Illinois Point Spread

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FredCoxRocks said:
On Brosmer's TD pass underneath to Jackson (the one on the open end of the stadium), I thought to myself "there is no way Kaliakmanis makes that throw". Then the memory of that pass to the TE in the Illinois game entered my mind. Ugh.
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Yeah there were several yesterday that were beyond AK, either they would have (almost certainly) been late ... or wonky touch or over their head.
 

Jack jones said:
If you have never been to Illinois for a game, realize the swirling winds will affect the passing game. For certain we will have to run the ball to win. Which means we have to win the battle up front.
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Oh noes ...
 

I'm a pretty big fan of Parker Fleming's work at collegefootballinsiders.com. Here's his preview of the game: https://www.collegefootballinsiders.com/matchup_preview/?team1=Minnesota&team2=Illinois

Basically a coin flip, with home field providing an advantage in his model. It looks like Illinois has a suspect defense, though some of that might be driven by last week's performance. Bielema is sure to test whether our run fits have improved since the Iowa game. Michigan is the only team that stuck with the run against the Gophers since then.
 
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Some guy said:
Yes but that stat includes 2-6 Kansas as a ranked opponent
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I agree. Just like currently the gophers have played no ranked teams if you use that.

Regardless I think Illinois is the best team the Gophers have faced this year so far. Its a winnable game but we'll need to play very well.
 

Bielema will run blitz against the Gopher O on early downs just like he has in all prior games and just like several other teams have done this year. The Gophs will again need to establish a short passing game to win and the O-line will need to anticipate all the twists and stunts coming from different angles. If they do that, the D holds up reasonably well, and they play a clean special teams and turnover game, the Gophs win.
 




Jack jones said:
If you have never been to Illinois for a game, realize the swirling winds will affect the passing game. For certain we will have to run the ball to win. Which means we have to win the battle up front.
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Current forecast is 5 to 10mph so hopefully not a big deal.
 





FredCoxRocks said:
On Brosmer's TD pass underneath to Jackson (the one on the open end of the stadium), I thought to myself "there is no way Kaliakmanis makes that throw". Then the memory of that pass to the TE in the Illinois game entered my mind. Ugh.
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The delicate lob to Spencer is the throw AK could never make! Practically a lob for a dunk!
 

Otis said:
The delicate lob to Spencer is the throw AK could never make! Practically a lob for a dunk!
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I think we can safely put last year in the rear view mirror. Early in the year there were people trying to compare Brosmer and AK....at this point those comparisons are pointless because Brosmer is 10x the QB Athan is/was.

Athan has gotten a little better this year but is still pretty much the same guy he was last year.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I think we can safely put last year in the rear view mirror. Early in the year there were people trying to compare Brosmer and AK....at this point those comparisons are pointless because Brosmer is 10x the QB Athan is/was.

Athan has gotten a little better this year but is still pretty much the same guy he was last year.
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I am impressed with the ball velocity Max has shown on his passes when needed to throw into tight windows. Combined with wits to know what kind of pass is required for the situation makes him very good.

He could be a Brock Purdy type pickup for someone.
 



Panthadad2 said:
Bielema will run blitz against the Gopher O on early downs just like he has in all prior games and just like several other teams have done this year. The Gophs will again need to establish a short passing game to win and the O-line will need to anticipate all the twists and stunts coming from different angles. If they do that, the D holds up reasonably well, and they play a clean special teams and turnover game, the Gophs win.
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Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

Brosmer is the best gopher QB we've seen in a while, when he is afforded enough time to go through his progressions and make a smart throw.

He unfortunately does not have the athleticism to extend plays when forced out of the pocket, at least not consistently, so that is likely the primary objective of any smart defensive coordinator. Force Brosmer out of the pocket consistently, and our offensive output drops massively.
 



Otis said:
I am impressed with the ball velocity Max has shown on his passes when needed to throw into tight windows. Combined with wits to know what kind of pass is required for the situation makes him very good.

