Pete Thamel: Time to face reality: ‘No one is playing college football in the fall’

[MplsGopher]

https://sports.yahoo.com/time-to-fa...g-college-football-in-the-fall-170634809.html

Time to face reality: ‘No one is playing college football in the fall’
“Right now, I don’t see a path in the current environment to how we play,” said a Power Five athletic director. “I’m confident we’ll get back to what we all think of as normal, but it may be a year before that happens.”

Here’s the cruel truth about how college football leaders approached football this fall: The entirety of their plan to return was based on hope. Hope that the COVID-19 would go away. Hope that college campuses wouldn’t be a petri dish for the virus. Hope that they could figure out a way to play a contact sport in a time of mandatory social distancing. Hope for a vaccine to keep players healthy and seats full.

A strategy of hope isn’t much of a strategy, and a half-dozen coaches and officials told Yahoo Sports this weekend that hope is being vanquished. It’s all over in the minds of many coaches and athletic directors, as the sport will keep pushing back to buy time until the inevitable happens.

“Ultimately, no one is playing football in the fall,” said a high-ranking college official. “It’s just a matter of how it unfolds. As soon one of the ‘autonomy five’ or Power Five conferences makes a decision, that’s going to end it.”

 

[GopherVotary]

Reality sucks.

 

[Mulligan]

Line up the "But it's mainly killing old folks" or "It's the damn media over-reaction" remarks. Ironically, the crowd clamoring for a football season is representative of the folks driving a resurgence. Who the hell knows what the actual percentages are as far as people dying or having serious complications versus the number of people who actually had it. If enough people get sick, then there are enough people being affected that steps need to be taken to bring the numbers down again. We're obviously at that stage in places again.

Sports starting up again had lots of testing as a strategy to making it work. I'm surprised, seeing the mess with testing in parts of the country, that there hasn't been more blowback about athletes being tested multiple times a week while the average person has to wait hours in a line of cars to be tested and then not get the results back for days.

 

[BleedGopher]

Sigh-U-Mah...

Go Gophers!!

 

[PitinoFan]

Line up the "But it's mainly killing old folks" or "It's the damn media over-reaction" remarks. Ironically, the crowd clamoring for a football season is representative of the folks driving a resurgence. Who the hell knows what the actual percentages are as far as people dying or having serious complications versus the number of people who actually had it. If enough people get sick, then there are enough people being affected that steps need to be taken to bring the numbers down again. We're obviously at that stage in places again.

Sports starting up again had lots of testing as a strategy to making it work. I'm surprised, seeing the mess with testing in parts of the country, that there hasn't been more blowback about athletes being tested multiple times a week while the average person has to wait hours in a line of cars to be tested and then not get the results back for days.

Hell, why stop there. Let’s close everything, and lock ourselves in our homes for the next couple months, because that’s what it would take, and even then, there would probably still be some isolated cases that could result in future hot spots. Just make sure you stock up on toilet paper, if you haven’t already.

 

[MplsGopher]

All I know is, schools need to plan for there being no major revenue in the 2020-21 fiscal/season year.

If you want to have an athletics program going forward, then the school will have to bail it out. If not, or if you can’t, not sure what can realistically be done.

 

[Taji34]

Hell, why stop there. Let’s close everything, and lock ourselves in our homes for the next couple months, because that’s what it would take, and even then, there would probably still be some isolated cases that could result in future hot spots. Just make sure you stock up on toilet paper, if you haven’t already.

I mean, New Zealand was able to do it . . . They are COVID free and back to regular life. Only thing different is their international border is still closed to prevent someone from bringing it in again.

 

[benlaur]

Line up the "But it's mainly killing old folks" or "It's the damn media over-reaction" remarks. Ironically, the crowd clamoring for a football season is representative of the folks driving a resurgence. Who the hell knows what the actual percentages are as far as people dying or having serious complications versus the number of people who actually had it. If enough people get sick, then there are enough people being affected that steps need to be taken to bring the numbers down again. We're obviously at that stage in places again.

Sports starting up again had lots of testing as a strategy to making it work. I'm surprised, seeing the mess with testing in parts of the country, that there hasn't been more blowback about athletes being tested multiple times a week while the average person has to wait hours in a line of cars to be tested and then not get the results back for days.

