Maybe This Is Actually a Lucky Season for the Gophers

Donate To GopherHole
Gophergrandpa

Gophergrandpa

Well-known member
Joined
Oct 17, 2018
Messages
4,720
Reaction score
6,060
Points
113
Here is a way to think of the Gophers season that might make one think the team is charmed rather than deficient. Below I list five teams’ points scored, points allowed, points differential, and record in B1G conference play this season:

Wisconsin: 27–143, -116, 0-5
Michigan State: 124–213, -89, 0-6
Minnesota: 111–157, -46, 4-2
Purdue: 124–170, -46, 0-6
Penn State: 120–158, -38, 0-5

Puts a different spin in the season from the Gopher’s standpoint. Please, please, please, don’t lose to Wisconsin, which is having an historically bad year (playing a tough schedule).

NB: I did the math in my head after a long day; might be off a point here and there, but you get the point.
 
Last edited:

giphy.gif
 

I feel like this team has the kind of intangibles to make plays and act in crucial moments that can be the difference-maker in conference play. The 85-yard pass against Rutgers, the blocked kick and pick-six in the Purdue game and the heroics of the MSU game are all pretty foreign as most Gopher teams go. And then in the Nebraska game it all wonderfully came together. Football is a team sport, after all!!
 


Part of why I thought this season had a large upside even with a freshman QB was because if all these games at home were road and all these road games were home it would be very different.

If the gophers had all these road games at home:
Cal - win I think
Ohio State - loss
Iowa - loss
Oregon - loss
Northwestern - win I think
Northwestern State - win (this was never going to be a road game)
Buffalo - win (this was never going to be a road game)
4-3 at home

All these games are road:
@ rutgers
@ Purdue
@ Michigan State
@ Nebraska
@ Wisconsin

I think that team probably wins a road game but all of a sudden the ceiling was probably 6-7 wins this year instead of 9

Not going 7-0 at home vs that schedule
Not going 5-0 road vs tha schedule


With a great team, you may prefer the above schedule
With a growing team you prefer the one we got
 


I don't see how any Gopher fan can't conclude that already the home schedule has been lucky.

The Rutgers, Purdue, and Mich State games all easily could have been losses.

But they were wins. That's not your typical thing with Fleck.


Our tough(er) games this year just happen to all be on the road. Granted think whatever you want about Cal and if we "should have" won that game. I just don't think we were going to that night, with the 3-man rushes letting the Cal QB pick us apart.
 

GopherGrit said:
I don't see how any Gopher fan can't conclude that already the home schedule has been lucky.

The Rutgers, Purdue, and Mich State games all easily could have been losses.

But they were wins. That's not your typical thing with Fleck.


Our tough(er) games this year just happen to all be on the road. Granted think whatever you want about Cal and if we "should have" won that game. I just don't think we were going to that night, with the 3-man rushes letting the Cal QB pick us apart.
Click to expand...
I can’t believe in your one sentence about the cal game you seem to blame the defense when of the three units defense probably deserves the third most blame.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Here is a way to think of the Gophers season that might make one think the team is charmed rather than deficient. Below I list five teams’ points scored, points allowed, points differential, and record in B1G conference play this season:

Wisconsin: 27–143, -116, 0-5
Michigan State: 124–213, -89, 0-6
Minnesota: 111–157, -46, 4-2
Purdue: 124–170, -46, 0-6
Penn State: 120–158, -38, 0-5

Puts a different spin in the season from the Gooher standpoint. Please, please, please, don’t lose to Wisconsin, which is having an historically bad year (playing a tough schedule).

NB: I did the math in my head after a long day; might be off a point here and there, but you get the point.
Click to expand...
Only "critque" (and by no means a major one) would be this:

our points spread has been heavily skewed by those two losses. So if you take out the two worst (only, in our case) losses for each team, then what does the spread look like?
 

Some guy said:
I can’t believe in your one sentence about the cal game you seem to blame the defense when of the three units defense probably deserves the third most blame.
Click to expand...
Special teams and defense are to blame.

Offense did enough to win, if we hit field goals and don't fumble punt return.
 



Gophergrandpa said:
Here is a way to think of the Gophers season that might make one think the team is charmed rather than deficient. Below I list five teams’ points scored, points allowed, points differential, and record in B1G conference play this season:

Wisconsin: 27–143, -116, 0-5
Michigan State: 124–213, -89, 0-6
Minnesota: 111–157, -46, 4-2
Purdue: 124–170, -46, 0-6
Penn State: 120–158, -38, 0-5

Puts a different spin in the season from the Gooher standpoint. Please, please, please, don’t lose to Wisconsin, which is having an historically bad year (playing a tough schedule).

