Media Prediction Thread: Minnesota at Michigan State

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Did a quick spin across a number Spartan message boards and most chatter still looking back at the loss to the Huskies and very little about Saturday's matchup with the Gophers.

When the Gophers are mentioned, pretty good confidence they can slow or even stop Mo and leave it up to Tanner to put up points with the passing game.

For sure the team in Spartan Green and White is focused on Saturday, but interesting the fans are mostly dismissing us...

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IceBoxGopher said:
Fan Duel’s prediction is Michigan State winning 28-23
It's fairly shocking to see Minnesota as the road favorite here. After all, the Golden Gophers have lost five straight games against the Spartans, with the latest loss — a 30-27 final score — taking place in 2017. Keeping that in mind, I expect that Michigan State will get the win on Saturday.
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I will never understand reasoning like this. Why would the fact that the U has lost the last 5 against MSU have any baring at all on 2022? It is one thing when you are looking at matchups that involve players that are still on the team and were active in both games. But once you get beyond a year or two the previous results have no connection at all to the teams current situation.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I will never understand reasoning like this. Why would the fact that the U has lost the last 5 against MSU have any baring at all on 2022?
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It is completely reasonable to think this way.

After all, this 5 game streak goes back to 2010 when Tim Brewster was the head coach. 100% relevant to the game this Saturday. /s
 

MNVCGUY said:
I will never understand reasoning like this. Why would the fact that the U has lost the last 5 against MSU have any baring at all on 2022? It is one thing when you are looking at matchups that involve players that are still on the team and were active in both games. But once you get beyond a year or two the previous results have no connection at all to the teams current situation.
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They even say the last time they played was 2017. I'm sure nothing has changed in that time for either team though /s
 

Bleacher Report has the Spartans winning 31-28
Fun fact: Minnesota has scored 20 offensive touchdowns and has allowed a grand total of 17 points. With a healthy Mo Ibrahim back and leading the rushing attack, the Golden Gophers have run roughshod through the extremely easy portion of their schedule.


Michigan State's front seven is solid, though. It's the Spartans secondary that leaves an awful lot to be desired, and Minnesota has not been anything close to prolific through the air dating back to the start of 2020. Michigan State holds Minnesota under 200 rushing yards and escapes with the home victory.
 


IceBoxGopher said:
Fan Duel’s prediction is Michigan State winning 28-23
It's fairly shocking to see Minnesota as the road favorite here. After all, the Golden Gophers have lost five straight games against the Spartans, with the latest loss — a 30-27 final score — taking place in 2017. Keeping that in mind, I expect that Michigan State will get the win on Saturday.
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Elite analysis. Michigan State beat MN by 3 pts 5 years ago, with a completely different team and HC, so OBVIOUSLY they should be the favorite in this one.
 

If I understand the Sagarin system correctly, it puts MSU as a 1 point favorite (actually a 0.66 point favorite) when you factor in the 3 points for home field.
 

IceBoxGopher said:
“It's the Spartans secondary that leaves an awful lot to be desired, and Minnesota has not been anything close to prolific through the air dating back to the start of 2020.”
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You don’t need to show how “prolific” you are passing when you can run for 250+ yards a game.
 

Everyone who picks the Spartans is using old/flawed logic due to not having played MN in so long. I'm more than confident with a victory, and not that close.
 




MNVCGUY said:
I will never understand reasoning like this. Why would the fact that the U has lost the last 5 against MSU have any baring at all on 2022? It is one thing when you are looking at matchups that involve players that are still on the team and were active in both games. But once you get beyond a year or two the previous results have no connection at all to the teams current situation.
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Ask Scott Frost...
 

On B1G Today, Anthony Herron and Pat Forde preview MN vs MSU, along with a discussion about how far Colorado has fallen as a program:

 

College Football News has Minnesota edging Michigan State, 31-27
Minnesota isn’t screwing up.

That’s the biggest takeaway from the easy first three games – the team is sharp even though it doesn’t have to be. There have been just two turnovers and ten penalties in the three games, and it’s not going to start making the big mistakes in a game like this.

