Over or under 5 wins next season?

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Look at Iowa's senior class.

1 Justin Greiner CB 5-10 185 SR WASHINGTON, IA
1 Daniel Murray K 5-10 185 SR IOWA CITY, IA
5 Ryan Donahue P 6-3 190 SR EVERGREEN PARK, IL
11 Don Nordmann WR 6-6 211 SR HOPKINTON, IA
12 Ricky Stanzi QB 6-4 230 SR MENTOR, OH
15 Derrell Johnson-Koulianos WR 6-1 200 SR CAMPBELL, OH
21 Nick Kuchel WR 5-11 195 SR KINGSLEY, IA
22 Colin Sandeman WR 6-1 200 SR BETTENDORF, IA
25 Paki O'Meara RB 5-11 211 SR CEDAR RAPIDS, IA
26 Paul Chaney Jr. WR 5-9 170 SR ST. LOUIS, MO
30 Brett Greenwood CB 6-0 200 SR BETTENDORF, IA
33 Jeff Tarpinian LB 6-3 238 SR OMAHA, NE
36 Brett Morse FB 6-3 238 SR WILLOWBROOK, IL
42 Jeremiha Hunter LB 6-2 235 SR HARRISBURG, PA
46 Christian Ballard DT 6-5 297 SR LAWRENCE, KS
48 Troy Johnson LB 6-2 235 SR LAKELAND, FL
63 Julian Vandervelde OL 6-3 300 SR DAVENPORT, IA
65 Andrew Schulze LS 6-5 255 SR WOODRIDGE, IL
67 Josh Koeppel OL 6-2 273 SR IOWA CITY, IA
69 Kyle Haganman OL 6-5 285 SR OSAGE, IA
82 Allen Reisner TE 6-3 248 SR MARION, IA
84 Ben Evans WR 6-0 178 SR IOWA CITY, IA
89 Joe Audlehelm WR 5-8 180 SR VAN WERT, IA
94 Adrian Clayborn DE 6-4 285 SR ST. LOUIS, MO
95 Karl Klug DT 6-4 270 SR CALEDONIA, MN
97 Ross Petersen LB 6-3 236 SR DURANT, IA

and Wisconsin's

2 Jay Valai CB 5-9 205 SR EULESS, TX
3 Kyle Jefferson WR 6-4 180 SR CLEVELAND, OH
6 Isaac Anderson WR 5-10 176 SR MINNEAPOLIS, MN
9 Blake Sorensen LB 6-1 231 SR EDEN PRAIRIE, MN
15 Culmer St. Jean LB 6-0 234 SR NAPLES, FL
16 Scott Tolzien QB 6-3 205 SR ROLLING MEADOWS, IL
29 Niles Brinkley CB 5-10 190 SR ST. LOUIS, MO
30 Zach Brown RB 5-10 220 SR ROYAL PALM BEACH, FL
68 Gabe Carimi OL 6-7 327 SR COTTAGE GROVE, WI
74 John Moffitt OL 6-5 323 SR GUILFORD, CT
76 Bill Nagy OL 6-3 318 SR HUDSON, OH
84 Lance Kendricks TE 6-4 241 SR MILWAUKEE, WI
85 David Gilreath WR 5-11 169 SR MINNEAPOLIS, MN

Iowa has to replace a sh!t ton of big-time contributors. Wisconsin's losses are fewer in number, but no less significant. Will the badger offense be as prolific without its qb and one side of its oline? What if John Clay decides it's time to go to the NFL? Iowa loses Stanzi, djk, and almost it's entire d line. That defense will not be the same.

The last two games showed this team is not without talent or heart. The program is not in "a shambles." I think we can look no further than Illinois for what bringing in a bunch of quality coaches can do for a program in the near term. If Kill can find 3 or 4 JUCOs to fill spots at receiver, o line and safety and teach the guys how to get to the qb, he might just get this team back in bowl contention. As we're all aware, Gray is really the x factor in all of this. He could explode like Denard Robinson, but be on a team with a relatively good defense. We'll have to wait see, but I for one am pretty optimistic about next year.
 

Over, 3 nonconference wins and there should be more than 2 in conference. I think Floyd stays for another year. I also thought they would be in a bowl this year so my opinion doesn't mean much.
 

OVER FOR THE LIMIT! I'd bet over for the limit & then find out where you're moving the line because I might bet it over for the limit again depending on what the new line is.
 

I am quite surprised by the overs in this thread. I think it is really unlikely that we win 5 games next year. We're again changing offenses, we don't know how many kids are transferring out, but we know there will be some. We are going to have a craptastic recruiting class due to the fact Kill isn't a recruiter and it is always hard for a coach just joining the program. So all that combined leads me to believe we'll max out at 3-4 wins next year. I'm looking forward to being wrong...
 



