules next year and WOW. A couple things stand out.

MSU has a pretty favorable schedule, and with a lot of players returning, they could make some noise in both the conference race and beyond.

HOLY CRAP, Wisky has about the most favorable BT conference schedule a person could ever hope for. Wisky MISSES Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska. Good grief. Outside of a road game against OSU, they should be favored in most of their conference games. They actually have a couple of tough NC games, BYU and on the road against Arizona State, but if they don't throw up all over themselves (like they tried to this year), the schedule couldn't be any more friendly for them to have a decent season.

Conversely, Northwestern has a pretty tough schedule in the BT. Home against the Gophers could be the only game in which they are favored, outside of maybe closing the season on the road against Illinois. Might be tough for the Mildcats to get bowl eligible next year, even if they do feel they've moved forward as a program. I guess we'll find out next year.

 

[pharmacygopher]

True, but with MD/Rutgers likely going to the other division I would think the Iowa and Neb away games would still be there. Since Wisky is "protected" they may stay on the schedule too. Only thing I see happening with those 3 is Kill/Teague pushing for the B1G to give them a home game against one of them 2 years in a row. Or maybe they'd try to get out of the Wisconsin protected rivalry altogether.

Huh?? And kill the oldest football rivalry. That would be a horrible mistake.

 

[Sportsfan24]

Agree on point 2 for the most part, although it's been my contention for some time that they're SOMEWHAT built for NEXT year. Agreed, they will be even better in 2014 than they will next year.

But one point 1, I disagree completely. First, I do NOT think they will be bad. The struggles this year were almost entirely due to having just way too much youth and inexperience on the offensive line. They return every O-Lineman that played a down in 2012 and each and every one of them will be another year older, stronger, and more experienced.

I don't totally agree on the strength of the conference either. Yes, perhaps on a national level the conference won't be as "bad" as a WHOLE, especially with Ohio State being once again eligible for post season play. OSU essentially being a non-factor played a BIG role in how the conference was perceived.

But looking at the Gophers schedule, which is all that matters in determining how
good of a season the Gophers will have, I don't agree that it will be significantly
harder than 2012;

Iowa, Penn State, Michigan all lose Senior starting QB's to graduation and at
the position is largely unsettled. Everyone except perhaps Indiana (and maybe
Wisky if Frederick stays) experience significant losses to graduation on the O-Line.

The cumulative turnover of the coaching staff over the last 3 years at Wisky will continue to take it's toll. They return enough players in 2013 that they'll field a
solid team (but beatable for the Gophers at TCF next year), but with the mass
departures on the staff, the days of winning BT Championships are ancient history.

The sanctions/penalties at Penn State will start to take their toll next year as well.
In 2012, it made sense for many of the Seniors to stick around and play out the
season. The recruiting and scholarship limitations will start to hit them in 2013, but
will hit them the hardest in 2014 and 2015. Next year, with the game at TCF, it's
a game the Gophers can win.

I think two road games will determine just HOW strong of a season the Gophers will
have next year; Indiana and Northwestern. They HAVE to win one of those; if
they can win both, they can win 8 or 9 games next year.

If you are correct and this team is good (winning record) next year, then coach Kill deserves the credit. If they don't have a winning record, I thinks it's to be expected. For me 2014 will determine what kind of staff we have.

 

[Sportsfan24]

Wow, I never would have guessed you felt that way...

IMO, M. Gray was without a doubt a leader of last years team.

Gray was certainly a leader (in life) based on his character and work ethic. On the field leader? I would say no, because you have to be competent at the position you play before others will follow you. As a player and coach I have never known a team to follow someone who was still a work in progress at their own position.

 

[Catechol]

Huh?? And kill the oldest football rivalry. That would be a horrible mistake.

Pun intended? I was mostly kidding, but alluding to Kill's philosophy that the schedule should be as easy as possible. Having a protected cross-division rivalry with the team that has beaten the Gophers approximately the last 9 years or so is one he would push the league to back out of if there wasn't so much history behind it.