Last 5 full seasons

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The bowl streak has helped a bit, but we've only had eight non-conference games against P5/4 teams, going 6-2. The majority of those wins have been built up in the Big Ten season which has certainly been nice.
 

RememberMurray said:
So, why don't you supply some 'context'? Please elaborate. I'm willing to listen.

As far as validation is concerned, it wouldn't take much time to fact-check these win numbers.
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FWIW - looking at the seasons in question: Gopher record (wins and losses) vs P4/P5 opponents / overall record / final ranking

2019: 8-2 / 11-2 /#10 Coaches- #10 AP
2021: 8-3 / 9-4 / not ranked (3 teams with 4 losses in top 25)
2022: 7-4 / 9-4 / not ranked (10 teams w/4 losses in top 25)
2023: 3-7 / 6-7 / not ranked
2024: 6-5 / 8-5 / not ranked
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total: 32-21 / 43-22

so looking at those seasons, 2022 looks on paper like they could have been ranked - but that Gopher team had a 3-game losing streak in October to fall to 4-3.

2021 - opened with a loss to OSU. won 2 games, then lost to Bowling Green, falling to 2-2. won 4 games to make it 6-2, then lost 2 in a row, falling to 6-4.

theory: it's not just how many games you win (or lose), it's when you win (or lose) them.

I don't think there's any conspiracy to keep the Gophers out of the ratings. if the Gophers want to be rated, they need to put together a 6-0, 7-0 type of start to the season. in 2019, they started the season 9-0, then lost 2 of next 3 games, but still finished #10 in the poll.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
FWIW - looking at the seasons in question: Gopher record (wins and losses) vs P4/P5 opponents / overall record / final ranking

2019: 8-2 / 11-2 /#10 Coaches- #10 AP
2021: 8-3 / 9-4 / not ranked (3 teams with 4 losses in top 25)
2022: 7-4 / 9-4 / not ranked (10 teams w/4 losses in top 25)
2023: 3-7 / 6-7 / not ranked
2024: 6-5 / 8-5 / not ranked
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total: 32-21 / 43-22

so looking at those seasons, 2022 looks on paper like they could have been ranked - but that Gopher team had a 3-game losing streak in October to fall to 4-3.

2021 - opened with a loss to OSU. won 2 games, then lost to Bowling Green, falling to 2-2. won 4 games to make it 6-2, then lost 2 in a row, falling to 6-4.

theory: it's not just how many games you win (or lose), it's when you win (or lose) them.

I don't think there's any conspiracy to keep the Gophers out of the ratings. if the Gophers want to be rated, they need to put together a 6-0, 7-0 type of start to the season. in 2019, they started the season 9-0, then lost 2 of next 3 games, but still finished #10 in the poll.
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Good information, SON.

I agree — I doubt there's any conspiracy per se. I do, however, think there is bias based on national perception. I think there's a 'perception barrier', if you will. Apparently, an 11-2 season ending in a #10 ranking, two 9-4 seasons and an 8-5 season are not enough to break through and gain the preseason flowers that other schools seem to enjoy annually.

Also: this is minor, but shouldn't 2019 be 9-2 / 11-2, rather than 8-2 / 11-2?
 

RememberMurray said:
Good information, SON.

I agree — I doubt there's any conspiracy per se. I do, however, think there is bias based on national perception. I think there's a 'perception barrier', if you will. Apparently, an 11-2 season ending in a #10 ranking, two 9-4 seasons and an 8-5 season are not enough to break through and gain the preseason flowers that other schools seem to enjoy annually.

Also: this is minor, but shouldn't 2019 be 9-2 / 11-2, rather than 8-2 / 11-2?
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2019 non-conf games were against South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They played 9 games vs P5 opponents in the B1G, and 1 Bowl game vs a P5 opponent for a total of 10 games vs P5 opponents, hence the 8-2 mark. this all started with a chart showing P4/5 wins.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
2019 non-conf games were against South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. They played 9 games vs P5 opponents in the B1G, and 1 Bowl game vs a P5 opponent for a total of 10 games vs P5 opponents, hence the 8-2 mark. this all started with a chart showing P4/5 wins.
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You're right, I missed that.
 