NB: I did the math in my head after a long day; might be off a point here and there, but you get the point.
Click to expand...
And we ain't PSU - hard to fathom.
 


Coach may not believe in momentum but there is a ton of data on luck coming out of this game.

BTW, completely agree with Coach on this...

“I want to thank all of our fans for sticking around, hanging there with us,” Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said of the announced crowd of 45,339. “If you happened to leave, you missed the heck of an ending. If I had said Drake Lindsey is going to run it in for a touchdown win in overtime, you probably would have taken the under.”

The Billds plus visiting MinneNoVa (and DarrenTheGreek too) were fully set for a bitter end.

Not this day. Always stay to the end. Always.
 

For a team breaking in a Freshman QB with almost no in game experience coming into the season we got very lucky in how the schedule shook out.

Some Guy laid it out well in terms of how different things could look if our home and road games were flipped this season. Given the makeup of this team and how things have played out, having our toughest games (Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa) on the road was a very fortunate break schedule wise.
 



BilldGopher said:
Coach may not believe in momentum but there is a ton of data on luck coming out of this game.

BTW, completely agree with Coach on this...

“I want to thank all of our fans for sticking around, hanging there with us,” Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said of the announced crowd of 45,339. “If you happened to leave, you missed the heck of an ending. If I had said Drake Lindsey is going to run it in for a touchdown win in overtime, you probably would have taken the under.”

The Billds plus visiting MinneNoVa (and DarrenTheGreek too) were fully set for a bitter end.

Not this day. Always stay to the end. Always.
Click to expand...

Years ago now we walked out of dreadful, dull Twins game sometime during the eighth inning before the boys came back from a (IIRC) 6 run deficit to pull it out. Heard it on the radio driving out 🤣

🤷‍♂️
 



BilldGopher said:
BTW, completely agree with Coach on this...

“I want to thank all of our fans for sticking around, hanging there with us,” Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said of the announced crowd of 45,339. “If you happened to leave, you missed the heck of an ending. If I had said Drake Lindsey is going to run it in for a touchdown win in overtime, you probably would have taken the under.”

The Billds plus visiting MinneNoVa (and DarrenTheGreek too) were fully set for a bitter end.

Not this day. Always stay to the end. Always.
Click to expand...
Oh I left when we were down 40 to Michigan back in the day, but no way was I leaving this one! I did jokingly take a shot at my old boss as I saw him heading for the exits early. Ski U Mah. Row the Boat. Go Gophers!
 


I agree that the home-away scheduling this season for the Gophers has been fortunate.

Of course, the other fortunate occurrence has been the unusually hapless performances of the bottom six teams this season.

The 18-team league in its current form has only two years of data and this one is not complete but some comparisons are striking.

Full conference record of bottom six teams (2024): 12-42; collective winning percentage: 22.2%

Conference record to date of bottom six teams (2025): 2-31; collective winning percentage: 6%

In 2024, the 13th, 14th, and 15th place teams all finished 3-6 in conference.

So far in 2025, the 13th place team is 1-4, the 14th is 1-5, and the 15th team is 0-5.
 

Some guy said:
I can’t believe in your one sentence about the cal game you seem to blame the defense when of the three units defense probably deserves the third most blame.
Click to expand...
I was at the Cal game. Defense was poor; Cal ran roughshod over us. Sliced and diced by a true Frosh QB. But Special Teams was beyond poor; it was epically bad and gave at least 10, maybe more to Cal gift-wrapped. The offense had its moments, but this was before PJ had taken the handcuffs off of Drake in terms of play calling. So much talent unused. It was a true three way plunge toward an unnecessary loss.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
I was at the Cal game. Defense was poor; Cal ran roughshod over us. Sliced and diced by a true Frosh QB. But Special Teams was beyond poor; it was epically bad and gave at least 10, maybe more to Cal gift-wrapped. The offense had its moments, but this was before PJ had taken the handcuffs off of Drake in terms of play calling. So much talent unused. It was a true three way plunge toward an unnecessary loss.
Click to expand...
Agree
Defense was maybe the most frustrating because they were on the field so much but I’d rather it:
1) special teams
2) offense
3) defense
 

