Niko’s roster construction

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goldenboy said:
I was kind of hoping for 2 or 3 of the CSU players to follow Niko to MN. Not that we can’t land just as good transfers from elsewhere, but to bring familiarity with program and system. JCJ is the only one that knows what Niko expects and can be the role model for his teammates. Would have been nice to have one or two more.
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I think it hurt the chances of other guys following when CSU hired their assistant. If they had brought in someone completely new to the program, it's likely more guys transfer out.
 

Scottsdale Gopher said:
Based on his Colorado State teams, it's clear Niko does not value size for the sake of size.

Last season's CSU team had 6 players 6'8" or taller; two of those players redshirted and three were in the rotation, averaging a total of 42.1 MPG. Last season's Gopher team averaged 78.5 MPG from players 6'8" or taller.

The 2023-2024 team had only 2 players 6'8" or taller. They averaged a total of 28.9 MPG.

2022-23 had three such players who averaged a total of 47.4 minutes. The 2022-23 team is the second worst record he had at CSU, behind his first season.

During his tenure at Colorado State, the team was consistently in the bottom half of the conference in total rebounding and in the bottom three of offensive rebounding. The Gophers will not be using the Tubby Smith "dump and chase" offensive system under Medved.
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The issue is that he is now playing in the Big !0. He will have to learn that a big body is going to be needed.
 

I generally agree that the current roster is in need of a quality big, but I wanted to look further at the size of Niko's teams in comparison to the B1G. The table below shows the rotation minutes played for each B1G team last season for players 6'8" or taller. I added a row to show the B1G average and a row to show the average for CSU over the last three seasons.

A couple caveats: 1) Obviously 6'8" is arbitrary and the two teams that led the league in minutes had wings that were that tall. 2) I was forced into a few decisions about who to count as a rotation player -- in the case of the Gophers for example, I did not count Kadyn Betts.

There isn't a clear relationship between height and success in the conference (in this construct), but Niko will need to recruit taller players in order to approach the average size of players in B1G.

SchoolRotation MinutesPercentageRank
Illinois101.150.6%T7
Washington98.849.4%18
Michigan86.643.3%T2
Minnesota78.539.3%T12
Oregon77.939.0%T7
Indiana77.338.7%9
Maryland76.438.2%T2
UCLA72.936.5%T4
Iowa72.836.4%T12
B10 AVERAGE68.934.4%N/A
Rutgers67.533.8%11
Michigan State64.932.5%1
Nebraska63.731.9%T12
Purdue61.730.9%T4
Penn State59.629.8%17
Wisconsin56.328.2%T4
Ohio State49.324.7%10
Northwestern45.923.0%T12
CSU 2022-202540.220.1%N/A
USC28.314.2%T12
 

Scottsdale Gopher said:
I generally agree that the current roster is in need of a quality big, but I wanted to look further at the size of Niko's teams in comparison to the B1G. The table below shows the rotation minutes played for each B1G team last season for players 6'8" or taller. I added a row to show the B1G average and a row to show the average for CSU over the last three seasons.

A couple caveats: 1) Obviously 6'8" is arbitrary and the two teams that led the league in minutes had wings that were that tall. 2) I was forced into a few decisions about who to count as a rotation player -- in the case of the Gophers for example, I did not count Kadyn Betts.

There isn't a clear relationship between height and success in the conference (in this construct), but Niko will need to recruit taller players in order to approach the average size of players in B1G.

SchoolRotation MinutesPercentageRank
Illinois101.150.6%T7
Washington98.849.4%18
Michigan86.643.3%T2
Minnesota78.539.3%T12
Oregon77.939.0%T7
Indiana77.338.7%9
Maryland76.438.2%T2
UCLA72.936.5%T4
Iowa72.836.4%T12
B10 AVERAGE68.934.4%N/A
Rutgers67.533.8%11
Michigan State64.932.5%1
Nebraska63.731.9%T12
Purdue61.730.9%T4
Penn State59.629.8%17
Wisconsin56.328.2%T4
Ohio State49.324.7%10
Northwestern45.923.0%T12
CSU 2022-202540.220.1%N/A
USC28.314.2%T12
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Thanks for taking the time to do this. I was going to look into this at some point today, but I have been busy with work!
 

GophersInIowa said:
I think it hurt the chances of other guys following when CSU hired their assistant. If they had brought in someone completely new to the program, it's likely more guys transfer out.
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There was no one else Niko wanted other than Evans to follow here. Who else was a for sure high major player? Doesn't matter that the Asst Coach was hired.
 


