I'm gonna say 20 wins for a tournament invite

Face The Facts

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Normally Selection Sunday does this, but in absence of a thread, I'll stick my neck out a bit.

Generally around a 0.500 Big Ten record gets you in. Last year two teams with 9-11 records got in. I think the Big Ten was viewed as strong and deeper last year, but it's not a slouch this year with the strongest conference RPI. From what I see from the Gophers NET and RPI so far.

Gophers currently at 8-1 /1-1 in Big Ten. With 21 games left, I think we need 12 more wins and we'd be safe going into the BTT.

Easiest 7 (need 7 wins)
December 14, 2021 (Tuesday) Home Texas A&M - Corpus Christi - Won

December 22, 2021 (Wednesday) Home Green Bay
December 29, 2021 (Wednesday) Home Alcorn State
January 22, 2022 (Saturday) Home Rutgers
February 9, 2022 (Wednesday) Away Nebraska
February 12, 2022 (Saturday) Home Penn State
March 2, 2022 (Wednesday) Away Maryland

Middle 7 (need 5 with no steals)
January 9, 2022 (Sunday) Away Indiana

January 16, 2022 (Sunday) Home Iowa
January 19, 2022 (Wednesday) Away Penn State
February 6, 2022 (Sunday) Away Iowa
February 19, 2022 (Saturday) Home Northwestern
February 27, 2022 (Sunday) Home Indiana
March 6, 2022 (Sunday) Away Northwestern

Opportunities to steal (Need zero, opportunities to steal)
January 2, 2022 (Sunday) Home Illinois
January 12, 2022 (Wednesday) Away Michigan State

January 27, 2022 (Thursday) Home Ohio State
January 30, 2022 (Sunday) Away Wisconsin
February 2, 2022 (Wednesday) Home Purdue
February 15, 2022 (Tuesday) Away Ohio State
February 23, 2022 (Wednesday) Home Wisconsin

I don't know each of these teams well enough to say what appears easy will be easy or what appears tough will be tough in March, but from this, the Gophers would need to win 5 more road games or steal some at home against WI, Purdue, OSU, etc.
 
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short ornery norwegian

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I thought I saw a tweet this (Sunday) morning that at least one website is now showing the Gophers as a potential bubble team.

I don't pretend to understand the whole "Quad 1" stuff, but getting road wins over major college programs looks good on the resume.

having said that, a lot of season left. the Gophers have to stay healthy. There are good coaches out there who will try to come up with schemes to counteract what the Gophers are doing.

But - just the fact we are talking seriously about an NIT or even NCAA berth for this team is quite a turnaround from what people were predicting over the summer.
 

jovs

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Depending on the wins, a 9-11 B1G record could possibly get them in even without a win in the B1G tournament.

I also think that at least one win against Wisconsin is almost expected at this point.
 

Lakers612

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I think the right combination of 9 wins might be enough. 10 guarantees it.
 

UpAndUnder43

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How many times do we play Nebraska, northwestern and Penn St?
 



PhillyGopher

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Thanks for taking this on - will be fun to track over the season
 

Some guy

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Not sure 9-11 does it unless some of the 9 are “quality wins”

better for resume to beat Purdue and lose to northwestern then the other way around.
I think 10-10 is probably the need.
9-11 probably need 2-3 big ten tourney wins.

not as many quality wins to be had as last year.
Only 8 current Quad 1 opportunities left on the schedule.
 

bga1

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I thought I saw a tweet this (Sunday) morning that at least one website is now showing the Gophers as a potential bubble team.

I don't pretend to understand the whole "Quad 1" stuff, but getting road wins over major college programs looks good on the resume.

having said that, a lot of season left. the Gophers have to stay healthy. There are good coaches out there who will try to come up with schemes to counteract what the Gophers are doing.

But - just the fact we are talking seriously about an NIT or even NCAA berth for this team is quite a turnaround from what people were predicting over the summer.
"Have to say healthy" this. I am done thinking that these guys can't do things. If they stay healthy and continue to play like this, they will win a bunch of games. Battle is for real.
 



UpAndUnder43

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Look at this guy. We just beat Michigan on the road and he acts like our only chance is by playing cupcakes.
I asked a sincere question. Didn’t want to check the schedule. Sorry for wondering. Also, Michigan is 6-4. Maybe they are a cupcake?

Looks like we get 4 combined games against them. Which sucks cause if you had 5 or 6 it could lead to a 10-11-12+ conference wins.
 

stocker08

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Not sure 9-11 does it unless some of the 9 are “quality wins”

better for resume to beat Purdue and lose to northwestern then the other way around.
I think 10-10 is probably the need.
9-11 probably need 2-3 big ten tourney wins.

not as many quality wins to be had as last year.
Only 8 current Quad 1 opportunities left on the schedule.

Too early to say....but I'd probably agree with this. Think 9-11 along with two Big Ten tournament wins would get us in. One and it's a sweat on selection sunday.

We already have a few good wins built up. Michigan and Mississippi State are both likely to make the tournament. Both true road games. Princeton is a solid team and has a decent shot to win the Ivy League. Western Kentucky is another good team who could potentially win the C-USA. Did anyone see that they absolutely dismantled Ole Miss 71-48?
 

UpAndUnder43

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Too early to say....but I'd probably agree with this. Think 9-11 along with two Big Ten tournament wins would get us in. One and it's a sweat on selection sunday.

We already have a few good wins built up. Michigan and Mississippi State are both likely to make the tournament. Both true road games. Princeton is a solid team and has a decent shot to win the Ivy League. Western Kentucky is another good team who could potentially win the C-USA. Did anyone see that they absolutely dismantled Ole Miss 71-48?
Winning @ Michigan is really nice but we need them to not suck. Their only P6 win is Nebraska. They may turn it on and challenge for the B1G title, its early.
 

stocker08

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I asked a sincere question. Didn’t want to check the schedule. Sorry for wondering. Also, Michigan is 6-4. Maybe they are a cupcake?

Looks like we get 4 combined games against them. Which sucks cause if you had 5 or 6 it could lead to a 10-11-12+ conference wins.

Michigan's four losses are to teams (Seton Hall, Arizona, UNC, Minnesota) with a combined 32-4 record. UNC is probably ranked again this upcoming week....and the Gophers deserve to be as well.

Losing Wagner and Livers was obviously a blow....but Dickinson is probably a top 10-15 player in the nation. Having Brooks return was big. And they have two absolute stud freshman in Houstan and Diabate. They'll be fine.
 



stocker08

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Winning @ Michigan is really nice but we need them to not suck. Their only P6 win is Nebraska. They may turn it on and challenge for the B1G title, its early.

They've had a brutal early season schedule. They'll finish over .500 in conference and be at little risk of making the tournament.
 

Face The Facts

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Here is a breakdown of the Quadrants.

Quadrant 1 (Q1): Home (1-30)Neutral (1-50)Away (1-75)
Quadrant 2 (Q2): Home (31-75)Neutral (51-100)Away (76-135)
Quadrant 3 (Q3): Home (76-160)Neutral (101-200)Away (136-240)
Quadrant 4 (Q4): Home (161-358)Neutral (201-358)Away (241-358)

So if you beat a team on the road who is ranked in the top 75 for NET. That is a quadrant 1 win.
If you win at home against a #75 team, that is only a quadrant 2 win.

Key thing is during the season, we want our road win opponents to stay as highly ranked as possible.

Regarding total Big Ten wins, 10-10 I strongly feel we would be IN with no questions asked going into the Big Ten Tournament.

9-11 could do it, but I'd say it's too early to make any guarantees on it.

Key victories can help, but I don't think it makes too much difference. I think it pretty much counts as a quadrant one win. At this point we are 2-1 in quadrant 1 wins.

If you finish with 20 wins and go 10-10 in the Big Ten, it doesn't really matter how you got there, you just need that many. If you beat some Quadrant 1 teams, but lost to some quadrant 3 teams or if you sweep Quadrant 2-4 and lose most og your quadrant 1, I don't think it matters much if you go 0.500 Big Ten because at that point you are pretty much above the bubble.

If you are less than 0.500, then the arguments take place of whether a big win is more important than a bad loss.

One more thing, the committee heavily references NET for creating their quadrants, but a team's own RPI number to me still matters. In the end, if you finish top 50 for RPI in a major conference, you don't miss. Our RPI will drop as we play some lower ranked competition, but having a good RPI right now sure doesn't hurt. Ultimately, beat the teams you are supposed to including Tuesday.
 
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MennoSota

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These types of threads make me laugh. I couldn't care less about speculation regarding the Dance. I just am enjoying watching this Gopher team play. They are fun to watch. I can hardly remember when I last thought a Gopher team was fundamentally sound both defensively and offensively.
Post season thoughts just take away from enjoying the moment.
 

Face The Facts

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These types of threads make me laugh. I couldn't care less about speculation regarding the Dance. I just am enjoying watching this Gopher team play. They are fun to watch. I can hardly remember when I last thought a Gopher team was fundamentally sound both defensively and offensively.
Post season thoughts just take away from enjoying the moment.
I get it.

This team is fun just to watch play this year. The idea they are even in contention is a big surprise right now. But for those who want to play along and watch along this way, they have that option.
 


Some guy

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These types of threads make me laugh. I couldn't care less about speculation regarding the Dance. I just am enjoying watching this Gopher team play. They are fun to watch. I can hardly remember when I last thought a Gopher team was fundamentally sound both defensively and offensively.
Post season thoughts just take away from enjoying the moment.
If threads like this make you laugh that’s either why you are here (to laugh) or a message board isn’t a place for you
 

Wally

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These types of threads make me laugh. I couldn't care less about speculation regarding the Dance.

Did you speculate on the success of Ben Johnson?

Why did you care to do that?
Hmmm
 

MennoSota

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Did you speculate on the success of Ben Johnson?

Why did you care to do that?
Hmmm
If I recall I said to give Ben a chance.
Mostly, I think Coyle is a snake.
 

ethomasp31

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I asked a sincere question. Didn’t want to check the schedule. Sorry for wondering. Also, Michigan is 6-4. Maybe they are a cupcake?

Looks like we get 4 combined games against them. Which sucks cause if you had 5 or 6 it could lead to a 10-11-12+ conference wins.
I believe you did ask a sincere question. In all seriousness....I think it will be difficult for the Gophers to make the tournament. They need to get to at least 9 B1G wins. That will be difficult. They also need Michigan, Mississippi State, WKU and other teams we have played to do well. They lack depth and size and in the B1G those are things you need.

Regardless....I’m excited for the future. One thing people aren’t talking about....I’m not sure they will be better next season than they are this year....even though we will be gaining some much needed younger talent. Replacing Willis, Loewe, Stephens and Sutherlin isn’t going to be as easy as we might think. they have experience and know how to play basketball. When they are gone....I’m going to miss watching them play.

On a side note....I appreciate you being more positive. I know you are a huge Gopher fan and if i came across as questioning your loyalties I apologize. I guess I felt the negativity from many posters wasn’t fair to Coach Johnson and wasn’t respectful to the players who made the decision to take the risk and come and play for the U. I can also understand your frustration if you felt the hire wasn’t the correct choice.
 
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Otis

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These types of threads make me laugh. I couldn't care less about speculation regarding the Dance. I just am enjoying watching this Gopher team play. They are fun to watch. I can hardly remember when I last thought a Gopher team was fundamentally sound both defensively and offensively.
Post season thoughts just take away from enjoying the moment.
Nice post Menno! This is still pre-Xmas. Plenty of time for the Gophers to be exposed for lack of talent.
So far, it appears they won’t be exposed for bad play. Which is refreshing! Here is to their continued success. Just sit back and enjoy the ride!
February is for predictions on the post season. Wait to open your presents.
 

Zeppelin Gopher

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These types of threads make me laugh. I couldn't care less about speculation regarding the Dance. I just am enjoying watching this Gopher team play. They are fun to watch. I can hardly remember when I last thought a Gopher team was fundamentally sound both defensively and offensively.
Post season thoughts just take away from enjoying the moment.
It's a fan message board. If speculating about the season bothers you then this probably isn't the place for you to spend time.
 



hungan1

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Take it one game at a time, avoid season-ending injuries, and get the bench ready to contribute big time to the current seven-man rotation. Twenty-one remaining games is a long season.
 







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