I would say there is next to a zero chance the Big Ten is losing money on Nebraska. First of all, Nebraska didn't even receive a full share of the pot in the first six years as part of the deal, so they didn't get the full $50m+ until 2018.
This alone is a good point, for looking backwards from now. I concede to you, on this point.
Looking backwards, because of the "vesting period" for Nebraska to start earning a full share, then it probably is less likely that the Big Ten "lost money" on Nebraska over the 2011-12 through 2019-20 fiscal years, in an absolute sense.
Secondly, the BTN gets most of its money based on cable TV subscribers. That is why Nebraska made way more sense than Iowa State for example. All subscribers in Iowa already are paying for BTN, because of the Hawkeyes. Iowa State presented no chance of increase in revenue, none.
No one in Nebraska (or New Jersey or Maryland) was paying for BTN before they joined. It is estimated each subscription nets between $.50-$2 per subscriber per month for the BTN. And, in Nebraska that was going to be on the basic tier, meaning it was likely closer to $2 per subscriber than $.50 per subscriber. So let's say it was netting the BTN a conservative $1 per month per subscriber in Nebraska (give or take). Let's estimate there are 1.5m cable TV subscribers in Nebraska. That would net the BTN about $1.5m per month and roughly $18 million per year generated from subscriptions in Nebraska. That doesn't count the subscription revenue from Dish Network or DirecTV. *These numbers are total ballpark and could be off by quite a bit, but if they are off, they are conservative and BTN is likely making more than the estimate presented here. So, the bottom line is Nebraska was invited because the BTN knew it would get money every month from every Nebraska person, period. It was a huge opportunity for revenue. Simply put, it is worth millions and millions. That also doesn't count the thousands of people in Nebraska, where Husker volleyball and baseball is huge, who pay $10 per month for the BTN+/Fox Sports app to watch those games.
Nebraska population is less than 2M. So there's almost zero chance that there are or even were 1.5M traditional pay TV accounts in the state. That's going to be much closer to the number of households, which I'm guessing is more like 500k or something along those lines.
Regardless, your point about Iowa State stands. It's highly unlikely that there were many, if any, traditional pay TV subscribers in Iowa that weren't already getting BTN included in the same bundle tier as ESPN/2.
Iowa St only would've been better than Nebraska in the sense of being more competitive on the football field (which is a sad, true reality at this point), much more competitive on the MBB court, and being a member of the academic powerhouse AAU organization, which Nebraska was kicked out of.
Then you add in increased ratings for football, which means potential increased ad revenue, and increased licensing revenue for the Big Ten through that, etc. That's a big chunk that Nebraska brings to the conference and why it was invited.
It was
not invited for the revenue that the Big Ten and BTN could generate out of the state of Nebraska. As you've shown, that revenue is certainly non-zero (of course), but relatively it's always going to be small, due to the small population size of Nebraska itself.
Nebraska was invited for two reasons: 1) to be (another) national championship contending football program, and 2) to attract national TV viewership to the Big Ten football product, both conference games and especially non-conference (post-season) games.
That is why they got the nod. And they have
failed miserably.
Bringing me to what my main point would be now: looking
forward, as Nebraska football is being flushed down the toilet in terms of on-field competitiveness, as national college football viewers think less and less about Nebraska football, as Nebraska MBB continues to be an absolute stinker (despite rabid fan support, begging Lincoln to give them a good team in
something that matters, and a brand new arena), then I don't think it's any stretch of the imagination that Nebraska is a net
taker from the Big Ten.
And the best point: what would've been the VAR of
Missouri, if we would've added them instead? Much larger state, many more in-state pay TV subscribers. They've turned out to be more competitive on the football field, and certainly more competitive on the court. And they are in the AAU.
We can only think about it for fun, at this point.