2019 - Gophers went 3-0 vs G5 and 3-0 vs Power 5, got ranked, won two more, reached #8 before losing at Iowa. Finished at #10.
2020 - Gophers were ranked #21 in the preseason but immediately lost big to Michigan and had a bad year. Bye bye ranking.
2021 - Gophers got ranked #20 after going 6-2 (including a loss to Bowling Green) but immediately lost to Illinois. Bye bye ranking.
2022 - Gophers got ranked #21 after going 2-0 vs G5 and 2-0 vs Power 5 and immediately lost to a mediocre Purdue team and went on a losing streak. Bye bye ranking.
2023 - no ranking. bad season
2024 - no ranking. didn't string together enough wins at the right time.

There is no conspiracy here. The Gophers were ranked when they deserved it and even when they didn't (2020) but 2019 was the only year where they followed up a ranking with a win. They choked away all other chances.

They won't be ranked going into next year with a 8-5 record this year and a recruiting class that is perceived by pundits to be mediocre (I think recruit rankings are way more of a reputation issue than season rankings). The Gophs probably get ranked next year if they go 4-0 headed into the Ohio State game.
 

I keep going back to the information contained in the original post on this thread. I consider myself to be an optimistic fan, but even I found those numbers to be surprising.

I often read here on Gopher Hole that Minnesota under Fleck is a 'mid-level' program, but the original post on this thread clearly paints a different picture. That is, unless a team tied for 12th nationally in wins is to be considered 'mid-level'.

Rather than 'mid-level', maybe it's time we consider Minnesota to be Top 15-level?

The other part of this is the NIL story, which is equally fascinating and well laid-out in another thread here on Gopher Hole. A solid return on investment, indeed!
 

RememberMurray said:
I keep going back to the information contained in the original post on this thread. I consider myself to be an optimistic fan, but even I found those numbers to be surprising.

I often read here on Gopher Hole that Minnesota under Fleck is a 'mid-level' program, but the original post on this thread clearly paints a different picture. That is, unless a team tied for 12th nationally in wins is to be considered 'mid-level'.

Rather than 'mid-level', maybe it's time we consider Minnesota to be Top 15-level?

The other part of this is the NIL story, which is equally fascinating and well laid-out in another thread here on Gopher Hole. A solid return on investment, indeed!
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You seem to think these numbers offer good news messages. I think it’s the opposite. In only one year since PJ has been here has he been ranked in the top 25 at the end of the year? Is that correct? We’ve shit the bed at inopportune times year after year. We are solidly mediocre and PJ still has to change his best to get to where any of us should be more satisfied. Seems like on the other thread most people are giving a B minus or thereabouts for how PJ has done overall I think that is just about right; and I and I would guess most everyone else would give him an A in the off the field stuff so to get to a B- overall he still has a ways to go on game day. I will say the games were more fun this year and I do appreciate that.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Nope. Take a look at the schedules since 2021 and tell me where the Gophers should have been ranked where they weren't. I think they got ranked in 2021 before the Illinois game then lost. In 2022, I believe they got ranked after smashing MSU then lost to Purdue. In 2024, they would have been ranked if not for losing at freaking Rutgers. They have just been inconsistent and hadn't had a breakout year since 2019 to attract any pre-season rankings.
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This is the right instinct. It is hard to find a single week from 2021-24 when the Gophers should have been ranked when they were unranked. I could find only 1 week in 2021 where I thought they probably should have been ranked. That's it.

In 2024, if my quick check is right, the Gophers did not receive a single AP vote. Suspect that may change in the final poll with another PJ bowl victory, but not enough to get ranked.

