FarmerClone,
Please, allow me to explain my perspective by example of how I see my team and our place in the conference. It is easier that way to demonstrate the way I think, and it is to show I am not cooking up thoughts and logic in order to carry out this argument in my favor as our argument is perhaps inconsequential to what's happening out in reality.
Our biggest problems are guard plays and perimeter shooting. They are inconsistent and sub par comparing to those of the second tier Big 10 teams we have to compete with. We do have talent, athleticism, defense, depth, etc. But, like many others, I believe guard plays are the soul of college basketball, and we lack that. I have not seen real evidence for the improvement in the aforementioned areas or the degree of improvement necessary to beat the second tier teams consistently. So, I don’t buy into a rather inflated optimism -- I seriously hope I am wrong, though -- based on the rhetoric of “all key members returning and improving.” Fortunately, Illinois has lost Meacham, Frazier, and some key supporting players although they have new additions. Based on that, my prediction has consistently been “5th in the conference ahead of Illinois and a marginal top 25 finish” although I am hoping for finishing 4 in the conference and a legit top 25. Once we solidify the backcourt, which I hope will come into fruition in a year or so, we will be truly competitive. That is how my thinking goes.
As for your team, you have a beast in Craig Brackins. But, ISU has been in disarray when it comes to guard plays and perimeter shooting. Improvement in guard plays is not easily acquired. It takes time as it requires maturity in skill, court vision, decision making, etc. ISU indeed added two shooting guards and Gilstrap, a Juco transfer. I think Gilstrap is your best bet to relieve the trouble in perimeter shooting, but Juco transfers are not always meaningful contributors in the first year (he has one year of eligibility, I heard). So, your improvement in the aforementioned areas may be limited or not significant enough to beat your competitors consistently -- like the problem we have. Also, ISU’s recruiting class into the season is overall worse than those of the competitors.
The rest of the third tier of Big 12, I expect, would be Nebraska, Baylor, and Texas A&M. The Aggies are sort of a borderline case as they are not as strong and balanced as the second tier teams, but they look better and more balance than the other third tier teams at this point – even after losing Elonu and Carter. A very good recruiting class to boot, as well.
Nebraska is a different story. They lost some key players and added a pool of decent talent including three Juco transfers. Their backcourt will be pesky again though not good enough to win as many games as they did last season, I suspect. Since it is not easy for Juco transfers to make adjustments to fit into a more structured system, the Huskers are indeed a game for ISU this season unless their young frontcourt players are beginning to show some maturity. If the frontcourt has some improvement with the addition of the two new players, then they will be too much for ISU.
Baylor is an odd team. They could be a second tier team last season; then, they imploded in the conference season. However, as demonstrated in the conference tourney and the NIT, they had a very capable backcourt. Though they lost Jerrells, the remaining key members of the backcourt will pose a serious problem to ISU. Good news is they also lost Rogers and his inside production. They have a very good recruiting class. But, I doubt there is anyone in the roster who can fill the hole inside. Otherwise, they could have been a second tier team.
So, this is what I see. As shown last season, Brackins alone cannot do it. ISU definitely need to improve backcourt and perimeter shooting required to have a realistic chance to be in the mix with the Aggies, the Husker, and the Bears. Othewise, ISU may finish as they did last season. However, the Huskers have new comers and still young guys to carry the frontcourt duties. Although their guard plays will be pesky, they are susceptible. The powerful backcourt of Baylor may be too much for ISU even if they cannot find a man who can truly replace Kevin Rogers. But, they cannot find a meaningful addition in the paint, they can be beaten. Realistically speaking, I think ISU can take over one of those teams. The other more optimistic scenarios do not sound as realistic to me. Hence, 9th in the conference and below 100…
But again, that is just my opinion, and I do think your prediction is a good possibility.
I know you have an agenda here to push for the series between ISU and U. I think you know where I stand. And, I see deterioration of ISU after this season from losing Brackins. So, we need not continue this discussion, in my opinion.
BTW, I am a very minority voice in this forum. Although I do not have many posts, I was an active member about ten years ago and sort of know how the forum works. I am sure a majority of ppl here do not care what I say, let alone liking what I say. In some sense, I may be a good talk partner for your agenda since I am often frowned upon and against the series (enemy of my eneny stuff). But, you may be better off with more knowledgeable, upstanding, likeable members whom you can find in abundance here. I only resurfaced to argue about some scheduling issues. Since I am done with it, I am submerging again.
So…. Good luck to you.