Mulligan, define resurgence. Approximately 25% of all tests in the US occurred in the last 3 weeks.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

On the bright side, we're all going to get a lot more yard work done on Saturdays this Fall.

Or not.

leaving all the political stuff aside, the situation stinks, but I understand why this might happen.

As I have said before, it's easy to say "let them play" when you are facing no consequences. but for the AD's and especially the college Presidents, they're the ones on the hot seat if athletes start testing positive or getting sick.

Personally, I don't want to watch a college FB season if it means rosters are being shuffled from week to week, and you never know when a key player might have to sit out a game after testing positive.

expecting thousands of 18- to 21-year old men to stay in a bubble is just unrealistic. NBA players are going outside the bubble to pick up fast food. You think a college kid is going to stay away from girls, parties, etc for three months or longer. not gonna happen.

 

[PitinoFan]

I mean, New Zealand was able to do it . . . They are COVID free and back to regular life. Only thing different is their international border is still closed to prevent someone from bringing it in again.

My point is it isn’t going anywhere. Without a
vaccine, we either need to learn to live with it, or lock ourselves in our homes, regardless of whether there’s a football season. I don’t think we can compare the US with New Zealand for obvious reasons.

 

[PitinoFan]

think a college kid is going to stay away from girls, parties, etc for three months or longer. not gonna happen.

No, they certainly aren’t even doing that now, which is why they’re going to get it anyway, whether they play football or not. Without a vaccine, it needs to run its course, like it did in NYC, and like it’s doing in Florida and Texas right now (with a fraction of the deaths, compared to the earlier outbreaks).

 

[Wally]

In order to play college football it has to be old rules, your to sick to play you sit out, otherwise you play. Mass testing and sitting positive players means the season is over.

 

[PMWinSTP]

Mulligan, define resurgence. Approximately 25% of all tests in the US occurred in the last 3 weeks.

Not sure where you got your stat but here is the daily data from The Covid Tracking project.

Totals for the US

Daily totals for all metrics collected from January 2020 to the present.

covidtracking.com

Using some math:
Since June 12, increase in avg daily tests: 37%, and the increase in avg daily cases: 152%

 

[MplsGopher]

No, they certainly aren’t even doing that now, which is why they’re going to get it anyway, whether they play football or not. Without a vaccine, it needs to run its course, like it did in NYC, and like it’s doing in Florida and Texas right now (with a fraction of the deaths, compared to the earlier outbreaks).

Except NYC probably only has around 25% of its population with antibodies. No one knows for sure what % is needed for herd, but guessing higher than that. Meaning there could be a resurgence in NYC, Sweden, or Florida/Texas/Cali even after their current spike simmers down.

And the link posted showing that antibodies drop significantly after 3mo.

Means we’re only going to get rid of this thing with a massive, successful vaccine effort, one day.

Only question is how soon that day comes.

 

[1983]

Our government screwed us. If we had respect of experts and did not make this thing a Democrat vs Trump game, we would be playing for sure. Idiots running around saying its a hoax or saying their freedoms are compromised has compromised our routines, season and lives. Mitigation of the virus in most of this country was joke and now it is too late, it is out of control. Saying we play and let the virus play out is selfish. Keep doing what we are doing now as a country will cost a lot more than a few weeks of staying home and following some easy and basic protocols in public.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I suspect the college kids will still socialize and spread it to their each other, their family and coworkers as they are currently doing with school out of session. The difference, should the universities cancel campus classes and sports, will be the schools will be off the hook for liability of their paid staff and vulnerable student populations which, let’s face it is the primary concern.

 

[MplsGopher]

I suspect the college kids will still socialize and spread it to their each other, their family and coworkers as they are currently doing with school out of session. The difference, should the universities cancel campus classes and sports, will be the schools will be off the hook for liability of their paid staff and vulnerable student populations which, let’s face it is the primary concern.

Which should be the primary concern, if a reasonable vaccine can be produced quickly enough. If it can’t, then more hard decisions to save the economy.