Michigan State will play better than it did in Seattle, but Minnesota will continue to dominate the time of possession battle – it’s holding the ball for a nation-leading 40 minutes per game so far – and it’ll survive a tough fight with a late, grinding drive to close it out.
 




Athlon Sports is predicting a 30-16 Minnesota victory
While Minnesota will likely feel the impact of Autman-Bell's absence early on, it feels like the Golden Gophers will, by and large, be able to operate normally on offense. The same can't be said for Michigan State's attack, however.

Minnesota appears to have a clear advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and the statistics back it up. The Spartans also are coming off of a bad loss on the road to Washington where they got exposed in a number of areas. Barring a significant turnaround, especially on defense, look for the visiting Gophers to stay undefeated with a fairly comfortable win in their Big Ten opener.
 


Lansing State Journal chimes in:

Prediction​

The Gophers are 3-point favorites, which, given last week’s MSU performance and the Gophers’ 3-0 start, is somewhat understandable. But that’s a line based on faith and the luck of the schedule. Because if MSU last week had played at home against Colorado (which might be the worst team in a power-five conference), they might also be 3-0, with all the good vibes Minnesota has. It’s tough to pick MSU after what we just saw. But, at home, after being humbled, I think the Spartans put together a focused performance. And I don’t think the Gophers’ passing game is built to hurt MSU the same way Washington’s was.

Make it: MSU 30, Minnesota 27

www.lansingstatejournal.com

Michigan State football vs. Minnesota: 5 determining factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup with the Gophers and makes his pick.
www.lansingstatejournal.com

Go Gophers!!
 

CBS Sports:

Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan has barely been touched through three games. He's been sacked only once, and the Golden Gophers are allowing pressure on just 16.7% of dropbacks, per TruMedia and Pro Football Focus data. That is tied for fifth-best in the country, and it's likely unsustainable in the Big Ten. Minnesota's opponents have been Western Illinois, Colorado and New Mexico State. That's an FCS team and two of the worst teams in the FBS.

The Michigan State pass defense showed last week in a 39-28 loss at Washington that the demons of 2021 are still alive. However, Minnesota's passing attack isn't nearly as explosive as Washington's and its offensive line will be tested in a far more significant way. This will also be the first road game of the season for the Golden Gophers, and Michigan State should be able to hold serve at home against an untested opponent. Pick: Michigan State (+3)
 

Prediction​

The Gophers are 3-point favorites, which, given last week’s MSU performance and the Gophers’ 3-0 start, is somewhat understandable. But that’s a line based on faith and the luck of the schedule. Because if MSU last week had played at home against Colorado (which might be the worst team in a power-five conference), they might also be 3-0, with all the good vibes Minnesota has. It’s tough to pick MSU after what we just saw. But, at home, after being humbled, I think the Spartans put together a focused performance. And I don’t think the Gophers’ passing game is built to hurt MSU the same way Washington’s was.

Make it: MSU 30, Minnesota 27

www.freep.com

Michigan State football vs. Minnesota: 5 determining factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup with the Gophers and makes his pick.
www.freep.com
 

MNVCGUY said:
I will never understand reasoning like this. Why would the fact that the U has lost the last 5 against MSU have any baring at all on 2022? It is one thing when you are looking at matchups that involve players that are still on the team and were active in both games. But once you get beyond a year or two the previous results have no connection at all to the teams current situation.
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You have a point. But if I had a couple hundred to lose it would be on Michigan State.
 

denguegopher said:
You have a point. But if I had a couple hundred to lose it would be on Michigan State.
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There are plenty of reasons to pick MSU, this could be a very even game....but using the past as any sort of justification for what is going to happen this week is just lazy as there is zero connection between those past games and the current teams.
 

