OREGON STATE BEAVERS (4-0) vs #9 IOWA HAWKEYES (3-1)
TIME: 7:30pm
TV: ESPNU – Pam Ward and Stephanie White
SERIES: Iowa leads the series 1-0 (Hawkeyes won 90-45 in 1988)
THE NUMBERS
OFFENSE: IOWA: 90.0 PPG, 49.7% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 13.0 TO OREGON STATE: 80.8 PPG, 47.2% FG, 23.8% 3PT, 11.5 TO
DEFENSE: IOWA: 65.6 PPG, 36.7% FG, 28.1% 3PT, 15.4 TO, +12.4 REB MARGIN OREGON STATE: 59.5 PPG, 32.6% FG, 29.4% 3PT, 12.0 TO, +11.8 REB MARGIN
PROJECTED LINEUPS
OREGON STATE BEAVERS
5’11 G Talia von Oelhoffen – 19.5 PPG, 6.3 REB, 3.8 AST, 49.1% FG
6’1 G AJ Marotte – 15.0 PPG, 7.3 REB, 46.0% FG
5’6 G Noelle Mannen – 3.8 PPG, 1.8 REB, 30.8% FG
6’1 G Shalexxus Aaron – 3.3 PPG, 2.5 REB, 33.3% FG
6’9 C Jelena Mitrovic – 8.5 PPG, 8.8 REB, 51.9% FG
IOWA HAWKEYES
6’0 PG Caitlin Clark – 26.8 PPG, 6.4 REB, 6.8 AST, 35.9% 3PT
5’9 G Gabbie Marshall – 4.6 PPG, 30.0% FG
6’0 G Kate Martin – 4.2 PPG, 4.2 REB, 2.6 AST, 36.4% FG
6’1 F McKenna Warnock – 9.8 PPG, 7.0 REB, 42.9% 3PT
6’3 C Monika Czinano – 19.2 PPG, 7.0 REB, 68.4% FG
IOWA PLAYER TO WATCH: F McKenna Warnock
The Hawkeyes have won a game this year where Caitlin Clark was the only scorer in double figures, they’ve won a game where Clark and Czinano were the only two in double figures and they’ve won a game with several players in double figures. In close games, Lisa Bluder needs a third and fourth scorer to turn to. One of those players could and should be McKenna Warnock.
Warnock is a career 43.1% 3pt shooter and 60.3% 2pt shooter. She has the ability to be a double figure contributor, but hasn’t consistently been able to do it. Over her last 32 games, she has scored in double figures 15 times, but has scored six points or less in ten games. Today, Monika Czinano will have her work cut out in the post against a pair of talented centers, so the Hawkeyes will likely need someone else to step up. McKenna Warnock could be the one to do it.
OREGON STATE PLAYER TO WATCH: G Talia von Oelhoffen
Much of the focus in talk of the game this week with Coach Bluder and the players was on the matchup against a pair of talented post players for the Beavers, but von Oelhoffen is the best player on the team. The sophomore was an All-Pac 12 selection last season and was a preseason All-conference selection again this season.
So far this season, Talia is averaging 19.5 points per game, including a 32-point performance against Eastern Washington. She hasn’t shot it well from behind the arc just yet (23.5%), but shot 36.2% from deep last year, so she has the ability to light it up from out there. On top of her scoring, she has 15 assists to seven turnovers in four games, as well as 25 rebounds and a team leading eight steals. Von Oelhoffen will have a big say in how tonight’s game plays out.
KEY MATCHUP: Iowa frontcourt vs Oregon State frontcourt
This will be the Hawkeyes toughest test in the paint area so far this season. The Beavers have two centers that could cause trouble in the contest. 6’9 C Jelena Mitrovic will be in the starting lineup and is five inches taller than anyone on the Iowa roster. Mitrovic likely isn’t going to win the Beavers a game with her scoring, as she has scored in double figures just ten times in 55 career games. However, she is averaging 8.8 rebounds per game and 2.5 blocks per game. Anyone who gets the ball in the lane will have to be aware and get creative with how they put up a shot. Even if she doesn’t block a shot, she can alter it enough to be a miss.
