NCAA Tournament Could it Happen?

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SplitDecision

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With MN sitting at 4-9 in conference, things are not looking great as a potential NCAA tournament team. Duh, Captain Obvious. However, the top of the BigTen has 5 solid NCAA teams that are not going to relinquish seeds in March Madness (Mich, Illinois, Purdue, Neb, and MSU). If the Big Ten receives 10 invitations, then the following 8 teams are vying for 5 spots in the tournament:
Wisconsin (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Iowa (8-4), Indiana (8-6, USC (7-6), OSU (7-6), Wash (4-9), MN (4-9).
I looked at each team's remaining games, and looked for glimmers of hope.

Washington has the most favorable remaining schedule, and could easily finish 5-2 down the stretch for 9-11 record.(Wins PSU,@MD, @Rut, USC, @Ore, Losses MN, Wisc)
Of the remaining teams, it is probable that USC finishes 2-5 for a 9-11 record (wins Ore, UCLA, losses @OSU, ILL, @UCLA, Neb, @Wash).

While UCLA and Iowa have difficult stretches and could finish 2-5 and 2-6 for conf records UCLA (11-9), Iowa (10-10).

A scenario could happen where the top 5 teams clearly get bids, adding Wisc (12-8), and UCLA (11-9) leaving four teams 10-10 (Iowa, Indiana, OSU, MN) for the remaining 3 NCAA bids.

Of course MN would have to finish 6-1 with games @Wash, @Ore, @Mich, Rut, UCLA, @Ind, NU.
If by some miracle Niko conjured up that stretch, MN would have a very high "Recent Form" intangible, have head-to-head wins, and the committee loves a plunky team with AP top25 wins, and would need to play well in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Its a lot, but I'm simple man. Hope is all I have. (Cue: "The Curse of the Were Rabbit" townsfolk)
 






SplitDecision said:
With MN sitting at 4-9 in conference, things are not looking great as a potential NCAA tournament team. Duh, Captain Obvious. However, the top of the BigTen has 5 solid NCAA teams that are not going to relinquish seeds in March Madness (Mich, Illinois, Purdue, Neb, and MSU). If the Big Ten receives 10 invitations, then the following 8 teams are vying for 5 spots in the tournament:
Wisconsin (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Iowa (8-4), Indiana (8-6, USC (7-6), OSU (7-6), Wash (4-9), MN (4-9).
I looked at each team's remaining games, and looked for glimmers of hope.

Washington has the most favorable remaining schedule, and could easily finish 5-2 down the stretch for 9-11 record.(Wins PSU,@MD, @Rut, USC, @Ore, Losses MN, Wisc)
Of the remaining teams, it is probable that USC finishes 2-5 for a 9-11 record (wins Ore, UCLA, losses @OSU, ILL, @UCLA, Neb, @Wash).

While UCLA and Iowa have difficult stretches and could finish 2-5 and 2-6 for conf records UCLA (11-9), Iowa (10-10).

A scenario could happen where the top 5 teams clearly get bids, adding Wisc (12-8), and UCLA (11-9) leaving four teams 10-10 (Iowa, Indiana, OSU, MN) for the remaining 3 NCAA bids.

Of course MN would have to finish 6-1 with games @Wash, @Ore, @Mich, Rut, UCLA, @Ind, NU.
If by some miracle Niko conjured up that stretch, MN would have a very high "Recent Form" intangible, have head-to-head wins, and the committee loves a plunky team with AP top25 wins, and would need to play well in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Its a lot, but I'm simple man. Hope is all I have. (Cue: "The Curse of the Were Rabbit" townsfolk)
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The committee doesn't look at conference record.

One of the stats they do look at is "wins above bubble", and that one doesn't look good for the Gophs, who currently sit at -3.7. The way this stat works, for example, is if the Gophs won at Michigan, they'd pick up 0.95 WAB; if they lose, they only drop 0.05. Conversely, they'll only get 0.10 for beating Rutgers - a team above the bubble is expected to beat the Scarlet Knights 90% of the time. If they lose that game, they lose 0.90 in WAB. The PSU and MD losses were WAB disasters.

While it would be extremely impressive, even sweeping the last 7 games (currently a 0.03% probability) still wouldn't get them above zero in WAB - there's 3.58 WAB available, so still -0.12. And being above zero doesn't mean you're getting in - there's currently 62 teams above zero, and those toward the end of the list will be bumped by mid-major auto-qualifiers.
 

formerlybis said:
The committee doesn't look at conference record.