MNVCGUY said:
There are plenty of reasons to pick MSU, this could be a very even game....but using the past as any sort of justification for what is going to happen this week is just lazy as there is zero connection between those past games and the current teams.
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Oh, I hope that I'm wrong. I don't know if I get the "lazy" part of your argument. Yes, the players and coaches have changed, but I think that there might be a lingering psychological component. These guys are in their late teens and early (or mid 20's) now and assuming that they have followed college football since they have seen that Michigan State usually beats Minnesota, or is at least regarded as the stronger team most years. So, and I know this is not a slam dunk argument, but its still Minnesota vs. Michigan St and the Gophers are likely to lose to them. If there is a psychological advantage I hope that it has attenuated because they have not played a lot lately and things have been pretty even in the last 11 games http://www.winsipedia.com/minnesota/vs/michigan-state. But I still think that its there in some small measure. So if you think that this is a lazy view of the situation, its your right to have that opinion. Go Gophers!
 
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Most Underrated Games of Week 4: Minnesota at Michigan State

source: youtube.com/watch?v=JwC-P8UQAwY
 

If MSU scores more than 20 points I would be shocked. More likely 10. In Rossi we trust. Gophers will score at least 40. We will run the ball on them. Not just because Mo, but our OL is very good.
 

Here are the staff predictions at the Daily Gopher
GoAUpher has Minnesota winning 27-21: Unless MSU can turn around their defensive struggles in a single week, I have confidence that the Gophers offense can score (even minus CRAB).

GopherGuy05 is predicting a 27-24 Minnesota win: It will be a tight one but the Gopher defense does just enough and Tanner Morgan and the rest of the wide receivers step up to win a big one for CRAB.

GopherNation has Minnesota winning 31-23: I think MSU is not as good as advertised and the Gophers win this one. Spartans score late to make it a one-score game. The Gophers struggle to run the ball early but then find success through the air.

HipsterGopher is taking Minnesota, 42-34: This is the score from the Halloween night game from 2009. I don’t think our Gophers defense lets up this many points, but man that might have been the most fun game of the Brewster era.

Mowe0018 has Michigan State winning 24-21: I think we will win but I feel I must sacrifice my pick for the sake of reverse jinxing. I apologize but I can’t help but but be a little stitious when it comes to the Gophers.

UStreet is picking the Gophers, 35-17: See WSR’s justification

White Sped Receiver has Minnesota winning 31-17: Sparty’s secondary is not good and we’ll be able to take advantage of that even without CRAB. But their offensive line is even worse and that’s going to be the key. Their fat kids on offense are trash.

WildCatToo is predicting a 24-17 Minnesota win: I had originally thought this would be a loss for the Gophers, but three weeks in, it feels like these teams are going in opposite directions, and that’s a good development for Minnesota.

ZipsOfAkron has the Spartans winning 24-17: So you’re telling me that Minnesota is favored … heading to a rare destination … against a competent foe ... in a season where people are brimming with confidence? Come on, people, remember your training!
 

Here are the staff predictions at The Only Colors (Michigan State SB Nation)
Ryan O’Bleness has Michigan State winning 31-27: Michigan State matches up well against a run-first Minnesota team (although Mohamed Ibrahim is a lot to handle) and gets the bounce-back win at home. Michigan State has actually won eight games in a row at Spartan Stadium going back to 2021. Minnesota keeps it close throughout, but the defense has a much better showing and the Spartans earn a tough win.

Zach Manning has Michigan State winning 24-23: This one is going to be close. Luckily for Michigan State, Tanner Morgan isn’t as electric in the passing game as Michael Penix Jr. Where the Golden Gophers do shine is in the running game, which plays into the MSU defenses strength.

Minnesota is my pick to win the Big Ten West, so this is a good measuring stick for the Spartans to see where they stack up with the rest of the conference. Tucker has been pretty solid after losses with Michigan State, and I think Thorne and the offense do enough to edge out a win.

Kevin Knight has the Spartans winning 34-28: Minnesota has too great of a running back in Mohamed Ibrahim to be contained fully on offense. However, the lack of a potent passing game will benefit Michigan State in this one as the Spartans look to rebound from a tough road loss and open Big Ten play with a bang.

Paul Fanson is predicting a 31-24 Michigan State win: For the second week in row, my computer picks the Spartans in an upset. But, I think that it is on to something this time. First, Minnesota prefers more of a ground-based attack (as one would expect from Gophers). Fortunately, Michigan State’s strength on defense is stopping the run.

