Is It Realistic to Move On From Johnson This Year?

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I agree it sounds like Henley is gone. What I don't understand is if he is leaving why play/start him? I wonder if he is going to Louisville also!
 

cjbfbp said:
Why do you say that?
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Ryan James and someone else speculated as much on a podcast today and said Henley / Evans AAU coach was upset he wasn't playing more etc
 

howeda7 said:
Pitino would have been fired after that season if we'd had an AD in place and Coyle all but said so when he was hired. Granted that was bad both on and off court. That team also was generally far more competitive than this one is prior to the suspensions though.
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Correct. Unlike this team, that team showed improvement throughout the year. I actually predicted the Maryland win. They would have finished really strong on the court if not for the scandal happening. Because of the way that season ended, some of us were not surprised by the turnaround the next year.

No one can see that type of turnaround coming next year based on their play to end his season. The only hope is for a Vincent Grier type situation and an out of nowhere turnaround like in 04-05.
 

skiumah1 said:
Vastly difference circumstances. Pitino had 25 wins in his first year
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School record and the NIT Championship in 2014 (first season) and in 2017 B10 Coach of the Year.
skiumah1 said:
and 18 in his 2nd. We came in ranked Top 20 I believe in his 3rd year, then scandal and injury ruined that.

We don't have that type of situation here.
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howeda7 said:
Ryan James and someone else speculated as much on a podcast today and said Henley / Evans AAU coach was upset he wasn't playing more etc
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He's playing a hell of a lot more on this team (at least recently) than he would be playing on the overwhelming majority of P6 teams. I looked at CA 247 rankings for last year. Nebraska took 2 California freshman (one was ranked slightly below Henley and the other was ranked comfortably ahead of him); one of those players plays less than Henley and the other doesn't play at all. Ole' Miss and Colorado each took a freshman ranked slightly below him and they don't play at all.
 

bobmartinfan said:
I agree it sounds like Henley is gone. What I don't understand is if he is leaving why play/start him? I wonder if he is going to Louisville also!
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Why? He's playing more here than he likely would at any equivalent school. Louisville is having even a worse season than us.
 

skiumah1 said:
Ok so we were just a bad team that year.
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Yes, we were just a bad team. We upset Maryland and beat 1 conference win Rutgers. We did have at least one player who could shoot on that team, though (Joey King).
 

Well, just to speculate - if the U did fire Johnson or somehow convinced him to "resign" - does hiring a new coach change the NIL situation?

From what Ryan James is saying, Evans likes Johnson, but he backed out because of NIL - and apparently because of pressure from his AAU coach and family members over NIL.

So, when you're hiring a new coach, do you need to ask him if he knows any rich dudes who can throw a few million $$ into the hat for NIL?

because you can hire the best coach in the world, but without a good reason for top recruits to choose the Gophers ($$$$$$), does it really move the needle?
 



Let's face it. This basketball program has been neglected for a long time. The antiquated arena, the hopeful but inexperienced coach hires, the AD's seeming indifference, the non-existent NIL money. You can't lay that ALL on Ben Johnson. Still, SOMETHING needs to happen to put some life back into Dinkytown.
My two fixes. 1) Announce plans for the building of a new, on-campus basketball arena. Hire a design firm like Ryan or JLG to draw it up. If it takes 3-5 years to build, well, it's something to look forward to anyway. 2) Follow the hockey program and build a homegrown culture, recruiting almost exclusively from Minnesota. Hell, if you're going to lose every game, why not at least give local kids a stage for their talents. We can all support that.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Well, just to speculate - if the U did fire Johnson or somehow convinced him to "resign" - does hiring a new coach change the NIL situation?

From what Ryan James is saying, Evans likes Johnson, but he backed out because of NIL - and apparently because of pressure from his AAU coach and family members over NIL.

So, when you're hiring a new coach, do you need to ask him if he knows any rich dudes who can throw a few million $$ into the hat for NIL?

because you can hire the best coach in the world, but without a good reason for top recruits to choose the Gophers ($$$$$$), does it really move the needle?
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We aren't going to be getting top recruits at this point especially when NIL is involved. Exactly why we need a coach that has proven they can build a program and get more out of less. We all knew a coach like that was needed before this hire, yet here we are. There has to be someone, somewhere that can win here.
 

When Coyle looks at the renewal rate for tickets and the dreadful numbers, doesn't that get his attention.
 

Something kept bouncing around in my head as I was cleaning up the driveway this afternoon. What these last two MBB seasons have felt like was how it felt down the stretch of the Les Steckel year of Viking football. At some point, as much as you wanted them to win another game, it was increasingly unlikely they would...and they didn't. Steckel was fired after only one year--by the person who hired him.

Grant came in the next year and improved the team from 3-13 to 7-9. He also had a lot more to work with: newcomers Chris Doleman and Anthony Carter and the return to health of Ted Brown, Doug Martin, and Tommy Kramer. It's reasonable to ask whether Steckel could have gotten four more wins in 1985 with that much better of roster. Could he have? We'll never know.