Sparlimb said:
I am quite surprised by the overs in this thread. I think it is really unlikely that we win 5 games next year. We're again changing offenses, we don't know how many kids are transferring out, but we know there will be some. We are going to have a craptastic recruiting class due to the fact Kill isn't a recruiter and it is always hard for a coach just joining the program. So all that combined leads me to believe we'll max out at 3-4 wins next year. I'm looking forward to being wrong...
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Were not going from the triple option to the spread. Who's going to transfer out? Surely they'll be some, but I've heard/seen nothing to make me believe there will be mass defections. The top players are all upper classmen & can't/won't burn a transfer year. Craptastic recruiting? Since when did true Freshmen win you games? So far only one recruit who's opting for E Mich (Eastern?) has bailed & the recruits sound pretty excited in general. Shortell the QB is solid, Buaducco the LB is solid, Tommy Olsen's not going anywhere, etc.

We have a few gimmes on the schedule, plus Kill is inheriting a lot of mature talent & in 17 seasons as a head coach Kill's teams have only won less than 6 games twice. He's not much to look at, but the guy can coach.
 

I will bite and take the over. Here is how I see it at first glance...

@ USC W (Kill gets the Gopher faithful a surprise W out of the shoot, plus 'SC is not that good)
New Mexico State W
Miami, Ohio W
NDSU W
@ Michigan L
@ Purdue W
Nebraska L
Iowa W
@ Michigan State L
Wisconsin L
@ Northwestern L
Illinois W

7-5 (3-5) with another trophy.
 

Well, my personal bell curve for next season's win total centers around 5. I'll be optimistic and take the over, though I wouldn't be in the least surprised if they finished with 4. If they finished with 3 it would be very, very disappointing.
 

I think they are pretty much a lock to get 4. So playing the percentages 5 is at worst is a push. Probably wouldn't bet, but if I had to I definitely would not take the under.
 



@ USC L
New Mexico State W
Miami, Ohio W
NDSU W
@ Michigan L
@ Purdue W
Nebraska L
Iowa W
@ Michigan State L
Wisconsin L
@ Northwestern W
Illinois W

I'd say the floor is five wins, three non conference and two conference wins. The ceiling is eight with either three non conference and five conference wins or four non conference and four conference wins.
 

I did things a bit differently. Teams at a higher level Nebraska, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Equals USC. Michigan,Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern and Illinois. Lower level New Mexico State, Miami and NDSU. Going 0-3, 3-3, and 3-0 gets you to 6-6
 

6 and 6

Coach Kill has won a lot of his years. I want to believe he'll figure out a way to get to 6 and 6 and a bowl. He almost has to I think. We have talent here now. 35 of the 44 coming back or something like that on both sides of the ball. In addition, we have a bunch of pretty good recruits who red shirted this year.

We are thinking coaching is his strength and recruiting is his weakness.....right? If we lose next year recruiting is going to become very difficult for him isn't it? 6 and 6 and a bowl and you got momentum to get it rolling.

Kind of sounds like the nucleus of the verbal recruits to date are still interested. That is a beginning to a decent recruiting class there. He'll come up with a speedy running back and some corners and we'll be fine.

I think this is different than his other stops. He doesn't have a honeymoon with BCS recruits to
just tell them it will get better in year two. He has to show something in year one, I think to have the best chance to climb the mountain.
 

I'll be disappointed if the don't win at least 6 games. I believe they have plenty of young talent - and they got rid of plenty of turds from the team (Weber, Theret, Brewster). They've got a ton of young lineman - which is great to have in place. They've got a stable of running backs to pick from. The best athletes are now into their junior seasons.

I'd love to see them travel to the Coliseum and beat U$C. That would be sweet.
 



Costa Rican Gopher said:
Were not going from the triple option to the spread. Who's going to transfer out? Surely they'll be some, but I've heard/seen nothing to make me believe there will be mass defections. The top players are all upper classmen & can't/won't burn a transfer year. Craptastic recruiting? Since when did true Freshmen win you games? So far only one recruit who's opting for E Mich (Eastern?) has bailed & the recruits sound pretty excited in general. Shortell the QB is solid, Buaducco the LB is solid, Tommy Olsen's not going anywhere, etc.

We have a few gimmes on the schedule, plus Kill is inheriting a lot of mature talent & in 17 seasons as a head coach Kill's teams have only won less than 6 games twice. He's not much to look at, but the guy can coach.
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Costa...I mean that: not a lot of depth this year + smaller freshmen class due to coach change + some kids probably transferring (there's always a few in a coaching change) = even less depth in year one. That's my worry. We probably have enough talent to win 3 of 4 non-conference games but not enough to compete well against fully manned B10 rosters...

Caveat: We know Coach Kill and staff are supposed to be good X's and O's guys. So it is possible we have more latent talent than we believe and these guys can bring it out. Just like Tubby did in year one on the hoops side. That, of course, is really hard to gauge, so we'll have to see. I'm always happy with bowl games and watch them no matter how crappy.
 

You need to post the s hedge with a questionlike this. Some people are reading on their phone..
 