Scottsdale Gopher said:
I generally agree that the current roster is in need of a quality big, but I wanted to look further at the size of Niko's teams in comparison to the B1G. The table below shows the rotation minutes played for each B1G team last season for players 6'8" or taller. I added a row to show the B1G average and a row to show the average for CSU over the last three seasons.

A couple caveats: 1) Obviously 6'8" is arbitrary and the two teams that led the league in minutes had wings that were that tall. 2) I was forced into a few decisions about who to count as a rotation player -- in the case of the Gophers for example, I did not count Kadyn Betts.

There isn't a clear relationship between height and success in the conference (in this construct), but Niko will need to recruit taller players in order to approach the average size of players in B1G.

SchoolRotation MinutesPercentageRank
Illinois101.150.6%T7
Washington98.849.4%18
Michigan86.643.3%T2
Minnesota78.539.3%T12
Oregon77.939.0%T7
Indiana77.338.7%9
Maryland76.438.2%T2
UCLA72.936.5%T4
Iowa72.836.4%T12
B10 AVERAGE68.934.4%N/A
Rutgers67.533.8%11
Michigan State64.932.5%1
Nebraska63.731.9%T12
Purdue61.730.9%T4
Penn State59.629.8%17
Wisconsin56.328.2%T4
Ohio State49.324.7%10
Northwestern45.923.0%T12
CSU 2022-202540.220.1%N/A
USC28.314.2%T12
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Thanks for doing this! According to College Basketball at Sports Reference, the Gophers had total player minutes of 6,526 over 32 games. If I drop everyone with minutes equal to Betts or lower, I get 6,411 total player minutes. If I take the minutes of Garcia, Fox, Frank Mitchell (even though he sure didn't look 6'8"), and Edmonds I get 2,386 player minutes. Dividing 2,386 by 6,411 I get a slightly smaller ratio of 37.2% for the Gophers.

Perhaps another way to do this would be to use some global measure of productivity (like WIN SHARES or Sports Reference's Game Scores) and see what percentage of those came from the "big men" vs. the shorter players. Of course, those measures tend to fall short when it comes to contributions that don't make the box score.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
Thanks for doing this! According to College Basketball at Sports Reference, the Gophers had total player minutes of 6,526 over 32 games. If I drop everyone with minutes equal to Betts or lower, I get 6,411 total player minutes. If I take the minutes of Garcia, Fox, Frank Mitchell (even though he sure didn't look 6'8"), and Edmonds I get 2,386 player minutes. Dividing 2,386 by 6,411 I get a slightly smaller ratio of 37.2% for the Gophers.

Perhaps another way to do this would be to use some global measure of productivity (like WIN SHARES or Sports Reference's Game Scores) and see what percentage of those came from the "big men" vs. the shorter players. Of course, those measures tend to fall short when it comes to contributions that don't make the box score.
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Yeah, your process was more precise than mine. I took average minutes played per Sports Reference for the players in my height criteria, then divided those totals by 200. This understates the total minutes for the season because it does not include any OT minutes. Since rotation players account for the overwhelming majority of OT minutes, my percentages will be slightly higher.

There's definitely an opportunity to expand the scope here, but I was mostly interested in whether Niko plays prototypical bigs. Clearly he doesn't. We'll see if that is principally a stylistic choice or a reflection of the caliber of player available in the Mountain West.

There remain questions and whispers about DG returning. If he did, I think they have enough bigs with him, JCJ, Vaihola, and Omot spotting some minutes at the 4. Of course that's a MASSIVE if.
 

Tucker32 said:
There was no one else Niko wanted other than Evans to follow here. Who else was a for sure high major player? Doesn't matter that the Asst Coach was hired.
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He's trying to fill an entire roster. Not every spot is going to be filled with a "for sure high major player". Maybe you're right that he didn't want anyone else but you're guessing.

The point is, if he did want other players it probably made it harder to get them to follow because CSU hired internally.
 

GophersInIowa said:
He's trying to fill an entire roster. Not every spot is going to be filled with a "for sure high major player". Maybe you're right that he didn't want anyone else but you're guessing.

The point is, if he did want other players it probably made it harder to get them to follow because CSU hired internally.
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Not guessing.
 



Scottsdale Gopher said:
There remain questions and whispers about DG returning. If he did, I think they have enough bigs with him, JCJ, Vaihola, and Omot spotting some minutes at the 4. Of course that's a MASSIVE if.
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As much as I liked Garcia, I really hope no player who has played 5 years already is allowed another year of eligibility.
 


