I can't guarantee success with Pitino, but I can guarantee failure for at least the next three seasons with a new coach.
I do like your post but I really don't understand this at all, people often look at Basketball like it is Football, a good and I stress good coach can have success by year 3. What I can tell you is that 2-16, 11-7, and ill be generous 5-13 is a failure the last 3 years. I am tired of hiring and firing as well but there is no way in any form that you can call the last 5 years successful or even adequate. This is a results driven business and he has failed. Don't think that the higher ups are not looking at maybe 8k butts in the seat for Northerwestern or the small crowd that will be there Tuesday (I am guessing 7k maybe). This the least interested I can recall the Twin Cities being in the Gophers and it breaks my heart.
You may be correct in stating that by year three of a new coach, they could be expected to win. However, Pitino's third year was by far his worst (considering it was easily his worst roster to start a season), and was mostly due to the roster turnover experienced after losing Tubby's last recruits, and Pitino's desire to get "players that fit his system" on campus, and ultimately being caught in limbo. For God's sake, if I remember correctly, Charles Buggs was on that year 3 team, yikes.
There's no reason to believe that a new coach wouldn't want "his players" too. The clashing of identities generally leads to mediocre on court performance, and to a long rebuilding process. In addition, you can throw away any chance we have with Matthew Hurt and Jalen Suggs with a new coach, BECAUSE we know we're not getting an elite level guy. With RP, there is a CHANCE that he could snag one of those guys, and he has proven effective at getting the next level of in state talent to commit here.
And again, Bakary and Gaston are making this situation look way worse than it really is moving forward. Things will be different with them off the roster next year.
Anyway, outside of whether or not you think Pitino can be a good x's and o's coach, here's all we really have to go on:
2018-19 Roster:
PG - Isaiah Washington
PG - ???
SG - Jamir Harris
SG - Gabe Kalscheur
SG - Dupree McBrayer
SF - Amir Coffey
SF - Michael Hurt
SF - Davonte Fitzgerald
PF - Jordan Murphy
PF - Eric Curry
PF - Jarvis Omersa
C - Daniel Oturu
C - Matz Stockman
I don't know about you, but I'm pretty excited about that roster. It minimizes our reliance on Davonte Fitzgerald, Jamir Harris, and obviously BK and GD will have graduated.. blessed be the day.
I'm nervous to see how IW progresses into next year, but his ball handling and vision are great. Like everyone here, I'm curious to see how much he commits to improving his shot (and selection), and his defense. And obviously, whether or not he transfers.
PG #2 is TBD, but obviously we can't expect to do much if our backup PG is Dupree or Amir. We really need to get a JUCO transfer, grad transfer, or pull a rabbit out of a hat.
Yeah, I do guarantee temporary failure with a new HC, and I'm happy enough with next year's roster in year 6 to see what happens, and what the next recruiting class looks like.
As I've mentioned before, he has a ways to go with x's and o's, and still has to prove himself as a player developer. But we're not getting a coach in here who comes stock with all three facets firmly in place, and RP may very well have 2 of the 3 already.