He could be a Brock Purdy type pickup for someone.
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purdy has far far better mobility than max. He's a great college QB. Only wish we would've had him for 2-3 years instead
 

Taji34 said:
Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

Brosmer is the best gopher QB we've seen in a while, when he is afforded enough time to go through his progressions and make a smart throw.

He unfortunately does not have the athleticism to extend plays when forced out of the pocket, at least not consistently, so that is likely the primary objective of any smart defensive coordinator. Force Brosmer out of the pocket consistently, and our offensive output drops massively.
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no doubt this will be bielema's strategy. People forget that last year we were rolling in the first half to the tune of:
6 plays 65 yards TD
9 plays 75 yards TD
13 plays 53 yards FG
Kneel

2nd half
4 plays -3 yards FG
5 plays 5 yards punt
3 plays 4 yards punt
4 plays 16 yards punt
5 plays 17 yards punt
2 plays 34 yards TD
3 plays 6 yards punt
4 plays 0 yards downs

So what changed? Jerzhan Newton (their stud DL) was suspended for the first half because of a targeting call the prior week and he was in the backfield on almost every play in the 2nd half. if they can get home with 4, we will struggle. If they have to do it blitzing, Max is much more comfortable with hot reads and progressions and I think we'll be fine.
 



Tighter than tight game. BB will employ some trickery. It could come down to a field goal or OT.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Illinois and Purdue combined for nearly 700 yards of passing in Champaign....so guessing that maybe the forward pass will still work there in spite of what the always positive and upbeat Jack Jones has to say. :)
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I’ve been there 3 times. Late fall there are always swirling winds because of the way the athletic complex is in relation to the field. Sorry, I won’t be going.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I agree. Just like currently the gophers have played no ranked teams if you use that.

Regardless I think Illinois is the best team the Gophers have faced this year so far. It’s a winnable game but we'll need to play very well.
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i think Illinois is about the same as everyone else other than the top 4 as evidenced by a 1 point win over awful Purdue and an overtime win against an okay but not great Nebraska team.

Against FBS opponents they have a aggregate score of +6
They beat 2-6 Kansas by 6
Beat 5-3 Nebraska by 7 in overtime
Bear 1-6 Purdue by 1
Lost by 14 to #4 Penn state
Lost by 29 to #1.

When the most impressive thing you’ve done is lose to a team by 14, you are not a great team.

Coin flip game. I agree the gophers have to play well.
 

upnorthkid said:
no doubt this will be bielema's strategy. People forget that last year we were rolling in the first half to the tune of:
6 plays 65 yards TD
9 plays 75 yards TD
13 plays 53 yards FG
Kneel

2nd half
4 plays -3 yards FG
5 plays 5 yards punt
3 plays 4 yards punt
4 plays 16 yards punt
5 plays 17 yards punt
2 plays 34 yards TD
3 plays 6 yards punt
4 plays 0 yards downs

So what changed? Jerzhan Newton (their stud DL) was suspended for the first half because of a targeting call the prior week and he was in the backfield on almost every play in the 2nd half. if they can get home with 4, we will struggle. If they have to do it blitzing, Max is much more comfortable with hot reads and progressions and I think we'll be fine.
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Exactly, Newton took over the game when he got to play in the second half. Illinois is very good this year, but I don’t believe it has a dominant player like Newton …
 

Jack jones said:
I’ve been there 3 times. Late fall there are always swirling winds because of the way the athletic complex is in relation to the field. Sorry, I won’t be going.
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So you are saying the swirling winds are only a thing late Fall?
 



GopherEnEspaña said:
Bert's Illinois teams have always done a good job at punching us in the mouth. This is going to be a tough game.
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Agree. I think we are physical enough for the bottom half of the conference, but teams like Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin (to whom I see us as pretty much equal in raw physical ability) just seem to lay the lumber harder (and more suddenly) than we do.

About the only thing I miss from the Kill era is LB play under him (and Claeys) seemed more "forward" and disruptive as opposed to read and react. But that's pretty much the only thing I miss.
 



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