Michigan @ Minnesota Betting Line

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A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Betting lines are weird.

I'm sure it's just math and a little inside info but I don't know how you account for the fact that the top teams in the B1G will sometimes take the lead and RUTM to just grind it out vs another B1G team. They end up with 2 score wins or something where it's also pretty clear they could have made it 3 or 4 if they wanted to.

Just depends on the coach's whim / what they want that day.

But I'm guessing the guys who know, know ...
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No, they don't. That's why the line keeps moving. All they care about is getting approximately even money on both sides of this and they just collect basically a fee for administering this wager.

If too many people start taking Michigan to cover the spread, they'll raise the spread to get money on the other side.

But they have just as much info about whether Michigan will run it up or back off the gas, as you or I do. And they really don't care either way, as they'll have even bets on both sides.
 

Governor Sibley said:
Is PJ's goal this week to beat Michigan?

Or is it to get into Iowa week in the best condition possible?

Betting lines might tell you what people are thinking.
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Well seeing as how we have a bye after the Michigan game my guess is Fleck will go crazy and actually try to win the game as opposed to resting all the starters to keep them healthy for Iowa......

lol....what a strange comment.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Well seeing as how we have a bye after the Michigan game my guess is Fleck will go crazy and actually try to win the game as opposed to resting all the starters to keep them healthy for Iowa......

lol....what a strange comment.
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It's a comment about how bettors will perceive Fleck.
 


Gophergrandpa said:
It gives me hope! If you-know-who can do it, why can’t the Gophers? OK … I’m sorry. Please forget that I spoke of the unspeakable. 😏
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Winning one as a heavy underdog would be a nice way to put some of those games where we lost as double digit favorites in the back of our minds. "These things happen every now and then" is a much more palatable explanation when we can make those things happen to someone else too. By my count, the three biggest point spreads in games where the underdog won during Flecks tenure, were all ones where we were on the wrong side of it. Be nice to put a surprising win on that list.
 

GopherTheJugular said:
No, they don't. That's why the line keeps moving. All they care about is getting approximately even money on both sides of this and they just collect basically a fee for administering this wager.

If too many people start taking Michigan to cover the spread, they'll raise the spread to get money on the other side.

But they have just as much info about whether Michigan will run it up or back off the gas, as you or I do. And they really don't care either way, as they'll have even bets on both sides.
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This is not always true. The books will take a position on a game if they think it's favorable.
 

Some Day...Maybe said:
After Fleck’s first few years, I never would have thought Fleck would be an almost 20 point underdog at home in year 7. Listening to him in the off season you would have never thought that either.
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This is the sentiment that's hit me the hardest this season. I never believed 2019 was going to be the absolute ceiling, but now I'm worried.

Regardless, I'm ready to storm this bitch if they pull it off.
 

SHGopher said:
A win for the Gophers would be getting to 10 points, which other teams haven't been able to do.
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Yup. I feel like predicting a 30-14 loss is rather kind to the Gophers this year.
 



It’ll be 10-7 at the half and finish the pt total at 43. Yuk. The only bet I’d make is MN and the 20 pts.
 

Might as well go for the 69 yard field goal.

And flee flicker.

65% run the rest of the time with the two headed monster in the Gophers backfield. People will complain. How else do you have a chance. Try to sustain drives and keep the ball. Only chance. With a couple explosives built in.
 





Too many people make statements about coaches who are 7-8 years into a job, and how this or that shouldn't be happening at this point. Such people don't understand the game, really. Take a look at Darrell Royal at Texas from about the mid-60s until Bellard came up with the wishbone. He was slumping to 6-4 and people were calling for his scalp. They would have missed a couple Nattys if they had their way. Have you seen Bear Bryant's records at Bama from 69-70? Same thing. Both coaches were well into their careers. Yes, the 'Bone saved Bryant as well as desegregation. He went on to win some Nattys as well. You can have a well-established program but your records will still vary. The program may be at a point, but your teams are different from year to year. You have rebuilding years just like anyone. John McKay struggled at USC for 2-3 seasons as well in the middle of his tenure. Woody Hayes had some down seasons from time to time. It happens to the best of schools, and it also happens at Minnesota. Why do I feel like this post is useless....
 



metrolax said:
Too many people make statements about coaches who are 7-8 years into a job, and how this or that shouldn't be happening at this point. Such people don't understand the game, really. Take a look at Darrell Royal at Texas from about the mid-60s until Bellard came up with the wishbone. He was slumping to 6-4 and people were calling for his scalp. They would have missed a couple Nattys if they had their way. Have you seen Bear Bryant's records at Bama from 69-70? Same thing. Both coaches were well into their careers. Yes, the 'Bone saved Bryant as well as desegregation. He went on to win some Nattys as well. You can have a well-established program but your records will still vary. The program may be at a point, but your teams are different from year to year. You have rebuilding years just like anyone. John McKay struggled at USC for 2-3 seasons as well in the middle of his tenure. Woody Hayes had some down seasons from time to time. It happens to the best of schools, and it also happens at Minnesota. Why do I feel like this post is useless....
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Well said and believe me there are a lot of others that see things the same way.

Way back when Fleck started he had that graph that showed ups and downs with a general line trending up. The panic level going on around here right now is ridiculous. The funny part is that had we not fallen apart in the 4th quarter against Northwestern we would be sitting at 4-1 with the only loss being on the road to a top 15 team.