In 2023, the Gophers received votes early on, then lost to North Carolina and Northwestern, and then no more votes.

In 2022, the Gophers went 4-0, to earn a 21 AP rank, the only week they have been ranked since the 2019 season in the AP poll. The 11 cumulative ranked weeks since 2019 is 10 in the 2019 season, and one in 2022. The Gophers were on the cusp of getting ranked late in the 2022 season, but stealing defeat from the jaws of victory against Iowa ended that.

In 2021, the Gophers were on the brink of getting ranked, having clawed back from the Bowling Green debacle, only to lose to Illinois and Iowa. Before losing to Illinois, the Gophers were 6-2, and appeared in the College Football Playoff ranking, and probably should have been in the AP poll that week. But they then lost to Illinois and Iowa. Three victories to end the year, including beating 6-win West Virginia, brought the Gophers to a high-water for the season of # 28 in AP poll votes.
 



Gopherchase said:
You seem to think these numbers offer good news messages.
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Yes... I do think that the Gophers ranking 12th in wins nationally over the last 5 seasons is good.

Gopherchase said:
I think it’s the opposite. In only one year since PJ has been here has he been ranked in the top 25 at the end of the year? Is that correct? We’ve shit the bed at inopportune times year after year. We are solidly mediocre and PJ still has to change his best to get to where any of us should be more satisfied. Seems like on the other thread most people are giving a B minus or thereabouts for how PJ has done overall I think that is just about right; and I and I would guess most everyone else would give him an A in the off the field stuff so to get to a B- overall he still has a ways to go on game day. I will say the games were more fun this year and I do appreciate that.
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To each his own.
Cheers.
 

RememberMurray said:
For Minnesota to have been ranked in only 11 weeks while compiling that impressive record is a bit of a head-scratcher, to say the least.
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Well, it's like this. Prior to the season, the media people scan the list of teams. When they get to Minnesota, they say to themselves "Nah. I doubt it and I don't want to be embarrassed if I pick them, nobody else does, and they flub it." So, they start off the season unranked. Then, the first time they lose those same people say "It was good that I didn't rank them." I think we had a couple of one-week rankings since 2019 but were immediately removed when we lost.
 





Pretending 2020 doesn’t exists undermines the story here. The Gophers great 2019 season gave them credibility for 2020, and the Gophers were ranked # 19 in the 2020 preseason, their highest preseason ranking since 1969. So the Gophers got their respect, but then laid an egg out of the gate in the screwed up Covid year. The 2020 season rightly gave them no credibility for a preseason 2021 ranking.

Starting in 2021, the Gophers have ended their seasons with dog-doo bowl opponents doing nothing to justify being ranked preseason the following year.
 

2024 beat Rutgers, make a field goal against NC
2023 don’t screw up Northworstern, Illinois
2022 show up against Purdue
2021 earn a W with either Illinois or Iowa
2019 Beat Iowa and the trajectory would have changed dramatically

Win 7 of those above and Gophers would be around Michigan and Notre Dame. The rankings would follow.

Not much room for error, but looking at it that way doesn’t seem completely unrealistic. Every one of those games were winnable.
 



MaxyJR1 said:
Correct. We lose the wrong games and those keep us out of the polls and CCG in the past.

Rutgers killed momentum towards a possible ranking late this year.
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More like the latter middle of the season. They actually finished the regular season fairly strong by winning 3 of their last 4 games.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I found this interesting

View attachment 35281
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I just cross checked a couple of the Big Ten teams. I don't think this is an accurate list.

Gophers have 32, so that appears accurate.

However, I have Iowa at 36 (chart says 32), Ohio State at 46 (chart says 43), Michigan at 45 (chart says 38, wtf) and Penn State at 39 (chart says 35). Those are all wrong.

I must be calculating wrong, or they must be calculating wrong.

I mean Michigan made three straight playoffs and they say only 38 wins? How?

