Maybe This Is Actually a Lucky Season for the Gophers

[GopherGrit]

Correct. In two humiliating road losses (tOSU and Iowa) we were outscored 83-6 for negative 77 point differential. Thus, in our remaining seven games, we actually have a +31 point differential and a 6-1 record--an average point differential of essentially +5 per game. As you all know, the Gophs this year have won the tight games, every single one of them. Which is very un-PJish. Really, this is an incredibly resilient team, fighting to the end, when it is still in the game. But this young team, so far, ain't ready for prime time on the road against confident, high-end opponents. The point differential gets too big too quickly, and the young team's resilience collapses. Interesting to see how Oregon goes.

Agreed. I expect Oregon to be like Iowa and Ohio State, but as you say let's see

 

[Some guy]

Offense only had one turnover, which was meaningless as Cal punted immediately 3 and out after it.

Make the FG it's tied at 17.

Don't fumble the ball on punt return and they don't go up to 24 points. Who knows.

1) Special Teams
2) Defense
3) Offense

Agree to disagree

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Assuming no changes;

Home road the next few years:
2026
Home
Eastern Illinois
Akron
Mississippi state
Northwestern
Michigan
Iowa
UCLA

Road
Washington
Wisconsin
Purdue
Penn state
Indiana



2027 home
Lindenwood
San Jose State
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio state
Washington
Wisconsin


Road
Mississippi state
Iowa
Maryland
Nebraska
USC

2028 home
North Dakota
Bowling green
Cal
Iowa
Maryland
Nebraska
Oregon

Road
Michigan State
Ohio state
Rutgers
UCLA
Wisconsin




It’s odd. New big ten it’s harder to go 11-1 or 12-0. May actually be more consistently manageable to be thinking 10-2.
And 10-2 is the new 11-1 with the expanded playoff.
2027 looks like the toughest schedule to me but who knows by tthen.

Assuming PJ’s trend of significant to shocking road game underperformance is a trend, you hate to have Ohio State, Indiana and Illinois at home in 2027. Better to have the most challenging teams on the road (because we mask a poor road performance with a near certain loss anyway) and save for home games all the should wins or toss-ups. Impossible to run the table in home games in2027 (as we might actually do in 2025); we will need several road wins in 2027 to get to a good record. But the Gophs might be a good road team by then. Who knows?

 

[Some guy]

Assuming PJ’s tend of significant to shocking road game underperformance is a trend, you hate to have Ohio State, Indiana and Illinois at home in 2027. Makes it pretty tough to run the table in home games (as we might do in 2025); we will need several road wins in 2027 to get to a good record. But the Gophs might be a good road team by then. Who knows?

Agree
Iowas coach could have retired
USC may have fired their coach

Etc

 

[MNVCGUY]

Assuming PJ’s tend of significant to shocking road game underperformance is a trend, you hate to have Ohio State, Indiana and Illinois at home in 2027. Makes it pretty tough to run the table in home games (as we might do in 2025); we will need several road wins in 2027 to get to a good record. But the Gophs might be a good road team by then. Who knows?

We have been a pretty good road team under Fleck. (just road games no Neutral site)

2021 - 4-1
2022 - 3-2
2023 - 1-4
2024 - 3-2
Total - 11-9

So hopefully this year is more of a bad matchups vs. new trend in road games and we can get back to being solid on the road again in the future.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

We have been a pretty good road team under Fleck. (just road games no Neutral site)

2021 - 4-1
2022 - 3-2
2023 - 1-4
2024 - 3-2
Total - 11-9

So hopefully this year is more of a bad matchups vs. new trend in road games and we can get back to being solid on the road again in the future.

I agree. We seem to have a real unpreparedness/poor game plan issue this year in road games. But this hasn't been the case in many other years. Hopefully just a 2025 thing. Maybe we can shake it off with a decent effort at Oregon and a win at NWern.

 

[Some guy]

I agree. We seem to have a real unpreparedness/poor game plan issue this year in road games. But this hasn't been the case in many other years. Hopefully just a 2025 thing. Maybe we can shake it off with a decent effort at Oregon and a win at NWern.

Not sure I agree with your take

Against Iowa yes

But against Ohio state they were in the game until the scripted sets were done. The non scripted parts were blowout. That speaks to the opposite of what you just said.

Against Cal the team held the lead in the third quarter and made blunders on special teams.
Also played an awful two minute drill defensively at the end of the first half.

2/3 games it was more in game issues than preparedness issues, to me

 

[Whytetale]

With next year's tougher schedule, 2026 Big Ten Conference opponents: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, UCLA, Penn State, Purdue, Washington, and Wisconsin, I'll gladly take the wins of this season anyway they come. A win is never a bad thing.

 

[MNVCGUY]

With next year's tougher schedule, 2026 Big Ten Conference opponents: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, UCLA, Penn State, Purdue, Washington, and Wisconsin, I'll gladly take the wins of this season anyway they come. A win is never a bad thing.

Crazy part is that on paper that looks like a tougher conference schedule then this year but in this current era of college football you just never know.

Penn State and UCLA will be breaking in new coaching staffs (although UCLA may want to seriously consider keeping the interim coach).

Wisconsin might be breaking in a new staff
Ferentz is 70 so could retire any time
Cignetti could be lured away to one of the really high profile openings

And then there is all the player movement that we know is going to take place between the end of this current season and the start of the next one.

Looking to the future in college athletics has become a pretty pointless activity with all the change that happens on a year to year basis anymore.

 

[MaxyJR1]

With next year's tougher schedule, 2026 Big Ten Conference opponents: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern, UCLA, Penn State, Purdue, Washington, and Wisconsin, I'll gladly take the wins of this season anyway they come. A win is never a bad thing.

That's pretty tough. Wisconsin is playing 6 ranked opponents this year in Indiana, Michigan, tOSU, Oregon, Washington and Alabama.

Our schedule doesn't look that tough.
UCLA and Penn State will have new coaches and likely players.
Indiana will need to replace a lot of players again, but great coach.
Iowa will need to replace about 8 players on offense
Michigan likely really good.
Northwestern loses most of OL
Purdue likely better, but losing a ton a defense
Washington losing most on defense
Wisconsin could have a new coach so not sure what they look like.

Minnesota looks about as stable as anyone on the schedule, if not more at this point.

 

[A_Slab_of_Bacon]

Crazy part is that on paper that looks like a tougher conference schedule then this year but in this current era of college football you just never know.

Penn State and UCLA will be breaking in new coaching staffs (although UCLA may want to seriously consider keeping the interim coach).

Wisconsin might be breaking in a new staff
Ferentz is 70 so could retire any time
Cignetti could be lured away to one of the really high profile openings

And then there is all the player movement that we know is going to take place between the end of this current season and the start of the next one.

Looking to the future in college athletics has become a pretty pointless activity with all the change that happens on a year to year basis anymore.

Penn State still has the ability to straight out talent lesser teams and Cignetti could just suck suddenly but I doubt it too. Those two seem really speculative...

 

[MNVCGUY]

Penn State still has the ability to straight out talent lesser teams and Cignetti could just suck suddenly but I doubt it too. Those two seem really speculative...

If Cignetti stays put it is pretty safe to assume Indiana will be good again, especially if Mendoza stays in school another year. But if Cignetti leaves there would be no guarantee that Indiana would be able to maintain this level because historically they have really struggled to do so.

Don't get me wrong, on paper the Big Ten schedule next year is tougher and almost certainly will be, but was just pointing out that with the way things change year to year right now you never really know what a team is going to look like from one year to the next.