NCAA Tournament Could it Happen?

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SplitDecision

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With MN sitting at 4-9 in conference, things are not looking great as a potential NCAA tournament team. Duh, Captain Obvious. However, the top of the BigTen has 5 solid NCAA teams that are not going to relinquish seeds in March Madness (Mich, Illinois, Purdue, Neb, and MSU). If the Big Ten receives 10 invitations, then the following 8 teams are vying for 5 spots in the tournament:
Wisconsin (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Iowa (8-4), Indiana (8-6, USC (7-6), OSU (7-6), Wash (4-9), MN (4-9).
I looked at each team's remaining games, and looked for glimmers of hope.

Washington has the most favorable remaining schedule, and could easily finish 5-2 down the stretch for 9-11 record.(Wins PSU,@MD, @Rut, USC, @Ore, Losses MN, Wisc)
Of the remaining teams, it is probable that USC finishes 2-5 for a 9-11 record (wins Ore, UCLA, losses @OSU, ILL, @UCLA, Neb, @Wash).

While UCLA and Iowa have difficult stretches and could finish 2-5 and 2-6 for conf records UCLA (11-9), Iowa (10-10).

A scenario could happen where the top 5 teams clearly get bids, adding Wisc (12-8), and UCLA (11-9) leaving four teams 10-10 (Iowa, Indiana, OSU, MN) for the remaining 3 NCAA bids.

Of course MN would have to finish 6-1 with games @Wash, @Ore, @Mich, Rut, UCLA, @Ind, NU.
If by some miracle Niko conjured up that stretch, MN would have a very high "Recent Form" intangible, have head-to-head wins, and the committee loves a plunky team with AP top25 wins, and would need to play well in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Its a lot, but I'm simple man. Hope is all I have. (Cue: "The Curse of the Were Rabbit" townsfolk)
 






SplitDecision said:
With MN sitting at 4-9 in conference, things are not looking great as a potential NCAA tournament team. Duh, Captain Obvious. However, the top of the BigTen has 5 solid NCAA teams that are not going to relinquish seeds in March Madness (Mich, Illinois, Purdue, Neb, and MSU). If the Big Ten receives 10 invitations, then the following 8 teams are vying for 5 spots in the tournament:
Wisconsin (9-4), UCLA (9-4), Iowa (8-4), Indiana (8-6, USC (7-6), OSU (7-6), Wash (4-9), MN (4-9).
I looked at each team's remaining games, and looked for glimmers of hope.

Washington has the most favorable remaining schedule, and could easily finish 5-2 down the stretch for 9-11 record.(Wins PSU,@MD, @Rut, USC, @Ore, Losses MN, Wisc)
Of the remaining teams, it is probable that USC finishes 2-5 for a 9-11 record (wins Ore, UCLA, losses @OSU, ILL, @UCLA, Neb, @Wash).

While UCLA and Iowa have difficult stretches and could finish 2-5 and 2-6 for conf records UCLA (11-9), Iowa (10-10).

A scenario could happen where the top 5 teams clearly get bids, adding Wisc (12-8), and UCLA (11-9) leaving four teams 10-10 (Iowa, Indiana, OSU, MN) for the remaining 3 NCAA bids.

Of course MN would have to finish 6-1 with games @Wash, @Ore, @Mich, Rut, UCLA, @Ind, NU.
If by some miracle Niko conjured up that stretch, MN would have a very high "Recent Form" intangible, have head-to-head wins, and the committee loves a plunky team with AP top25 wins, and would need to play well in the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.

Its a lot, but I'm simple man. Hope is all I have. (Cue: "The Curse of the Were Rabbit" townsfolk)
Click to expand...
The committee doesn't look at conference record.

One of the stats they do look at is "wins above bubble", and that one doesn't look good for the Gophs, who currently sit at -3.7. The way this stat works, for example, is if the Gophs won at Michigan, they'd pick up 0.95 WAB; if they lose, they only drop 0.05. Conversely, they'll only get 0.10 for beating Rutgers - a team above the bubble is expected to beat the Scarlet Knights 90% of the time. If they lose that game, they lose 0.90 in WAB. The PSU and MD losses were WAB disasters.

While it would be extremely impressive, even sweeping the last 7 games (currently a 0.03% probability) still wouldn't get them above zero in WAB - there's 3.58 WAB available, so still -0.12. And being above zero doesn't mean you're getting in - there's currently 62 teams above zero, and those toward the end of the list will be bumped by mid-major auto-qualifiers.
 

formerlybis said:
The committee doesn't look at conference record.

One of the stats they do look at is "wins above bubble", and that one doesn't look good for the Gophs, who currently sit at -3.7. The way this stat works, for example, is if the Gophs won at Michigan, they'd pick up 0.95 WAB; if they lose, they only drop 0.05. Conversely, they'll only get 0.10 for beating Rutgers - a team above the bubble is expected to beat the Scarlet Knights 90% of the time. If they lose that game, they lose 0.90 in WAB. The PSU and MD losses were WAB disasters.

While it would be extremely impressive, even sweeping the last 7 games (currently a 0.03% probability) still wouldn't get them above zero in WAB - there's 3.58 WAB available, so still -0.12. And being above zero doesn't mean you're getting in - there's currently 62 teams above zero, and those toward the end of the list will be bumped by mid-major auto-qualifiers.
Click to expand...
Yes, there is that. But, if MN finishes 6-1, has a nice BT Tourney, I would put $1 that they make the NCAA tournament. Agree though that its a dream scenario. 🤷🏼‍♂️
 

There is a better chance that Parker Fox says Skiumah on the Kfan Power derp show. Parker is intimidated by the morning show but I believe in him.
 

Making a post season tournament might be possible but it won't be the NCAA Tournament.....this year......have a feeling Niko will have us in the NCAA tournament next year.
 



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