After 1984, you could have made the same case to retain Steckel as is being made to retain Johnson now: the sunk cost fallacy, the rash of injuries that depleted the team down the stretch, the opportunity to get high draft picks (Doleman, Ike Holt, etc.) and raid the USFL (Carter in 1985 and Gary Zimmerman in 1986). But Mike Lynn had seen enough. The team was a laughingstock and the brunt of jokes (sound familiar?). There were concerns about attendance (sound familiar?). The team seemed and looked poorly coached (sound familiar?). He didn't want to fuck around and find out. Sometimes you have to be active and control your own destiny instead of being passive and let the ball play you, so to speak. Of course, it didn't hurt that he had Grant in the bullpen, who might be willing to come in and stabilize the situation, which he ultimately was.

The difference between that and this is that with those Vikings, Lynn was nipping something in the bud before it got too bad. The Vikes were relevant, but not every team in the league was in those days, and he didn't want us to become one of those. Gopher basketball, of course, is way past relevant, so Coyle is dealing with a once-healthy stock that's only worth a few cents now.

Would Steckel have won 6 or 7 games in 1985 with the better, healthier roster? Maybe. Does it matter? No. The Vikings organization cared enough to do something, and their treatment of Les or their commitment to their sunk cost were way down the list of things they were concerned about.
 



Allshade said:
I hear what you and most everyone is saying. I get your reasoning. But I believe CBJ will get treated a lot like Whalen. Otherwise, there will be a political and optics nightmare, and I believe that issue will take priority.

You or someone like u said I was ridiculous a month ago when I suggested Christie might want out of his LOI. Lo and behold it was Evans, not Christie. Sometimes the ridiculous happens.
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Whalen won 9 games in the B1G in year 1 and 5 in year 2 and had recruiting success to buy her time.

Ben has the worst B1G team in 20 years and his biggest recruiting hope just bolted. If he had 14 combined conference wins this isn't a discussion.

For there to be any political or optics issue people have to still care. If they drag this out past next year no one will be left to give a damn.
 
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Bad Gopher said:
Something kept bouncing around in my head as I was cleaning up the driveway this afternoon. What these last two MBB seasons have felt like was how it felt down the stretch of the Les Steckel year of Viking football. At some point, as much as you wanted them to win another game, it was increasingly unlikely they would...and they didn't. Steckel was fired after only one year--by the person who hired him.

Grant came in the next year and improved the team from 3-13 to 7-9. He also had a lot more to work with: newcomers Chris Doleman and Anthony Carter and the return to health of Ted Brown, Doug Martin, and Tommy Kramer. It's reasonable to ask whether Steckel could have gotten four more wins in 1985 with that much better of roster. Could he have? We'll never know.

After 1984, you could have made the same case to retain Steckel as is being made to retain Johnson now: the sunk cost fallacy, the rash of injuries that depleted the team down the stretch, the opportunity to get high draft picks (Doleman, Ike Holt, etc.) and raid the USFL (Carter in 1985 and Gary Zimmerman in 1986). But Mike Lynn had seen enough. The team was a laughingstock and the brunt of jokes (sound familiar?). There were concerns about attendance (sound familiar?). The team seemed and looked poorly coached (sound familiar?). He didn't want to fuck around and find out. Sometimes you have to be active and control your own destiny instead of being passive and let the ball play you, so to speak. Of course, it didn't hurt that he had Grant in the bullpen, who might be willing to come in and stabilize the situation, which he ultimately was.

The difference between that and this is that with those Vikings, Lynn was nipping something in the bud before it got too bad. The Vikes were relevant, but not every team in the league was in those days, and he didn't want us to become one of those. Gopher basketball, of course, is way past relevant, so Coyle is dealing with a once-healthy stock that's only worth a few cents now.

Would Steckel have won 6 or 7 games in 1985 with the better, healthier roster? Maybe. Does it matter? No. The Vikings organization cared enough to do something, and their treatment of Les or their commitment to their sunk cost were way down the list of things they were concerned about.
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That's a good post, BG. And while it is all relatable to our situation today, one phrase dwarfs everything else in comparison. " ... he had Grant in the bullpen."
 

Dakota2 said:
That's a good post, BG. And while it is all relatable to our situation today, one phrase dwarfs everything else in comparison. " ... he had Grant in the bullpen."
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...although, if I recall correctly, Lynn fired Steckel not knowing whether he could convince Bud to come out of retirement. It wasn't simple. Grant had recommended Les for the job. If Lynn had approached Bud about replacing Steckel, he might have told him to give Les another year, another chance. Lynn almost needed to create the crisis first to get Grant to feel like he needed to save the day.