One of the stats they do look at is "wins above bubble", and that one doesn't look good for the Gophs, who currently sit at -3.7. The way this stat works, for example, is if the Gophs won at Michigan, they'd pick up 0.95 WAB; if they lose, they only drop 0.05. Conversely, they'll only get 0.10 for beating Rutgers - a team above the bubble is expected to beat the Scarlet Knights 90% of the time. If they lose that game, they lose 0.90 in WAB. The PSU and MD losses were WAB disasters.

While it would be extremely impressive, even sweeping the last 7 games (currently a 0.03% probability) still wouldn't get them above zero in WAB - there's 3.58 WAB available, so still -0.12. And being above zero doesn't mean you're getting in - there's currently 62 teams above zero, and those toward the end of the list will be bumped by mid-major auto-qualifiers.
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Yes, there is that. But, if MN finishes 6-1, has a nice BT Tourney, I would put $1 that they make the NCAA tournament. Agree though that its a dream scenario. 🤷🏼‍♂️
 

There is a better chance that Parker Fox says Skiumah on the Kfan Power derp show. Parker is intimidated by the morning show but I believe in him.
 

Making a post season tournament might be possible but it won't be the NCAA Tournament.....this year......have a feeling Niko will have us in the NCAA tournament next year.
 









Likely our longest odds—yet still making the tournament—was 1989. We were 6-9 in conference play and beat NU; MSU & OSU (first Big Ten road win of the year) to end the season. The 2026 path is multiples of greater difficulty.
 

SplitDecision said:
With MN sitting at 4-9 in conference, things are not looking great as a potential NCAA tournament team. Duh, Captain Obvious. However, the top of the BigTen has 5 solid NCAA teams that are not going to relinquish seeds in March Madness (Mich, Illinois, Purdue, Neb, and MSU). If the Big Ten receives 10 invitations, then the following 8 teams are vying for 5 spots in the tournament:
Wisconsin (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Iowa (8-4), Indiana (8-6, USC (7-6), OSU (7-6), Wash (4-9), MN (4-9).
I looked at each team's remaining games, and looked for glimmers of hope.

Washington has the most favorable remaining schedule, and could easily finish 5-2 down the stretch for 9-11 record.(Wins PSU,@MD, @Rut, USC, @Ore, Losses MN, Wisc)
Of the remaining teams, it is probable that USC finishes 2-5 for a 9-11 record (wins Ore, UCLA, losses @OSU, ILL, @UCLA, Neb, @Wash).

While UCLA and Iowa have difficult stretches and could finish 2-5 and 2-6 for conf records UCLA (11-9), Iowa (10-10).

A scenario could happen where the top 5 teams clearly get bids, adding Wisc (12-8), and UCLA (11-9) leaving four teams 10-10 (Iowa, Indiana, OSU, MN) for the remaining 3 NCAA bids.

Of course MN would have to finish 6-1 with games @Wash, @Ore, @Mich, Rut, UCLA, @Ind, NU.
If by some miracle Niko conjured up that stretch, MN would have a very high "Recent Form" intangible, have head-to-head wins, and the committee loves a plunky team with AP top25 wins, and would need to play well in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Its a lot, but I'm simple man. Hope is all I have. (Cue: "The Curse of the Were Rabbit" townsfolk)
Click to expand...
It is on the female hoopers side 😃
 

I think we need to get to 20 wins, in order to do that we will need to win out and make it to Saturday of the BTT to feel safe about it. If we go 6-1 and get to the finals of the BTT, we may have enough quad one wins. Anything less and it's BTT title or bust, just too many non con loses, we beat all the cupcakes but literally lost to everyone we played with a pulse in non con
 

The Deliberate Stranger said:
I think we need to get to 20 wins, in order to do that we will need to win out and make it to Saturday of the BTT to feel safe about it. If we go 6-1 and get to the finals of the BTT, we may have enough quad one wins. Anything less and it's BTT title or bust, just too many non con loses, we beat all the cupcakes but literally lost to everyone we played with a pulse in non con
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About the same chance as me suiting up for the squad this season
 


The Deliberate Stranger said:
I think we need to get to 20 wins, in order to do that we will need to win out and make it to Saturday of the BTT to feel safe about it. If we go 6-1 and get to the finals of the BTT, we may have enough quad one wins. Anything less and it's BTT title or bust, just too many non con loses, we beat all the cupcakes but literally lost to everyone we played with a pulse in non con
Click to expand...
We’re BTT title or bust, no different than really hapless power 5 teams. In your scenario, assuming 2 losses to Michigan, we’d be respectable against Q1 but would be only .500 against Q2 and Q3. Would be a hell of a finish, but the NCAA claims to not reward strong finishes
 


stocker08 said:
Not a zero percent chance....but pretty close.
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dumb-and-dumber-lloyd.gif
 





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