Official APR/GPA bowl thread

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Some guy

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This is a GPA bowl top 10 ranking thread.

If not enough teams qualify at 6 wins APR qualifies teams to compete with 5 wins.

I will track the top 10. A team gets removed from the top 10 when one of the following happens:
8th loss - this means they’ll be 4-8 or worse and not be eligible
6th win - this means they’ll not need a second source of qualifying


Current APR BOWL top 10
1) alabama 5-1
2) tie
Michigan 4-2 and North Carolina 2-3
4) tie
Clemson 3-3 and wake forest 4-2
6) Cincinnati 5-1
7) northwestern 4-2
8) tie
Air Force 1-5 and Minnesota 4-2
10) tie
Iowa state 5-2 and Wisconsin 2-4
 

Updated ranks:
1) Michigan 5-2 and north Carolina 2-4

3) Clemson 3-4 and wake forest 4-2

5) northwestern 5-2
6) Minnesota 5-2 and Air Force 2-5

8) Iowa state 5-2 and Wisconsin 2-5

10) Notre Dame 5-2
 

Updated Ranks:
1) North Carolina 2-5
2) Clemson 3-4 and wake forest 5-2

4) northwestern 5-3
5) Minnesota 5-3 and Air Force 2-5

7) Wisconsin 2-6 and Iowa state 5-3

9) Notre Dame 5-2

10) Kansas State 4-4
 

Currently ESPN FPI has 83 teams at projections of over 50% chance of 6 wins.

There are:
12 playoff teams
34 bowls - 68 teams
A 35th bowl for two FCS teams (celebration bowl).

This is 80 FBS teams

So currently there is projected surplus of 3 teams if espn FPI goes chalk.
Meaning this thread won’t matter.

But I also think ESPN FPi is broken it’s just the easiest to see a projection of 6 win teams.
For instance it projects 3-4 army to 6 wins but they’d have to get to 6 wins before the navy game. So they’d need to go 3-1 the next 4.
It projects 3-4 penn state to 6. But they still play Ohio state and Indiana. So assuming no upset they have to sweep the rest.
It projects Florida state as a 75% chance of 6 wins. I have my doubts.

So I’ll keep thread alive for now.


It has 83 teams with > 50% chance of 6 wins but 12 of them are projected between 5.5 and 5.9 so it’s a round up vs round down projection
 
Last edited:

Some guy said:
Updated Ranks:
1) North Carolina 2-5
2) Clemson 3-4 and wake forest 5-2

4) northwestern 5-3
5) Minnesota 5-3 and Air Force 2-5

7) Wisconsin 2-6 and Iowa state 5-3

9) Notre Dame 5-2

10) Kansas State 4-4
Click to expand...
1) North Carolina 3-5
2) Clemson 3-5
3) northwestern 5-3
4) Air Force 2-6
5) Wisconsin 2-6 and Iowa state 5-4

7) Kansas State 4-5, auburn 4-5, Florida state 4-4

10) Rice 4-5
 



Still 83 projected to bowl eligible but I still don’t buy it
 


Question Some. How many times has a five win team made it and what is the most five win teams in one season?
 




HitMeAgainIAmStillMoving said:
Question Some. How many times has a five win team made it and what is the most five win teams in one season?
Click to expand...
I don’t know the answer to the first one. I believe the second one is a trick question. There was a year it would’ve been 3 but there were two non eligible transition teams that got it FIRST so even though the answer was 3 the real answer was 1 (it happened to be the gophers). So I’m going to say it was 3 even though the year it was 3 it was 1.
 







1) north carolina 4-6
2) Clemson 5-5
3) northwestern 5-5
4) Air Force 3-7
5) Wisconsin 3-7
6) Kansas state 5-5 Florida state 5-5 auburn 4-7
9) rice 5-5

10) many teams tied
 



Some guy said:
84 teams projected for 6 wins
Click to expand...
There are already 64 eligible teams with 2 weeks to go. There are 25 teams with 5 wins right now. So not every bowl-eligible team is getting a bowl invite again this year.

It seems the trend of 5-7 teams with high APR getting invited to a bowl is a relic until more bowl games are created.

There are 136 FBS teams, with 10-12 more programs trying to join the FBS in the next 3-5 years. If the playoff is expanded, that list will definitely grow to at least 20-30 more programs trying to move-up.

There is going to need to be about 10 new bowl games, or 6-6/ 7-5 teams outside of the Power 4 conferences are just never going to get an invite.
 

Goldmember said:
There are already 64 eligible teams with 2 weeks to go. There are 25 teams with 5 wins right now. So not every bowl-eligible team is getting a bowl invite again this year.

It seems the trend of 5-7 teams with high APR getting invited to a bowl is a relic until more bowl games are created.

There are 136 FBS teams, with 10-12 more programs trying to join the FBS in the next 3-5 years. If the playoff is expanded, that list will definitely grow to at least 20-30 more programs trying to move-up.

There is going to need to be about 10 new bowl games, or 6-6/ 7-5 teams outside of the Power 4 conferences are just never going to get an invite.
Click to expand...
Disagree

84 teams projected for 80 spots

If Nebraska beats Penn state and Penn state beats Rutgers now there are 83

If Kentucky loses to both Louisville and Vanderbilt there are now 82

If Delaware loses to wake forest and UTEP there are 81

If Texas state loses to UL Monroe OR South Alabama there are 80

If Minnesota and Illinois beat northwestern 79

If Utah state loses to Fresno and Boise there are 78


There may not be a 5-7 team this year but to say it won’t happen ever again is not really mathematically accurate
 


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