Second, I was impressed by how Payton Thorne rose to the occasion and almost put the Spartans on his back last weekend in Seattle. While it didn’t work out last time, Thorne will have the benefit of the home crowd this week and one more game of experience. I think that could be the difference.

Brad LaPlante has Michigan State winning 35-31: Minnesota has a good team. But like Michigan State before Washington, the Gophers haven’t proved anything against weak competition. History says Michigan State wins, but I really like this spread. An underdog in a game they should easily win? Give me Sparty.

Brendan Moore has Michigan State winning 28-24: Minnesota has been able to bully teams at the line of scrimmage this season. Mo Ibrahim is a weapon at running back for the Gophers. Their passing game is unproven. Chris Autman-Bell’s unfortunate injury helps Michigan State’s chances as he was the only proven wide receiver on the Minnesota roster. The Gophers are not built to expose Michigan State’s secondary.

Michigan State’s offense should be able to score. Minnesota’s defense has only allowed 17 points this season. However, it has been against inferior opponents. The Spartans have the better, faster and more explosive athletes on the field. Michigan State will pick up a nice bounce-back win against a good Minnesota team.

Amani Godfrey is taking Michigan State 24-20: The Michigan State Spartans were dealt with a tough matchup last week in Seattle against the Washington Huskies. The Huskies own one of the most explosive passing attacks in all of college football this season and they had their way with the Spartans’ secondary last week.

Minnesota on the other hand will attempt to lean on its offensive line and establish a running game throughout the majority of Saturday’s contest, which should gift the Spartans’ defense some stops. Expect MSU quarterback Payton Thorne to build on his rather strong game against Washington last week and deliver some big throws in crunch time. As long as the Spartans keep the turnover count low, they should be in position to win this game in the fourth quarter.

Verbosedutch has Michigan State winning 31-27: Perhaps I’m a little bullish on Michigan State’s offense, maybe I’m not quite a believer in the Minnesota program (P.J. Fleck is 21-22 in B1G games), but I feel MSU is going to scrape by with a bounce-back win.

Minnesota does have an excellent run offense, but is now without its top wide receiver Chris Autman-Bell in a modest passing attack. If Jacob Slade and Jayden Reed can return, I think the Spartans can stymie the Gopher ground game while making enough big plays on the other side of the ball.

I’ll be looking at the Michigan State defensive personnel packages, if Aaron Brule is healthy enough, I am inclined to believe a 4-3-4 formation will be used considerably more to combat Minnesota’s preference of ground and pound.

Black Shoe Diaries (SB Nation-PennState) has Minnesota winning 31-27
This game would have been a lot more interesting if Washington hadn’t exposed Michigan State’s secondary for what it still is.

Hawkeyes Wire (USA Today) has Michigan State winning 28-21
How good are each of the teams in this matchup? That may be the biggest thing this matchup answers for us. Minnesota has not lost yet, but a slate of New Mexico State, Western Illinois, and Colorado hasn’t exactly tested the Golden Gophers.

Michigan State lost last to Washington last weekend in a hostile environment, but can likely rely on the experience of a big matchup. Michigan State at home in this one being Minnesota’s first test of the season may tell quite a lot.

A game that sees the Spartans run the ball well and Minnesota get reminded they should play a real team before Big Ten play begins.
 
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Just a gut feeling....but I think KC is going to dial up something special in the passing game. All these writeups doubting our passing game....understandable given the past 2 seasons but totally forgetting about 2019. Time to remind them that we can throw, we just don't because the running game is so dominant.
 

It is amazing how the MN offensive coordinator change is almost never mentioned when “experts” talk about Minnesota’s passing game.

It just goes to show how so many of these takes are badly lacking depth.

The other common assumption: MSU sucks against the pass so MN is playing into their hands assuming the Gophers will be run-first.

No consideration for the possibility that MN run game might be good enough regardless (like it was in recent seasons) to find success against defenses normally stout against the run.

I’m worried about the game and MSU might win. I just don’t think the shallow takes from many of these “experts” are very insightful.
 


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