Rosemountian said:
I think they are pretty much a lock to get 4. So playing the percentages 5 is at worst is a push. Probably wouldn't bet, but if I had to I definitely would not take the under.
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I'll take the even. But I'm of the school that it's always better to be pleasantly surprised at the end of the season than the opposite! This guy is a builder, not a miracle worker!

New coach, new systems, several weak defensive areas personnel wise ...all may have an effect.

And BTW, I think it's an assumption to say Coach Kill will be a weak recruiter. He may not (want) the kind of higher star guys Brewster did (who can't get into the U or can't stay there), but I think he'll get the guys he wants for his system. You can't compare recruiting while he was @ NIU with Big 10 recruiting...the Big10 is a much more desirable place to be with the big stage.

And Coach Kill is going to bring in some Minnesota guys Brewster wouldn't and we'll have a few pleasant surprises.
 


I have predicted that *MY* minnesota gophers will range from 5-7. So in my reality, the worst case scenario is 5 wins, which would be a push. I'll go for the over.
 

Sparlimb said:
Costa...I mean that: not a lot of depth this year + smaller freshmen class due to coach change + some kids probably transferring (there's always a few in a coaching change) = even less depth in year one. That's my worry. We probably have enough talent to win 3 of 4 non-conference games but not enough to compete well against fully manned B10 rosters...

Caveat: We know Coach Kill and staff are supposed to be good X's and O's guys. So it is possible we have more latent talent than we believe and these guys can bring it out. Just like Tubby did in year one on the hoops side. That, of course, is really hard to gauge, so we'll have to see. I'm always happy with bowl games and watch them no matter how crappy.
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It's not going to be easy, but I believe Coach Kill is a winner & will find a way to whip this current bunch into shape.

My biggest concern is at safety where we're likely starting Christyn Lewis & James Manuel. I'm not even sure who the backups would be as I've heard Kenny Watkins may transfer.
 

I think it is easy to underestimate just how bad the coaching was under Brewster, particulary the line position coaching. We have some very good talent and if Kill & staff are as good as advertised the difference next year could be surprising. Over, and a low rated Bowl.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Who are you talking about? We still have 15 verbals according to Rivals. Also, none of our verbals has an offer from Eastern Michigan.
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You may have noticed the question mark after Eastern (?). That indicates I was unsure if it was Eastern or some other Michigan directional University. It's actually Vann the LB from Ohio who last week mentioned he was looking around now & was thinking Central Michigan (Central, Eastern, same crap.) now instead. I saw today on GI.com (Makes a great Christmas present) that he's got a visit to UConn scheduled now, so who knows but the point being he's likely gone.
 

ncgo4 said:
I think it is easy to underestimate just how bad the coaching was under Brewster, particulary the line position coaching. We have some very good talent and if Kill & staff are as good as advertised the difference next year could be surprising. Over, and a low rated Bowl.
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I thought Tim Davis did a really good job with the OL. Huge strides from '09 to '10 imo.
 

Costa Rican Gopher said:
It's not going to be easy, but I believe Coach Kill is a winner & will find a way to whip this current bunch into shape.

My biggest concern is at safety where we're likely starting Christyn Lewis & James Manuel. I'm not even sure who the backups would be as I've heard Kenny Watkins may transfer.
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REALLY! Check your source. Very unlikely to occur. Watkins will compete for a starting spot in the Spring is my bet. BANK IT.
 


Over - 7 wins. Brewster would have gotten at least 5 wins .
 


This thread looks similar to the ones at the beginning of this year. I'm taking the under, but I hope Caoch Kill proves me wrong.
 

Stargenes said:
REALLY! Check your source. Very unlikely to occur. Watkins will compete for a starting spot in the Spring is my bet. BANK IT.
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Great to hear & I hope I'm wrong because I really liked his film coming out of High School, like the film I saw of he & his Father at TCF & sort of developed a recruit-crush on him.
 

I feel like five wins is realistic, but It's tough to tell considering all the unknowns. Chiefly: How will coach Kill's style, schemes, etc. transpose to MN?; and will Gray be able to lead the offense?

This team showed that by the end of the season it was capable of beating Big Ten teams, and not necessarily chumps either, two bowl bound Big Ten teams. Frankly, I'd like our chances in a lower tier bowl right now. We've got a ton of those guys coming back.

Me, I'm an eternal optimist, and I'm trying to temper that a bit. Based on what we saw to close out the season, I see three very winnable nonconference games. We were within a hairs breadth and a couple of asinine coaching decisions of beating Northwestern. We've proven we can beat Illinois and Iowa. Purdue and Michigan aren't exactly world-beaters right now.

Is there a decent chance that 'sconnie, Nebraska and Sparty will blow our doors off? Oh god yes. Will we beat all the teams we're capable of beating? Oh god no.

But I still think we can put together 5 wins. Maybe 6 if we get some good bounces. Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl here we come, amirite?
 

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