 

[Some guy]

I mean, New Zealand was able to do it . . . They are COVID free and back to regular life. Only thing different is their international border is still closed to prevent someone from bringing it in again.

Way to make it an immigration issue

 

[PitinoFan]

Except NYC probably only has around 25% of its population with antibodies. No one knows for sure what % is needed for herd, but guessing higher than that. Meaning there could be a resurgence in NYC, Sweden, or Florida/Texas/Cali even after their current spike simmers down.

And the link posted showing that antibodies drop significantly after 3mo.

Means we’re only going to get rid of this thing with a massive, successful vaccine effort, one day.

Only question is how soon that day comes.

Treatments will continue to get better. They already have, actually. That probably has something to do with the lower death rates the Southern states are seeing. I think we just need to learn to live with it until the vaccine gets here. Yes, that includes taking extra precautions, especially with the most vulnerable. There is no perfect answer.

Meanwhile, if you’re obese, now is the time to do something about it. I read that one of the consequence of the lockdowns has been that lots of people have gained a considerable amount of weight sitting around their house. Now, many of them are likely more at risk of complications should they become infected with the virus.

 

[GophersInIowa]

My point is it isn’t going anywhere. Without a
vaccine, we either need to learn to live with it, or lock ourselves in our homes, regardless of whether there’s a football season. I don’t think we can compare the US with New Zealand for obvious reasons.

I think a lot of people are trying to live with it. What that looks like just may be a little different than prior to all of this. The people that are not willing to do simple things to try to slow the spread are the people not willing to live with it IMO.

 

[Roland Brooks]

if I am an athlete today I worry more about CTE issues than COVID.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

if I am an athlete today I worry more about CTE issues than COVID.

To some extent if you've chosen to play, you already kinda decided on CTE and i'm not sure how often you're likely thinking about it if you chose to play...

 

[Roland Brooks]

Ok

 

[MplsGopher]

if I am an athlete today I worry more about CTE issues than COVID.

If you develop CTE, you aren’t worried that you’ll accidentally infect your wife with CTE.

 

[Plato]

Hell, why stop there. Let’s close everything, and lock ourselves in our homes for the next couple months, because that’s what it would take, and even then, there would probably still be some isolated cases that could result in future hot spots. Just make sure you stock up on toilet paper, if you haven’t already.

That is what some countries did that were very affected or did not want to become so.
And it worked.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

On the bright side, we're all going to get a lot more yard work done on Saturdays this Fall.

Or not.

leaving all the political stuff aside, the situation stinks, but I understand why this might happen.

As I have said before, it's easy to say "let them play" when you are facing no consequences. but for the AD's and especially the college Presidents, they're the ones on the hot seat if athletes start testing positive or getting sick.

Personally, I don't want to watch a college FB season if it means rosters are being shuffled from week to week, and you never know when a key player might have to sit out a game after testing positive.

expecting thousands of 18- to 21-year old men to stay in a bubble is just unrealistic. NBA players are going outside the bubble to pick up fast food. You think a college kid is going to stay away from girls, parties, etc for three months or longer. not gonna happen.

My office closed and we became a virtual company, giving me basically 15 additional hours per week. I'm running out of things to do with my yard. I'm going to go bat-bleep crazy here shortly.

 

[Taji34]

Way to make it an immigration issue

.... what?

 

[MplsGopher]

My office closed and we became a virtual company, giving me basically 15 additional hours per week. I'm running out of things to do with my yard. I'm going to go bat-pleep crazy here shortly.

You spent 3hrs a day commuting? Or you’re including “prepping to leave” time, something like that?

 

[Plato]

But the more important issue is that the pandemic is the most disruptive event to occur to the home country since WW2.
Millions are out of work, people are not able to pay rent, banks are looking at enormous losses from bad loans, over a hundred thousand are dead, millions more seriously ill and some disabled from the virus, etc, etc and some people are jumping up and down with anger because some kids will not play a game to entertain them.
This is clearly not the greatest generation.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

You spent 3hrs a day commuting? Or you’re including “prepping to leave” time, something like that?

Little of both. Commute was about 45 minutes each way, time for dropoffs at daycare, plus I had to take an hour for lunch every day. Today on my lunch hour, I mowed the lawn.