In addition to everything else that's been discussed, here's more food for thought.
Let's say we're a 9-seed in the NCAA tourney. That means we'll likely play a team like Florida State, South Carolina, Texas, etc.; so sure, we could be one and done. And, who knows, maybe we could pull off that upset and draw Duke or UNC and really make some noise (far fetched as it is.)
--OR--
Let's say we make the NIT. We could draw Maryland, Miami (FL), USC, Creighton, NC State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, etc. in the first round. That, too, could be a one-and-done. So, we really can't even assume a long run in the NIT. There's enough balance in college basketball through the Top 100 teams that - the difference in quality between a team seeded 8th in the NCAA and a team seeded 3rd in the NIT is not that big at all. In fact, it literally could come down to one regular season outcome.
Therefore, I'd just as soon try my luck in the big dance. And, in my opinion, any other such thought is ludicrous - solely because there's no guarantee in either field.