6’2 C Raegan Beers will come off the bench for the Beavers and the true freshman has already made a huge impact in just four games. She is averaging 32.8 points per 40 minutes and 16.9 rebounds per 40, including 7.7 offensive rebounds. The main concern for the Hawkeyes with Beers will be keeping her from giving Oregon State extra possessions.
Monika Czinano, Addison O’Grady and Hannah Stuelke will have to put together a good effort on defense and on the glass to make sure that Mitrovic and Beers don’t have big nights. Iowa is ranked 3rd in the country in defensive rebounding, grabbing 83.3% of available rebounds. That will be tested tonight.
LISA BLUDER TALKS OREGON STATE
“We know it’s going to be a pro Oregon State crowd. They’re only about 80 miles away, so they’re going to have a good crowd.”
“I have a connection with Scott Rueck. He was my assistant for Pan American Games, so we have that connection. I know how good of a coach he is. He plans for games very well. Caitlin (Clark) visited there, so there’s that connection. Jelena (Mitrovic) the 6’9 center visited here, so we know her fairly well.”
“Sometimes they play them together and they’re really big when they play them together. Coach Jensen was trying to find a stepstool, so somebody could step on it and try to shoot overtop of them. She’s (Mitrovic) a legitimate 6’9. I’m just trying to tell the team; you cannot turn and just shoot a jump shot over her. You’ve got to be creative with your post moves. You’re not going to be able to shoot over her. We think we can be up tempo against them.”
“These are things that you want to do when your program gets national respect. You don’t get invited to this tournament unless you’re a Nike school and a top ranked Nike school. We’re thrilled to be able to represent our university at this tournament.”
THE PICK
The Oregon State Beavers make the short trip up I-5 to the Phil Knight Legacy with a 4-0 record and although they have played a couple of close games, all have come against Quad 4 teams. Hawaii has been their toughest opponent so far and they are ranked 162nd in the NET rankings.
On the other hand, the Hawkeyes have already faced three games against teams in the Quad 1 or 2 range, so they have been tested and pushed early. That could come into play, as Oregon State will be getting their first real challenge of the season.
Delving into a couple of “advanced stats”, the Beavers come in ranked 10th in the country in 2pt shooting (59.3%), but the Hawkeyes are very similar, ranking 6th at 60.1% from 2pt range. Oregon State is 30th in points per 100 possessions (110.4), while Iowa ranks 21st (114.0) in the same category. Warren Nolan projects the Hawkeyes to come out with a 76-69 victory, but those two stats lead one to believe that 145 total points could be too low.
Iowa is averaging 77.0 possessions per game and Oregon State is averaging 73.2. While pace numbers are a little skewed early in the year, that would have ranked 12th and 57th a year ago.
The Beavers come in shooting just 23.8% from behind the three-point line, which ranks way down at 310th in the country, however they have a couple of players that have the ability to get going from long range. G AJ Marotte and G Lily Hansford are viable options (combined 35.5% this year), as is the aforementioned Talia von Oelhoffen. Marotte is third in scoring and rebounding on the team, while Hansford is averaging 6.8 points and 2.8 rebounds off the bench.
An interesting wildcard in the matchup is Arizona transfer G Bendu Yeaney. She made her season debut against Prairie View A&M and logged seven points and six rebounds in 18 minutes on the floor. It’s another added piece to a team that already goes about 8 or 9 players deep.
Everyone women’s college basketball fan is looking ahead to a potential Iowa vs UConn matchup on ABC Sunday afternoon, but the Hawkeyes have business to take care tonight. The Oregon State Beavers are more than capable of taking down Iowa, especially if they can get on the offensive glass and get some second chance points.
This game is hard to predict because the Hawkeyes have put together several different performances so far this season and Oregon State has yet to be challenged this season. Iowa played better on ball defense against Belmont, but offensively, they are still looking to improve on their consistency.
I’ll take the Hawkeyes to win against a Beavers team facing their first ranked opponent of the year, but it could very well be a four-quarter battle. IOWA 85 OREGON STATE 79