A few short weeks ago, before Niko signed and Ben was dismissed at 2ish in the morning, a brilliant move, we had a roster made up of bailing wire and bubble gum wrappers. Today, we have enough players to play games. I could not be happier with the roster as it sits today. We still have 6 spaces that can be filled. Again, the possibilities are endless with who can fill them, and I can't wait to see how it turns out. I have drunk my Gopher Kool Aid, and I am feeling fine.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
If you're claiming to have some special, privileged knowledge, then you must explain why or there is no reason for any of us to believe you. Blowhards are a dime a dozen on the internet.
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I haven’t been a blowhard at all. I have shared some things here and there all the way back to Tubby’s time here. Don’t need your affirmations.
 



TwistingMyMelon said:
As much as I liked Garcia, I really hope no player who has played 5 years already is allowed another year of eligibility.
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I don't disagree with your take but that said, Garcia back for another year would be a massive boost for the 25-26 version of the Gophers and would fill a need on the current roster.
 

Scottsdale Gopher said:
I generally agree that the current roster is in need of a quality big, but I wanted to look further at the size of Niko's teams in comparison to the B1G. The table below shows the rotation minutes played for each B1G team last season for players 6'8" or taller. I added a row to show the B1G average and a row to show the average for CSU over the last three seasons.

A couple caveats: 1) Obviously 6'8" is arbitrary and the two teams that led the league in minutes had wings that were that tall. 2) I was forced into a few decisions about who to count as a rotation player -- in the case of the Gophers for example, I did not count Kadyn Betts.

There isn't a clear relationship between height and success in the conference (in this construct), but Niko will need to recruit taller players in order to approach the average size of players in B1G.

SchoolRotation MinutesPercentageRank
Illinois101.150.6%T7
Washington98.849.4%18
Michigan86.643.3%T2
Minnesota78.539.3%T12
Oregon77.939.0%T7
Indiana77.338.7%9
Maryland76.438.2%T2
UCLA72.936.5%T4
Iowa72.836.4%T12
B10 AVERAGE68.934.4%N/A
Rutgers67.533.8%11
Michigan State64.932.5%1
Nebraska63.731.9%T12
Purdue61.730.9%T4
Penn State59.629.8%17
Wisconsin56.328.2%T4
Ohio State49.324.7%10
Northwestern45.923.0%T12
CSU 2022-202540.220.1%N/A
USC28.314.2%T12
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After dissecting this for past 15 minutes, I thought "What kind of nerd puts this together??" :ROFLMAO: Ty!

My end thought is to average the rankings of above avg and below avg teams. to provide me a conclusion: so above avg height will get you an average conference ranking of 8.1 and below average would be 9.2. Basically, being taller is technically better as long as you're not Washington, who screwed this whole chart up.

1744918978842.png
 


MNVCGUY said:
I don't disagree with your take but that said, Garcia back for another year would be a massive boost for the 25-26 version of the Gophers and would fill a need on the current roster.
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Still don't agree. Enough is enough. There has to be an extensive market for entering freshmen, even at high majors, or the whole system is just a pro league by another name. Might as well not even require them to register for any classes.
 



TwistingMyMelon said:
Still don't agree. Enough is enough. There has to be an extensive market for entering freshmen, even at high majors, or the whole system is just a pro league by another name. Might as well not even require them to register for any classes.
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Welcome to the National Cash Athletic Association (NCAA).
 




TwistingMyMelon said:
Still don't agree. Enough is enough. There has to be an extensive market for entering freshmen, even at high majors, or the whole system is just a pro league by another name. Might as well not even require them to register for any classes.
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Um.... it's exactly what you describe. A pro league with an NCAA banner. And... very few of them go to class regularly. They're professional athletes. And there is way less room for entering freshmen. Better off to go mid-major and get some run.
 





I like RJ. A lot of his scoops are very vague though and a lot of the time the more vague they are the less likely they are to come to fruition. I think one of his a few weeks ago was about expecting a commitment from an unknown D2 player.

I'm not on the paid board so I don't have all the info.
 

Bobek said:
What’s the point of posting an online insult of Ryan James, especially attacking his intellect? Seems really unnecessary to me.
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You're right, I didn't mean it as a personal attack.

Just wish he had an editor and more broadly, wish we had much better local coverage of the program.

Ryan Burns on the football side just offers a far superior product.
 

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