GopherGrit said:
Only "critque" (and by no means a major one) would be this:

our points spread has been heavily skewed by those two losses. So if you take out the two worst (only, in our case) losses for each team, then what does the spread look like?
Click to expand...
Correct. In two humiliating road losses (tOSU and Iowa) we were outscored 83-6 for negative 77 point differential. Thus, in our remaining seven games, we actually have a +31 point differential and a 6-1 record--an average point differential of essentially +5 per game. As you all know, the Gophs this year have won the tight games, every single one of them. Which is very un-PJish. Really, this is an incredibly resilient team, fighting to the end, when it is still in the game. But this young team, so far, ain't ready for prime time on the road against confident, high-end opponents. The point differential gets too big too quickly, and the young team's resilience collapses. Interesting to see how Oregon goes.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Correct. In two humiliating road losses (tOSU and Iowa) we were outscored 83-6 for negative 77 point differential. Thus, in our remaining seven games, we actually have a +31 point differential and a 6-1 record--an average point differential of essentially +5 per game. As you all know, the Gophs this year have won the tight games, every single one of them. Which is very un-PJish. Really, this is an incredibly resilient team, fighting to the end, when it is still in the game. But this young team, so far, ain't ready for prime time on the road against confident, high-end opponents. The point differential gets too big too quickly, and the young team's resilience collapses. Interesting to see how Oregon goes.
Click to expand...
Coach certainly agrees with this opinion in spades.
 

I think the lack of running with any consistency is the very striking for a team that has won 2/3 of its games. How many carries have our backs had for -1 to +1 yards this season, seems like 90% to me. It is just disheartening to rarely see any push from the oline. If there is even a mediocre running game, the whole offense can open up a little and the defense stays off the field.

In keeping with the theme of the thread, I hope we have a little luck recruiting the offensive line for next season.
 

BilldGopher said:
Coach may not believe in momentum but there is a ton of data on luck coming out of this game.

BTW, completely agree with Coach on this...

“I want to thank all of our fans for sticking around, hanging there with us,” Gophers coach P.J. Fleck said of the announced crowd of 45,339. “If you happened to leave, you missed the heck of an ending. If I had said Drake Lindsey is going to run it in for a touchdown win in overtime, you probably would have taken the under.”

The Billds plus visiting MinneNoVa (and DarrenTheGreek too) were fully set for a bitter end.

Not this day. Always stay to the end. Always.
Click to expand...
I love your determination, but turning off the Iowa game at half-time and going to do yard work was the right call for my mental health. ;)
 

SeaBee_Gopher said:
I love your determination, but turning off the Iowa game at half-time and going to do yard work was the right call for my mental health. ;)
Click to expand...
Bild has a good thing going. He’s kinda a super fan in that he shows up early and stays late. He also gets behind the coaches whoever they are and pretty much whatever product they roll out on the field and shakes off getting repeatedly kicked in the nuts like we did against Iowa way better than most of us – – me on the far other end of the spectrum for sure. It’s good to have fans like him.
 


Gopherchase said:
Bild has a good thing going. He’s kinda a super fan in that he shows up early and stays late. He also gets behind the coaches whoever they are and pretty much whatever product they roll out on the field and shakes off getting repeatedly kicked in the nuts like we did against Iowa way better than most of us – – me on the far other end of the spectrum for sure. It’s good to have fans like him.
Click to expand...
Nut-kicked does not apply to Mrs. Billd but she doesn't like it either...
 

Assuming no changes;

Home road the next few years:
2026
Home
Eastern Illinois
Akron
Mississippi state
Northwestern
Michigan
Iowa
UCLA

Road
Washington
Wisconsin
Purdue
Penn state
Indiana



2027 home
Lindenwood
San Jose State
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio state
Washington
Wisconsin


Road
Mississippi state
Iowa
Maryland
Nebraska
USC

2028 home
North Dakota
Bowling green
Cal
Iowa
Maryland
Nebraska
Oregon

Road
Michigan State
Ohio state
Rutgers
UCLA
Wisconsin




It’s odd. New big ten it’s harder to go 11-1 or 12-0. May actually be more consistently manageable to be thinking 10-2.
And 10-2 is the new 11-1 with the expanded playoff.
2027 looks like the toughest schedule to me but who knows by tthen.
 

Some guy said:
Yeah. 335 yards and 14 points. 2 turnovers

The defense gave up 28 but faced multiple short fields.
Click to expand...
Offense only had one turnover, which was meaningless as Cal punted immediately 3 and out after it.

Make the FG it's tied at 17.

Don't fumble the ball on punt return and they don't go up to 24 points. Who knows.

1) Special Teams
2) Defense
3) Offense
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom