Illinois Point Spread

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Otis said:
I am impressed with the ball velocity Max has shown on his passes when needed to throw into tight windows. Combined with wits to know what kind of pass is required for the situation makes him very good.

He could be a Brock Purdy type pickup for someone.
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Odd you would say that because I was thinking Max VS AK is like Purdy VS Ponder.
 


wondering about injuries impacting the point spread. found this on an Illinois page at "SB Nation" - written after the Oregon game.

Any loss is bad, but a loss that results in a handful of your players being injured is bad news.

Wide receiver Malik Elzy was banged up, falling to the ground following a huddle, but did return to action in the second half.

Defensive back Tyler Strain suffered what looked to be a left ankle injury and was replaced by Jaheim Clarke.

Defensive back Kaleb Patterson suffered what appeared to be a right shin injury, and did not return to action.

Bielema and his staff had to rely on depth after losing two defensive backs who sit toward the top of his depth chart.
Running back Kaden Feagin, who was injured in practice ahead of the Purdue game, is out for the rest of the season.
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an update this week makes it sound as if most of the players who got banged up against Oregon should be back this week. DB Tyler Strain was more doubtful. another WR was being evaluated for concussion protocol. But Illinois has definitely had some injury issues in the secondary. I will note that the Update was written by an Illinois student reporter.

(imagine - updates during the week on injured players. what a concept. Ryan Burns will be weeping with jealousy.)
 



short ornery norwegian said:
wondering about injuries impacting the point spread. found this on an Illinois page at "SB Nation" - written after the Oregon game.

Any loss is bad, but a loss that results in a handful of your players being injured is bad news.

Wide receiver Malik Elzy was banged up, falling to the ground following a huddle, but did return to action in the second half.

Defensive back Tyler Strain suffered what looked to be a left ankle injury and was replaced by Jaheim Clarke.

Defensive back Kaleb Patterson suffered what appeared to be a right shin injury, and did not return to action.

Bielema and his staff had to rely on depth after losing two defensive backs who sit toward the top of his depth chart.
Running back Kaden Feagin, who was injured in practice ahead of the Purdue game, is out for the rest of the season.
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an update this week makes it sound as if most of the players who got banged up against Oregon should be back this week. DB Tyler Strain was more doubtful. another WR was being evaluated for concussion protocol. But Illinois has definitely had some injury issues in the secondary. I will note that the Update was written by an Illinois student reporter.

(imagine - updates during the week on injured players. what a concept. Ryan Burns will be weeping with jealousy.)
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In his press conference, Bielema sounded as though he hoped most of those guys (not Feagin) should be ready for the Gopher game. The WR with a concussion” (Pat Bryant) is Illinois’ top offensive threat, a Daniel Jackson type WR, only 3 inches taller. Bielema says Bryant is going to practice later in the week and, hopefully, should be ready to go. We’ll see. I think the Gophs, if they play a complete game using the full offensive play book, can beat a full-strength Illinois. Go Gophers.
 


matt said:
The Gophers are unranked (not even receiving votes) and are road favorites against a ranked team. Anyone know the last time that happened?
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That's a great question.

I keep waiting for that point spread to move. Don't the gamblers say that "the sharps" usually bet later on?
 

RememberMurray said:
That's a great question.

I keep waiting for that point spread to move. Don't the gamblers say that "the sharps" usually bet later on?
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The point spread has already moved
This is the spread after the movement
 




matt said:
The Gophers are unranked (not even receiving votes) and are road favorites against a ranked team. Anyone know the last time that happened?
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Not even sure how you would go about finding that info but I doubt it happens very often.
 

RememberMurray said:
You're saying no more movement is possible, or likely, or allowed?
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It’s possible but lines don’t often move twice

The game opened with Illinois favored but due to betting action moved to the current spread. I haven’t seen a line move significantly twice very often. Obviously still possible but not probable
 

Some guy said:
It’s possible but lines don’t often move twice

The game opened with Illinois favored but due to betting action moved to the current spread. I haven’t seen a line move significantly twice very often. Obviously still possible but not probable
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Okay, got it. Thanks for clarifying for me. I'm not a bettor so I follow this stuff only casually.

That being the case, the "sharps" or the "smart money" bettors have already weighed in, then.
 



Some guy said:
It’s possible but lines don’t often move twice

The game opened with Illinois favored but due to betting action moved to the current spread. I haven’t seen a line move significantly twice very often. Obviously still possible but not probable
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Assume at this point it would take some major injury news or something along those lines to shift the line drastically.
 


To recap: betting opened, logically, with Illinois favored to win by 2.5 (3.0 on some sites). Within 48 hours, line shifted to Minnesota being favored by 3.0. This is a huge shift. Also a counter-intuitive shift: Unranked (not close to being ranked) Minnesota is now favored by bettors to beat #24 ranked Illinois ... at Illinois's home field (where Illinois is 5-0 the year) ... even though Bielema is 10-0 against the Gophers in his HC career. The betting line doesn't make sense, unless there is some reasonably reliable inside information about a key Illinois player or players not being available. WR Pat Bryant not available (concussion)? Perhaps a key DB or two down for Illinois? Maybe Altmeyer not at 100%? #1 RB Feagin is already out for season; perhaps #2 RB McCrary is nicked up?

Personally, I think the 2024 Gophs are very capable of beating Illinois even if Illinois is at full strength. Need to start fast on offense and keep foot on the accelerator; play a complete game on defense; and win the turnover battle. Go Gophers!
 

I tend to believe that the stellar play of Koi Perich is playing a part in the current betting line. Illinois is going to have a tough time making downfield throws.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Betting opens with Illinois a 2.5 point favorite, and the over/under at 44.5. Game at Illinois, so pretty much a toss-up game (neutral field) for betting purposes. Gophers and Illini are close to each other statistically in many categories, but we seem to be on the upswing. Becoming bowl eligible and simultaneously smashing the Bert Curse? Lot of incentive! Go Gophers!
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Actually seeing the line moving up -- Gophers -3. This will be a tough game - we never seem to do well lately vs. Illinois and their hated coach but we need it bad to continue the momentum!
 

3:45 pm on Friday. Betting line has held firm at Gophers by 3 points. Why are the Gophs favored (by bettors) over a ranked opponent? My guess: Illinois WR Pat Bryant remains in the concussion protocol and won’t see action tomorrow. Whatever the reason is—Go Gophers!
 

Gophergrandpa said:
3:45 pm on Friday. Betting line has held firm at Gophers by 3 points. Why are the Gophs favored (by bettors) over a ranked opponent? My guess: Illinois WR Pat Bryant remains in the concussion protocol and won’t see action tomorrow. Whatever the reason is—Go Gophers!
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We have the more talented team with or without Bryant, that’s why.
 





Scottsdale Gopher said:

The original Michigan / Oregon line was strange.
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Gophergrandpa said:
Beyond strange. Oregon will destroy Michigan. Gophers’ move still looks big, but not as unusual as I thought, when you put it in context of other games this week. Thanks for the global view.
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A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
Who the heck set it at 3?
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If my memory is correct, that opening line for Oregon-Michigan is from last summer, long before the season started.
 

matt said:
The Gophers are unranked (not even receiving votes) and are road favorites against a ranked team. Anyone know the last time that happened?
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Bettors are obviously much better at evaluating teams than whoever votes in those stupid polls
 

Wally said:
Bettors are obviously much better at evaluating teams than whoever votes in those stupid polls
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When your money is on the line ... sometimes you think a little more logically.

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A company once setup a betting pool of sorts where you could predict the success of a given project. If you were right you made more money, wrong, you made less money (every person was given a free amount to bet with).

They found that if they polled and asked each employee / department head they'd hear rose colored predictions about every project.

The betting pool on the other hand showed a MUCH wider variation on projections and was almost always "correct", even bets placed by people outside of a given department's project were able to predict outcomes reliably ....
 

2nd Degree Gopher said:
If my memory is correct, that opening line for Oregon-Michigan is from last summer, long before the season started.
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The original poster on X referenced that it was a "Game of the Year line" and that all the lines came from DraftKings. I'm not a bettor, so I'm not clear on what that means... Perhaps there are certain games that books post earlier than others? Certainly Oregon - Michigan was a game of interest/importance before the season.
 

Scottsdale Gopher said:
The original poster on X referenced that it was a "Game of the Year line" and that all the lines came from DraftKings. I'm not a bettor, so I'm not clear on what that means... Perhaps there are certain games that books post earlier than others? Certainly Oregon - Michigan was a game of interest/importance before the season.
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Quick search shows that Oregon was installed as a 3 point favorite as far back as May 27.
 

2nd Degree Gopher said:
Quick search shows that Oregon was installed as a 3 point favorite as far back as May 27.
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Well anyone that jumped on that line for Oregon was probably giddy about their prospects once both teams started playing :)

Crazy to set a betting line on a game being played in November in late May.
 

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