This feels like a year that is going to be a little bit of a step back....but that doesn't mean you blow it up and start over the way some are calling for. Thankfully it is just a small very loud group that seems to feel this way. Most get that you aren't going to win 9 games every year at most places and down seasons are going to happen. Just have to keep one down season from turning into 2/3/4.....
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Winning one as a heavy underdog would be a nice way to put some of those games where we lost as double digit favorites in the back of our minds. "These things happen every now and then" is a much more palatable explanation when we can make those things happen to someone else too. By my count, the three biggest point spreads in games where the underdog won during Flecks tenure, were all ones where we were on the wrong side of it. Be nice to put a surprising win on that list.
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It might not be top 3, but I believe the Gophers were 10 point underdogs at Madison in 2018. Not trying to be disagreeable, just pointing out that (I think) we have one victory where the opponent was a double digit favorite.
 

60's Guy said:
I am not a sports bettor but do people really bet $1600 to win $100??
odds
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If I had $1600 in my account available to bet, I'd put it on that bet and make an easy hundred.

More so though, I think they put the number that high so that people don't bet on Michigan to win straight-up, no spread.
 

GopherTheJugular said:
If I had $1600 in my account available to bet, I'd put it on that bet and make an easy hundred.

More so though, I think they put the number that high so that people don't bet on Michigan to win straight-up, no spread.
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This game seems like you'd pretty safe. But if you do it 10X to make your grand....somewhere you are going to get burned and be down a grand or more or less.
 

60's Guy said:
This game seems like you'd pretty safe. But if you do it 10X to make your grand....somewhere you are going to get burned and be down a grand or more or less.
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Very true. While not wagering that kind of money, I have had some "sure things" go awry. I've learned to

1. Avoid rivalry games. Even though they might seem lopsided going in, the underdog surprises more than you'd like.

2. Avoid betting if there was a recent coaching change. (Thankfully I was lazy and didn't pull the trigger on taking TCU against Coach Prime in week 1.)

Those two, I think, are the biggest ways to lose on what should be an easy money line (no spread).
 

Governor Sibley said:
Is PJ's goal this week to beat Michigan?

Or is it to get into Iowa week in the best condition possible?

Betting lines might tell you what people are thinking.
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If his goal is to NOT beat Michigan, we have serious problems. Betting lines are based on the book prospecting that Michigan will roll not that PJ will shorten the oars because we play Iowa next week.
 

Go and watch the Bowling Green-MI game. Weak tea. Skiumah!
 

GopherTheJugular said:
If I had $1600 in my account available to bet, I'd put it on that bet and make an easy hundred.

More so though, I think they put the number that high so that people don't bet on Michigan to win straight-up, no spread.
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Or...you could take that $1600 and put a show bet on Up to the Mark at Keenland this Saturday in the Turf Mile and make more than $100. That's what I'd do.

(Actually, what I would probably do is go to the window with that bet in mind, and then at the last second change my mind and do a trifecta box on 3 horses - looking for a huuuuge payout, then watch two of them hit the board and the other come in fourth. It's happened before. Too often. 🤦‍♂️)
 

GopherTheJugular said:
If I had $1600 in my account available to bet, I'd put it on that bet and make an easy hundred.

More so though, I think they put the number that high so that people don't bet on Michigan to win straight-up, no spread.
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People do this all the time and it’s publicized all over. Ask any shark and this is not your way to make money long term with the risk-reward. Just look at TCU-Colorado. It happens. And you have to hit a lot of serial bets just to double your money while risking more than you’ve won every week
 

metrolax said:
Too many people make statements about coaches who are 7-8 years into a job, and how this or that shouldn't be happening at this point. Such people don't understand the game, really. Take a look at Darrell Royal at Texas from about the mid-60s until Bellard came up with the wishbone. He was slumping to 6-4 and people were calling for his scalp. They would have missed a couple Nattys if they had their way. Have you seen Bear Bryant's records at Bama from 69-70? Same thing. Both coaches were well into their careers. Yes, the 'Bone saved Bryant as well as desegregation. He went on to win some Nattys as well. You can have a well-established program but your records will still vary. The program may be at a point, but your teams are different from year to year. You have rebuilding years just like anyone. John McKay struggled at USC for 2-3 seasons as well in the middle of his tenure. Woody Hayes had some down seasons from time to time. It happens to the best of schools, and it also happens at Minnesota. Why do I feel like this post is useless....
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Yup.
I said in another thread, the northwestern loss was unacceptable in the way it went down. But not because it was year 7. Equally unacceptable in year 1
 

GopherTheJugular said:
It might not be top 3, but I believe the Gophers were 10 point underdogs at Madison in 2018. Not trying to be disagreeable, just pointing out that (I think) we have one victory where the opponent was a double digit favorite.
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That sounds right. I wasn't sure if one of the @Wisconsin games was that big of a spread.

Either way, have a chance to add to the list Saturday!
 

I bet money to lose $$$ but gain happiness.

Every game is worth a certain amount in my opinion.

When we play Purdue, that will be a close game. I want to win but if we lose to Purdue at Purdue , it is what it is in a season where we are 3-2.

Now, if we beat Iowa let's say, well that would be huge considering we haven't beat them in years.

So, my betting strategy is I may bet $100 on Purdue to win. If they do, I make a little $$ to make up for the paid of losing. If we win, hey, I paid $100 to be happy. Well worth it.

If we play Iowa, I will put $500 on Iowa to win. If they do, at least I made money having to watch us lose to them. If we win, well, that is easily worth $500 in my opinion. It would be like paying $500 to go watch a George Strait concert for 3 hours. The entertainment was worth the price.

Been betting this way for years.
 

Sorry if this was already asked:

how much would I win on a $100 bet parlay Gophers win and Vikings win?? :cool:
 

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