Maybe I'm missing something....which is entirely possible.
 
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If the list is accurate, it's interesting. Obviously you want to win the games, but this seems to just point out what a missed opportunity the last 5 years have been. We've only been ranked for 11 weeks and I am guessing the vast majority of those were in 2019. I think this shows just how weak the B1G West was during that time period. In non conference power 4/5 games we've got to play a bad Colorado team twice and all our bowl wins (outside of 2019) against power 4/5 teams have been with unranked foes. Put all of this together and I would guess we have one of the weakest SOS on that list.

I do think there is some truth to the inherent bias with the rankings that starts with the preseason. If you get ranked before the season starts there's a buffer for those teams and a barrier to the unranked teams as they need those ranked teams to lose (or if ranked high enough lose twice) for there to be a spot in the top 25. That makes it much more difficult for a team that isn't perceived to be good to rack up a bunch of weeks in the top 25. If Minnesota starts 4-0, that might only get them to be #23 or so and then they drop the next one to fall to 4-1 and be right back out.
 

tjgopher said:
I just cross checked a couple of the Big Ten teams. I don't think this is an accurate list.

Gophers have 32, so that appears accurate.

However, I have Iowa at 36 (chart says 32), Ohio State at 46 (chart says 43), Michigan at 45 (chart says 38, wtf) and Penn State at 39 (chart says 35). Those are all wrong.

I must be calculating wrong, or they must be calculating wrong.

I mean Michigan made three straight playoffs and they say only 38 wins? How?

Maybe I'm missing something....which is entirely possible.
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You're not wrong. The list is. Way wrong in fact.

Michigan off by 7 wins PSU and Iowa by 4 wins apiece.
 

After next year we can just say last 5 years and the COVID and 11-2 season drop off.
2021-2024

2021 Tied for 5th of 14
2022 Tied for 5th of 14
2023 Tied for 8th of 14
2024 Tied for 7th of 18

Overall 32-20 (.615)
Conference 19-17 (.528)
24-19 vs P4 Teams (.558)
Top half of the league and 4 straight bowl appearances and wins.
 
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All of the people saying the list is wrong are considering it a list of power conference wins specifically, right? And no, I'm not volunteering to fact check it for accuracy
 


Here is the B1G win % all B1G games over the last 4 year or since COVID. Included USC/Oregon/UCLA/Wash vs B1G teams and each other since COVID and playoffs/conference championship games. (2021-2024)

1. Michigan .872
2. tOSU .864
3. Oregon .789
4. Penn St. .703
5. Iowa .658
6. Minnesota .528
7. Washington .524
8. Wisconsin .500
9. Illinois .500
10. UCLA .438
11. Michigan St. .395
12. USC .358
13. Maryland .333
14. Purdue .324
15. Indiana .306
16. Rutgers .278
17. Nebraska .278
18. Northwestern .250
 

Ah, damn I checked the Gophers and found it to be accurate so assumed the rest was. But apparently not. My bad everyone.
 

In poking around Heatherman to Miami story:

PJ Fleck's winning percentage at Minnesota with and without COVID: .598/.611

Miami's winning percentage since leaving the JV Big East in 2004 with/without COVID: .598/.592

Cristobol's winning percentage at Miami: .579

Miami is one of those teams this story was all about. Consistently ranked at least once during the season 15 of the past 21 years but with similar results as Minnesota.
 
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IceBoxGopher said:
The bowl streak has helped a bit, but we've only had eight non-conference games against P5/4 teams, going 6-2. The majority of those wins have been built up in the Big Ten season which has certainly been nice.
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8-2. Wins: 2017 Oregon State (P5 at the time) 2018 Georgia Tech, 2019 Auburn, 2021 Colorado and West Virginia. 2022 Colorado and Syracuse 2024 VA Tech. Losses UNC in 2023 and 2024. Also beat a 12-2 Fresno team in 2018
 

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