I thought about this as I was typing it: who do we have that would see the U in distress and want to do something about it? When I ask the question, the answer is always alumni. Flip Saunders is dead. Ryan is no Flip. Dutcher or Medved, on the other hand...
 

roadrunner said:
Let's face it. This basketball program has been neglected for a long time. The antiquated arena, the hopeful but inexperienced coach hires, the AD's seeming indifference, the non-existent NIL money. You can't lay that ALL on Ben Johnson. Still, SOMETHING needs to happen to put some life back into Dinkytown.
My two fixes. 1) Announce plans for the building of a new, on-campus basketball arena. Hire a design firm like Ryan or JLG to draw it up. If it takes 3-5 years to build, well, it's something to look forward to anyway. 2) Follow the hockey program and build a homegrown culture, recruiting almost exclusively from Minnesota. Hell, if you're going to lose every game, why not at least give local kids a stage for their talents. We can all support that.
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So who is going to finance this "new, on-campus arena" when the Athlete's Village is still not paid for?
 

I'm actually surprised more people aren't throwing Brewster's name around when talking about the current situation. At the moment the Johnson hire is looking a lot like the Brewster hire in football, the question is whether or not Johnson can turn it around in the up coming off season.

Going to be a very interesting off season. Payne has the look of a solid piece to build around but the overall mix for 23-24 is going to have to be different for any sort of improvement to happen.
 


howeda7 said:
Whalen won 9 games in the B1G in year 1 and 5 in year 2 and had recruiting success to buy her time.

Ben has the worst B1G team in 20 years and his biggest recruiting hope just bolted. If he had 14 combined conference wins this isn't a discussion.

For their to be any political or optics issue people have to still care. If they drag this out past next year no one will be left to give a damn.
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Great post. First bolded part: I completely agree. Even last year’s team was easy to root for and provided enough moments where it was like “yeah cool I can see where this is going.” But it’s like the train went completely off the tracks this year and it feels different.

Second bolded part: also agree. I shutter imagining what this Board and the Barn are going to be like if we’re headed for another last place finish at this time next year.
 


cjbfbp said:
If he keeps the core together (Garcia, Payne, JOJ, Henley, Carrington, and probably Cooper; I hope Battle leaves), brings along two of this year's sit-out guys, keeps Christie, and recruits a couple guys from the portal who have ability, I think they have a chance to hit 8 Big Ten wins.

If they can go 9-2 in the non-conference, that's 17-14 regular season. That might be enough for him to get a 4th year. I certainly could be wrong but I don't think there will be a big exodus at the end of the year if the coach is retained.
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What you outline is true but also seems incredibly unlikely.
 

Bad Gopher said:
...although, if I recall correctly, Lynn fired Steckel not knowing whether he could convince Bud to come out of retirement. It wasn't simple. Grant had recommended Les for the job. If Lynn had approached Bud about replacing Steckel, he might have told him to give Les another year, another chance. Lynn almost needed to create the crisis first to get Grant to feel like he needed to save the day.

I thought about this as I was typing it: who do we have that would see the U in distress and want to do something about it? When I ask the question, the answer is always alumni. Flip Saunders is dead. Ryan is no Flip. Dutcher or Medved, on the other hand...
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Dutcher. He has strong emotional ties to U of M. He has good genes. Dutch Sr. was a seriously good coach and a strong recruiter.
 


UpAndUnder43 said:
Gophers are 348th in point differential.
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There is no data I can see that justifies another season. None. Someone needs to explain the absolute regression in system from last year to this. This isn’t just frustration about losses but putting a team on the floor that is virtually uncompetitive.
 


Holy Man said:
What you outline is true but also seems incredibly unlikely.
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Unlikely, maybe, but not incredibly so. The current freshmen will be much better next year. Christie was always going to have more impact next year than Evans.

Thompson will transfer down. We will have two portal shots and possibly three. I have a feeling Battle is closing out his Gopher career.

If we have three portal picks we get two guards and a post player. Payne can't play 40 minutes and none of the forwards are adequate at the post. Payne needs a backup.

None of the transfers will be high profile guys. If Ben is going to climb out of this hole and survive he will need to score his biggest points ever by picking three portal guys that take big steps forward.

I hope he can do it.
 

Holy Man said:
Time to make a run at Brian. Not likely it works but the number of competent candidates with the requisite emotional tie to this program is barely two.
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Yup. Now's the time.
 

Dakota2 said:
Unlikely, maybe, but not incredibly so. The current freshmen will be much better next year. Christie was always going to have more impact next year than Evans.

Thompson will transfer down. We will have two portal shots and possibly three. I have a feeling Battle is closing out his Gopher career.

If we have three portal picks we get two guards and a post player. Payne can't play 40 minutes and none of the forwards are adequate at the post. Payne needs a backup.

None of the transfers will be high profile guys. If Ben is going to climb out of this hole and survive he will need to score his biggest points ever by picking three portal guys that take big steps forward.

I hope he can do it.
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I hope he can too. I just don’t think so. Portal from the bottom is hard. The awful product on the floor this year reduces my confidence in the coaching. That scares me more than the lack of talent.
 

Holy Man said:
Time to make a run at Brian. Not likely it works but the number of competent candidates with the requisite emotional tie to this program is barely two.
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If we take a run I would favor Dutcher. But I don't think it's in the cards to change coaches yet. For better or worse, Ben will be here next year.

And I believe Ben knows he has another year. You can see it in the obvious message he is sending TT at the far end of the bench. He knows he needs that scholarship for a third portal player.
 

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